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2 banks and a mirror


Hooloovoo

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Gonna try something out that i have been thinking about for awhile. N.B...! THIS IS A PAPER TRIAL...! I have a simple rating system (don't want to share any details regarding the rating yet). I will have two banks of 100 pts each. This is what i will do: * Both matches recieves a rating * If any team gets a higher rating than the other (they could get the same rating), i will use bank 1 to back that team * Using bank 2 i will lay the same team * Both backs and lays is 1 point The thinking is as following: Using BetFair i can act bookie by laying. If bank 1 is loosing long term, then bank 2 should be winning long term. This is provided i can get (almost) the same odd for laying as backing. Often in markets with large liquidity, the difference in odds for backing and laying the same event is no more than a tic (e.g. backing: 1.65, laying: 1.66) Provided that bank 1 is a big winner OR a big loser, that difference should have little importance. Commission plays a role here too but that should be marginal. The "worst case scenario" would be that bank 1 (and therefore bank 2) is neither plus nor minus. The rating system is as i said fairly simple so alot of matches could be considered every day. Which is a good thing, because the purpose of all this is to get alot of paper bets done with, i would really need at least 100 bets to point out the direction of this, and to truly tell if a system is good/bad you need, as we all know, thousands of bets. If the rating system is really bad, meaning it turns out to be a big loser, then i just have to use the inverted version of it, mirrored in bank 2, and i'm in profit.... :loon If anyone has any criticism of any kind, please share beacuse i could have missed some very simple basics and if someone can point out to me why this won't work then that person is saving me alot of time

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror Eh? I think I'm a bit confused. You're going to be in a constant loss here mate unless your lay odds are better than your back odds. A 1pt stake on backing Kyoto at 2.80 and laying them at 2.86 would give you a 0.12pts loss if Kyoto win and a break even if Kyoto lose. The only way you could get this to work would be to lay Kyoto at 2.86 and then wait for the odds to get higher to guarantee a profit, similar to what Datapunter is doing in his hunt at the moment, and what is known as 'Arbing'. Unless I've clearly not read your opening message properly then I think you may need to re-think is :\

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror

Eh? I think I'm a bit confused. You're going to be in a constant loss here mate unless your lay odds are better than your back odds. A 1pt stake on backing Kyoto at 2.80 and laying them at 2.86 would give you a 0.12pts loss if Kyoto win and a break even if Kyoto lose. The only way you could get this to work would be to lay Kyoto at 2.86 and then wait for the odds to get higher to guarantee a profit, similar to what Datapunter is doing in his hunt at the moment, and what is known as 'Arbing'. Unless I've clearly not read your opening message properly then I think you may need to re-think is :\
Thanks for your comments mate. I can see from your comments that i have not expressed myself clearly enough. I have a system, and i'm using bank 1 to bet with that system. If the system is showing a loss, then if i would have layed the selections instead, the system would have showed profit, assuming i could get almost the same, or the same odd for laying than for backing, hence the "mirror" term. With these two banks i am NOT trying to make a profit, that is impossible since the lay odds are always a bit higher than the back odds, as you mention. To make profit from difference in prices you must lay low and back high, as DP is trying to do. This is however NOT what i'm trying to do here. As the betting evolves with these banks, bank 1 must take one of 3 paths: * It can show profit * It can break even * It can show a loss If it shows profit, then bank 2 should show a loss. If it breaks even, bank 2 should (roughly) break even as well If it shows loss, then bank 2 should show a profit That is why this is a paper trial, because it's only to see which way to go, if my rating system should back or lay really for profit
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Re: 2 banks and a mirror

wait for the odds to get higher to guarantee a profit' date= similar to what Datapunter is doing in his hunt at the moment, and what is known as 'Arbing'.
As a side note, this is usual trading mate. Arbing is the process of backing different outcomes, at the same time, at enough high prices, at different bookies/exchanges, so that some marginal profit is to be made no matter the outcome of the event.
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Re: 2 banks and a mirror Bank 1: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, BACK Kyoto @ 2.80 (002) Omiya - Urawa, BACK Urawa @ 2.00 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, BACK Xerez @ 1.94 Bank 2: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, LAY Kyoto @ 2.86 (002) Omiya - Urawa, LAY Urawa @ 2.04 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, LAY Xerez @ 1.95

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror Ah ok I got you now, so basically you're testing out your own ratings system here? So you're trying to see whether your selections should be backed in the long term or layed right? And also yeh you're right on the trading thing, I got too cross-eyed by all the figures for my own good loon.gif

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror

Ah ok I got you now, so basically you're testing out your own ratings system here? So you're trying to see whether your selections should be backed in the long term or layed right? And also yeh you're right on the trading thing, I got too cross-eyed by all the figures for my own good loon.gif
You got me exactly right now mate :ok This is only testing
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Re: 2 banks and a mirror Bank 1: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, BACK Kyoto @ 2.80 (002) Omiya - Urawa, BACK Urawa @ 2.00 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, BACK Xerez @ 1.94 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, BACK Lyngby @ 1.65 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, BACK Chester @ 3.65 Bank 2: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, LAY Kyoto @ 2.86 (002) Omiya - Urawa, LAY Urawa @ 2.04 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, LAY Xerez @ 1.95 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, LAY Lyngby @ 1.66 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, LAY Chester @ 3.75 As a side note, West brom and Aston Villa got the same rating so that match is excluded

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror With both Osaka and Cordoba in the lead, things look good for bank 2 :) Bank 1: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, BACK Kyoto @ 2.80 (002) Omiya - Urawa, BACK Urawa @ 2.00 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, BACK Xerez @ 1.94 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, BACK Lyngby @ 1.65 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, BACK Chester @ 3.65 Bank 2: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, LAY Kyoto @ 2.86 (002) Omiya - Urawa, LAY Urawa @ 2.04 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, LAY Xerez @ 1.95 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, LAY Lyngby @ 1.66 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, LAY Chester @ 3.75

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror Hi mate. Shout at me if I'm wrong, but am I correct in concluding that you're just using this GH to 'test' a ratings system? If the answer is 'no', then feel free to call me 'thick' and to go back and read the thread again! If the answer is 'yes', then why do you not back-test the ratings system against oodles of historic data? Saves you risking placing an incorrect bet, and shouldn't take quite as long to find any conclusions.

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror In order for your rating selections to make a profit you need a sufficient high strike rate versus odds gotten and overcome the 5% commission. To state that, if a system makes a loss, doing the opposite should make a profit is incorrect. Doing the opposite also means you still need a high enough strike rate versus gotten odds, which will be slightly worse, at least one tick as you indicate, as well as overcome the commission. If you where to do this as a test with blind betting you would see a steady loss on both sides. In fact even with your rating system this would be the most likely thing to happen. ( i think you may underestimate the 5% commission effect ) In short it's a good test as you put things in reality in terms of selections and odds. But i'm wondering about one thing. Usually when designing a system you start with a premise, an assumption about something that leads to profit. Then you build a selections process around that premise, can be a rating system, and you test if it actually does generate a profit. Here you have a rating system but you actually don't know if backing or laying will generate a profit. Doesn't make sense in the traditional way as your starting point should be a reason for either one or the other to be profitable. So should bank 1 be profitable and bank 2 losing ? Or have you opted for a different starting point ?

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror

Thanks for the input guys. I am not using this thread to test a specific ratings system. My initial thought was that if you back a series of selections and they give a loss, then laying these same selections should provide a profit. What i want to test is if the drawbacks, namely the slightly worse odds (a tic or two) and the commission, is enough to make the laying a loss as well, or not. So in order to test this i made up the simplest rating system, just so i have a system to make the selections, so the selections wouldn't be subconsciously biased in any way.

am I correct in concluding that you're just using this GH to 'test' a ratings system?

No. :)

To state that, if a system makes a loss, doing the opposite should make a profit is incorrect. Doing the opposite also means you still need a high enough strike rate versus gotten odds, which will be slightly worse, at least one tick as you indicate, as well as overcome the commission.
Doing the opposite (laying) will produce exactly the same strike rate but inversed. I disagree with your statement, you are welcome to explain further why this will fail.
Here you have a rating system but you actually don't know if backing or laying will generate a profit. Doesn't make sense in the traditional way as your starting point should be a reason for either one or the other to be profitable. So should bank 1 be profitable and bank 2 losing ? Or have you opted for a different starting point ?
I hope that it by now is clear that this is not the issue here. The thread does not revolve around a rating system, but a theory.
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Re: 2 banks and a mirror

Doing the opposite (laying) will produce exactly the same strike rate but inversed. I disagree with your statement, you are welcome to explain further why this will fail.
The odds will not be the exact opposite therefore the same strike rate will give a slightly worse result. The difference is bigger at higher odds as the "tick" value is bigger.
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Re: 2 banks and a mirror So you've basically replaced random selections by a simple rating system. I fail to see the point in this case as the rating doesn't actually add anything compared to random selections. And random selections is very simply, you lose on the 5% commission. Basic maths really. I do get the theory that if a system loses doing the opposite may give profit. But the loss needs to be big enough to cover the slightly worse odds and the commission on top. Otherwise you simply lose on both ends. Anyhow, good luck.

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror Bank 1: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, BACK Kyoto @ 2.80 :( -1, 99.00 (002) Omiya - Urawa, BACK Urawa @ 2.00 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, BACK Xerez @ 1.94 :( -1, 98.00 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, BACK Lyngby @ 1.65 :) +0.62, 98.62 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, BACK Chester @ 3.65 :( -1, 97.62 Bank 2: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, LAY Kyoto @ 2.86 :) +0.95, 100.95 (002) Omiya - Urawa, LAY Urawa @ 2.04 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, LAY Xerez @ 1.95 :) +0.95, 101.90 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, LAY Lyngby @ 1.66 :( -0.65, 101.25 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, LAY Chester @ 3.75 :) +0.95, 102.20

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror Bank 1: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, BACK Kyoto @ 2.80 frown2.gif -1, 99.00 (002) Omiya - Urawa, BACK Urawa @ 2.00 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, BACK Xerez @ 1.94 frown2.gif -1, 98.00 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, BACK Lyngby @ 1.65 smile2.gif +0.62, 98.62 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, BACK Chester @ 3.65 frown2.gif -1, 97.62 (006) Pumas - San Luis, BACK Pumas @ 1.94 (007) Puebla - Tigres, BACK Tigres @ 3.00 (008) Zaragoza - Elche, BACK Zaragoza @ 1.56 (009) Tenerife - Huesca, BACK Tenerife @ 1.77 (010) Boca Juniors - Tigre, BACK Boca Juniors @ 1.41 Bank 2: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, LAY Kyoto @ 2.86 smile2.gif +0.95, 100.95 (002) Omiya - Urawa, LAY Urawa @ 2.04 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, LAY Xerez @ 1.95 smile2.gif +0.95, 101.90 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, LAY Lyngby @ 1.66 frown2.gif -0.65, 101.25 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, LAY Chester @ 3.75 smile2.gif +0.95, 102.20 (006) Pumas - San Luis, LAY Pumas @ 1.98 (007) Puebla - Tigres, LAY Tigres @ 3.05 (008) Zaragoza - Elche, LAY Zaragoza @ 1.57 (009) Tenerife - Huesca, LAY Tenerife @ 1.79 (010) Boca Juniors - Tigre, LAY Boca Juniors @ 1.42

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror Bank 1: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, BACK Kyoto @ 2.80 frown2.gif -1, 99.00 (002) Omiya - Urawa, BACK Urawa @ 2.00 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, BACK Xerez @ 1.94 frown2.gif -1, 98.00 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, BACK Lyngby @ 1.65 smile2.gif +0.62, 98.62 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, BACK Chester @ 3.65 frown2.gif -1, 97.62 (006) Pumas - San Luis, BACK Pumas @ 1.94 (007) Puebla - Tigres, BACK Tigres @ 3.00 (008) Zaragoza - Elche, BACK Zaragoza @ 1.56 (009) Tenerife - Huesca, BACK Tenerife @ 1.77 (010) Boca Juniors - Tigre, BACK Boca Juniors @ 1.41 (011) Viking - Stabaek, BACK Stabaek @ 2.32 (012) Dynamo Zagreb - Hajduk Split, BACK Hajduk Split @ 5.1 (013) Sigma - Brno, BACK Brno @ 3.15 Bank 2: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, LAY Kyoto @ 2.86 smile2.gif +0.95, 100.95 (002) Omiya - Urawa, LAY Urawa @ 2.04 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, LAY Xerez @ 1.95 smile2.gif +0.95, 101.90 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, LAY Lyngby @ 1.66 frown2.gif -0.65, 101.25 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, LAY Chester @ 3.75 smile2.gif +0.95, 102.20 (006) Pumas - San Luis, LAY Pumas @ 1.98 (007) Puebla - Tigres, LAY Tigres @ 3.05 (008) Zaragoza - Elche, LAY Zaragoza @ 1.57 (009) Tenerife - Huesca, LAY Tenerife @ 1.79 (010) Boca Juniors - Tigre, LAY Boca Juniors @ 1.42 (011) Viking - Stabaek, LAY Stabaek @ 2.36 (012) Dynamo Zagreb - Hajduk Split, LAY Hajduk Split @ 5.3 (013) Sigma - Brno, LAY Brno @ 3.30

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror More selections for my crazy system :lol Bank 1: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, BACK Kyoto @ 2.80 frown2.gif -1, 99.00 (002) Omiya - Urawa, BACK Urawa @ 2.00 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, BACK Xerez @ 1.94 frown2.gif -1, 98.00 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, BACK Lyngby @ 1.65 smile2.gif +0.62, 98.62 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, BACK Chester @ 3.65 frown2.gif -1, 97.62 (006) Pumas - San Luis, BACK Pumas @ 1.94 (007) Puebla - Tigres, BACK Tigres @ 3.00 (008) Zaragoza - Elche, BACK Zaragoza @ 1.56 (009) Tenerife - Huesca, BACK Tenerife @ 1.77 (010) Boca Juniors - Tigre, BACK Boca Juniors @ 1.41 (011) Viking - Stabaek, BACK Stabaek @ 2.32 (012) Dynamo Zagreb - Hajduk Split, BACK Hajduk Split @ 5.1 (013) Sigma - Brno, BACK Brno @ 3.15 (014) Cluj - Farul, BACK Farul @ 14 (015) Portoguesa - Botafogo, BACK Botafogo @ 2.28 (016) Atletico-PR - Gremio, BACK Gremio @ 2.46 (017) Sport Recife - Sao Paulo, BACK Sport Recife @ 2.44 (018) Figueirense - Cruzeiro, BACK Cruzeiro @ 2.64 (019) Marseille - Monaco, BACK Marseille @ 1.60 (020) San Martin - River Plate, BACK San Martin @ 3.70 (021) Internacional - Vitoria, BACK Internacional @ 1.71 (022) Palmeiras - Vasco, BACK Palmeiras @ 1.44 Bank 2: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, LAY Kyoto @ 2.86 smile2.gif +0.95, 100.95 (002) Omiya - Urawa, LAY Urawa @ 2.04 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, LAY Xerez @ 1.95 smile2.gif +0.95, 101.90 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, LAY Lyngby @ 1.66 frown2.gif -0.65, 101.25 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, LAY Chester @ 3.75 smile2.gif +0.95, 102.20 (006) Pumas - San Luis, LAY Pumas @ 1.98 (007) Puebla - Tigres, LAY Tigres @ 3.05 (008) Zaragoza - Elche, LAY Zaragoza @ 1.57 (009) Tenerife - Huesca, LAY Tenerife @ 1.79 (010) Boca Juniors - Tigre, LAY Boca Juniors @ 1.42 (011) Viking - Stabaek, LAY Stabaek @ 2.36 (012) Dynamo Zagreb - Hajduk Split, LAY Hajduk Split @ 5.3 (013) Sigma - Brno, LAY Brno @ 3.30 (014) Cluj - Farul, LAY Farul @ 15 (015) Portoguesa - Botafogo, LAY Botafogo @ 2.30 (016) Atletico-PR - Gremio, LAY Gremio @ 2.54 (017) Sport Recife - Sao Paulo, LAY Sport Recife @ 2.46 (018) Figueirense - Cruzeiro, LAY Cruzeiro @ 2.70 (019) Marseille - Monaco, LAY Marseille @ 1.61(020) San Martin - River Plate, LAY San Martin @ 3.75 (021) Internacional - Vitoria, LAY Internacional @ 1.72 (022) Palmeiras - Vasco, LAY Palmeiras @ 1.46

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Re: 2 banks and a mirror

Commission plays a role here too but that should be marginal.
( i think you may underestimate the 5% commission effect )
I agree with DP here. Commission will play a much bigger role than you think. I've had a few losing 'systems' in my time (:lol:$) and thought that I would just switch the backing for laying but unfortunately it don't work like that. :\
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Re: 2 banks and a mirror

I agree with DP here. Commission will play a much bigger role than you think. I've had a few losing 'systems' in my time (:lol:$) and thought that I would just switch the backing for laying but unfortunately it don't work like that. :\
You (and DP) are probably right, if it was that simple everyone would do it... :loon But it's a paper trial and there's no harm in trying, as i said i may just learn something....!
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Re: 2 banks and a mirror Looking good for bank 2 so far :loon Bank 1: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, BACK Kyoto @ 2.80 frown2.gif -1, 99.00 (002) Omiya - Urawa, BACK Urawa @ 2.00 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, BACK Xerez @ 1.94 frown2.gif -1, 98.00 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, BACK Lyngby @ 1.65 smile2.gif +0.62, 98.62 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, BACK Chester @ 3.65 frown2.gif -1, 97.62 (006) Pumas - San Luis, BACK Pumas @ 1.94 :( -1, 96.62 (007) Puebla - Tigres, BACK Tigres @ 3.00 :( -1, 95.62 (008) Zaragoza - Elche, BACK Zaragoza @ 1.56 :) +0.53, 96.15 (009) Tenerife - Huesca, BACK Tenerife @ 1.77 :( -1, 95.15 (010) Boca Juniors - Tigre, BACK Boca Juniors @ 1.41 :( -1, 94.15 (011) Viking - Stabaek, BACK Stabaek @ 2.32 :( -1, 93.15 (012) Dynamo Zagreb - Hajduk Split, BACK Hajduk Split @ 5.1 (013) Sigma - Brno, BACK Brno @ 3.15 (014) Cluj - Farul, BACK Farul @ 14 (015) Portoguesa - Botafogo, BACK Botafogo @ 2.28 (016) Atletico-PR - Gremio, BACK Gremio @ 2.46 (017) Sport Recife - Sao Paulo, BACK Sport Recife @ 2.44 (018) Figueirense - Cruzeiro, BACK Cruzeiro @ 2.64 (019) Marseille - Monaco, BACK Marseille @ 1.60 (020) San Martin - River Plate, BACK San Martin @ 3.70 (021) Internacional - Vitoria, BACK Internacional @ 1.71 (022) Palmeiras - Vasco, BACK Palmeiras @ 1.44 Bank 2: 100 pts (001) Kyoto - Osaka, LAY Kyoto @ 2.86 smile2.gif +0.95, 100.95 (002) Omiya - Urawa, LAY Urawa @ 2.04 - Suspended (003) Xerez - Cordoba, LAY Xerez @ 1.95 smile2.gif +0.95, 101.90 (004) Roskilde - Lyngby, LAY Lyngby @ 1.66 frown2.gif -0.66, 101.24 (005) Chester - Shrewsbury, LAY Chester @ 3.75 smile2.gif +0.95, 102.19 (006) Pumas - San Luis, LAY Pumas @ 1.98 :) +0.95, 103.14 (007) Puebla - Tigres, LAY Tigres @ 3.05 :) +0.95, 104.09 (008) Zaragoza - Elche, LAY Zaragoza @ 1.57 :( -0.57, 103.52 (009) Tenerife - Huesca, LAY Tenerife @ 1.79 :) +0.95, 104.47 (010) Boca Juniors - Tigre, LAY Boca Juniors @ 1.42 :) +0.95, 105.42 (011) Viking - Stabaek, LAY Stabaek @ 2.36 :) +0.95, 106.37 (012) Dynamo Zagreb - Hajduk Split, LAY Hajduk Split @ 5.3 (013) Sigma - Brno, LAY Brno @ 3.30 (014) Cluj - Farul, LAY Farul @ 15 (015) Portoguesa - Botafogo, LAY Botafogo @ 2.30 (016) Atletico-PR - Gremio, LAY Gremio @ 2.54 (017) Sport Recife - Sao Paulo, LAY Sport Recife @ 2.46 (018) Figueirense - Cruzeiro, LAY Cruzeiro @ 2.70 (019) Marseille - Monaco, LAY Marseille @ 1.61(020) San Martin - River Plate, LAY San Martin @ 3.75 (021) Internacional - Vitoria, LAY Internacional @ 1.72 (022) Palmeiras - Vasco, LAY Palmeiras @ 1.46

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