Best Bet of the Day ~ Mon 11/8/08

[fintron]

6.50 Windsor Red Somerset comes into this race off the back of a gutsy win at Ascot, in which he led, was headed, but then battled back to regain the lead and go on and score. He runs off 85 here and had 85-rated Troubador behind so can't be ruled out on the basis of rating as he hasn't been unpunished by the assessor from his last run. However, despite those positives I can't back him because of some terrible course form - form figures of 8065 (never better than 2.38 of a winner). In view of that, my pick here is Michael Jarvis' Brave Hawk, who notched up a CD win here off 72 in June and ran into a decent sort in Lindelaan as he attempted to follow up over CD again NTO. He was 4 lengths off the Stoute runner when a beaten 2nd that day, but he carried a 6 lb penalty and there is no shame in that placing given that Lindelaan stepped up to win a class 2 handicap off 93 on her next run. The one that could threaten here is the Candy runner, Rum Jungle, who is the 9/4 fav. He's up 6 lbs to 76 after beating a pair rated 84 and 69, but it would be fair to say that neither Gallantry or Flores Sea are as classy as Lindelaan and for that reason Brave Hawk gets my vote as IMO the form is stronger. 9/2 1 pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet of the Day ~ Mon 11/8/08 415 Southwell : Fresh Air And Fun Narrowed this down to the front two and strong arguments for either but the selection has been aimed at decent prizes on the NH Flat scene racing at Aintree, Ascot and Punchestown and I think has far more scope than the favourite Mizen Raven. When last seen he ran well to two out in a race that Beherayn beat Cortinas, both have franked that form and if he's fit on his return he will be hard to beat on that eveidence, that form is a stone better than that in which the fav won at Perth and then wasnt good enough in a handicap last time, looks a bit short at 7/4 with the penalty. A chaser in the future and interesting that he's been brought to Southwell where the mini fence type hurdles are used as he made a few errors over the conventional ones. Some horses do prefer the brush obstacles.