macbeth9 Posted October 3, 2003 Share Posted October 3, 2003 I am maintaining the stats that allow me to use the Paul Steele system. I like his concept of "Penetration" which he uses to judge whether sides have deserved their wins. He looks at shots on target, shots off target and corners gained. The comparison of the two sides average penetration is used as his second criteria in his overall selection. In his analysis of the system it individually would have been top-rated if draws were ignored. I have always liked the idea of deserved and undeserved victories. Having examined the data for a couple of weeks I'm now going to use it on here as a predictor. Having produced the games of interest I will then take into account odds, and team news. Sadly, I will be able to do this weekend, but will then be stuck in California on holiday for two weeks 8) :D so it may take a few weeks to get a rhythm going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cjamars Posted October 3, 2003 Share Posted October 3, 2003 Re: Steele penetration-only system He’s the most popular man on the PL at the moment is our Mr. Steele. I have to say I am dubious about some of the Sporting L:ife’s stats mind as I’ve seen teams get 2 goals with a single shot on target per them among other such oddities 0] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted October 3, 2003 Share Posted October 3, 2003 Re: Steele penetration-only system There are explanations for this, such as penalties, own goals and deflections. That said, I have already pointed out a couple of discrepancies to Sportinglife (beginning of last season) and they said they would be on to it. However, their ain't really a lot that they can do since they get their feeds from the PA, so it's really up to the PA to get it right. At the end of the day, the PA will simply have a few reps. stationed at every game collecting all the relevant bits of data. There isn't really any other way to do it if you want live updated stats. Thus, there will always be some mistakes. At least they ain't as bad as the old Sports.com I once had a under 11 corners bet, thought I'd won it when Sports.com showed 10. Lo and behold, when i checked my account I'd lost, so had a look at Sportingindex and there were 14. How the fcuk do you miss 4 corners in a game unless you fall asleep? :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted October 3, 2003 Author Share Posted October 3, 2003 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted October 3, 2003 Author Share Posted October 3, 2003 whoops how do I avoid t h e b i g g r e y s p a c e s ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted October 3, 2003 Share Posted October 3, 2003 Re: whoops You need to filter the code using a web page that is available in the Ezboard help forums. Problem is I can't find the post for for you. I have fixed your post above using a local copy of the web page that I have saved. Does anyone still have the URL for the HTML table code processor? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted October 3, 2003 Share Posted October 3, 2003 Re: whoops http://beta.ezboard.com/fcooltipsntricksfrm9.showMessage?topicID=9.topic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted October 5, 2003 Author Share Posted October 5, 2003 Sat results Three homes: Staked 6 units Return 7.06 units P&L 1.06 units :) Win/Loss 2/1 Strike rate 67% Average odds 1.98 Three X2: Staked 6 units Return 3.75 units P&L -2.25 units :( Win/loss 1/2 Strike rate 33% Average odds 1.83 Combined Staked 12 units Return 10.81 units P&L -1.19 units Win/loss 3/6 Strike rate 50% Average odds 1.90 Have Villa game tomorrow, but after that won't be able to post again until after 25th October due to hols Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted October 6, 2003 Author Share Posted October 6, 2003 Whole weekend Three homes: Staked 6 units Return 7.06 units P&L 1.06 units Win/Loss 2/1 Strike rate 67% Average odds 1.98 Four X2: Staked 8 units Return 7.25 units P&L -0.75 units Win/loss 2/2 Strike rate 50% Average odds 1.89 Combined Staked 14 units Return 14.31 units P&L +0.31 units Win/loss 4/7 Strike rate 57% Average odds 1.92 New bank 100.31 units, not time to retire to the Seychelles yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 1, 2003 Author Share Posted November 1, 2003 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 1, 2003 Author Share Posted November 1, 2003 correction Sadly believed Stan James quotes in RP this morning !! Make Ipswich 1.51 at Gamebookers, and Preston 1.68 at same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 2, 2003 Author Share Posted November 2, 2003 This weekend results 6 homes: Staked 12 units Return 14.43 units P&L 2.43 units Win/Loss 4/2 Strike rate 67% Average odds 1.95 5 X2: Staked 10 units Return 12.95 units P&L +2.95 units Win/loss 4/1 Strike rate 80% Average odds 1.48 One 2 staked 2 units Return 0 P&L -2 Win/loss 0/1 Strike rate 0% Average odds 2.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 2, 2003 Author Share Posted November 2, 2003 Running total, after 1/11/2003 Combined Staked 36 units Return 39.69 units P&L +3.69 units Yield 10.25% Win/loss 12/7 Strike rate 63% Average odds 1.84 New bank 103.69 units, its getting warmer I actually mistyped team names in to my calcualtions and missed three games I may have suggested. That'll teach me too type more acurately :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 3, 2003 Author Share Posted November 3, 2003 Corrections .... Missed out the away loss, and miscalculated the homes, overall should be : Combined Staked 38 units Return 42.19 units P&L +4.19 units Yield 11.03% Win/loss 12/7 Strike rate 63% Average odds 1.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 5, 2003 Author Share Posted November 5, 2003 4/11/2003 Tuesday 4/11/2003 Gillingham - Sunderland X2 Draw odds - 3.25 BlueSquare Away Odds - 2.5 Totalbet One unit on each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 5, 2003 Author Share Posted November 5, 2003 Result 4/11/03 Gillingham 1-3 sunderland :D Stake 2 units equally spli on X2 Return 2.5 units P&L 0.5 unit Overall combined Combined Staked 40 units Return 44.69 units P&L +4.69 units Yield 11.7% Win/loss 13/7 Strike rate 65% Average odds 1.82 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 5, 2003 Author Share Posted November 5, 2003 5/11/2003 Coventry - Bradford home 2 units at 1.67 with Blue Square, and others Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 6, 2003 Author Share Posted November 6, 2003 5/11/2003 Coventry drew :( Overall Combined Staked 42 units Return 44.69 units P&L +2.69 units Yield 6.4% Win/loss 13/8 Strike rate 62% Average odds 1.81 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 8, 2003 Author Share Posted November 8, 2003 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 10, 2003 Author Share Posted November 10, 2003 Weekend results Sorry for the dodgy formatting above, I'll try and be simpler next time. Anyway ..... 6 correct from 8 this weekend. Let down by Ipswich at Derby, and Man City at home. :D Overall Combined Staked 58 units Return 65.75 units P&L +7.75 units Yield 13.4% Win/loss 19/29 Strike rate 66% Average odds 1.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 15, 2003 Author Share Posted November 15, 2003 w/e of 15/11/03 Two homes Blackpool - Chesterfield 1.8 at WHills Gillingham - Wimbeldon 1.66 PremierBet One away Carlisle - Mansfield 1.91 Ladbrokes Five X2s Cambridge - Oxford X 3.25 Chandler; 2 2.5 BlueSquare Huddersfield - Hull X 3.25 Chandler; 2 2.5 Bet365 York - Doncaster X 3.3 Pinnacle; 2 2.5 BlueSquare Darlington - Lincoln X 3.3 Pinnacle; 2 2.4 Stanleybet Macclesfield - Scunthorpe X 3.3 Pinnacle; 2 2.63 Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 17, 2003 Author Share Posted November 17, 2003 Re: w/e of 15/11/03 T Staked 16 units Return 17.37 units P&L +1.37 units Yield 8.56% Win/loss 5/8 Strike rate 63% Average odds 1.56 Ove Staked 74 units Return 83.12 units P&L +9.12 units Yield 12.3% Win/loss 24/37 Strike rate 65% Average odds 1.71 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 18, 2003 Author Share Posted November 18, 2003 Re: w/e of 15/11/03 Tonight's game Northampton - Swansea X2 X Totebetexpress 3.4 2 Betdirect 2.8 1 point on each Average odds on match 1.54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 22, 2003 Author Share Posted November 22, 2003 22/11/02 selections Five homes, 2 units per game Man U - Blackburn 1.29 at PaddyP Coventry - Gillingham 1.91 Bet365 Cheltenham - Carlisle 1.62 Ladbrokes Wigan - Forest 1.9 Canbet Swansea - Darlington 1.53 Blue Square One away, 2 units Partick - Killie 2.25 Ladbrokes One 2 point double on Rangers and Celtic 1.37 @ ToteExpress Three X2s, one unit for each outcome Leeds - Bolton X 3.4 Ladbrokes; 2 3 PaddyP Rushden - Colchester X 3.4 Pinnacle; 2 2.75 Ladbrokes Stockport - B'mouth X 3.25 Pinnacle; 2 2.62 Premierbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 22, 2003 Author Share Posted November 22, 2003 22/11/2003 the three X2s have the followign average odds Leeds 1.59 Rushden 1.52 Stockport 1.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 25, 2003 Author Share Posted November 25, 2003 Results, and some corrections worst week so far. Inlcuding the Northampton game 6 correct out of 11 :( This week: Staked 22 units Return 18.42 units P&L -3.58 units Yield 16.2%% Win/loss 6/11 Strike rate 54% Average odds 1.63 Overall (this includes some corrections, my spreadsheet, or me, wasn't quite accurate earlier in October) Staked 96 units Return 96.82 units P&L +0.82 units Yield 0.9% Win/loss 30/48 Strike rate 63% Average odds 1.69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 26, 2003 Author Share Posted November 26, 2003 Midweek Two aways : Reading at Burnley 2.75 Canbet West Ham at Wimbledon 1.82 Canbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted November 29, 2003 Author Share Posted November 29, 2003 29/11/03 6 homes: Arsenal 1.4 Premierbet Charlton 1.7 Stanley Bolton 2.5 Canbet Liverpool 1.62 BlueSq Bournemouth 2 V Chandler QPR 1.73 BlueSq Seven X2: Forest - WBA: X - 3.25 Premier; 2 - 2.75 Canbet Palace - Coventry: X - 3.4 Premier; 2 - 3.2 Pinnacle Bristol R - Hull: X - 3.3 Pinnacle; 2 - 2.35 GameBook Nortants - Mansfield: X - 3.3 Pinncle; 2 - 2.63 betdirect Rochdale - Oxford: X - 3.25 Pinncle; 2 - 2.3 VChandler Darlinton - Scunth: X - 3.3 Pinncle; 2 - 2.4 GameBook Dundee U - Hearts: X - 3.3 Pinncle; 2 - 2.25 Canbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted December 2, 2003 Author Share Posted December 2, 2003 results 6 homes: Arsenal 1.4 Premierbet :( Charlton 1.7 Stanley :( Bolton 2.5 Canbet :) Liverpool 1.62 BlueSq :) Bournemouth 2 V Chandler :) QPR 1.73 BlueSq :) Seven X2: Forest - WBA: X - 3.25 Premier; 2 - 2.75 Canbet :) Palace - Coventry: X - 3.4 Premier; 2 - 3.2 Pinnacle :( Bristol R - Hull: X - 3.3 Pinnacle; 2 - 2.35 GameBook :( Nortants - Mansfield: X - 3.3 Pinncle; 2 - 2.63 betdirect :) Rochdale - Oxford: X - 3.25 Pinncle; 2 - 2.3 VChandler :) Darlinton - Scunth: X - 3.3 Pinncle; 2 - 2.4 GameBook :) Dundee U - Hearts: X - 3.3 Pinncle; 2 - 2.25 Canbet :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macbeth9 Posted December 2, 2003 Author Share Posted December 2, 2003 state of play This week, including last weeks midweeks: Staked 30 units Return 29.86 units P&L -0.14 units Yield 0% Win/loss 9/15 Strike rate 60% Average odds 1.7 Overall: Staked 126 units Return 126.7 units P&L +0.7 units Yield 0% Win/loss 39/63 Strike rate 62% Average odds 1.69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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