Best Bet of the Day ~ Mon 4/8/08

[fintron]

8.30 Windsor I like the look of Patavian Prince (10/3) here. Been running very consistently of late and chases a hat-trick tonight. His last two wins have come on fast ground, with the win at Brighton coming in a class 5 handicap, which he again tackles tonight. He was put up 4 lbs for his next outing at Lingfield and was a decent 2 length winner, but he didn't beat much that day as second was only rated 62 and 3rd was rated 63. However, you can only beat what is put in front of you and prior to that he had shown superiority over Millfield at Brighton, and that one was rated 69 and won NTO at Kemp off 69. 3rd was one of Stoute's fillies who was rated 70. Jo Crowley's gelding is rated 69 for this but Travis Block takes off 3 lb to put him just 3 lbs above his last winning mark and he should have a good chance given the form with Millfield et al. He won over this trip LTO and has gone very close the last two times he's been partnered with this jockey. The fav in the race is 15/8 shot Linda Green, who won over CD LTO in a better race than this. Mick Channon's horse drops in class and runs off the same mark of 56 as she carries a 6 lb penalty for her win in a fillies handicap 7 days ago. However, she looks less consistent than Patavian Prince and hadn't even placed in any of her 9 races prior to that win so I'm a little wary of backing her at the price now she's back in with the boys, even though she won well enough LTO and had a 74-rated horse back in second (won by 4 lengths). Patavian Prince 1 pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet of the Day ~ Mon 4/8/08 6.15 Carlisle: Emperors Well I do have a liking for these quirky races although many avoid them, this one is a typical race where a few can be kicked out with confidence, Emperors Well looks assured to run his usual game race from the front and with one of the better riders in the race can be relied on. If she gets the pace right tonight it will be tough for anything coming from behind, his run at Beverley looks decent in the context of this race. 9/2 at the moment looks a bet to nothing for the EW merchants but going for the win and a saver on the place.