[Ended] Half the bank on laying horses

[princecapri]

So I will start with £12.85, my current bank in Betfair. My Betfair account needs more money at some point so I dont mind running this experiment/GH. When I started betting on horses, I had a really good first month. Sometimes picking out 4/6 and even 4/4 winners. But my bank was small and I hardly gained anything. As I increased the stakes, I was met with the well known failure, and since then, I have been pretty rubbish at picking horses. Ive tried laying as well, but it all goes into the ground after a while. Atm, I am working on my own speed ratings, and have noticed that some oft he bottom placed horses dont tend to win. Since there is not enough back-testing for this ratings system, I would suggest anyone to refrain from following this blindly. Still, it would be interesting to see where this goes. I will normally bank 1/3rd after getting 3 x Starting bank. For convenience sake, first pit-stop is £30. Also, I will bet half the bank everytime. (Sometimes I might bet the whole bank, for another system I have, which has a very decent strike rate). So yea, in essence, its all simple really. Hopefully should have a string of successful bets. Addendum: Should have mentioned. The odds I will be chasing will lie between 5/1 to 20/1. I will at times go outside these boundaries if I feel confident enough, but odds in this range will be give preference.

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit.

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Heh...didn't see that coming. This makes things a bit interesting. Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit;

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit; £6.45 2) Black Falcon (3:45 Sth) @ 5.9, for 62p profit;

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit; £6.45 3) Black Falcon (3:45 Sth) @ 5.9, for 62p profit; £7.07 4) Registrar (4:00 Yar) @ 12, for 30p profit;

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Heh...ridiculous Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 LOST 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit; £6.45 3) Black Falcon (3:45 Sth) @ 5.9, for 62p profit; £7.07 4) Registrar (4:00 Yar) @ 12, for 30p profit; £3.77 LOST 5) Whitbarrow (4:15 Sth) @ 9.4, for 40p profit (AI); Going all in now, till I can build a respectable half-bank.

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 LOST 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit; £6.45 3) Black Falcon (3:45 Sth) @ 5.9, for 62p profit; £7.07 4) Registrar (4:00 Yar) @ 12, for 30p profit; £3.77 LOST 5) Whitbarrow (4:15 Sth) @ 9.4, for 38p profit (AI); £4.15 Was waiting to lay Muntami in 16.30 Yar, but the money hasnt been returned yet, and also, odds have gone have mani-folds, so will be skipping this.

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 LOST 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit; £6.45 3) Black Falcon (3:45 Sth) @ 5.9, for 62p profit; £7.07 4) Registrar (4:00 Yar) @ 12, for 30p profit; £3.77 LOST 5) Whitbarrow (4:15 Sth) @ 9.4, for 38p profit (AI); £4.15 6) Al Rayanah (4:45 Sth) @ 7.8, for 47p profit (AI);

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 LOST 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit; £6.45 3) Black Falcon (3:45 Sth) @ 5.9, for 62p profit; £7.07 4) Registrar (4:00 Yar) @ 12, for 30p profit; £3.77 LOST 5) Whitbarrow (4:15 Sth) @ 9.4, for 38p profit (AI); £4.15 6) Al Rayanah (4:45 Sth) @ 7.8, for 47p profit (AI); £4.62 7) Spanish Diva (6:40 Wind) @ 6.8, for 74p profit;

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 LOST 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit; £6.45 3) Black Falcon (3:45 Sth) @ 5.9, for 62p profit; £7.07 4) Registrar (4:00 Yar) @ 12, for 30p profit; £3.77 LOST 5) Whitbarrow (4:15 Sth) @ 9.4, for 38p profit (AI); £4.15 6) Al Rayanah (4:45 Sth) @ 7.8, for 47p profit (AI); £4.62 7) Spanish Diva (6:40 Wind) @ 6.8, for 74p profit (AI); £5.36 8) Gentle Guru (7:40 Wind) @ 13.5, for 39p profit (AI);

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 LOST 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit; £6.45 3) Black Falcon (3:45 Sth) @ 5.9, for 62p profit; £7.07 4) Registrar (4:00 Yar) @ 12, for 30p profit; £3.77 LOST 5) Whitbarrow (4:15 Sth) @ 9.4, for 38p profit (AI); £4.15 6) Al Rayanah (4:45 Sth) @ 7.8, for 47p profit (AI); £4.62 7) Spanish Diva (6:40 Wind) @ 6.8, for 74p profit (AI); £5.36 8) Gentle Guru (7:40 Wind) @ 13.5, for 39p profit (AI); £5.75 8) Chunky Lad (7:50 Utt) @ 3.25, for £1.19 profit;

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 LOST 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit; £6.45 3) Black Falcon (3:45 Sth) @ 5.9, for 62p profit; £7.07 4) Registrar (4:00 Yar) @ 12, for 30p profit; £3.77 LOST 5) Whitbarrow (4:15 Sth) @ 9.4, for 38p profit (AI); £4.15 6) Al Rayanah (4:45 Sth) @ 7.8, for 47p profit (AI); £4.62 7) Spanish Diva (6:40 Wind) @ 6.8, for 74p profit (AI); £5.36 8) Gentle Guru (7:40 Wind) @ 13.5, for 39p profit (AI); £5.75 8) Chunky Lad (7:50 Utt) @ 3.25, for £1.19 profit; £6.94

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 LOST 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit; £6.45 3) Black Falcon (3:45 Sth) @ 5.9, for 62p profit; £7.07 4) Registrar (4:00 Yar) @ 12, for 30p profit; £3.77 LOST 5) Whitbarrow (4:15 Sth) @ 9.4, for 38p profit (AI); £4.15 6) Al Rayanah (4:45 Sth) @ 7.8, for 47p profit (AI); £4.62 7) Spanish Diva (6:40 Wind) @ 6.8, for 74p profit (AI); £5.36 8) Gentle Guru (7:40 Wind) @ 13.5, for 39p profit (AI); £5.75 9) Chunky Lad (7:50 Utt) @ 3.25, for £1.19 profit; £6.94 10) Earnest (8:20 Utt) @ 9.8, for 38p profit;

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 LOST 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit; £6.45 3) Black Falcon (3:45 Sth) @ 5.9, for 62p profit; £7.07 4) Registrar (4:00 Yar) @ 12, for 30p profit; £3.77 LOST 5) Whitbarrow (4:15 Sth) @ 9.4, for 38p profit (AI); £4.15 6) Al Rayanah (4:45 Sth) @ 7.8, for 47p profit (AI); £4.62 7) Spanish Diva (6:40 Wind) @ 6.8, for 74p profit (AI); £5.36 8) Gentle Guru (7:40 Wind) @ 13.5, for 39p profit (AI); £5.75 9) Chunky Lad (7:50 Utt) @ 3.25, for £1.19 profit; £6.94 10) Earnest (8:20 Utt) @ 9.8, for 38p profit; £7.32 11) Floodlight Fantasy (8:50 Utt) @ 6.2, for £1.28 profit;

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 1) Shampagne (2:45 Sth) @ 13, for 52p profit; £6.25 LOST 2) Pegasus Dancer (3:15 Sth) @ 15.5, for 20p profit; £6.45 3) Black Falcon (3:45 Sth) @ 5.9, for 62p profit; £7.07 4) Registrar (4:00 Yar) @ 12, for 30p profit; £3.77 LOST 5) Whitbarrow (4:15 Sth) @ 9.4, for 38p profit (AI); £4.15 6) Al Rayanah (4:45 Sth) @ 7.8, for 47p profit (AI); £4.62 7) Spanish Diva (6:40 Wind) @ 6.8, for 74p profit (AI); £5.36 8) Gentle Guru (7:40 Wind) @ 13.5, for 39p profit (AI); £5.75 9) Chunky Lad (7:50 Utt) @ 3.25, for £1.19 profit; £6.94 10) Earnest (8:20 Utt) @ 9.8, for 38p profit; £7.32 11) Floodlight Fantasy (8:50 Utt) @ 6.2, for £1.28 profit (AI); £8.60 Fairly decent run till the end of the day, got the 1st one wrong, which really brought down things. Other than that, there have been 9/11 successful lays, which is good. Shall continue tomorrow.

[DC]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Yeah good work today mate barr the first race. I was looking into why 2 people on this forum elected to lay Shampagne today - I suppose it's easy to see why it won afterwards, but learn from your mistake, look at the reasons why it won and get better. Remember you don't have to lay in lots of races a day, take your time - GOOD LUCK! :ok

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Hey Danny, cheers for the comments mate. Since my knowledge on horses is rather limited, any comment is more than welcomed. A serious question though (I am not being funny or sarcastic). Why did Shampagne win yesterday? It was 4/5 in my ratings and not in a very good position even otherwise. Maybe betting in a small race was not the right move? I don't exactly know how to look at race results and realise my errors, so any pointers on that would be great.

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 £8.60, Day 2 12) Proponent (2:15 Sth) @ 8, for 57p profit;

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 £8.60, Day 2 12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17 13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit;

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 £8.60, Day 2 12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17 13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77 14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI);

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Lucky-ish escape there I think, as Donegal came second. Starting Bank = £12.85 £8.60, Day 2 12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17 13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77 14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Lucky-ish escape there I think, as Donegal came second. Starting Bank = £12.85 £8.60, Day 2 12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17 13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77 14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29 15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; Nipping out for a bit, hence the early bet. Shall update when I get back.

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 £8.60, Day 2 12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17 13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77 14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29 15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77 16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit ;

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 £8.60, Day 2 12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17 13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77 14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29 15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77 16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63 I was initially trying to lay Tenezium, but in the end, the price went too far for my liking.

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 £8.60, Day 2 12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17 13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77 14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29 15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77 16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63 17) Kavachi (5:15 Good) @ 10, for 62p profit;

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 £8.60, Day 2 12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17 13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77 14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29 15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77 16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63 17) Kavachi (5:15 Good) @ 10, for 62p profit; £12.25 18) Jawad (5:45 Gal) @ 9.6, for £1.33 profit (AI); This is the bet that I am very confident about, hence all in on this.

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 £8.60, Day 2 12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17 13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77 14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29 15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77 16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63 17) Kavachi (5:15 Good) @ 10, for 62p profit; £12.25 18) Jawad (5:45 Gal) @ 9.6, for £1.33 profit (AI); £13.58 Now the bank is more than the starting stake, for once. Yay.

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 £8.60, Day 2 12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17 13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77 14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29 15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77 16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63 17) Kavachi (5:15 Good) @ 10, for 62p profit; £12.25 18) Jawad (5:45 Gal) @ 9.6, for £1.33 profit (AI); £13.58 19) Raise the Goblet (6:20 Gal) @ 7, for 95p profit;

[princecapri]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses Starting Bank = £12.85 £8.60, Day 2 12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17 13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77 14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29 15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77 16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63 17) Kavachi (5:15 Good) @ 10, for 62p profit; £12.25 18) Jawad (5:45 Gal) @ 9.6, for £1.33 profit (AI); £13.58 19) Raise the Goblet (6:20 Gal) @ 7, for 95p profit; £14.53 20) Green Tobasco (7:00 Gal) @ 30, for 47p profit; Long odds, but worth laying.

[DC]

Re: Half the bank on laying horses

Hey Danny, cheers for the comments mate. Since my knowledge on horses is rather limited, any comment is more than welcomed. A serious question though (I am not being funny or sarcastic). Why did Shampagne win yesterday? It was 4/5 in my ratings and not in a very good position even otherwise. Maybe betting in a small race was not the right move? I don't exactly know how to look at race results and realise my errors, so any pointers on that would be great.

OK mate I can only tell you what I saw and you're partly right with there only being a small number of runners which never helps....infact if you look at results with small fields over the last few days you'll probably notice a couple of 20-1 outsider winners...anyway... Here's my verdict on why Shampagne had a good chance of winning using the racing post... OK first thing, you picked a Nursery to lay a horse in, 2 year olds (and 3 year olds) can improve dramatically so it's hard to assess previous form. Put a line through it's last race at Newbury, (drawn the wrong side over 5f on Good ground class 2 race). Bear in mind this was a class 5 race over 7f. We know the horse is capable of winning a race (and on an AW surface) since it won a class 4 race over 5f at Kempton but the important race is the next race over 6f Class 2 at Pontefract where you can see from the comments the horse was staying on strongly final furlong. That suggests to me 7f would be ideal for this horse and this is a massive drop in grade. The other two pieces of form are both Class 1 races and over the minimum trip so hard to use that form as evidence, but that win in a Class 2 race staying on over 6f was the key for me.