Mr Intensity Posted April 25, 2004 Author Share Posted April 25, 2004 Re: ... Back in business: CORIA 3-0 v Schuettler @ 2.43 Betfair 3.5pts :) WON profit 5pts Starting bank = 100pts Current bank = 121.15pts Profit = 21.15pts W/L = 43/56 Total staked = 416.00pts Yield = 5.08% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 26, 2004 Share Posted April 26, 2004 Re: ... Mr Intensity you get 13.1pts by 2.62 x 5. Your 2 losses you suffered that day are subtracted under that win. I didn't have time to copy out your exact bet data. But its up to you. 4pts, 5pts, 6pts. Will make you more money than 5pts, 5pts, 5pts. Over a 3 day period. Because of your winning average. And the beauty is you're risking exactly the same ammount of points. It is totally up to you at the end of the day. I am interested in following your system myself if you don't mind. And I know which staking plan I will be using. If someone told me I would've made 227 pts profit in only one month without hardly increasing the stakes I will be all over it. Kindest regards Fender... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 26, 2004 Author Share Posted April 26, 2004 Re: ... Oh right, I thought each line represented one days bets. I'll take another look at that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 26, 2004 Author Share Posted April 26, 2004 Re: ... Still don't get it. On the first day, this happened: HRBATY v Agassi @ 3.9 LOST YOUZHNY 2-0 v Horna @ 2.4 WON returned 12pts ESCUDE 2-0 v Spadea @ 3.00 LOST But you say: -8 = 92pts -5 = 87pts +14.4pts = 101.4pts :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DoctorOfDanger Posted April 26, 2004 Share Posted April 26, 2004 Re: ... fender have you read through the archives? Have you actually done any background reading anywhere else on staking strategy? Why go 4,5,6? Why not 4,6,10? Why should you risk more on the third day than on the first. Are you more likely to win that day, and if so why? Progressive systems don't work for the simple reason that sooner or later the bad run that 'could never happen' does happen. Why don't you post your results here using the progressive system you are advocating? We could then compare your performance to that of level stakes or fixed profits staking after a reasonable number of bets. Maybe you'd like to make a suggestion as to what that reasonable number might be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 26, 2004 Author Share Posted April 26, 2004 Re: ... Selections for tomorrow: FERRER 2-0 v Martin @ 2.50 Bet365 3.34pts CORRETJA 2-0 v Almagro @ 2.62 StanJames 3.09pts HRBATY 2-0 v Ancic @ 2.20 Bet365 4.17pts MELZER 2-0 v Lapentti @ 2.75 StanJames 2.86pts MONTANES v Costa @ 2.62 StanJames 3.09pts PAVEL 2-0 v Davydenko @ 2.62 StanJames 3.09pts DUPUIS v Dent @ 2.25 Bet365 4pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 26, 2004 Share Posted April 26, 2004 Re: ... Mr Intensity I realize I made a mistake on your first bet. I am going to go through your bets again. And lay them out with the players names. like you have using my staking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 27, 2004 Author Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: ... Still bang out of form FERRER 2-0 v Martin @ 2.50 Bet365 3.34pts >: LOST loss 3.34pts CORRETJA 2-0 v Almagro @ 2.62 StanJames 3.09pts >: LOST loss 3.09pts HRBATY 2-0 v Ancic @ 2.20 Bet365 4.17pts >: LOST loss 4.17pts MELZER 2-0 v Lapentti @ 2.75 StanJames 2.86pts >: LOST loss 2.86pts MONTANES v Costa @ 2.62 StanJames 3.09pts :) WON profit 5pts PAVEL 2-0 v Davydenko @ 2.62 StanJames 3.09pts :) LOST loss 3.09pts DUPUIS v Dent @ 2.25 Bet365 4pts >: LOST loss 4pts Daily loss = 15.55pts Starting bank = 100pts Current bank = 105.6pts Profit = 5.6pts W/L = 44/62 Total staked = 439.64pts Yield = 1.27% :banghead :banghead :banghead :banghead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 27, 2004 Author Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: ... MARTIN 2-0 v Acacuso @ 2.62 StanJames 3.09pts VICENTE 2-0 v Karlovic @ 2.50 StanJames 3.34pts MONTANES 2-0 v Almagro @ 2.26 Betfair 3.97pts TURSUNOV v Sanchez @ 3.19 Betfair 2.29pts SRICHAPHAN v Rochus @ 2.39 Betfair 3.60pts KOHLSCREIBER 2-0 v Carlsen @ 2.50 StanJames 3.34pts YOUZHNY v Novak @ 2.15 WillHill 4.35pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 27, 2004 Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: ... Doctor, severe progressive staking plans don't work. Such as 2,4,8,16. But if you've a system as Mr intensity does where your strike rate is very high. A slight progressive plan will work wonders by recovering more of your previous losses, therefore increasing your bank faster. Look at what has happenned to Mr intensity. At one point he had an incredible turnover of 158pts from a starting bank of 100pts in one month. Now he has dropped back down to nearly where he started. I am going to show you where he would be now had he used this staking plan 5,7,9, And from the fourth day he stays at 9 pts until he hits a winner. After a winner he drops back down to 5 points. I have a system called The Timeline, which I have just started proofing on the horses & greyhound forum. If you want see the power of a slight increment staking plan. Level stakes don't make profit worth talking about over the long run unless A. your strike rate is over 50% and B. your average SP is over 3/1. And lets face it few if any systems can meet those neccessary criteria to make a decent profit from always using level stakes. All you will do is go up & down like a YO-YO, and take ages to make a decent return... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 27, 2004 Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: Mr I's Tennis System Okay Mr Intensity,I think I get the way you add and subtract stakes now. So I will work my staking plan against your results. Bit by bit until I am up to date with you. To show you where you would be in terms of points now, using the following plan. Day 1 5pts per bet Day 2 7pts per bet Day 3 9pts per bet (you stop here until you have a winning day then drop back to 5pts) STARTING BANK 100PTS Bet 1 Hrbaty v Agassi 5pts lost Bet 2 Youzhny v Horn 5pts X 2.4= 12pts won Bet 3 Escude v Spadea 5pts lost Bet 4 Dent v Blake 5pts lost Bet 5 Haas v Chela 5pts lost Bet 6 Grosjean v Coria 5pts lost Bet 7 Labadze v Blake 7pts X 3.3= 23.3pts won Bet 8 Henman v Federer 5pts lost Bet 9 Levy v Golmard 7pts X 2.1= 14.7pts won Bet 10 Monaco v Lapenti 7pts X 2.18= 15.4pts won Current betting bank = 109.40pts Bet 11 Zabaleta v Carraz 13.75pts returned Bet 12 Squillari v Lee 5pts lost Bet 13 Pavel v Massu 10.5pts returned Bet 14 Clement v Ljudicic 5pts lost Bet 15 Lopez v Ascione 5pts lost Bet 16 Ginepri v Gaudio 11.3pts returned Current betting bank = 114.95pts Bet 17 Robredo v O Rochus 5pts lost Bet 18 Dent v Bjorkman 5pts lost Bet 19 Mello v scrichaphan 5pts lost Bet 20 Spadeo v Safin 13,75pts returned Bet 21 Schalken v Canas Void 5pts returned Bet 22 Malisse v Costa 17pts returned Bet 23 Manaco v Keurten 13.8pts returned Current betting bank = 129.5pts Bet 24 Chela v Coria 5pts lost Bet 25 Benneteau v Ljudicic 15pts returned Bet 26 Kiefer v Ginepri 5pts lost Bet 27 Gonzalez v Novak 10.5pts returned Current betting bank = 135pts Bet 28 Monaco v Scrichaphan 5pts lost Bet 29 Hrbaty v Moya 5pts lost Bet 30 Hernych v Robredo 5pts lost Bet 31 Melisse v Canas 5pts lost Bet 32 Keifer v Grosjean 7pts bet = 17.64pts returned Bet 33 Pavel v Martin 7pts bet = 19.6pts returned Bet 34 Gonzalez v Nadal 7pts bet = 14.28pts returned Bet 35 Spadea v Scrichaphan 7pts lost Current betting bank = 138.52pts (122.3pts) 31/3/04 Mr intesities points total at the same point in brackets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 27, 2004 Author Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: Mr I's Tennis System fender mate, you're not using your calculator right. For example, 5pts X 2.4= 12pts won. No, that is 12pts returned, 7pts won. If you do the sums correctly, after those 10 bets my bank would stand at 109.4pts;) . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DoctorOfDanger Posted April 27, 2004 Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: ... fender progressive staking plans don't work period. 'Severe' just work less well than 'moderate', as they are further away from good money management. That is implicit in your own statement. What is a severe system? There are two aspects to your system: 1) the average stakes are higher when you use a progressive system - are you factoring this into account? 2) You are loss chasing which eventually leads to bigger losses I'll suggest to you again, nicely of course :p , that you read up some proper studies of such systems - many of which you won't even need to leave this site for. Why change your stakes after a loss - are you any more likely to win money on the next bet, just because you lost the last one? You're not. Therefore you are just risking more money on what is essentially the same profit potential. Do you know how easy it is to have a long losing run - I suggest you look in the punters tools section and play with some of the risk analysis tools there Your statement that "Level stakes don't make profit worth talking about over the long run" is quite frankly nonsense. I presume we can both accept that profitable sports betting is not a get rich quick scheme, it is a long grind. Kelly-type staking is the best for maximising bank growth, but it is risky. Fixed-bank (as opposed to current bank) Kelly staking is the best of the non-current-bank strategies, provided you can estimate your edge reasonablyu accurately. Level stakes and level profits are about equal in terms of profitability, but level profits will be less risky. Any of the above will comfortably outperform progressive, loss-chasing, D'Alembert etc systems under almost any criteria over any reasonably number of bets. As for things going up and down like a yo-yo, I can only conclude that you've never done any comparitive numerical studies of progressive versus level stakes or you'd see how back-to-front that assertation is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 27, 2004 Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: Mr I's Tennis System (This message was left blank) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 27, 2004 Author Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: Mr I's Tennis System No, I am certain mine is correct. What you have done is do -5 or -7 or whatever when a bet loses, which is right. But when I win, true my return may be 12pts however I have had to outlay 5pts for that which you have not taken into account. No wonder your Timeline has made so much money :lol (sorry, couldn't resist). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 27, 2004 Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: ... Doctor, I have been analysing systems and staking plans for nearly 20 years, so I am aware of what works and what doesn't. If your system isn't any good to start with no staking plan will work. But if you've a good strike rate overall as Intensity definately does, then a moderate increment staking plan will maximize the profits and cover much of the losses. There is no question about that. The reason most peoples increment staking plans don't work is because their system has a very low strike rate anyway, and they don't have a cut-off point. By that I mean they continue to increase every single day indefinitely. So if they incur a losing run of 10 or more days, of course they'll be wiped out. With intensities system, the guy averages 3 days between profitable days. That is the reason I designed the staking plan to rise for a maximum of three days. When it hits the winners on the third or fourth day. He not only makes profit, but recovers most of the money lost on the previous two days. It is the only way to go if you ever want to get anywhere with any system. Proof of the pudding will be in the results of my staking plan up against his level stakes don't you think ? If I were Intensity, I would be seriously pissed off right now when only a week ago he had a points increase of over 50% of his starting bank. And now being virtually right back to square one. Give it a couple of months Doctor, and lets see how my plan squares up against level stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 27, 2004 Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: Mr I's Tennis System My apologies Intensity. I understand your staking now. But nevertheless, after only 10 bets my staking has put me 10pts ahead of yours. Just let me bring mine up to date with yours, and lets see what you think. You must be pissed Intensity, having given nearly all your profit back ? I aim to show you that although you would have less profit even with my staking than you did last week, it will still be far above 100pts... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 27, 2004 Author Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: Mr I's Tennis System Right, you need to take off 5pts for the stake of the second bet. I had 5pts, I risked it. I was given back 16.5pts. That is a difference of 11.5pts. It maybe confusing as in the beginning I was taking off all the stakes at the time of placing the bet. Now I am showing a profit/loss only after the results are in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DoctorOfDanger Posted April 27, 2004 Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: ... With intensities system, the guy averages 3 days between profitable days. That is the reason I designed the staking plan to rise for a maximum of three days. When it hits the winners on the third or fourth day. He not only makes profit, but recovers most of the money lost on the previous two days. and what does that average of 3 days mean? Nothing! There is no guarantuee he hits winners on the 3rd or 4th or even 5th day. When a bad run like that happens, and it almost certainly will at some stage, hes in deep doo-doo. Proof of the pudding will be in the results of my staking plan up against his level stakes don't you think ? Verification maybe, not proof, but only over a long series of bets Give it a couple of months Doctor, and lets see how my plan squares up against level stakes. Why wait, why not run a simulation based on the information you have about his edge, average stakes etc? I'll also ask you to make sure that you are comparing like with like - i.e. same average stake size, which system gives you higher yield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 27, 2004 Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: ... Doctor there is only one factor of any importance when comparing one staking plan/system to another. PROFIT! That is what we're all doing this for in the first place. Intensity has the best strike rate I have ever seen for any system, even though he has only been running it for 5 weeks. Even if his strike rate drops by 25%. My plan will still turn a profit for his system. Level stakes on the other hand will guarantee a decent into the red. An average means everything Doctor. If you're to truly exploit the potential of a good system. I am not surprized by your scepticism, it's almost text-book in predictability. But I have maDe profit using increment staking plans on systems that only deliver 50% of the strike rate, Intensity does. The point is this, when you hit that 10plus losing run, you're far ahead enough in points profit. To ride it out and still be IN PROFIT. You will see what I am talking about once I am on par with Intensities up to date results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DoctorOfDanger Posted April 27, 2004 Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: ... Doctor there is only one factor of any importance when comparing one staking plan/system to another. PROFIT! Bollocks. What about risk? Every staking plan is a tradeoff between risk and potential return. Intensity has the best strike rate I have ever seen for any system 42%??? You need to get out more :p Anyhow, strike rate of itself isn't important. You can have a 90% strike rate and still lose money My plan will still turn a profit for his system. Level stakes on the other hand will guarantee a decent into the red If level stakes won't turn a profit from his system then neither will your system in the long run. You have already acknowledged that the staking strategy won't turn a bad system around, so I can only assuming that you are implying that levels stakes can make a good system bad? I am not surprized by your scepticism, it's almost text-book in predictability It is scepticism based on a weight of empirical evidence. I have seen none to the contrary and you seem strangely hesitant to supply it. The point is this, when you hit that 10plus losing run, you're far ahead enough in points profit. To ride it out and still be IN PROFIT How do you know? You might hit that early on. You have already said that 'severe' systems don't work. What is severe? Where is the transition from those that do work to those that don't, and more importantly why is that transition there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DoctorOfDanger Posted April 27, 2004 Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: ... Mr. I I have sent you a PM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 27, 2004 Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: ... Doctor you're the exact type of thinker who I love to prove wrong. Just keep watching the updating I am doing for Intensities system/results. Forget what you think you know to be 100% UNBEATABLE. Money management is over half the battle to turning a good long term profit. You will see.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DoctorOfDanger Posted April 27, 2004 Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: ... Doctor you're the exact type of thinker who I love to prove wrong. :lol and you're the type of non-thinker I occasionally have to prove wrong :p Money management is over half the battle to turning a good long term profit. You will see.. I agree, and I do see :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 27, 2004 Author Share Posted April 27, 2004 Re: ... fender, if you are going to continually update the results for my system using your staking, I suggest you start a new thread to do so. If they stay in this thread people will become confused as there will be two sets of records. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted April 28, 2004 Share Posted April 28, 2004 Re: ... :lol I've been waiting for Fender and Mick to cross paths I was hoping you'd pop your head into At The Races Mick, give Seen and the boys a hand ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CJ Mars Posted April 28, 2004 Share Posted April 28, 2004 Re: ... Love at first sight here :rollin Irrestible Force (DoD) vs Immovable Object (Fender) anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted April 28, 2004 Share Posted April 28, 2004 Re: ... :rollin I can't pick a winner CJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 28, 2004 Share Posted April 28, 2004 Re: ... Intensity relax, all my updating will be on the same post on page 8, so you'll have one long list to see the benefits of a 3 step staking plan. Kindest regards fender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 28, 2004 Author Share Posted April 28, 2004 Re: ... OK fender. Now **** off everyone and fight on your thread ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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