Mr Intensity Posted April 22, 2004 Author Share Posted April 22, 2004 Re: ... Hopefully getting back on track with these: SANTORO v Nalbandian @ 4.60 Canbet 1.39pts MASSU v Henman @ 2.00 WillHill 5pts SCHUETTLER v Hewitt @ 2.62 Bet365 3.09pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted April 22, 2004 Share Posted April 22, 2004 .. :rollin good luck with those Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 22, 2004 Author Share Posted April 22, 2004 Re: .. Whats with the :rollin ? :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Fin090 Posted April 22, 2004 Share Posted April 22, 2004 Re: .. Man they're some gutsy bets, Mr I. The only one I'd have confidence in is Massu but now I've said that it will be the other 2 that are winners and not Massu. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted April 22, 2004 Share Posted April 22, 2004 ... sorry mr i, i can see how you have misconstrued that, that wasnt how it was meant. i was :rollin at your "before this thread i didnt know what it was" comment re yield. i thought it was funny. sorry:o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DoctorOfDanger Posted April 22, 2004 Share Posted April 22, 2004 Re: ... I'm with you on the Schuettler bet but not the other two. I actually think there is value on Henman and Nalbandian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 22, 2004 Author Share Posted April 22, 2004 Re: ... Man they're some gutsy bets, Mr I. Balls of steel;) That's fine David, just looked a bit weird :ok . Doc, I hope Henman and Bandy get a twating after screwing me yesterday :p . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 23, 2004 Author Share Posted April 23, 2004 Re: ... Another losing day. Just can't seem to get it right this tournament. SANTORO v Nalbandian @ 4.60 Canbet 1.39pts >: LOST loss 1.39pts MASSU v Henman @ 2.00 WillHill 5pts >: LOST loss 5pts SCHUETTLER v Hewitt @ 2.62 Bet365 3.09pts :) WON profit 5pts Daily loss = 1.39pts Starting bank = 100pts Current bank = 132.61pts Profit = 32.61pts W/L = 42/52 Total staked = 406.04pts Yield = 8.03% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Fin090 Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 Re: ... Unlucky mate, thought Massu would do the biz against Henman (who along with Zimonjic dumped Massu and Gonzalez out of the doubles too). I know you don't like odds on picks but how about SAFIN 2-0 v Martin, it's 8/13 @ bet365 and I'm sure you can find better else where. Safin has met Martin 5 times and won all 5, 4 of which were in straight sets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 23, 2004 Author Share Posted April 23, 2004 Re: ... Looks pretty good that Fin, I'm going to have a look around to try and get 2.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 23, 2004 Author Share Posted April 23, 2004 Re: ... I have decided to add a new dimension to the system, and that is to bet that a match will go to 3 sets i.e. back both guys to win 2-1. I think this will only happen rarely tho. Nalbandian v Coria 3 SETS @ 2.31 Bet365 3.82pts (Bandy 2-1 @ 5.5 1.61pts, Coria 2-1 @ 4.00 2.21pts) Henman v Scheuttler 3 SETS @ 2.12 Bet365 4.47pts (Tim 2-1 @ 4.0 2.37pts, Sch 2-1 @ 4.5 2.1pts) Hope that makes sence! No proper bets for tomorrow!!:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pompeybelle Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 Re: Mr I's Tennis System Good luck with that Mr I. Agree that Coria and Shuettler will be taken to 3 sets so have gone with Safin 2-0 @ 4/7 Moya 2-0 @ 8/13 Coria 2-1 @ 3/1 Shuettler 2-1 @ 3/1 All at 365 for a small stakes acca. :ok Always wondered why tennis coverage was low on the 'Other Sports' forum and just realised you were in here :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 23, 2004 Author Share Posted April 23, 2004 Re: Mr I's Tennis System :lol I'll always be in here with some selections. You just need to catch me on a winning run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 23, 2004 Author Share Posted April 23, 2004 Re: Mr I's Tennis System I'm surprised Bet365 have cut the odds on Schuettler 2-1 AND Henman 2-1. They must be watching 8o . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 23, 2004 Author Share Posted April 23, 2004 Re: Mr I's Tennis System BTW if anyone wants to talk tennis I'll have some opinions in Other Sports :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 24, 2004 Author Share Posted April 24, 2004 Re: ... Starting to hate this tournament. Nalbandian v Coria 3 SETS @ 2.31 Bet365 3.82pts >: LOST loss 3.82pts Henman v Scheuttler 3 SETS @ 2.12 Bet365 4.47pts >: LOST loss 4.47pts Starting bank = 100pts Current bank = 124.32pts Profit = 24.32pts W/L = 42/54 Total staked = 404.33pts Yield = 6.01% :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 24, 2004 Author Share Posted April 24, 2004 Re: ... Right, must end this losing run. CORIA 2-0 v Safin @ 2.25 Ladbrokes 4pts MOYA 2-0 v Schuettler @ 2.20 WillHill 4.17pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 24, 2004 Share Posted April 24, 2004 Re: ... Mr intensity you usually come over to the horseracing/greyhound forum to take the mick. So I decided to visit your playground. And you know this system you've got here is actually very good. I noticed at one point you were up to over 150 pts, which is an excellent turnover for a 100 pt bank. I am sorry to see you've dropped back down. I don't know much about how you bet. Maybe you'd take the time to explain it in more detail to me ? But I think if you're a little bit more selective about what you bet on. You are on to a real winner here. Kindest regards fender... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 24, 2004 Author Share Posted April 24, 2004 Re: ... :lol Hi fender, sorry about all that, I'll let your posted results prove me wrong :ok . I don't know much about how you bet. Maybe you'd take the time to explain it in more detail to me ? First of all the system is not mechanical so quite a bit is down to my feeling/knowledge :lol of the game. I can give out a couple of ideas tho; Firstly, I try to pick one or two guys who have impressed me during qualifying or who I fancy to have a good week. I will then try to follow them through the draw, betting on them on most occasions except when I really don't see them winning or the odds are prohibative. As an example, last week my man was Haas, it was perfect as he went all the way and won the tournament. This week it was Benneteau, unfortunately it didn't work as he went out in the 1st round to Hewitt. The other idea is my new one, I think that if I find a match where I feel the players are playing a pretty similar level and past H2H shows close matches (I may bet without H2H) then I can assume about a 50% chance of it going to 3 sets (crude I know). Therefore, if I can get over evens then thats VALUE. But I think if you're a little bit more selective about what you bet on. I don't agree with this. I am going for a high turnover of the bank so need a lot of bets. I recall you saying you wanted at least a trebling of the bank in a year??? This is very tough. However, I reckon I can turnover 4000pts in a season, so with a 5% yield I would have 300pts in a year ;) . **** it, 8% and I would have 420pts :lol . Any more questions please ask. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 24, 2004 Share Posted April 24, 2004 Re: ... Thankyou for explaining that in more detail for me Mr Intensity. I know its hard to treble a betting bank in a year. When I first began using my Timeline system 9 months ago, my staking was very undisciplined,And I was risking as much as 40% at a time on trap 3 or 4. luckily for me they didn't let me down and for the first 7 months my betting bank grew by an average of 49% a month. As a result I was able to turn £200 into nearly £4,700 over that period. As you know I use a progressive staking plan, which coupled with a high strike rate made this possible. I wouldn't take such risks now. I now risk an average of 6% of my bank on any one betting run of 7 bets. And try to achieve a monthly growth of about 8%. if I am able to achieve this then by the end of the year, my current total of £4,860 will grow to approximately 9,000 and I will be very happy with that. If itcontinues like that throughout 2005 it will grow to approximately £22,000 which represents an annual growth of about 140% and I will be more than satisfied with that. Kindest regards Fender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CJ Mars Posted April 24, 2004 Share Posted April 24, 2004 Re: ... The only thing I like more than systems (in gambling terms anyway :lol ) is staking plans. My ideal goal is to double my bank in a given year. I’ve never come close mind although last year was good and this year has started well. Took me a long time to realize but what’s really helped me this year has been a move away from level stakes punting. While its true that a staking plan can never in the long run turn a losing system profitable a winning system’s returns can only be improved by a better staking plan such as Kelly / fixed profits or so on. Not a fan of progressive staking but again with a winning system that too will return $$. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 25, 2004 Author Share Posted April 25, 2004 Re: ... CORIA 2-0 v Safin @ 2.25 Ladbrokes 4pts >: LOST loss 4pts MOYA 2-0 v Schuettler @ 2.20 WillHill 4.17pts >: LOST loss 4.17pts Starting bank = 100pts Current bank = 116.15pts Profit = 16.15pts W/L = 42/56 Total staked = 412.50pts Yield = 3.92% :sad :sad :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 25, 2004 Share Posted April 25, 2004 Re: ... Absolutely CJ, I think Mr Intensity's system would benifit from even a very slight progressive staking plan. As I followed his bets I can see a very good strike rate. At the moment he's going up & down. But if he even increased by 20% each betting day. When he hits the winners they'll not only make him profit, but recover more of the pts lost from the previous losers. What is the point of having an excellent system like this and not making the most of it? As an experiment I am going to go through his bets, and work a slight progressive plan against them. And let him know where he would now stand in terms of pts. I know he'll probably be totally against this, but it will be interesting. The guys strike rate is exceptional, and he should still be around the 150pt mark even with his recent losing run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 25, 2004 Author Share Posted April 25, 2004 Re: ... Look forward to this fender:ok I admit to knowing very little about staking myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 25, 2004 Share Posted April 25, 2004 Re: ... (This message was left blank) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Fin090 Posted April 25, 2004 Share Posted April 25, 2004 Re: ... Wow good job Fender, that was a greta read. Looks good Mr.I. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DoctorOfDanger Posted April 25, 2004 Share Posted April 25, 2004 Re: ... Mr. I there is plenty of information here in this section (or in another site I could name :lol ) on the merits and demerits of a progressive plan. In short don't - they don't work. Any plan can be tweaked to show marvellous results on a particular subset of data - but will it always work? There are 4 things that should determine the size of your stake: 1) The 'edge' you have on an individual bet 2) The odds available for that bet 3) The size of your betting bank 4) Your personal pain threshold for risk/reward balance I really don't have the energy right now to go into a lengthy denunciation of what fender posted, but have a search in the archives and you'll find it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 25, 2004 Author Share Posted April 25, 2004 Re: ... Don't understand fender. Three days ago these were my bets: SANTORO v Nalbandian @ 4.60 Canbet 1.39pts LOST loss 1.39pts MASSU v Henman @ 2.00 WillHill 5pts LOST loss 5pts SCHUETTLER v Hewitt @ 2.62 Bet365 3.09pts WON profit 5pts How the hell do I get +13.1pts from those? :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 25, 2004 Author Share Posted April 25, 2004 Re: ... Hopefully I can end the tournament with a winner :\ CORIA 3-0 v Schuettler @ 2.43 Betfair 3.5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 25, 2004 Author Share Posted April 25, 2004 Re: ... I understand and agree with all that Doc, but hey, everything is worth a look at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.