Catterick 16/07/08

[billy the punter]

3.30 Only seven runners but a good pace is assured with three early pacers in the line-up. Kinout is one of those and I'm hoping he'll handle getting taken on for the lead - he has ran well without leading in the past. He has had 15 runs to date: 9 at 5f 5 at 6f 1 at 7f His form at 5f is far superior as he struggles to see out 6f. His form at 5f reads: 534217364 A breakdown of those 5f runs; The first three of those came in 2yo maidens were he ran close to useful types - Achilles Of Troy, Starlit Sands, and Look Busy. He wasnt tried over 5f until FTO this season (March) where he finished 2nd (clear of 3rd) at Musselburgh off 73. He followed up by winning NTO off the same mark at Wolverhampton beating the steady yardstick Valhillen. He lost nothing in defeat when 7th at Thirsk behind Mey Blossom. The 2nd and 4th (Hamish McGonagall and Cape) are useful and Kinout was actually 2nd on the far side 'race'. He is also 7lb better off for beating today's rival Firenza Bond. That was off a mark of 77. He caught a tartar when trying to give Espy 9lb at Kemtpon when finishing 3rd. The race was probably too warm on the next 5f start when he was 6th of 8 to Befortyfour in a Class 3. Was dropped to 72 after that and his final 5f start was his penultimate start and he was 4th at Hamilton, beaten 2.5l. The winner (Invincible Lad) won bolted up again, the 2nd (Rothsay Dancer) has run three fine races since (221) and the 3rd (Kings College Boy) was a fast finishing 4th yesterday at Beverley. Kinout has been dropped a further pound and now looks very well handicapped on all of his 5f form. His best form is around a bend or on underlations (or both) so it's no surprise he has run well here already. He looks ready to strike again soon. It could be today providing he doesn't get upset by the likely frantic early pace. Will be keeping a close eye on his entries over the coming weeks. Kinout 100% of stake 4.30 The current favourite Light The Light from the Wallace yard wouldn't have to be that decent to make a winning debut but it's not my sort of bet. Naias ran 2nd on her debut here but the winner was rated just 49 and it looked a woeful race. Manchestermaverick ran ok on debut but the 1-2 looked different class to the rest at Lingfield. That race looks streets ahead of the race Naias was 2nd in LTO though. Imperial Djay started his career here with two decent runs on his first two starts. The 2nd was especially pleasing, he was 4th to the decent Dubai Meydan, the 2nd and 3rd (Ramaad and Marning Star) have won three races between them since (from 6 races). Imperial Djay was 8l clear of the 4th. Disappointed on his 3rd start at Ponty when 13/13. Highly tried for his next start, a Class 4 handicap, and he probably ran to form into 9th (of 14). Ran well on his penultimate start when carrying top weight in a Wolverhampton Class 6 handicap. He wasn't beaten far into 4th wearing a visor for the first time. He hung late on though and he obviously isn't 100% genuine. Back to Catterick for his run LTO, again in a handicap. Was beaten just over 3l. He obviously isn't as good as his 2nd run suggests but this is a shocking race and I'll give him a chance in this. Blinkers replace the visor, although I've no idea if that will make a difference. The yard were on a long losing run but they had a winner Sunday and had three near misses at Beverley yesterday. Imperial Djay 75% of stake Manchestermaverick 25% of stake To be honest, these won't be my biggest stakes of the day. I'm not sure the two main selections are to be fully trusted, but they are value and if they show their best they will go close.

[fintron]

Re: Catterick 16/07/08 3.30 Discanti - the 9/4 fav here is Know No Fear, but Tim Easterby's Discanti finished infront of it at Haydock in May (Know No Fear gave away 5 lbs). Today is is Discanti that carries more weight, conceding 5 lbs, but, importantly, he has been seen again since that Haydock race and showed he has improved, with a 2 length win from Killer Class and I Confess, the latter of whom was rated 82. Discanti will appreciate the fast ground and has recorded both of his career runs over the minimum trip. 5/2