Beverley - Tuesday 15th July

[mattmcandrew]

Okay I might as well kick this off as I am reaaaaaaaaaaaaally bored. I'll start out with the 2:45 which is...nothing to write home about, but we'll see... I've had my usual gander through the form and the stats and so on. I'm one of those guys who hunts for reasons to back outsiders. This particular race...it might be worth everyone's while to take a chance with Personal Choice. She ran alright in her first race after a year out. Okay, the standard of horse in that race wasn't all that high, but...she still showed a bit of promise, which was good after a long absence. Next race...not so good, but it was a mile on the AW at Southwell, so excuses could be made that she didn't like the surface and couldn't handle the extra furlong. The more the ground dries out, the more at home she will be, or so I think, but I do expect a bit of improvement and for me, she has place claims. Market will open at...something like 25/1 or 33/1.

[fintron]

Re: Beverley - Tuesday 15th July Billy Hills and BTP were discussing lowly rated animals yesterday, you think Nolan is bad, then look at Call of Ktulu's rating in the 2.15 claimer. Surely that one can't be much better than a Blackpool donkey?! 3.45 Hits Only Vic - went down by 0.75 lengths to Mister Arjay LTO at Catt but he was sent off too short and conceded quite a few lbs to his rival. Mister Arjay runs again here too but he's carrying a 6 lb penalty and must find something extra now at the revised weights. Hits Only Vic is versatile with regards to the ground, registering wins on ground ranging from heavy to Gd/Frm, and hopefully he can reverse placings with Brian Ellison's runner. 4/1 4.15 This race is over 5f so the draw will most likely come into play seen as this is Beverley. The one that makes most appeal from a high draw is Sands Crooner, who ran respectably in defeat up in class at Haydock LTO and who handles a bit of cut in the ground. He's 7 lbs above his highest ever winning turf mark, but should be able to score off 62 here given that he's won off 74 on the AW before, and dropping down to class 6 company here is in his favour. 5/1 5.15 Autumn Charm - hasn't won on turf to date but has won a couple of times on the fibresand to show that there is something there. True, sand form cannot always be transferred onto turf, but her pedigree suggests she could score on Gd/Sft ground here. Made her first start for current stable LTO, after being claimed out of D W Chapman's stable after finishing a 0.5 l second at Southwell, but may have been raced over an unsuitable distance that day. The drop back to a mile here should be in her favour. 10/1

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Beverley - Tuesday 15th July 3.45 THE WHIRLINGDERVISH E/W 13/2 Horse is in good form. Won this last year. Should go close again today slight worry that last years winning jockey is on the fav but apprentice on top is very capable imo so will take a chance. 4.15 NO WORRIES YET E/W 25/1 The minuses are the draw and the run lto but willing to forget that will go on the ground 1/1 here at Bev 3/3 in class 6's jockey is in good form with a couple of winners last night and has 2w 2p from seven rides on this horse.25's at WH looks very big. 4.45 TIZZY MAY E/W 11/1 Ladies race so low stake but with a good draw and a half decent jock on top and has a bit of pull at the weight with the fav is worth an e/w bet imo. Ground should be ok and 2 nds from 2 runs here.

[billy the punter]

Re: Beverley - Tuesday 15th July Fin, did you see the post I started on Saturday night? One of Nolan's was rated.......1

[billy the punter]

Re: Beverley - Tuesday 15th July 2.45 Beverley Have this down to five at the moment. I've backed Young Gladiator on most of his recent starts (bar LTO). He ran well despite hating the fast ground when 3rd at Yarmouth (off 65) and then ran well off the same mark when 3rd at Newcastle, the 2nd Yamal won NTO. I didn't back him LTO as I wasn't certain he needed the visor that was fitted for the first time. He ran the worst race of his career and they are taken off here. Could find a small race off his current mark of 63 although this may be a touch hot. Grit has run solidly since getting off the mark and I think there is at least another race in him off this sort of mark. This extended 7f should be ideal. The handicapper has taken a real chance by giving Carpe Diem a mark of just 57. Well handicapped on his 6th at Ponty on his penultimate start. 1st rated 74 2nd rated 67 4th rated 57 5th rated 67 6th Cape Diem 7th recent winner off 65 8th rated 59 10th rated 58 Most of those marks are wha those horses were given after this race, considering Carpe Diem looked like he'd improve for the run (wasn't given a hard time) then a mark of 57 is very fair. Looks ready for another try at 7f. Isabella's Fancy shaped ok on the A/W LTO but has drifted all day on betfair and that is always a worry with this yard. Lucky Character has the ability to be better than it's rating but it was a poor race he contested LTO. Carpe Diem 45% of stake 2.32 betfair Grit 25% of stake 8.8 betfair Young Gladiator 20% of stake 21 betfair Isabellas Fancy 5% of stake 34 betfair Lucky Character 5% of stake 25 betfair Carpe Diem/Grit/Young Gladiator/Isabellas Fancy/Lucky Character 5 horse combos going top-heavy on the Carpe Diem lines.

[billy the punter]

Re: Beverley - Tuesday 15th July I missed the juicy prices on Carpe Diem, so although I make him the most likely winner - he is a saver only.

[billy the punter]

Re: Beverley - Tuesday 15th July Shocking first bet. Might be a long old day. :\

[DJ]

Re: Beverley - Tuesday 15th July

3.45 THE WHIRLINGDERVISH E/W 13/2 Horse is in good form. Won this last year. Should go close again today slight worry that last years winning jockey is on the fav but apprentice on top is very capable imo so will take a chance. 4.15 NO WORRIES YET E/W 25/1 The minuses are the draw and the run lto but willing to forget that will go on the ground 1/1 here at Bev 3/3 in class 6's jockey is in good form with a couple of winners last night and has 2w 2p from seven rides on this horse.25's at WH looks very big. 4.45 TIZZY MAY E/W 11/1 Ladies race so low stake but with a good draw and a half decent jock on top and has a bit of pull at the weight with the fav is worth an e/w bet imo. Ground should be ok and 2 nds from 2 runs here.

Unlucky with Tizzy May, was beaten in the photo but I'm not so sure :unsure I had it to win and place myself, made a little profit but not like :eek

[fintron]

Re: Beverley - Tuesday 15th July

Fin, did you see the post I started on Saturday night? One of Nolan's was rated.......1

Yeah, saw that Billy and I agree with what you said. I think I read somewhere that the median BHA rating of flat horses in training is 58. It is just taking the mickey, i've seen 38 and 39 on the AW before, but never anything like 1!!