AFL Rd. 16.

[TazaD]

WOW! Best of luck to anyone trying to close out a tipping contest this week!!! :eek Brisbane will win...every single other game is a toss up, isn't it?! :\ Gunna be just about a totally totals weekend ahead. Looking at the odds, I'm a bit surprised Richmod are favs, but obviously not much in it...also a little surprised by Carlton @ 2.40, I reckon I'll like them with some points. :tongue2

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Will Hahn (foot) play? Sure Geelong are good but Ablett & Ling are a couple of promising types missing. The offer on WBD looks a sure goer to me. Would also be happy with some -14.5 Hawthorn or will take the toozon. Stronger line-up than they have been and will simply be too good for Saints IMO. Please talk me out of it somebody, but I like the toozon Freo also. Rich/Ess an even money affair IMO.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Freo without Solomon and Crowley...(mind you, does Crowley ever do anythig except annoy and whack people?)... Despite what 95% of people will be thinking (inc. some books, just reading the Sun on Monday)...the venue will actually suit the Dogs...Geelong are abuot a 5 goal better team in the Dome... ...and amazing history down there. Doggies won 5 of last 6...6 of 8 even, with Geelong's wins @ 1.14 and 1.28 favs. Mind you, all that goes back to 2005 and beyond...but still. In their last 10 games down there, Geelong have only played interstate teams, Richmond and Melbourne! Still, 2.50 looks abuot right to me...I think I'll be far more interested in a total. Hahn will play...still unsure about Griffen who's father passed away on the weekend I believe... :( Bit of word that Black and Brown will both miss for Brisbane. Interesting that Hawthorn have won 9 of last 10 in the dome...the one loss was v. the Saints last year.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Solomon 8??!! Can anyone really sit here and tell us it was worse than Barry Hall's?... (and Crowly none!) Crazy. Anyway...Carlton +12.5, or either team under 15.5? Can the Blues win by 16+ I guess is the question...and I guess the answer is probably no. Taken either team under 15.5 @ Adelaide (3.20) Tempted by Essendon, but McVeigh out, Lovett out, and down to no more than 25 fit men to pick a team from... ...obviously Richo likely back...but still, if it gets out to 2.50+ ala the Carlton game, it'll have to be a serious thought.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Taken either team under 15.5 @ Adelaide (3.20)

Without checking, I don't think any of these are ever blowouts, are they?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Thought this one was really funny. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f22/massive-bookmaker-massive-mistake-help-70089/ I'm not game to reply again because I really don't know who's having who on - surely we're the stooges in this?? :unsure

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. And you think some of my posts are tough to get a read on! ;) Couple of pretty funny posts in there, I must say...I really do have to remember that there are more pages on this site than just this and the US one... :$ Yeah, 3 of last 4 Showdowns have been (14, 8 & 6)...and I know one of us (sorry...mind blank...) likes the old tri-bet in 'rivalry round' situations... ...but this time, it's more about the game imo. Crows clearly gunna struggle to kick a score...topped 74 ONCE in their last 7!...now no Burton, Porplyzia... ...Port same problems, just one more than 81 in last 5. Low scoring, tight game all day I suspect...much like the last quarter @ Port last week. Port have had an amazing 7 of last 10 at home decided under 15!...take out their smacking of Nth in the finals last year and their av. losing margin in the last 9 at home has been 4.2!! Incredible. Still undecided about Carlton. Last week's game v. St. K. worries me, as the Saints managed to hold them up through the middle...but the fact is still that Swans av. just 42 I50's away from home, and look to have personel worries this week. Buchanon out...Kennelly's shoulder consistantly out...No Hall, no Davis still...if Nick Smith was the best they had to come in last week it could be saying something! I'll post an Essendon injury list I found on another site... Tom Hislop Groin Assess Tom missed last week's game with groin soreness. The injury is being assessed. Heath Hocking Calf Assess Heath missed last weekend's game with calf soreness. The injury is being assessed. Mal Michael Ribs Test Mal received a heavy knock to the ribs playing for Bendigo against Port Melbourne. Darcy Daniher Back 1 week Darcy has been experiencing back soreness. He is expected to be available in one week. Courtenay Dempsey Leg 2 weeks Courtenay injured his leg in the clash with Geelong. He will miss at least two more weeks of football. Tayte Pears Hip 2 weeks Tayte has a hip injury which is expected to keep him out of football for two weeks. Bachar Houli Groin 2 weeks Bachar has missed the past few weeks with a groin injury. Jason Johnson Calf 3 weeks Jason re-injured his calf during a training session. He will miss at least three more weeks of football. Andrew Lee Shoulder 3 weeks Andrew had a shoulder operation. He is expected to miss another three weeks of football. David Myers Foot 3 weeks David pulled up with a sore foot following the Fremantle game and will miss three more weeks. Scott Gumbleton Collarbone 4 weeks Scott fractured his collarbone playing for Bendigo against Geelong. He underwent surgery and can resume in four weeks. Courtney Johns Knee Season Johns needed a knee reconstruction after injuring his knee. Alwyn Davey Knee Season Davey has torn the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee and will require a full reconstruction. He is expected to have surgery in the next week or two. Jason Winderlich Back Season Jason has undergone surgery to repair an on-going disc problem. Mark Mcveigh Knee 3-5 weeks Mark has had a previous injury flare up with and will require surgery Andrew Lovett Suspended That is 16 people unavailable for selection. Currently all we have to pick from are: Tom Bellchambers Clearly not ready yet, needs to get appropraite match fitness to be able to go with senior games. Cale Hooker Does not have the body for senior football yet, will get belted around. Needs another pre-season. Jarrod Atkinson Shown good form for Bendigo, will come in Ricky Dyson Was struggling for form a bit, but looks a certain inclusion now. We have a replacement for those two omissions, but what happens if someone else goes down? ........... ...the numbers look bad, but honestly, so does most of that list! :D Bombers look far better to me at each end...if they can still get the weight of ball forward they win this one...only McVeigh concerns me, he's been good. :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Someone have a decent chat to me about the Friday Night game... I just can't ever seem to get a decent handle on Collingwood, so I may be seeing this one a bit skewiff aswell... ...but Kangas...super tough draw. (Albeit by their own doing!) 6 of last 9 interstate!!!...the 3 games at home...against the top 3!! Madness... ...and won 2 of them, lost to Geelong by just 13. I haven't been rating them, but looking at this...Take out a terrible Rd. 1. performance, and they've lost just 2 games in Melbourne all season...against 2 of the top 3, by 16 and 13... ...and yet for some reason I seem to be baulking at taking them +15.5 this week?? :unsure Won the last meeting with the 'Pies...lost last year's game (Rd. 1 2007) by just 3 points, despite having +7 I50's and 7 more shots. Did give up 63 I50's to Collingwood this season, which is a bit of a worry I guess (-11), but had the shots, inc. Corey Jones' 1.5 No Rocca, Fraser kicked 4! No McIntosh tho, and to a lessor extent no Edwards, but Petrie's stood up, and McMahon looks solid up forward. Every time I go to ask 'what have Collingwood done?', the Geelong game whacks me in the face... ...but beaten freo (MCG), Richmod, WC, a depleted Bombers...Sydney as usual, a Crows team on the down-swing with injuries mid-game...and St. Kilda in the Dome, with 2 less I50's and 1 less shot. Are the Kanga's any better than St. K.? Probably not really...(24 shots apiece @ GC says...well, exactly what we all think I guess! :) )... ...but do they have to be to keep this one close?? I understand the 'dangers' of direct comparisons, but both have played the Dogs in the Dome... Nth... +5 I50's, +3 shots, -5 clearances, -6 contested pos. (won by 3) Coll....+2 I50's, +0 shots, -2 and -6 (lost by 10) Also pretty tight numbers v. Richmond at the MCG...although early in the year... Basically, it's far closer than I first thought it was (or at least shapes up to be!)...if they tick up to 3.00 it's rediculous...having said that, there's every chance two and a half goals will come in very handy indeed! 'Roos have lost just 1 of last 7 at the Dome by more than 16...Collingwood won just 2 of last 7 there all up, and just 1 by more than 9. Friday Night evens things up more still, with North losing just 1 of their last 10 by more than 13 (and that was away @ Adelaide). 'Pies 6-4 last 10 SU...but just 3-7 ats this number, and take out the Geelong pumping last game and they have an av. winning margin in the previous 9 of just 3 points!! :eek [Friday Night games] Why is it so hard to have faith in the Kangaroos? :\

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. I don't have any deep analysis for you. I look at fixtures and will almost immediately get a feel for whether or not there is a strong margins bet in the game (I like to call it jedi betting, because you go with the force...). Anyway, this one has the U15.5 feel to it.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Sometimes (often even!) the best way to be. :ok Definately crossed my mind too for this one...but (relatively!) crappy odds. Not sure how Crows/Port can be a higher price? [Have seen Coll/Nth @ 3.15] Anyway, I find it's far more soothing to my temperament if I just have to will one team home...not the other aswell to keep it close! :lol If you like either under, means I'm definately swayed to the +15. :cheers

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. I like to consider myself a margins specialist. I also hate line betting, because I hate having to be right more than 50% of the time. I also should say, I'm not immediately hooked by the Crows Port U15.5 (And I'm the one who has the rivalry round theory). I think it might have soemthing to do with the fact that Port's recent cliffhangers at AAMI have been against interstate teams and that because it's the Crows theres now a misconception that a close game is now even more likely. Best odds for Collingwood U15.5 is 3.25 (Eskander).

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Another bet I really like this weekend (It's technically a long term bet) is Daniel Bradshaw first player to kick 10 goals in a season @ 34 [TAB]. West Coast awful on the road and the fact that the Brown and Bradshaw show kicks such a high % of the Lions goals makes this is a must back. Also the game is on a Saturday night (Lions always score more on a Saturday night). If it doesn't come off this weekend, still got games against Carlton and Richmond to achieve. For a guy kicking at 73?% from set shots in a two man scoring team, the fact that he is last in betting is astounding (there is an any other option).

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Why is it so hard to have faith in the Kangaroos? :\

They're the second best group of players in the competion IMO v They're dumbly coached. Going back to the seventies your local footy coach would always encourage the play-on. Reason being, it brought results, but the fact of the matter it works because it means lots of right brain (superior) instinctive POSITIVE footy (I'll stop ;)). Some of these coaches seem compelled to come up game plans out of wanting to justify they're big pay packets instead of just letting them play. I'm not surprised to see that North are #16 for play-ons. When they have to, they are brilliant (WBD, Haw) but once ahead they revert to one of Laidley's think about it game plans and fall in hole EVERY time - I guess we've noted this in past - the latest being last week when instead of putting Port fully away they were lucky in the end - and same last time to Collingwood. There was a pacer I knew about that once it got to the lead in a race it always would let the others catch up. The good thing was that we made some killings on it because it was actually top class but when it went up in class we'd get the likes of 3.00, 4.50, 6.00 a place and it'd duely run 2nd or 3rd. I guess north are good to back as dogs but don't pay much a place when faves. Yes well they are better in Melb and play the Dome more than Collingwood. Collingwood are different. Well coached and don't think we should buy into their off form too much. They're top-5 IMO and I feel they should be UP for this - crows came out on a mission LW IMO. They do have a comparatively stronger line up than when the two first met IMO. A couple of North's first and second gamers (Goldstein & Ross) were great last week (with plenty press), so don't be surprised to see them back up poorly. Just another thing. Bit of bad blood from Eddy towards North. So I'd rate that a motivating factor in favour of North Anyway, as you know, I'm one of these totally weird bunts that's only interested in odds, regardless of who I like, so forced to have a bet I'd take the 2.90 roos but I'm not interested until >3.00? ;) Hey, you wanted chat :lol. If ya don't want chat, then AFL's the wrong thread ... you'd be looking for Tennis :loon ;) :eyes.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Crouchy...bare in mind that Brown may miss this week...now I know Brisbane were playing Geelong at the time, but last time Brown missed, Bradshaw had 3 kicks!! I'm guessing big Lance is fav? (What's Will Minson paying?) Taken Kangas +16.5, and now off to talk myself into taking the Doggies...:$ (Oh, and like I said...I don't specifically care that this is a showdown...just 2 teams I think will play a close one... ...although, two teams desperate to win can't hurt. We saw last meeting the Crows possess the ball for the last 4-5 minutes sitting on a 7 point lead!! :tongue2 ) I keep forgetting to drop my stat of the week!!...Over the last 4 games ESSENDON have the most I50's!!...av. 59 per game. (Geelong 58, Doggies 57) Madness.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

it works because it means lots of right brain (superior) .

That's a very hemisphericalist statement tho Ash... :spank

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Can't bring myself to back my own boys... ...but the more I look at the Saints... Hawks have just been doing enough...I know I got burnt by them last week, but a) Taking Sydney outside of NSW was silly for a start...and b) It was really only 5 minutes of football, sparked by a dubious mark, that took it out to the margin. Last 8 have Hawks scraping by Port and Melbourne...pumped by the Dogs, belted Essendon (more on that shortly!), scraped by Crows, beaten by North and beating 2 poor traveling teams at home. In the same 8, Saints have travelled 3 times, lost by 9 to Collingwood with +2 I50's and +1 shot, belted Melbourne, beaten by Dogs...scraped by Freo in a stinker! and beaten Carlton easily enough. Both have played a Lucas-less Essendon in the dome this year; Saints: +16 shots, +17 I50's, +15 contested, 1.70 shots per entry, 2.29 allowed... Hawks: +16 shots, +13 I50's, +18 contested, 1.57 shots per entry, 2.21 allowed... Obviously Hawthorn forward line looks far more likely...but I suspect Hudgeton will take Roughead, who he held in the 2nd meeting last year (didn't play in the first...although Barry Brooks, Brad Howard and Justin Sweeny did!! :eek )...and Franklin kicked his 5.5 in a losing effort. (Although Williams missed.) If Saints can bottle up Hawthorn's run like they did to Carlton last week (who were flying stats-wise at the time!), and they tend to do just just at the dome...then they should be able to keep this one in the balance. EDIT: Just to go on with that a bit...take out two games in which they were hurt badly by being hurt badly...Richmond they lost McGuire and Riewoldt mid-game, Freo they had Dal Santo and Milne out and lost Hayes at 1/4 time... ...they haven't been worse than -2 I50's for any game in Melbourne...and that included Geelong, Bulldogs and Collingwood.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Crouchy...bare in mind that Brown may miss this week...now I know Brisbane were playing Geelong at the time, but last time Brown missed, Bradshaw had 3 kicks!! I'm guessing big Lance is fav? (What's Will Minson paying?)

Not to happen is favourite at 1.38, BUddy at 5s. Minson not listed and so falls under any other player at 17s. Not sure if I like the chances this weekend more if Brown plays or not, but the key thing is that it's West Coast and they are away ;)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Can't bring myself to back my own boys...

2.73 now. It's a shame for you they're not stone motherless. You'd be rolling in it. :lol

That's a very hemisphericalist statement tho Ash... :spank

:D Well it's the instinctive side, anyway. Thought I'd cop a whack for lambasting the tennis thread, actually. So you guys agree with me, huh? :lol Roos out to 3.00 now ... ???

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. It's another tough contract for punters this week, with the plenty of games to steer clear off. Tonight's game perhaps has the most hingeing on it with both trying to claim a finals and top 4 spot respectively. North did everything but lose last week and weren't that impressive against Port. They do find something for the games they must win. Dropping Thompson was overdue, but Grant and Jones are sadly out of form but have been recalled. The Pies are now favourite to grab a spot in the top 4. They just need to shadow the Swans for the rest of the season and then nail them in round 21. Small forwards hold the key to this game with Medhurst, Didak and Thomas more likely to do damage. Both have poor records at the Dome this season, but the Pies must beat the teams below them and should win tonight. Davis is a late withdrawl. Richmond vs Essendon is a very even match up with plenty of goals on offer given decent weather. I don't see alot of accountability here with both forward lines looking strong enough to kick winning scores. Tigers look more dynamic in the midfield with Foley, Deledio and Johnson flying. As we enter the final third of the season, the Tigers are overdue to notch up their first home win at the MCG for the season. It looks like the heavyweight match of the season will be a victim of the weather. The team with the most grunt and willing to put it all on the line will prevail. Geelong's form cannot be faulted, braining any team they've faced. The strength comes from their defence and they need to be in full flight to stop the league's best attack. The Bulldogs have no fear of Skilled Stadium having won 5 of their last 6 there. The Bulldogs have been 5-10% off their game since their season's highlight 10 goal win over Brisbane. There wont be much in the game, but the Premiers should be in front at the siren. They will meet again in September, no doubt. The Eagles have won they're last 4 at the Gabba, but they have entered full tank mode. Brisbane have Black and Brown fully fit and this should give the Lions a percentage boosting victory and some much needed confidence. A big game at the Dome on Saturday night with the Saints starting to find their true form. Their forward line is starting to function properly and their midfield are starting to take their opponents on. They have a fairly decent record over the Hawks, but so did the Swans until last week. Hawthorn's conversion in front of goal is a concern, but whether they get the amount of opportunities they've had in the last few weeks is debatable. Another consideration is whether the Hawks are solely focussed on this game with a monster fortnight ahead. I'm leaning to the Hawks but the Saints are a massive show. If the Swans can match want they did last week, they should overcome the Blues. Their midfield will lockdown on Judd, Stevens and Murphy and their defence will keep Fevola quiet. They need to keep winning to hold off the Magpies and should break their losing streak here. The Showdown is an even money bet. Port are having problems supplying their forward line and the Crows are having trouble scoring. Goodwin, Thompson and McLeod will need to spend time up forward to kick them a decent score. The game is really to close to call with confidence. Freo should chalk up their third win over a vastly under strength Melbourne outfit. It's a perfect opportunity for Pavlich, Farmer and Tarrant to shine whilst the Demons have very little experience in the team and have an awful record in Perth. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Collingwood 3 - Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn 4 - Carlton, Sydney, Port Adelaide 5 - Richmond, St.Kilda 6 - Brisbane, Adelaide, Fremantle 7 - North Melbourne, Melbourne 8 - Essendon 9 - West Coast How many of your top 10 are playing. 10- St Kilda, Geelong, Carlton 9 - Collingwood, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Sydney 8 - Port Adelaide, Fremantle 7 - North Melbourne, Richmond, Essendon, West Coast, Adelaide 5 - Melbourne Predictor. North Melbourne 87 v Collingwood 103 Geelong 97 v Western Bulldogs 84 Richmond 108 v Essendon 105 St.Kilda 79 v Hawthorn 95 Brisbane 114 v West Coast 72 Carlton 82 v Sydney 87 Port Adelaide 74 v Adelaide 79 Fremantle 99 v Melbourne 71 Best Bets. Geelong MARGIN (1-39) Brisbane POINTS (-45.5) Fremantle LINE (-17.5) All the best for round 16.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. By careful (well, not really careful! :D) manipulation of the

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Richmond vs Essendon is a very even match up with plenty of goals on offer given decent weather. .

That I do agree with. What's the weather like over there now, please, anybody! No real threat of rain any tme soon (just looking at the radar)...it all seems to be heading SE to soak the 150 odd Doggies fans who could get tickets. :lol over 202.5 @ Centebet...or can get 2.44 by fiddling over 210.5 ;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Ess/Rich over 210.5 (2.44)...Dogs @ Cats under 190.5 (1.85) ...foot fault!

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Freo v. Melbourne under 199.5 (1.90) Big total due more to the last meeting than any kind of current form. Melbourne have had more than 24 shots just once since that game, and have av'd just under 21 in each of their last 8 @ 77 ppg. They've lost Robertson (4.3) and Green (2.0) from the last time they played Freo, and clearly struggle in WA anyway, not topping 93 in their last 6 over @ Subi @ just 80 ppg. Freo are struggling to score themselves, even if we take out last week's horror @ Geelong, they've topped 91 just once in their last 6. Both teams av'ing about 93 total I50's and just 21 shots each in their last 4... ...and if Essendon couldn't push Freo over 190 last home game, I suspect Melbourne will also struggle.

[-Loki-]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

Freo v. Melbourne under 199.5 (1.90) Big total due more to the last meeting than any kind of current form. Melbourne have had more than 24 shots just once since that game, and have av'd just under 21 in each of their last 8 @ 77 ppg. They've lost Robertson (4.3) and Green (2.0) from the last time they played Freo, and clearly struggle in WA anyway, not topping 93 in their last 6 over @ Subi @ just 80 ppg. Freo are struggling to score themselves, even if we take out last week's horror @ Geelong, they've topped 91 just once in their last 6. Both teams av'ing about 93 total I50's and just 21 shots each in their last 4... ...and if Essendon couldn't push Freo over 190 last home game, I suspect Melbourne will also struggle.

Love it;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. Done. :ok Pretty good weekend, considering the uncertainty at the start. Tennis, anyone?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 16.

16

9.82

1,112

50

Rd. Pts..................weekly..........overall....... Herald Sun Weighted Tipping... Fuggit...if only Carlton got up! (Essendon and Crows woulda been half handy too. :( )