Best Bet Of The Day - Weds 09/07/08

[billy the punter]

Good Luck Everyone 2.00 Newmarket (Class 2) BTP's patten pending pace-check: :lol

1. >>>
2. >>>
3. >>>>>>
4. >>>>>>>>>>>>
5. >>>>>>>>>>
6. >>>>>>>>>>>>
7. >>>>>>>>>>>>
8. >>>>
9. >>>
10. >>>>>>
11. >>>>>>>>
12. >>>
13. >>>>>>>>
14. >>>>>>>>>>
15. >>>>>>>>
16. >>>
17. >>>
18. >>>>>>
19. >>>>>>>>>
20. >>>>

The bias changes from year to year regardless of ground with highs and lows dominating on recent easy ground renewels. Pace is the only guide in my opinion. There is bundles of pace in the race so there really shouldn't be any major excuses - almost half the field like to be front rank plus. Low seems to have more pace though and with only one front runner drawn high (Great Charm) I think lows could have the edge. With four of the top five in the betting drawn 14 or higher, I'm getting stuck into some value drawn low. Carleton did well to finish 2nd to Ancien Regime despite being flattered by the distance due to the winner hanging. He disappointed NTO at York but I rarely worry about York form so I put him in with a chance here - acts on most going. Thebes is a big price and he ran better than the form suggests at Ascot (didn't stay), looks sure to be taken on for the lead though. With so much early toe in the race I wouldn't be surprised if this was set up for a finisher (providing they get a run!) - the most likely to fit that profile would be Cape Vale who I've backed fairly big on his previous two starts. Unbeaten at two he took my eye and was always going to be a horse I was going to be backing this year in handicaps. I decided to watch on his first start as I was worried about the drop to 5f. Despite the trip being against him (and the draw) he ran a fine race to finish 4th (Hamish McGonagall 2nd). I lumped on for his 2nd start (Haydock) and the air was blue in the BTP household after he was beaten a head, just failing to get up after losing his place at halfway - he shoulda, coulda won. The form of the race has worked out very well - 3rd, 5th, 6th and 8th all winning handicaps soon after. I thought he was worth a try at 7f for this next start (4lb higher) but I was disappointed with his run into 5th. He wasn't beaten by non-staying alone but I do feel he is a sprinter - perhaps the going was on the quick side too. Looks ideally boxed in three and if he gets the breaks then I can see him running a big race. Yard took this with a similar type in Tax Free in 2005 and although Cape Vale would do well to emaulate him, I wouldn't be surprised if he took this and went on to bigger things. I've had him in mind for this since I saw the decs and thought he'd be much shorter in the betting. CAPE VALE - EW

[JackJarvis]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Weds 09/07/08 3.10 Newmarket - HEAVEN SENT (1pt Win) Taking a chance on Stoutes' progressive mare here. She was unlucky not to win at Royal Ascot and Ryan Moore will know he went on far too soon that day. Cheveley Park have adopted a pacemaker in the field today and that will definetly be to the advantage of this horse who is proven over 2 furlongs further. The final uphill climb will really suit her and I can see her 'outstaying' her rivals today.