[Ended] £10 to something..., backing total goals

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Heh...so I noticed (your thread). But I am generally of very nervous disposition and worry too much. :D

[aliando]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals great work MT - will look at in more depth when brain a little less full!! whilst the point Mr A brings up about there being inevitable 0-0 cropping up is relevant, its not the end of the argument imo - similar to every other betting plan, you WILL hit a bad bet at some stage. What is then left to establish is a staking plan whereby you skim some of the profit as you go - the upside is when you hit that bad bet, you havent wasted your entire bank, you've got something stashed away as a 'real profit', whereas the bad side is that it will take you longer to hit your targets. how you do this is individual - I personally try and treble my bank and then skim a third, repeat until dead. Others will go hell for leather and try and make it without skimming any profit. Its simply about how much risk you are willing to take. There are a good few 0-0 threads around, so not sure why the discussion happened here but its a good discussion and one worth having! Good start mate and hope it continues!

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Aliando, I really like your banking plan, so I might ditch MT's in favor of this ;) Just means that I get to bank more often, and enough so as to generate some profit and some stake for future endeavors. Starting Bank = £10 1) Zenith v Spartak, Lay 0-0 @ 23 (3.304, 3-4); £10.43 2) Elfsberg v Gefle, Bank 1+ goals @ 1.06 (3.414, 0-1) ; £11.06 As for the Elfsberg game; well, I'll be lying if I say that I wasnt worried. 0-1 scoreline is not what I was expecting, but glad it came through. Oh, the numbers in the brackets are: (rating, final score). I am trying to generate ratings for the games and only bet on ones over 3. So both these games qualified today. Will try and generate these ratings for tomorrows games to find out the best one. These ratings will be useful for future reference. :hope

[Mr Accumulator]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Im a hell for leather guy Aliando , lol , thats my problem , and i think im mentaly scarred from previous battles against the 0-0 backers !!! It is deffo a cracking bet to do ,and it builds nicely , but the pressure grows in 2 ways ,firstly once you get past say 30 mins you start expecting the worst ,and the odds increasingly drift from the 1st minute .... Then once you get to a decent bank and your watching the game and its pish , 60 mins on the clock and 0-0s around 5/4 your very tempted to get out with a loss , then the inevitable goal goes in !! Ive spoke to many many people about this bet over the last 5 or 6 years , and all have had different systems ,ways to bet etc , including just laying 0-0 at ht at higher odds , or waiting 15 mins in to get better odds , or backing 0-0 then laying after 20 mins ,and on and on and on ,and every1s lost bundles . No 1 i know has made money laying 0-0s or backing 1+ . Id much rather go the laying 7+ route , but even that pops up . Basically its what your after in the long term with your money . You`ll get a buzz and you`ll win a good few bets along the way , but you`ll also go through lots of frustration and agonising ,and the losers are killers . But hey , the best of british to you . The funny thing is i KNOW i cant make money doing this bet , my last 1+ back was Stevenage away to some rubbish team on Setanta at the end of last season , it was about 1.03 , and yes you guessed it , it ended 0-0 !! BUT just reading this thread wants me to get in and have another go !!! I may well just do that !!# Watch this space :ok Mr A :beer:beer:beer:beer:beer:beer:beer:beer:beer:beer

[Mr Accumulator]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals ps When that goal goes in the feeling is the best in the world (bar cumming/poohing/sneezing) , and the later it goes in the better if your into pain then relief --------------- WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHH 1-0

[Mr Accumulator]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals 54 games played in the last 24 hours in the world , and 9 ended 0-0 !!!

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Well, glad I dodged them then Mr A ;) But I see and to a large extent agree with Mr A's points. Still, there is certain excitement in me to try something like this. So here we are :) And yea, I felt good when Gefle scored the only goal of the game! Wouldnt mind going out after 10-12 bets, just didnt want to lose on the 2nd :)

[ScottyXS]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals

Well, glad I dodged them then Mr A ;) But I see and to a large extent agree with Mr A's points. Still, there is certain excitement in me to try something like this. So here we are :) And yea, I felt good when Gefle scored the only goal of the game! Wouldnt mind going out after 10-12 bets, just didnt want to lose on the 2nd :)

Thats the worry mate. Me and Mr A were achieving huge sums of runs continuasly (sp?) to make profit at these low odds. As the stats say 0-0s happen more often than the poor odds suggest, and a run of 10-12 bets ofcourse will give you a profit if you bank just before you lose, but with these odds, youd need far more 10 correct to bank anything, and if you lose your fecked.

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals So looking at some games for later tonight and tomorrow, I have the shortlisted ratings as follows: (Only home team listed here) Vitoria (5.005) (@ 1.06) Internacional (4.549) (@ 1.05) Nautico (3.059) (@ 1.07) KR (4.082) (Later tomorrow) I have decided to go with Internacional, as the recent H2H between both teams has been good. KR bet can be placed tomorrow, I think match is late evening on Thursday. Starting Bank = £10 1) Zenith v Spartak, Lay 0-0 @ 23 (3.304, 3-4); £10.43 2) Elfsberg v Gefle, Back 1+ goals @ 1.06 (3.414, 0-1) ; £11.06 3) Internacional v Goias, Back 1+ goals @ 1.05 (4.549, ) :hope

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Yea, couldnt agree more Scotty. Just satisfied that if and when I lose, the £10 loss wont hurt that bad. And if by then I have banked enough, it would certainly ease the pain.

[madnesstiger]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Geez.. I've missed loads on here, and I've only been gone a few hours! Another site which may come in useful is: this little beauty! - it shows which leagues average most goals per game, and all sorts of other bits of useful statty-type things! *** Mr A.. added:

ps When that goal goes in the feeling is the best in the world (bar cumming/poohing/sneezing) , and the later it goes in the better if your into pain then relief --------------- WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHH 1-0

I, personally celebrate a winning bet with my celebration song...

:lol *** Oh, and Mr A...

Have another shot at it!

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals :D Nice links MT, I need to watch more Father Ted :D

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Starting Bank = £10 1) Zenith v Spartak, Lay 0-0 @ 23 (3.304, 3-4); £10.43 2) Elfsberg v Gefle, Back 1+ goals @ 1.06 (3.414, 0-1); £11.06 3) Internacional v Goias, Back 1+ goals @ 1.05 (4.549, 1-0); £11.55 The other two games ended 5-2 and 2-1, so it seems ratings are working fine. Surprised with this one being only 1-0, but glad it came in nevertheless.

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals No bet for today afternoon/eve as far as I can see. KR was an option, but betfair dont have extensive markets for that game, so cant bet. Only other option is TPV, but imo, they are strong contenders for unders, and so perhaps, not such a safe bet after-all.

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Just looking at tonight's games, a few of them stand out. Palmeiras (4.575) @ 1.03 Kansas (3.169) @ 1.07 LA (5.66) @ 1.05 I have decided to go for the LA game, mostly because their past few games have been very very high scoring (hence the high rating). Even otherwise, both teams have been leaking/scoring goals. Starting Bank = £10 1) Zenith v Spartak, Lay 0-0 @ 23 (3.304, 3-4); £10.43 2) Elfsberg v Gefle, Back 1+ goals @ 1.06 (3.414, 0-1); £11.06 3) Internacional v Goias, Back 1+ goals @ 1.05 (4.549, 1-0); £11.55 4) LA v Chivas, Back 1+ goals @ 1.05 (5.664, ) As the rating would suggest, I am quite confident of this one. I could actually bet on both Palmeiras and this game due to the time gap, but it would be too late into the night, and its too much at this point. Also, I have my graduation tomorrow, so I might not be able to bet on other games tomorrow and maybe even Saturday. Hopefully though, will be able to update this result tomorrow morning before leaving. :hope Lets hope for a good game, with leaky defenses :)

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Starting Bank = £10 1) Zenith v Spartak, Lay 0-0 @ 23 (3.304, 3-4); £10.43 2) Elfsberg v Gefle, Back 1+ goals @ 1.06 (3.414, 0-1); £11.06 3) Internacional v Goias, Back 1+ goals @ 1.05 (4.549, 1-0); £11.55 4) LA v Chivas, Back 1+ goals @ 1.05 (5.664, 1-1); £12.10 :ok

[ScottyXS]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals

Also, I have my graduation tomorrow, so I might not be able to bet on other games tomorrow and maybe even Saturday. Hopefully though, will be able to update this result tomorrow morning before leaving. :hope

Well done in graduating mate!! :clap:clap What were you studying??

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Cheers Scotty. Electronics and Communications Engineering. Finished my masters this year. Its been last 4 years, glad its coming to an end. Now to find a job :D

[ScottyXS]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals

Cheers Scotty. Electronics and Communications Engineering. Finished my masters this year. Its been last 4 years, glad its coming to an end. Now to find a job :D

I dont blame you!! I dropped comms as soon as I could. Absolutely stupidly difficult. Some of the most bamboozling maths ever constructed. Congrats mate, wont be difficult finding a job with a masters in that field :notworthy:notworthy Altho if this system keeps up, who needs work?? :loon

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Hehe...true true. But yea, since I am international student and all that, am having a bit of trouble finiding something so far. But yea, comms can be tricky, but its quite interesting too. I did a predictive algorithm based final year comms project. It was fun.

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Hey guys, Just managed to find some time to look at some games today. And lo an behold, it turns out that I forgot my excel spreadsheet (which I use to find these ratings) at home, and I dont have a copy either. Anyways, I tried to replicate the method, but I am worried that I might be missing something as none of the three games I looked at (Lyn, Malmo, Orebro) look like decent contender. I just hope their low ratings is a true representation, and I still remember the method to calculate the rating. I will look at tonights games later, and if things look good, shall go for a bet.

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals I will be puttin this on hold till Saturday, I apologise to anyone who was looking forward to this. Like I mentioned, I have forgotten my excel spreadsheet at home, and am somewhere else for a week. Silly me, and I cant even seem to remember the method properly. There is one important element in the ratings which seems to be missing, and even though predicting non 0-0 is fairly easy, I'd rather wait till I can assign them ratings, as it will help for future reference. So yea, till Saturday. Apologies ;(

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals I am now back to my beloved computer, and should be able to continue again. Got the ratings in for 1400 game, MyPa v Tampere. Decided to lay 0-0 @ 12 Starting Bank = £10 1) Zenith v Spartak, Lay 0-0 @ 23 (3.304, 3-4); £10.43 2) Elfsberg v Gefle, Back 1+ goals @ 1.06 (3.414, 0-1); £11.06 3) Internacional v Goias, Back 1+ goals @ 1.05 (4.549, 1-0); £11.55 4) LA v Chivas, Back 1+ goals @ 1.05 (5.664, 1-1); £12.10 5) MyPa v Tampere, Lay 0-0 @ 1.06 (4.422, ) Oh yea Scotty, I managed to get a job. Got a couple of options actually, which is great :D

[ScottyXS]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals

I am now back to my beloved computer, and should be able to continue again. Got the ratings in for 1400 game, MyPa v Tampere. Decided to lay 0-0 @ 12 Starting Bank = £10 1) Zenith v Spartak, Lay 0-0 @ 23 (3.304, 3-4); £10.43 2) Elfsberg v Gefle, Back 1+ goals @ 1.06 (3.414, 0-1); £11.06 3) Internacional v Goias, Back 1+ goals @ 1.05 (4.549, 1-0); £11.55 4) LA v Chivas, Back 1+ goals @ 1.05 (5.664, 1-1); £12.10 5) MyPa v Tampere, Lay 0-0 @ 1.06 (4.422, ) Oh yea Scotty, I managed to get a job. Got a couple of options actually, which is great :D

Nice one buddy :ok Hope its remotely relevant to what you done in uni ;):tongue2 Im thinkin myself for my last year to opt for a more specialised field (like what you done with comms), since the now Im doing elec and software, and thats a bit vast, thinkin about cuttin it down a bit to microcomputer systems engineering, more along the embedded processors line, but still unsure :\ Glad to hear about the job though, and youv already won the MyPa game (1-0 at HT :cheers) :clap

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Job isnt directly relevant (its as a software developer + consultant, and at some point project manager), but in terms of what I was expecting and wanted, its perfect. Not amazing money (22K I think) but thats fairly standard in this line of work. I tried really hard to find something in electronics and comms, but most companies in UK want you to have 'permission to work in UK indefinitely', which I dont, so not much came off it. But like I said, this is good too, and am happy that something is sorted before it was too late. And happy about MyPa, need to look at later games now :) Good luck with your embedded processors stuff, its interesting, and even better if you enjoy doing it. :ok

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Could only find a few games with enough records over the past few weeks to put up some stats. Two options for tonight. Goteborg and Athlone. Goteborg: 3.124 Athelon: 3.955 Betfair dont have the required market in Athelon game, so I have staked on Goteborg for 1+ goals. Shall update the stake and exact bet when the MyPa game is finished.

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Starting Bank = £10 1) Zenith v Spartak, Lay 0-0 @ 23 (3.304, 3-4); £10.43 2) Elfsberg v Gefle, Back 1+ goals @ 1.06 (3.414, 0-1); £11.06 3) Internacional v Goias, Back 1+ goals @ 1.05 (4.549, 1-0); £11.55 4) LA v Chivas, Back 1+ goals @ 1.05 (5.664, 1-1); £12.10 5) MyPa v Tampere, Lay 0-0 @ 12 (4.422, 1-0); £13.14 6) Goteborg v Gelfe, Back 1+ goals @ 1.08 (3.127, ) Not the score I was expecting in MyPa game, but I will take a goal before HT. Now onto Goteborg game, where I got relatively juicy odds of 1.08.

[madnesstiger]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Was going to join you with the Goteborg match, but decided not to bother in the end. GL to yourself anyhow... cannot see this one resulting in a stalemate.

[princecapri]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Cheers MT. I dont think this will be a very high scoring game, perhaps 1-0 or 2-0. But yea, hopefully not a stalemate.

[DJ]

Re: £10 to something..., backing total goals Well done on another win!!