Newmarket 9/7

[jtw1]

Falmouth Stakes ------------------ Only been run as a Group 1 for the past 4 seasons so i won't be selecting anything from a trends point of view. DARJINA looks a worthy favorite but was delayed 12-14 hours coming across from France and , more importantly , there is doubts about it running to it's best on Softish ground and with plenty rain forecast for the area tomorrow i would wait and see what ground conditions are like before having a bet. The same can be said for FINSCEAL BEO [ probably back to it's optimum trip after running 5 of her last 6 races over 9-11f .Her one and only run over the mile was when a gallant 1l 3rd to HARADASUN in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot . She has won on G/S over 7f but twice her connections have stated that after rainfall she was not at her best. The NZ raider SEACHANGE'S trainer had also stated he would prefer the ground on the firm side [ although wins on Sft are in her C.V] and whether the 8f is this one's best distance [ 3 wins ]is debateable with 11 of it's 14 wins being over 6/7f . HEAVEN SENT has only won at Grp 3 level and at 5yo it's a difficult ask for it to win at the top grade now. INFALLIBLE has done nothing wrong in defeat to LUSH LASHES in the Grp1 Coronation Stakes [2nd] and the Guineas [ 4th to NATAGORA and as this will be only it's 5th run there is every reason to expect more improvement but being by PIVOTAL i doubt whether the rain will help her. The potential fly in the ointment could well be the 3yo German raider BRISEDA. she won the German 1000 first time out this season , ok the fact that LOVE OF DUBAI was only just under 5l away in 3rd doesn't look like Grp 1 winning form, but as i say that was FTO and more importantly she is the only horse around 10/1 or under with winning/placed form on SOFT going . That last win showed that she had improved after turning tables with LOVE ACADEMY who had beat it 3l in a Grp 3 last season but was 6l behind in the German 1000. Since being upgraded 4 seaons ago there have been two 3yo winners [ the last 2 ] and it was SOVIET SONG who took it as a 4 then 5yo before them. The selection is made with regards to the forecaster's getting it right and the rain coming and getting into the ground . IF that doesn't happen and DARJINA runs then it should take this , but if their correct and the going is changed to G/S or Soft then an EW on BRISEAD will do me.

[Trotter]

Re: Newmarket 9/7 I haven't come up with a selection yet, but a couple of things I notice from looking at the Falmouth field........... Firstly the 'Cheveley Park' lot have got 3 runners........Heaven Sent, Infallible and Hip..........the latter appears to be a 80s rated handicap type who's obviously there as a pacemaker. I'm guessing that the idea is to get to the front and slow it down as there is a stamina doubt about both the other two in a true run mile. If that tactic is successful, I'd fancy Infallible to beat the others in a sprint finish Second.........couldn't help but note that Clive Brittain had the 50/1 winner a couple of years ago with a 3YO that had followed the same path as Love Of Dubai........Italy, Germany, Coronation Stakes, then here........could lightning strike twice ?............:loon