AFL Rd. 15

[TazaD]

Once again the sceptics and mind freaks come out on top over us number crunchers ay... :lol Well, the least you can do is to help make some sense out of this week for me...I was way off on a couple...actually think the books have set some pretty smart lines this week. I was hoping for Carlton +15 or so...surprised to see just about evens! But, some interesting numbers here, not least of which Carlton is second only to Geelong for I50's in the last 4 games!! :eek (av. 58) They've topped 55 in 5 of last 6 actually...and they had 54-53 last meeting in rd. 2 v. the Saints. The problem being that Carlton seem to be the one side St. Kilda can ever score against. They've won the last 10 meetings...9 as favs, but 1.66, 1.70 and 1.75 in there...and they've av'd 140 ppg in those 9 games!! (inc. 125 in rd. 2)... ...but how do you compare that to their current scoring ability (sans Gehrig I guess...)? They've had 25+ shots just once in their last 9...av'd 89 ppg in those 9, and just 81.8 if we take out the Melbourne game. You could give them the benefit of playing some tough games...but 10.5 v. Freo in the dome and not getting the ball over half way in the last 10 minutes was a debarkle! (Although, no Dal Santo, no Hayes...) Just can't come to grips with this one...Realsitically, I guess the odds are fairly right... lol...actually, you can scratch all of that! I thought it was at the Dome, but MCG it is...Carlton win this in a canter don't they?! :loon (tbc!)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Adelaide have to be a show, right? (Waits patiently for mind-set lesson ;) ) Crap away form, but 2 good wins at MCG (+11 and +14 I50's)...Are Collingwood much better than Carlton or Richmond?...teams that have beaten them 3 of 4 times since Rd. 19 last season... Last 4 stats very even really, Crows forward line letting them down, but have topped 111 both games at MCG. Still don't think the 'Pies are going all that well...always beat Sydney, everyone gets close to Dogs in the Dome...Crows have played 2 of the top 3 and a trip to Brisbane. Certainly equally as tough. Crows have won 5 of last 6 meetings...3/3 in Melbourne (all Dome) Has to be some value in the 3.25...+15.5 or so... I can only assume Essendon are drifting due to Fletcher being out...Brisbane are just 2/6 away from home, and give up a shot every 1.85 entries...which falls to 1.77 if we take out the West Coast game, who just can't score. Essendon starting to look a force again with Lloyd and Lucas getting back to some form, Hille/Laycock working well...sure their last 3 wins have been against some poor opposition, but Brisbane's last 2 wins have been at home v. Freo and Crows, belted by Dogs and lost to Melbourne! Will wait for selected teams (any chance of a Mal Michael recall?!!), but unless there looks to be a total mismatch for Brisbane up forward, I'm struggling to see the Bombers any worse than evens! I suspect Port should be favs...lost last 3 at home by combined 25 points. (In fact, just 1/7 at home this season, but combined losses = 60 points!) Kangaroos road form has been atrocious, 1/5 with a 'home' win on the Gold Coast v. Eagles...av'd 79 ppg and haven't had any more than 24 shots. Kangas just 44 I50's per game in last 4, better only than Melbourne... Tough to commit tho. Really interested in the Swannies @ 3.25ish. Hawthorn have been ordinary in their last...well, 7 really, despite a couple of big wins. They've won the last 6 meetings, 3 @ MCG, and last one as dogs and without Hall. (At SCG tho...'dogs?! :eek ) The main concern is their road form tho. Just bad. Av. just 41.8 I50's per!...having said that, they've only lost to St. K in round 1 by 2 points and an unlucky 42 loss @ Geelong (Again, without Hall) The positive is that in last season's win @ the MCG, they had just 34 I50's!! (to 48) and still won...in a game where Kennelly went off injured early, and Hall had just 2 marks and kicked a point! No reason for me to think that it won't be close...the points could come in vary handy I suspect. Dogs win (no Davey now either), Cats win...Richmond likely win, but as favs without Richo?! :unsure

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Yes well :$, don't mention the war but my theory last week revolved around Geelong not bringing the A+ game three rounds in a row :$. Crows had probably been over achievers (not a fair term really) off a good early draw but TBH had been looking shaky. They played a very down strength Hawthorn, so of coarse Geelong with strongest side for season were likely to cover the 22.5 @ evens :wall :spank. I think Coll will fix them up and would consider -18 if not too wet. Having said all that, if they want to throw up +60 Freo I could be interested. Kangaroos are only one I'm liking so far, despite obvious away form. Laidley did threaten to wield the axe and Williams might play some youth also, so shall be watching for all this. Be interesting to see how many WBD. Feel they could be keen to make a statement. Who matches up on Cam Bruce does worry me though. I imagine you'll be on the plane/boat/drive across TazaD? Maybe a good chance to catch up with Sir Knowsalot Sat night for a score check on the Ess/Bris game.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Well thought out mate, but unfortunatey not. Will be the first year not seeing a Melbourne/Doggies game in 5-6...(well, I only saw 2.5 quarters last year :@ :$ ) The year has been just too uncertain in regards to work/location/travelling etc...I was hoping to be moving over to the big smoke about now, but it's just been confirmed that it won't happen until Nov/Dec...if, in fact, at all. The funny part about it all tho, is that the boss (of the house!:D) has 4 rostered days off starting Saturday...and has decied to ditch me and go fishing with her dad! :gimme I think there's a reasonable chance that Melbourne keep it within 5 goals...although Davey out hurts their chances of course.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Taken some Essendon 2.40+ and Sydney +16.5 Very tempted by a Port +4.5 available...

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 It's a tricky round ahead with the unknown factor being how teams respond after their week off. The round starts tonight with Carlton trying to overcome their hoodoo over the Saints. I'm still scratching my head why they have night games at the MCG in the depths of winter. Cold ,wet and windy conditions are expected and this wont suit the Saints who are so accustomed to indoor football. Neither team are setting the world on fire, both struggling to overcome teams at their own standard. The midfield battle determines this one and I think the Saints look to have better depth through there with Hayes back and should provide enough chances to their forwards. Interesting to note that in 8 of their last 9 games at the MCG, Carlton have either won or lost by a margin in the 30's. The Crows head to Melbourne to face the Magpies on the back off a poor away record this season. They wont be the last team to be blown apart by Geelong, but their inflexible nature never gave them a chance to get back into that match. The Pies got the job done in Sydney last week, but dont seem to be able maintain good form for long periods. Both forward lines have question marks on them and defence should rule the day. I'm tipping the Magpies to win by a kick or two. Fremantle face the torture test when they face the Cats at home. They're putting a reasonable team on the park, but I can't see how they restrict the output of Geelong's midfield. It'll be interesting to see how many Dockers players don the long sleeves tomorrow. The Cats are in top form and will win easily. I think we've now established that Brisbane leave 25% of their playing abilities at home when they travel south. But will playing at 75% be enough to overcome the Bombers? One thing in their favour is that they'll be playing indoors and their skills shouldn't be affected adversely. The Bombers have been in a purple patch and have been knocking over teams they should beat. They must get a significant contribution from Lloyd, Lucas and McPhee to get close. The Lions have more to play for and should get home in a shootout. North are falling of the pace, and this game against Port is a must win. Laidley has done them no favours at the selection table putting out a team similar to the one thrashed by the Dockers a month ago. Port are playing youngsters as they are out of the finals race, but they've been standing up and Port haven't fallen away as many would have thought. They have enough good players playing decent footy to get them home against the overrated Kangaroos. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Collingwood, Geelong 3 - Brisbane 4 - Adelaide 5 - Carlton, Fremantle 6 - Essendon, Port Adelaide 7 - St Kilda 8 - North Melbourne How many of the top 10 are playing. 10- Carlton, St Kilda, Geelong 9 - Collingwood, Fremantle, Essendon, Brisbane 8 - Adelaide, North Melbourne 6 - Port Adelaide Predictor. Carlton 81 v St Kilda 85 Collingwood 96 v Adelaide 80 Geelong 104 v Fremantle 66 Essendon 105 v Brisbane 120 Port Adelaide 78 v North Melbourne 73 Best Bets. Adelaide LINE (+17.5) Brisbane MARGIN (1-39) I'll be back with the Sunday games later.

[pete]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 :clapGreat write up again "Burntua Crisp" look forward to Sunday's previews.:clap

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Got the world disagreeing by the looks (and I know where the big money's come from for this) but whether Collingwood -18.5 @ 2.20:loon TAB or -13.5:loon @ 1.93 Pinnacle it's BEST BET for the season IMO.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 I've decided against taking a side today... ...but will be waiting eagerly for a total I suspect I'll be able to jump on. :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Or not! :eek Thought I'd get over 180.5 for sure...seeing high 180's tho now... What's with BetFair's new total 'system'? Crows/Coll is what, 246.5?!! :unsure

[-Loki-]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Betfair is wacked with these totals:eek

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Adelaide have excuses already!! Bus broke down on the way to the ground...it's over...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Black v Power Most Disposals - POWER, Luke 1.93 @ Lasseters, Eskander. Is on fire of late - 32, 40 & 33 for last three. Black is struggling with an injury - 23, 19, 29 last three. Maybe gets more attention this time but is really worth the try IMO. Cassisi v Wells Most Disposals - WELLS, Daniel (KANG) 2.00 @ Lasseters Also have a little on this one. Wells has found some consistant form and is averaging more than Cassisi of late who tends to get same whether in winning of losing team.

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 It's time to assess the damage so far before looking ahead. The Saints did it comfortably over Carlton although it was looking dodgy half way through the last quarter. Their goalscoring power won it for them with Riewoldt dominating Waite. Another loss in the 30's for the Blues at the MCG and they aren't a September team yet. Collingwood eventually ground the Crows into the turf after staring slowly. Losing Porplyzia and Burton did Adelaide no favours and now they will have to work hard to make the 8. The Pies continue their push for top 4 and will be hoping the Hawks look after them tomorrow. The Cats followed the script by belting the Dockers, but might lose Ling and Ablett for the match of the year next week. It looks like Solomon can take his holidays early after elbowing Ling. An 8-10 week suspension should suffice. The Lions are just making up the numbers come September. Their midfield has dropped away and their defence lack accountability. A home Elimination final is the best they can expect, but probably don't deserve. I can't see myself betting on them again when they play in Melbourne. The Bombers have their confidence back and have a nice run home and might win 11 games. Port in experimental mode were still able to match it with the Kangaroos who are just travelling. A lucky win for North, but it keeps their finals hopes alive. The heavyweight clash at the MCG tomorrow should give us a gauge at where both are at. The Swans haven't come up with the goods against the best teams this season, but face a team here that they have the wood on. This is probably their most important game of the year and they must hold Collingwood at bay for a top 4 finish. The Hawks are clearly the 3rd best team, and have done so continually weakened in the midfield. Doubts on Bateman and Crawford might hamper them again, but they must have faith in their game style and run the Swans off their feet. They can't afford to be bullied by the Swans and must use their strengths up forward to put a winning score on the board. The Hawks incentive to virtually lock up a top 3 spot should get them home in a close one. The Dogs have a few missing, but whatever way you look at this game, it screams blowout. The Dogs have all areas covered and should kick another big score. With Davey and McLean out, scoring power is diminished, quality delivery is down and the Demons staring another 10 goal drubbing in the face. I have nothing useful to offer on the West Coast-Richmond game, because with the amount decent talent on the sidelines, it's to difficult to come up with anything meaningful. I'll tip the Eagles with their home ground advantage. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Hawthorn 3 - Sydney 4 - W.Bulldogs 5 - Richmond 6 - Melbourne, West Coast Number of top 10 players named. 9 - Hawthorn, Sydney, West Coast 8 - W.Bulldogs 7 - Richmond 6 - Melbourne Predictor. Hawthorn 81 v Sydney 85 W.Bulldogs 137 v Melbourne 73 West Coast 90 v Richmond 99 Best Bets. Hawthorn MARGIN (1-24)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Guess before the Crows' bus broke down it ran over a black cat, a Chinaman and a book of bad luck cliches... Would be interesting to know how much the loss of Porplyzia affected their set-up, 'cause after HT they were flat, slow, defensive...game was over 2 minutes in... ...obviously it was really over when Burton went down. Yeah, Brisbane now 2/7 away from home...one of those wins @ Port...Superb odds for the Dons last night. (Was my bet of the year too! :lol ;) ) Ash...please don't tell me you rate Wells now too!! :unsure Very tempted by the Tiges today, now they are out to 2.10+. Sure, Richo out hurts, Polak has been a bit of a non-factor and who the hell is Will Thursfield?! :eek Richmond have beaten everyone below them on the ladder reasonably convincingly, and WC are just about as bad as things get. Won @ Port and Freo... Hoping for a total @ the 'G...

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 ...and getting it this time. Hawks/Swanettes under 182.5 Sydney play a very defensive game-style away from home, av'ing just 41.8 I50's per game! Up against the stingy mid-field of the Hawks who give up just 42 on the season, so they will have limitted scoring opertunities. The flip side is Sydney's defense. Because they play so many players behind the ball, they allow a score only 2.14 entries, which is the best in the AFL by a fair way. The last 2 meetings at the MCG have been 141 and 173.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Well put it this way, because people have a habit of making their own interpretations of what people say without allowing for the true sense it's meant. As you may know I give all the players a rating 1-10. Guys like Ablett, Scarlett, Franklin, Black, Pavlich (not he's fault the clubs whacked) are the one's around 9-10 while the 40-game servicable type gets just a five. Cam Bruce sits as a seven (which isn't a ten). Wells sits at a seven also despite you'd expect better from a No.2 pick. Don't know about you guys but I don't exactly have Cassisi a ten. If you watch the games like I do then you may have noticed Wells has uncharacteristically played with much more fire and consistancy the last three than usual which could have led you to backing him for a bundle at 2.00 like I did, particuarly while Cassisi was likely to have his hands full with Harvey. As wasteful as Wells was with it he's still getting it which is all the bookies payed out on in this case considering it was 26-22. Black-Power ended 20-20 after Power led 18-12 at one point :wall. Oh BTW, I felt Adelaide would have covered the spread had they not lost those two players but there's nothing unusual about any of my bets not landing considering I have less than a 50% strike rate anyway although my 10-point plays at SP would stand at about 80% (which isn't 100%). Yeah Tigers a good smokey, particuarly if they can sack Wallace in time.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Bateman out for Tuck. Malceski out for Nick Smith (was poor earlier)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Hey, no-one was mocking the bet!! It was a good one, and proved to be so. :clap Wells to me is one of those terribly over-rated players who commentators (and special comment men...) gush about when he does something 'spectacular'...but fail to comment on the majority of times he does something stupid. Travis Johnstone...If I hear one more person say how he is "usually good with his disposal" I'll explode! He's got one of the worst kicking efficiencies in the AFL, yet the one or two really clever things he does a game seems to bluff everyone. :\ Sounds to me like you need a :beer :ok (Swans in a world of trouble here already.) Tigers 2.14...big.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 I'd just got out of bed, actually. Was up in middle of night after dog was licking my face. Does Kerr play?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Just watching that last 3.5 minutes thinking what if anyone on an under. Who'd need drugs when you could have a ride like that! The McVeigh shot ...

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 No word of him out. King out for Richmond. Missed 2.20 @ PP...not sure whether to take the 2.15...probably tells me I shuoldn't! Are WC any better than Port?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15

Just watching that last 3.5 minutes thinking what if anyone on an under. Who'd need drugs when you could have a ride like that! The McVeigh shot ...

Didn't watch it! Walked the dog...(Not very brave me! :$ ) Happy I didn't take the 180.5 @ Centrebet, which is sitting on S-P! :puke

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Knew your SP one got nutted. It was sitting on 179 with 3.5 mins to play. McVeigh shot was through dead centre, then the Lord obviously decided it takes a late swing and hits the post. Two seconds longer and Swans were into an open goal. Staying off Richmond for now - borderline bet and Edwards for King is just slightly enough to keep out for now. Will watch the Dogs/Dees replay on 501 because can't stand seven for the ads loading we get here on delay not to mention the obvious, so be back around 10:00pm - 3/4 cut probably.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 At this stage Richmond @ 1.15 would have been value...DAMMIT. :@ (Oh yeah, thanks Ash! Look forward to watching the replay of that one myself now! :lol )