Jump to content

Rating - 7.30 Leopardstown


Recommended Posts

Been at a loose end lately, so I've devised a ratings system for group races...........:nana It's fairly simple........I've studied group one races from the start of the season and tried to correlate finishing positions and 'lengths beaten' with the horses previous runs in group 2 and group 3 and listed races. I give the winner of a group one a rating of 120 Based on this my conclusion is that a group 2 win is worth about 116, a group 3 win about 113 and a listed win about 110........so you'd expect a group one horse to beat a group 2 horse by 4 lengths, a group 3 horse by 7 lengths and a listed class horse by 10 lengths. I also look at 'previous runs' and 'next time out' runs for horses running in group one races to get a feel for if it was a 'good' group one or a 'poor' group one and adjust the ratings accordingly ( in other words it's basically collateral form with a 'class rating' system built in ) Using these ratings for previous runs I can look at todays conditions of trip, going, recent form etc to produce a rating of what I 'expect' the horse to run to today.......... So.......first public trial !!..............:loon Here's my ratings for tonights group 3 race at Leopardstown........with latest odds in brackets 114 Royal Confidence (5/2) 113 Aleagueoftheirown (9/1) 112 Forthefirstime (8/1) 112 Age Of Chivalry (4/1) 110 Cheyenne Star (5/1) 106 Queen Jock (33/1) 105 My Girl Sophie (10/1) 102 Dimenticata (10/1) 101 Mystical Lady (20/1) - Subtle Shimmer (33/1) - Joshua´s Princess (25/1) - Emily Blake (16/1) The bottom 3 are 'unrateable' on my system A group 3 winner should be able to score 113 - so the first 4 in the list would be around that mark. Obviously I'd expect the winner and placed horses to be in that group Ooooo.............can't wait to see how the race works out !!..........:eek

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This thread has more posts. To see them, you'll need to sign up or sign in.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...