Steve's Lays

[Evenstephen]

Hello there from a new member. :ok I am Steve from Lincolnshire who is a huge sports fan (mostly Football, Cricket & Horse Racing but like other sports too). Over the years I have been trying to make money from horse racing and usually losing. :unsure Anyway I have created a lay system which concentrates on mostly fancied horses which since I first started on April 12th has averaged somewhere between 85% to 90% but the proof of the pudding is in the eating so here I am. I actually trade these selections myself so it will be interesting to see how well it does in the public domain. :) I usually trade about a minute before the off so the prices quoted will be what I got on Betfair. First selections to come shortly.......:D

[ScottyXS]

Re: Steve's Lays :welcome Stephen!! Best of luck with this. That is quite an immense strike rate.

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays

:welcome Stephen!! Best of luck with this. That is quite an immense strike rate.

Thanks Scotty :ok, all of the selections are forecast favourites so there shouldn't be a huge liability although Synonmy in the 4-30 at Kempton today was quoted at 4/1 in the Racing Post and was 13.0 on Betfair just before the race so it's up to the person if they want to take it on or not. The average SP of the winners is currently just over 3/1 so I hope it will remain profitable. ;) Tomorrow's Selections: Chepstow 3-10 Party In The Park Kelso 3-20 Native Coll Kelso 4-20 Ryminster Exeter 6-20 Bon Viveur/Haunted House (Whoever is the larger price at the start) Exeter 7-20 Jim Bobs Girl Good luck! :ok

[turnlux]

Re: Steve's Lays :welcome Stephen and good luck with this, be interested to see how this goes. Anyway good luck.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Steve's Lays Yeah, good luck Stephen, will be interesting to see how this turns out for you. :hope

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Chepstow 3-10 Party In The Park ( 3.20) - 4th 2/1f :ok Kelso 3-20 Native Coll (4.8) - 3rd 5/2f :ok Kelso 4-20 Ryminster (7.0) - 9th 5/1jf :ok Exeter 6-20 Bon Viveur (12.5) - PU 8/1 :ok Exeter 7-20 Jim Bobs Girl (4.2) - 6th 3/1f :ok A very good start although some people would have had to have been brave to have laid Bon Viveur at 12.5 but I'm more fearless than some. :rollin The number in brackets next to the horse is the price I laid the selection. Today's Selections: Beverley 4-15 President Elect Beverley 4-50 Piverina Fakenham 5-10 Pochard :hope

[DC]

Re: Steve's Lays :welcometo the PL and great start to this thread! Long may it continue :clap

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Yesterday's Results: Beverley 4-15 President Elect (3.10) - 7th 2/1f :ok Beverley 4-50 Piverina - 8th 9/2f :ok Fakenham 5-10 Pochard - 1st 9/2f :$ 3 Selections 2 Correct (66.7%) Overall: 8 Selections 7 Correct (87.5%) A strange thing happened yesterday after the 4-15 race as I wasn't able to lay any of the last 2 races as all the markets were suspended. I couldn't read of any problems from anyone else so wasn't sure what happened so made a overall profit of £1.90. Pochard was a very impressive winner in the last race and I would have made a loss on the day if trading as usual. Today's Selections: 6 meetings and not a single selection. :)

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays

:welcometo the PL and great start to this thread! Long may it continue :clap

Many thanks for the welcome Danny, I really hope this turns out to be successful. :)

[ScottyXS]

Re: Steve's Lays Yeah Betfairs markets went down, and didnt get back up until 5.50ish. Was a technical difficulty :ok

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays

Yeah Betfairs markets went down, and didnt get back up until 5.50ish. Was a technical difficulty :ok

Many thanks Scotty, it saved me some money in the long term. :ok

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Today's Selections: Lingfield 2-10 High n' Dry Nottingham 2-30 Taikoo Hamilton 6-05 Fathey/Going Time (Whichever is the bigger price) Hamilton 8-15 Varadouro :hope

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Lingfield 2-10 High n' Dry (12.0) - 3rd 8/1 :ok Nottingham 2-30 Taikoo (8.0) - 8th 6/1 :ok Hamilton 6-05 Fathey - 1st 15/2 :$ Hamilton 8-15 Varadouro - 11th 3/1f :ok 4 Selections 3 Correct (75.0%) Fathey was the bigger odds of the two joint favourites. On reflection I should have left this race alone because none of the horses had run before. Last night I was on my way to see my girlfriend in Peterborough and missed trading the last two races. Today's Selections: Haydock 1-25 Very Cool (8.8) Haydock 2-00 Leg Spinner Nottingham 2-55 Kashoof Hexham 3-05 Baby Sister/Devils Delight Hexham 4-10 Zaffie Parson Nottingham 4-40 Montiboli Lingfield 5-25 Glencal Warwick 5-55 Strabinios King Warwick 6-55 Dansilver Warwick 7-25 Goodbye Warwick 7-55 Spin Again Sorry selections a bit late due to the Racing Post website going down earlier.

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Haydock 1-25 Very Cool (8.8) - 2nd 11/2 :ok Haydock 2-00 Leg Spinner (9.6) - 19th 15/2 :ok Nottingham 2-55 Kashoof (6.0) - 8th 7/1 :ok Hexham 3-05 Devils Delight - 7th 11/2 :ok Hexham 4-10 Zaffie Parson - 4th 14/1 :ok Nottingham 4-40 Montiboli - 4th 8/1 :ok Lingfield 5-25 Glencal (4.5) - 5th 9/2jf :ok Warwick 5-55 Strabinios King - Non-Runner Warwick 6-55 Dansilver (4.9) - 6th 7/2f :ok Warwick 7-25 Goodbye (4.0) - 6th 9/4f :ok Warwick 7-55 Spin Again (3.2) - 6th 2/1f :ok Some of these this afternoon I traded early as me and my girlfriend spent some time out in Peterborough. Zaffie Parson was 21.0 just before the off and that was too high even for me. Montiboli didn't reach my pre-arranged price and I didn't trade in the Devils Delight race because it wasn't clear which of the two horses were going to be the outsider. Still an excellent day though. :nana Sunday's Selections: Worcester 3-20 Pebrock Uttoxeter 4-00 Shrewd Dude Worcester 4-20 Storm Of Applause :hope

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Worcester 3-20 Pebrock (10.0) - 5th 8/1 :ok Uttoxeter 4-00 Shrewd Dude - Non-Runner (Withdrawn) Worcester 4-20 Storm Of Applause (5.8) - 2nd 9/2 :ok So far 22 out of 24 selections successful (91.67%) with a profit of approximately 8 points. I'll be more careful about laying unraced horses in the future. :$ Today's Selections: Wolverhampton 4-10 Reclamation Windsor 6-25 Bikini Windsor 7-25 Sleepy Hollow Towcester 7-35 Thenameescapesme *Reclamation very well backed into half it's early odds which usually means less liability* :hope

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Wolverhampton 4-10 Reclamation (5.9) - 1st 4/1 :$ Windsor 6-25 Bikini (6.8) - 7th 9/2jf :ok Windsor 7-25 Sleepy Hollow (6.2) - 1st 9/2f :$ Towcester 7-35 Thenameescapesme (5.1) - 1st 4/1 :$ 4 Selections 1 Correct (25.0%) Not a great day result wise but it's inevitable now and again, Tony McCoy gave Thenameescapesme a fantastic ride winning on the line and Seb Sanders was excellent on Reclamation when he was overtaken into the straight and getting back to win. Today's Selection: Brighton 4-10 Bridgewater Boys :hope

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Bridgewater Boys must have been put off by the weight of money against him on Tuesday and decided not to run. :rollinThere was nothing at all yesterday so it's been very quiet up to now this week. Today's Selections: Salisbury 4-00 Outside Edge Perth 4-10 Ballynure Ludlow 7-40 Jug Of Punch, Legally Fast or Nayodobayo (Whoever is the bigger price) I won't be trading on tonight's race at Ludlow as I'll be at my dad's and he has slow dial-up. :hope

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Salisbury 4-00 Outside Edge (7.8) - 6th 13/2 :ok Perth 4-10 Ballynure (10.5) - 4th 15/2 :ok Ludlow 7-40 Jug Of Punch (12.5) - 7th 9/1 :ok Returned back to form again after the losses on Monday. :) Today's Selections: Newmarket 4-45 King Of Rhythm Hamilton 9-05 Raccoon, Rothesay Dancer :hope

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Newmarket 4-45 King Of Rhythm - 2nd 7/2 :ok Hamilton 9-05 Rothesay Dancer - 2nd 9/2 :ok Weekly total: 9 Selections 6 Correct (66.7%) 8.2 Points loss Today's Selections: Newmarket 2-25 Oceana Gold/Viva Vettori Bangor 3-25 Longueville Manor/Sninfia Newmarket 4-10 Resplendent Nova Newbury 4-30 Nice Wee Girl Bangor 4-35 Jardin De Vienne Newmarket 5-20 Ingleby Princess :hope

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays It would have been another perfect day had Sninfia not won yesterday. :eyes Newmarket 2-25 Viva Vettori - 6th 9/4 :ok Bangor 3-25 Sninfia - 1st 10/1 :$ Newmarket 4-10 Resplendent Nova (10.5) - 5th 9/1 :ok Newbury 4-30 Nice Wee Girl (7.73) - 5th 15/2jf :ok Bangor 4-35 Jardin De Vienne (8.0) - 8th 7/1 :ok Newmarket 5-20 Ingleby Princess - 6th 3/1f :ok I didn't lay the first two races because me and my partner went to Newmarket to pick up some garden furniture from a purchase on Ebay but the people had gone out and forgotten about it. :eyes We arrived back in peterborough too late to trade on the 5-20 race. I'll avoid any races with joint favourites in the future. :$ Ripon 3-10 Jewelled Dagger Ripon 4-10 Bajan Pride Fakenham 4-50 Shrewd Dude Market Rasen 5-00 Puerto Azul

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Ripon 3-10 Jewelled Dagger - 2nd 11/4 :ok Ripon 4-10 Bajan Pride - 9th 7/1 :ok Fakenham 4-50 Shrewd Dude - Pulled-Up 6/1 :ok Market Rasen 5-00 Puerto Azul - 3rd 11/4f :ok Today's Selections: just the two tonight....... Windsor 8-40 Regal Step Wolverhampton 8-50 Strabinios King

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Windsor 8-40 Regal Step (5.0) - 11th 7/2 :ok Wolverhampton 8-50 Strabinios King (5.3) - 12th 7/2f :ok Today's Selections: Musselburgh 4-10 Zennerman Musselburgh 4-40 Annibale Caro Leicester 6-50 High Standing Towcester 7-10 Coach Lane Leicester 8-50 Ovthenight :hope

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays I could have not asked for a worse day...:@ Musselburgh 4-10 Zennerman - 5th 3/1f :ok Musselburgh 4-40 Annibale Caro - 1st 5/2f :$ Leicester 6-50 High Standing - 1st 2/1f :$ Towcester 7-10 Coach Lane - 1st 7/1 :$ Leicester 8-50 Ovthenight - 1st 5/1 :$ I looked at the results again and tried to find out what had gone wrong, the system overall has been very good but you get days like this where you make a loss and it puts you back to square one. I'll have a break for a few days and do more researching before adding more selections.

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays I've spent almost two sleepless nights and endless research trying to find out a way to make my lays profitable in the long term. Actually I slept like a log but it sounds more dramatic. :lol I had some good winning runs but when horses win at 7/1, 8/1 and 10/1 it can soon wipe out your profits. I use two lay systems including this one and it might be best to just concentrate on those selections that start the race as favourite because all of my stats were based on the jollys anyway. The success rate is bound to be less than 80% but if it means profit in the long tern then that has to be good. :) No selections to start off higher than 9/2 (6.0 on Betfair) but they must start favourite or joint-favourite. I'll only be trading a minute or so before the start. Goodwood 5-10 Councellor Salisbury 6-10 Vanadium Clonmel 6-30 Grand Corniche Salisbury 7-10 Comptons Eleven Salisbury 7-40 Iron Cross Salisbury 8-10 Orange Pip No chance of me trading now as I won't be at work and my dad hasn't got his broadband set up yet so I'll be watching the results tonight.

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Goodwood 5-10 Councellor - 1st 9/2 - No Bet because not favourite Salisbury 6-10 Vanadium - 8th 5/2f :ok Clonmel 6-30 Grand Corniche - 6th 5/2f :ok Salisbury 7-10 Comptons Eleven - 9th 9/2jf :ok Salisbury 7-40 Iron Cross - 13th 9/1 - No Bet Salisbury 8-10 Orange Pip - 2nd 2/1jf :ok Not a bad start, Councellor was 2nd favourite in the Goodwood race. Today's Selections: Brighton 3-05 Cosmic Destiny Newcastle 3-20 Smoothly Does It Newcastle 3-55 Decipher Newcastle 4-30 Sylvia's Grove Newmarket 4-40 Punjabi Newcastle 5-05 Rossini's Dancer Newmarket 5-15 Aggravation Brighton 5-25 Metropolitan Cief Wexford 5-45 Salute Him Newmarket 5-50 Sintenis Mac Pontefract 6-30 Society Music Wexford 6-45 Indianaca Stratford 7-40 Surface To Air Stratford 8-40 Evelith Echo Pontefract 9-00 Palace Moon I'll be trading until the 5-25 at Brighton then I have to catch a train to Peterborough so won't be trading tonight. One more rule to add is that there has to be a minimum of 9 runners in the race apart from the 3-05 at Brighton. :) :hope

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Brighton 3-05 Cosmic Destiny - 3rd 9/2 Newcastle 3-20 Smoothly Does It - 3rd 6/1 Newcastle 3-55 Decipher - 1st 8/1 Newcastle 4-30 Sylvia's Grove - 5th 9/2 Newmarket 4-40 Punjabi - 1st 2/1 Newcastle 5-05 Rossini's Dancer - 10th 2/1f :ok Newmarket 5-15 Aggravation - 9th 7/2f :ok Brighton 5-25 Metropolitan Chief - 7th 9/1 Wexford 5-45 Salute Him - 1st 5/4f :$ Newmarket 5-50 Sintenis Mac - 4th 9/4f :ok Pontefract 6-30 Society Music - 4th 7/1 Wexford 6-45 Indianaca - 8th 7/1 Stratford 7-40 Surface To Air - 1st 15/2 Stratford 8-40 Evelith Echo - 8th 13/2 Pontefract 9-00 Palace Moon - Withdrawn at start - didn't run 4 Selections 3 Correct Lays (75%) I didn't trade the race at Wexford but will guess the Betfair odds near the start of the race were something near 2.36. So about 1.64 Points profit on the day. Tomorrow's Selections: Haydock 2-05 Northern Fling Curragh 2-10 Ragged Staff Haydock 4-10 Fervent Prince Catterick 4-20 Leonid Glow Newmarket 4-35 Masaalek Catterick 4-55 Violent Velocity Newmarket 5-10 Resurge Curragh 5-20 King Of Westphalia Newmarket 5-45 Irish Quest Stratford 6-15 Avant Gardiste Cartmel 7-00 Stravaigin Cartmel 7-35 Hall of Flame There should be no limits to the number of runners as long as there isn't too many non-runners in these races. I am doing these selections tonight because my missus is going to have her hair done and her legs waxed tomorrow morning, I do hope it doesn't end the other way round. :lol :hope

[DC]

Re: Steve's Lays Hey mate, it might be best to put up some daily or even weekly profit and loss figures so we can see how things are working for you? Best of luck for the thread, Danny :ok

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Thanks for the encouragement Danny :ok Originally 49 Selections produced 39 correct (79.6%) and it was showing a loss of about 12 points on SP but with some of the Betfair prices being bigger then the losses would have been much more than that. :cry My stats were based on losing favourites and a lot of these selections were originally forecast favourites in the Racing Post, as you will have noticed though the SPs not too many of them weren't returned as jollies. The selections I choose now only apply if they are favourite as near to the start of the race as possible and at a maximum price of 9/2 at SP (up to 6.0 on Betfair). Today's Results: Haydock 2-05 Northern Fling - 4th 7/1 - No Bet Curragh 2-10 Ragged Staff - 2nd 4/1f :ok Haydock 4-10 Fervent Prince - 1st 11/2 - No Bet Catterick 4-20 Leonid Glow - 2nd 5/2jf :ok Newmarket 4-35 Masaalek - 2nd 7/2jf :ok Catterick 4-55 Violent Velocity - 2nd 11/4jf :ok Newmarket 5-10 Resurge - 1st 5/2 - No Bet Curragh 5-20 King Of Westphalia - 5th 2/1f :ok Newmarket 5-45 Irish Quest - 6th 2/1f :ok Stratford 6-15 Avant Gardiste - 3rd 5/2f :ok Cartmel 7-00 Stravaigin - 3rd 7/2jf :ok Cartmel 7-35 Hall of Flame - Pulled Up 7/2f :ok Kal Barg was the 11/4 favourite in the 4-10 at Haydock and Timetable was the 9/4 favourite in the 5-10 at Newmarket which did me a big favour. :lol Today's stats: 9 Selections 9 Correct (100.0%) 9 Points profit Overall: 13 Selections 12 Correct (92.3%) approx 10.64 Points profit. This is a far from perfect system but I'm hoping it will make some profit in the long run with slightly less risk. ;)

[Evenstephen]

Re: Steve's Lays Today's Possible Selections: Curragh 2-00 Cihangir Uttoxeter 2-10 Winsley Hill Newmarket 2-20 Friends Hope Uttoxeter 2-45 Cleymor House Newmarket 4-05 Cape Curragh 4-10 Charminamix Curragh 5-10 Kalidaha Newmarket 5-15 Nice Wee Girl Uttoxeter 5-35 Diablo Newmarket 5-50 Metal Madness :hope

[klaymore79]

Re: Steve's Lays Doing well mate, just one thing:

The selections I choose now only apply if they are favourite as near to the start of the race as possible and at a maximum price of 9/2 at SP (up to 6.0 on Betfair). Today's Results: Newmarket 5-10 Resurge - 1st 5/2 - No Bet

Typo? Or some other reason it wasn't a bet?