Southwell - Tuesday 29/04/08

[billy the punter]

Southwell 4.00 I always pay attention when John Gosden sends runners to Southwell. He has only sent 10 here over the past five seasons. Much less than the other A/W tracks (148 Lingfield, 61 Kempton, 57 Wolverhampton - already 2 Great Leighs). From those ten runners however he has had 4 winners (100% 1/1 with 4yo+'s). Owner/trainer wouldn't have many horses that have won yet are still rated 66 so thought this deserved a closer look. He was 4th on his debut at Newmarket on good/soft and the race has worked out well. The front two are now rated high 80s and the 3rd is a mid-70s horse. He finished 2nd on his 2nd start on good/firm but looked a bit awkward, he was fitted with blinkers NTO when he again disappointed into 3rd (Kempton). Those runs were all over 7f and he was dropped to 6f for his final start and again wore blinkers. It was a poor race and he had no trouble taking it. Was on good ground. His best two runs were on G/S and good, and being by Inchinor he obviously wants an easy surface - maybe that is why he disappointed last year on his 2nd and 3rd start? Therefore he should love the fibresand. Blinkers are left off here, which is puzzling, but I suppose you have to trust his great trainer. He cost 400k as a yearling and I would expect there would've been plenty of buyers for him at the sales (has been withdrawn twice), so the fact that his high profile connections are keeping him is maybe a sign that there is more to come? He is unbeaten over this trip and it may be the making of him. Soto is knocking on the door and is 1/1 here. Varadouro is big chances on best form but ran poorly LTO. He could be worth another chance back over 6f. Matthew Davies is 2(btn hd)-1 on Music Box Express. I know this is a low class handicap, but think this is a race where I can sneak the winner. Cape Cobra 100% stake win 4.2 betfair

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Southwell - Tuesday 29/04/08 2-30 Southwell - Apres Ski - each way Nothing has a chance at the weights against the favourite, but Apres Ski rattled up a hat trick over a mile last year, twice on turf and once on the AW. Tried a 9 furlong run at Wolverhampton and made headway until 2 out then no further progress. Next two outings on turf had the word 'soft' in the going and he hated it, so they can be ignored. The two rags are only here to make up the numbers (he said bravely) so in the bookies it's an each way bet for the first two places. With the favourite (9 years old btw) very likely to get one place, the 2nd place is a 4 horse race, and hopefully that man Fenton can get Apres Ski there. He can start slowly, so that's not a major problem. The gambling Fahey stable have not backed their nag (yet), and trainer Bowring has stated that the best trip for Rambling Socks is 7 furlongs. As for Betfair punters :- Befair pay three places for this race but the price is poor at 2.82 at the moment (2.94 15 minutes ago) If he starts slowly that will soon drift, so it may be worth trying to lay him at 2.84 - 2.88 and back him after a furlong at over 2/1.