Tulenos Posted July 26, 2008 Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Sorry if it sounded like knocking rooster, it was not meant like this. Of course, keep up great work, rooster;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 26, 2008 Author Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Very sorry guys but I've been having terrible internet problems the last 16 hours or so. Here are today's and I know a couple of races have run and the selections were successful lays but ....... Any accusations of back-fitting are welcome :ok 26 July 2008 200 ASCOT 3/1*Doctor (LAY) 255 NEWMARKET 7/4*Roaring Forte (LAY) 420 ASCOT 8/11*Duke of Marmalade (LAY) 440 NEWMARKET 6/4*Always Bold (LAY) 450 YORK 15/8*Four Miracles (LAY) 620 LINGFIELD 7/4*Greenwich (LAY) 635 SALISBURY 7/4*Talk Of Saafend (LAY) 705 SALISBURY 4/6*Elnawin (LAY) 840 SALISBURY 3/1*Tableau Vivant (LAY) RR 420 ASCOT 8/11 Duke of Marmalade (LAY) 450 YORK 15/8 Four Miracles (LAY) 635 SALISBURY 7/4 Talk Of Saafend (LAY) 705 SALISBURY 4/6 Elnawin (LAY) RR 2 415 YORK 7/4 Captain Ellis 650 LINGFIELD 11/8 You´ve Been Mowed Ultra Filtered (LAY FAVS ONLY!!) 620 LINGFIELD 7/4*Greenwich (LAY) 635 SALISBURY 7/4*Talk Of Saafend (LAY) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 26, 2008 Author Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Tulenos No offense taken mate. We're all here to contribute and all (bar one silly post) comments I've received since joining have been constructive. It's this reason so many of us hang around for so long I think. No crap by and large. I appreciate your comments and will remove what I think are the 'offending' smileys :ok Not quite sure how to read your own post. Can you explain the figure to me please. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 26, 2008 Author Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Asificare Thanks for the support mate :ok Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santo Posted July 26, 2008 Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Annapolis I'm guessing was a mistake from the Best Bets thread. Mixed bag so far, hopefully some winners on the evening stuff :) Just to correlate the record keeping, I'm guessing the top list is the "All Selections" on the record keeping with a ~8% Yield? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 26, 2008 Author Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Rating Lays That's right Santo. Hasn't been a good afternoon and removing Annapolis didn't help :tongue2 This tends to go swings and roundabouts as we're dealing with such short fields. I'll update the stats on Sunday night. It has been a good week overall though and you have to view this long term and not day to day. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santo Posted July 26, 2008 Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Yup I agree. Long term they're very good value :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 26, 2008 Author Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Santo That's the way to look at it :ok Poor day today but not a total disaster and it's only one day of many. Bear in mind that this is a work in progress and I won't be drawing any 'firm' conclusions for at least another few hundred lays. I'm trying to build something which has legs and will go the distance so we can all benefit long term. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 26, 2008 Author Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Results for Saturday 26 July 2008 Poor day! 200 ASCOT 3/1*Doctor (LAY) L 15/8F 255 NEWMARKET 7/4*Roaring Forte (LAY) 2ND 2/1F 420 ASCOT 8/11*Duke of Marmalade (LAY) W 4/6F 440 NEWMARKET 6/4*Always Bold (LAY) W 1/1F 450 YORK 15/8*Four Miracles (LAY) W 9/4F 620 LINGFIELD 7/4*Greenwich (LAY) W 7/4F 635 SALISBURY 7/4*Talk Of Saafend (LAY) W 11/8F 705 SALISBURY 4/6*Elnawin (LAY) W 1/2F 840 SALISBURY 3/1*Tableau Vivant (LAY) 2ND 9/4F RR 420 ASCOT 8/11 Duke of Marmalade (LAY) W 4/6F :cry 450 YORK 15/8 Four Miracles (LAY) W 9/4F :cry 635 SALISBURY 7/4 Talk Of Saafend (LAY) W 11/8F :cry 705 SALISBURY 4/6 Elnawin (LAY) RR 2 415 YORK 7/4 Captain Ellis 2ND 1/2F :) 650 LINGFIELD 11/8 You´ve Been Mowed 3RD 8/11F :) Ultra Filtered (LAY FAVS ONLY!!) 620 LINGFIELD 7/4*Greenwich (LAY) W 7/4F :cry 635 SALISBURY 7/4*Talk Of Saafend (LAY) W 11/8F :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 26, 2008 Author Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Sunday 27 July 2008 140 ASCOT 13/8*Kaateb (LAY) 325 ASCOT 9/4*Bawaard (LAY) 340 CARLISLE 6/4*Let It Be (LAY) 350 PONTEFRACT 5/2*Calming Influence (LAY) 400 ASCOT 7/4*Basque Beauty (LAY) 435 ASCOT 3/1*Craigstown (LAY) RR 140 ASCOT 13/8*Kaateb (LAY) RR 2 No selections Ultra Filtered (LAY FAVS ONLY!!) No selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 27, 2008 Author Share Posted July 27, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Results for Sunday 27 July 2008 Small profit on the day overall. 140 ASCOT 13/8*Kaateb (LAY) 2ND 11/10F 325 ASCOT 9/4*Bawaard (LAY) 2ND 11/4 340 CARLISLE 6/4*Let It Be (LAY) W 11/10F 350 PONTEFRACT 5/2*Calming Influence (LAY) NR 400 ASCOT 7/4*Basque Beauty (LAY) W 6/5F 435 ASCOT 3/1*Craigstown (LAY) L 2/1F RR 140 ASCOT 13/8*Kaateb (LAY) 2ND 11/10F :) RR 2 No selections Ultra Filtered (LAY FAVS ONLY!!) No selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 27, 2008 Author Share Posted July 27, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Monday 28 July 2008 230 YARMOUTH 4/5*Leftontheshelf (LAY) 300 YARMOUTH 7/4*Silent Treatment (LAY) 330 YARMOUTH 2/5*Fazbee (LAY) 400 YARMOUTH 3/1*Fitzroy Crossing (LAY) 650 UTTOXETER 11/10*Willie Pep (LAY) 710 WINDSOR 2/1*Giverny (LAY) RR 230 YARMOUTH 4/5 Leftontheshelf (LAY) 330 YARMOUTH 2/5 Fazbee (LAY) RR 2 245 SOUTHWELL 8/11 Night Of Fortune Ultra Filtered (LAY FAVS ONLY!!) 300 YARMOUTH 7/4 Silent Treatment (LAY) 400 YARMOUTH 3/1*Fitzroy Crossing (LAY) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ljones60 Posted July 28, 2008 Share Posted July 28, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Rooster, I've noticed that you have Leftonthshelf as a RR LAY and also listed on your best of the day thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asificare Posted July 28, 2008 Share Posted July 28, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Rooster, I've noticed that you have Leftonthshelf as a RR LAY and also listed on your best of the day thread. yep he does that sometimes by mistake so i think his advise would be to leave it alone as a lay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 28, 2008 Author Share Posted July 28, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Sorry about that guys and yes Asificare is quite right. If a lay appears on the other thread don't lay it. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 28, 2008 Author Share Posted July 28, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Results for 28 July 2008 Good day! 230 YARMOUTH 4/5*Leftontheshelf (LAY) NO BET 300 YARMOUTH 7/4*Silent Treatment (LAY) 2ND 4/7F 330 YARMOUTH 2/5*Fazbee (LAY) W 1/3F 400 YARMOUTH 3/1*Fitzroy Crossing (LAY) L 5/1 650 UTTOXETER 11/10*Willie Pep (LAY) L 1/1F 710 WINDSOR 2/1*Giverny (LAY) L 9/2 RR 230 YARMOUTH 4/5 Leftontheshelf (LAY) NO BET 330 YARMOUTH 2/5 Fazbee (LAY) W 1/3F :cry RR 2 245 SOUTHWELL 8/11 Night Of Fortune 2ND 4/9F :) Ultra Filtered (LAY FAVS ONLY!!) 300 YARMOUTH 7/4 Silent Treatment (LAY) 2ND 4/7F :) 400 YARMOUTH 3/1*Fitzroy Crossing (LAY) L 5/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 28, 2008 Author Share Posted July 28, 2008 Re: Rating Lays 29 July 2008 235 BEVERLEY 5/2*Bainisteoir (LAY) 250 GOODWOOD 4/6*Conduit (LAY) 455 BEVERLEY 3/1*Hypnosis (LAY) 750 WORCESTER 5/4*Roby De Cimbre (LAY) 815 PERTH 11/8*Apollo Creed (LAY) 915 PERTH 5/2*Leamington Lad (LAY) RR 2250 GOODWOOD 4/6 Conduit (LAY) 750 WORCESTER 5/4 Roby De Cimbre (LAY) 815 PERTH 11/8 Apollo Creed (LAY) RR 2 710 PERTH 8/11 Rory Boy (BACK) Ultra Filtered (LAY FAVS ONLY!!) 3235 BEVERLEY 5/2 Bainisteoir (LAY) 455 BEVERLEY 3/1 Hypnosis (LAY) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted July 28, 2008 Share Posted July 28, 2008 Re: Rating Lays @ rooster - the figures in my post appeared by mistake as I didn't delete all of my notes. The purpose of the post was that I noticed, some time ago, that quite a few of the selections tend to drift a bit just before the off and that it might be worth backing them 5 mins before the off. Today, though, there were two clashing trends - in the races I was around for: 330 YARMOUTH 2/5 Fazbee (LAY) 5 min – 1.42, BFSP – 1.36 400 YARMOUTH 3/1*Fitzroy Crossing (LAY) 5 min – 5.8, BFSP – 7.02 Make of the above what you will - of course, it's not set in stone that 5 mins before the off is the best time to lay them. And - long may the thread and its success continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juan King Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Hi Tulenos Just a thought - keep an eye on liquidity on the selections - amount matched on Betfair is a good guide, although trading will inflate the figures. It takes a great deal more money to affect the odds on a Saturday race at York, than a weekday race at Yarmouth. IF the odds are drifting on low liquidity race, then it may be people following Rooster that are pushing the odds out - just a few hundred £s could well do that. If this is the case, then arbing the bet will probably reduce the %return Rooster is achieving. and, yes, long may this thread continue !! Juan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juan King Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Hi there Rooster !! A thought on your analysis: the return on your 'total' selections is lower than the three areas RR, RR2 and supafilter, which are usually included in the total. Have you looked at the performance of only those selections in the total EXCLUDING selections in the other categories. I suspect it is pretty low. Keep it going - I appreciate your efforts and hard work - here to help if I can !:D Juan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asificare Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 Re: Rating Lays another great day rooster thanks for bringing this to my attention a system high on my bog all due to you . now down to 3% of bank . soon hope to be 1% then 0.75% to reduce the loss factor. keep up the good work m8 :notworthy will be sending you :beersoon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 29, 2008 Author Share Posted July 29, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Tulenos Thanks for the explanation and it's an interesting area to look at. I'll try to keep note of it. Juan King Have your e-mail address so maybe remove it now mate :ok Again interesting thoughts on the whole area of liquidity, Need to watch this from now on. I'll send on the file soon. Asificare :ok Thanks for the support/help guys! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 29, 2008 Author Share Posted July 29, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Results for 29 July 2008 235 BEVERLEY 5/2*Bainisteoir (LAY) L 11/4F 250 GOODWOOD 4/6*Conduit (LAY) W 1/2F 455 BEVERLEY 3/1*Hypnosis (LAY) NR 750 WORCESTER 5/4*Roby De Cimbre (LAY) W 11/8F 815 PERTH 11/8*Apollo Creed (LAY) L 9/4F 915 PERTH 5/2*Leamington Lad (LAY) 2ND 9/4F RR 2250 GOODWOOD 4/6 Conduit (LAY) W 1/2F:cry 750 WORCESTER 5/4 Roby De Cimbre (LAY) W 10/11F :cry 815 PERTH 11/8 Apollo Creed (LAY) L 9/4F :) RR 2 710 PERTH 8/11 Rory Boy (BACK) W 10/11F :cry Ultra Filtered (LAY FAVS ONLY!!) 3235 BEVERLEY 5/2 Bainisteoir (LAY) L 11/4F :) 455 BEVERLEY 3/1 Hypnosis (LAY) NR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 29, 2008 Author Share Posted July 29, 2008 Re: Rating Lays 30 July 2008 235 PERTH 8/11*Regent´s Secret (LAY) 355 REDCAR 7/2*Reel Buddy Star 715 LEICESTER 5/2*Stargazer Jim (LAY) RR 235 PERTH 8/11*Regent´s Secret (LAY) RR 2 330 GOODWOOD 2/5 Henrythenavigator 345 PERTH 5/4 Premier Dane Ultra Filtered (LAY FAVS ONLY!!) 355 REDCAR 7/2*Reel Buddy Star (LAY) 715 LEICESTER 5/2*Stargazer Jim (LAY) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Re: Rating Lays The liquidity matter is important, of course, and I'll try to look at it - some price movements from today's races when I was around: RR 250 GOODWOOD 4/6 Conduit (LAY) 5 min 1.58 – BFSP 1.54 W 750 WORCESTER 5/4 Roby De Cimbre (LAY) 5 min 2.22 – BFSP 2.54 W 815 PERTH 11/8 Apollo Creed (LAY) BFSP 3.83 L - not around before the off RR 2 710 PERTH 8/11 Rory Boy (BACK) 3 min 1.98 – BFSP 2.04 W - was in the 1.7s some 15 mins before the off Ultra Filtered (LAY FAVS ONLY!!) 235 BEVERLEY 5/2 Bainisteoir (LAY) 5 min 4.2 – BFSP 4.1 L 455 BEVERLEY 3/1 Hypnosis (LAY)NR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Re: Rating Lays RR 235 PERTH 8/11*Regent´s Secret (LAY) 5 min 2.4 – BFSP 2.74 RR 2 330 GOODWOOD 2/5 Henrythenavigator 5 min 1.39 – BFSP 1.41 345 PERTH 5/4 Premier Dane 5 min 1.96 – BFSP 1.98 Ultra Filtered (LAY FAVS ONLY!!) 355 REDCAR 7/2*Reel Buddy Star (LAY) NR 715 LEICESTER 5/2*Stargazer Jim (LAY) 5 min 3.8 – BFSP 3.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Not much movement today, bar Regent's Secret which was clearly not wanted before the off and during the race until the final furlong - it kept rising during the race even though it was always there or thereabouts. Stargazer Jim moved in the other direction - over 4.0 before the 5 min mark and then backed steadily - it looks like these things level themselves up over time. And - the liquidity was quite fair in all cases today, with HTN being in the busiest market, of course:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 30, 2008 Author Share Posted July 30, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Tulenos It's a skill in itself this whole area of liquidity. Regent's Secret was quite an odd one. It is a useful indicator in certain scenarios. Obviously though in the case of HTN it's going to be more 'stable' in terms of movements. O'Brien is a bloomin God. He's te Tiger Woods of trainers. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 30, 2008 Author Share Posted July 30, 2008 Re: Rating Lays Results for 30 July 2008 235 PERTH 8/11*Regent´s Secret (LAY) W 6/4 355 REDCAR 7/2*Reel Buddy Star NR 715 LEICESTER 5/2*Stargazer Jim (LAY) L 9/4F RR 235 PERTH 8/11*Regent´s Secret (LAY) W 6/4 :cry RR 2 330 GOODWOOD 2/5 Henrythenavigator W 4/11F :cry 345 PERTH 5/4 Premier Dane W 10/11F :cry Ultra Filtered (LAY FAVS ONLY!!) 355 REDCAR 7/2*Reel Buddy Star (LAY) NR 715 LEICESTER 5/2*Stargazer Jim (LAY) L 9/4F :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted July 30, 2008 Author Share Posted July 30, 2008 Re: Rating Lays I'll do a monthly round-up of the stats after tomorrow's racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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