The Curse of the Flying Dutchman

[whoneedsrio]

The Flying Dutchman, according to folklore, is a ghost ship that can never go home, and is doomed to sail the oceans forever. The Flying Dutchman is usually spotted from afar, sometimes seen to be glowing with ghostly light. It is said that if she is hailed by another ship, her crew will often try to send messages to land or to people long since dead. In ocean lore, the sight of this phantom ship is reckoned by seafarers to be a portent of doom. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

The Systematic Punter, doomed to search forever for the winning system. Often thinks he has found the ultimate method only to find his hopes dashed on the rocks.

A few weeks ago I turned 50 and I found myself looking back and refecting on life in general and also on my chief hobby horse racing.

Now like most of my age I’ve been round the block a few times and theres a few things I’ve always intended to get round to which of course doesn’t always happen.

One of these is a project which I ‘ve been working on since around 2001 but its roots go much deeper into the past, over 30 years in fact.

In the late 70’s I was introduced by a fellow racing fan at work to the weekly publication the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book. This still exists but is now known as the Raceform Update and though much has changed it still contains the readers letters page called sports forum.

Around 1978 a letter was published from one Che Van der Wheil suggesting a swop shop of ideas which would set the page alight. Replies included one that said “When passing round the hat it is normal to throw in some silver yourself, to encourge others and to get a good returnâ€

Another said that he was sure that Van der Wheil voiced the thoughts of many and that it was refreshing that he did not hide behind a ludicrous pseudonym such as “The Flying Dutchmanâ€

Of course after that he was often refered to by that name, hence the title of this piece and also as VDW.

Then the letters started, first a staking plan and then a way to narrow the field by use of the horses last three placings. An example was given using the Irish Champion Hurdle and how he arrived at the winner.

Almost straight away opinion polarized with one camp treating this like the second coming, here was the secret to fleecing the evil bookie and the other crying foul and “after timingâ€

More letters added to “the methodâ€

A way to evaluate class and ability and the use of form and time ratings, till another reader wrote in saying he had had four winners.

VDW replied that the four bets were indeed good things and congratulated the author on spotting the methods key.

Now the debate raged on over weeks and months as to this missing key, other methods were offered by Van der Wheil without ever fully clearing up the first, mudding the waters even more.

Both sides fired broadsides at each other and the whole thing rumbled on through the 80’s.

Sports Forum editor Tony Peach persuded VDW to wite a small booklet for Raceform called “Systematic betting†Other books were published after by Tony Peach of the letters to Sports Forum and interviews with Van der Wheil and at one time many thought that Peach was The Flying Dutchman, something he always denied.

The letters dried up during the 90’s and Peach reported that VDW had retired through ill health and later that he had passed away.

Bernie Ford took over as Sports Forums editor and still barely a week went past without those initials cropping up in a letter.

Then around the milllenium Ford passed the forum baton over to Graham Wheldon.

Many of you will know that Graham is probably the top expert on the draw in this country. He is the author of three Raceform books on the subject, writes a weekly column in Racing & Football Outlook during the flat turf season on the draw, writes also for Raceform Update and the Racing Post, he’s a very busy chap. He also falls firmly into the non-believer camp when it comes to VDW, many times he has asked for selections to be proofed up front and in these days of e-mail and instant messaging why not?

Shortly after taking over he effectivly banned any more Van der Wheil related letters.

Sports Forum now is hardly of any interest with only the occasional decent misstive.

I don’t think this is entirely down to Wheldon banning the VDW stuff, forums such as ours mean replies can be posted quickly, a weekly paper means months can pass while discussions take place where as we can do the same in hours.

However before Graham ended the VDW Sports Forum era he published details of a Van der Wheil forum on Yahoo groups and this is where my involvement really begins.

I have to say that I wasn’t a great believer in the VDW method myself, a lot of the after timed examples didn’t ring true to me and the thing I disliked most was the tone of the letters. I felt that whoever the author was he was talking down to his readers, as if we were expected to kneel before the great master and were unworthy of his wisdom.

Anyway I decided to have a look at the Yahoo group and signed up. There were several hundred posts to read through and a fair sized membership. At first it was quite interesting reading but then it became like Sports Forum again with auguments breaking out. Usually this was someone who was following the masters way to the letter chastizing those who had strayed from the path. In short some of the ego’s in there were almost as big as the original.

Despite this I began to look again at the method and started to rate some races. After a few weeks a pattern seemed to develop and things started to evolve. At first I had seven categories for each horse rated and this took up quite a bit of time, even more so when I added an eighth which was an idea of my own. Gradually I refined this to what it is now four categories, three of the original ones and mine.

I have used this method for about the last five years but only on an infrequent basis, what I have always wanted to do is to run it for a full season, in action and test it completely and this is what I hope to do this Flat season.

The Groundrules.

So how is this going to work?

The method is based on class and consistancy so works in the better class races and non handicaps so I’m going to use Group 1, 2 and 3 races.

Because there is little to go on in many cases 2yo racing is excluded. On this point the racing of 2yo’s has changed greatly over the last 20 or 30 years, many trainers give their better 2yo’s a very light campaign often avoiding the 2yo pattern races and sometimes only running them once or twice in backend maidens and minor stakes. Therefore it is always best to treat 3yo only Group races with a degree of caution, certainly before Royal Ascot.

The Method

Having chosen the race I write down the entire field in racecard order down the lefthand side of my ledger.

Across the top are my four categories headed, F/F, %, E and F/C

F/F is a varriant of the VDW last three form figures. He added the last three placings together, for example: 812 = 11. Anything above 9 is usually given as 0 and would count as 10.

I use the Fineform method hence the F/F, however there was/is a copywrite on this which Fineform strictly guarded. Although I have not seen any of their ads for a good while I would not care to beak the copywrite here.

% is the number of wins divided by the number of runs.

For flat racing I include turf and aw runs together but any runs under NH rules are ignored.

E is for earnings.

The career earnings, win and place, for flat and aw added together in thousands divided by the number of runs (not wins) for example.

£136,500 would be rounded up to 137 and divided by the total runs, say 9 gives 15.22 to two decimal places.

F/C is for fancied/class

This is my baby and is a calculation based on the horses last run involving the prize money for the race, the horses starting price and it’s finishing position and that is as much as I’m saying at this point.

Each horse is rated in the four categories which takes about a minue each using the Racing Post form pages or web site.

Once all have been rated the top three in each category are awarded a star *

If there are joint rated each is given a star, for example a top rated and three joint second rated would each get the star but the next one in third would not.

Any horse with one or no stars is elimated.

Any horse with two stars are also usually rejected although in early season 3yo races a lightly raced type may not have a high E and F/C figure and it may pay to keep an eye on this type.

Three star animals are kept for the shortlist.

Four stars would normally mean automatic selection although the price available would determine if I would bet or not.

Once the shortlist is arrived at it is then a case of deciding whether to reduce the list further by normal form study or if prices allow to back two or more.

Three is usually the maximum on the list and two is the usual number, any race with a shortlist of one would mean, price allowing, a bet.

I have had the odd race with no three or four star horses and these races are best avoided.

Having arrived at the shortlist the idea then is to decide if a bet on one or more is in order, part of this experiment is to see if a true system can be made from this with four star selections the most logical area.

We shall see.

[whoneedsrio]

Nell Gwyn 16.04.2008 Newmarket 7f Group 3 3yo Fillies This is one of those early season 3yo races with lightly raced types & those with high Earnings & Fancied/Class figures from running well in the fairly new 2yo sales races. It's a race that gets the leave alone alarm bells ringing & there are plenty of races to come in a long season. However for the record, Shabiba has 3 stars Anosti, Quiet Elegance & Rinterval have 2 stars each. This early in the season there will be quite a few leave alone races, indeed it's rare for me to bet these days before the Guineas meeting but I have to start somewhere & this is it. Rio.

[welshman 2005]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman heard about van der wheil before, looked on the net and couldnt find much abou him. good luck :ok

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman Good luck with this. Obviously a whole lot of thought and effort has gone into it.

[Marlin]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman Hi whoneedsrio,

This looks interesting. I’ve had an on and off interest in VDW’s writings for quite a while now. From what I recall VDW wrote that it does not always follow that a good thing shows from the preliminary investigation, which tends to suggest that sometimes they do. It will be interesting to see if your system can find them.

Have you found your earnings rating to be more reliable than VDW’s ability rating then or are you still experimenting with it? Either way, best of luck with this.

[ardman123]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman Hello mate looks interesting had a quick read but am unsure if you are backing or laying the selections.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman

Hi whoneedsrio, This looks interesting. I’ve had an on and off interest in VDW’s writings for quite a while now. From what I recall VDW wrote that it does not always follow that a good thing shows from the preliminary investigation, which tends to suggest that sometimes they do. It will be interesting to see if your system can find them. Have you found your earnings rating to be more reliable than VDW’s ability rating then or are you still experimenting with it? Either way, best of luck with this.

Marlin, I always considered this as a way to narrow the field & arrive at a shortlist . The VDW comment that the good thing may not be shown from the preliminary investigation was the sort of thing that wound up the non-believers who questioned the ways that winners were arrived at after the event. With regard to the earnings rating I prefer the total win & place prize money divided by total races to the prize money from wins alone as a win in a valuable but soft race can skew the rating. ardman, I'm a backer not a layer. It's my intention to rate as many of these races as I can & I will be betting. As in my season threads in ATR bets will show prices taken & stakes in points & the running totals. The race today looked one to swerve as stated in my previous post & if there is no stake then I have not had a bet. Infallible which had one star & was not in the shortlist won the Nell Gwyn, the recent record of winners from this race, Speciosa apart, makes poor reading with regard to the 1000 Guineas. I've decided to keep a running total of races rated & shortlisted winners on a Monthly basis & separate from any bets. There are two Group 3's tomorrow at Newmarket & I will post up any shortlisted horses in the morning. Thanks to you both & WFTE & Welshman for your interest & good wishes. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Craven & Earl of Sefton Newmarket 3.45 Group 3 7f 3yo Colts & geldings This used to be the top 2000 Guineas trial but apart rom Haafhd who won here before taking the Guineas in 2004 the recent winners of this have failed in the first classic. This looks a stronger race than most Craven's though. City Leader has 4 stars Ravens Pass has 3 stars Scintillo & Twice Over have 2 stars Normally 4 stars would mean an automatic selection depending on price & City Leader is as long as 16/1 & bigger on Betfair. However he looks held on form by Ravens Pass from the Solario stakes at Sandown where Ravens Pass beat him by 7l at level weights. City Leader then won a Group 2 at Ascot for which he has a 3lb pen today which makes him 3lb worse off with Ravens Pass today. Ravens Pass went on the be 3l third in the Dewhurst on ground which was softer than ideal & he has the best form in the book. Twice Over is two from two in a C&D maiden & a minor stakes here over 10f. Bare form is not up to much but he could be anything (or nothing) Scintillo gets 2 stars because of his win in a Group 1 in Italy which is probably a good example of the rating been skewed by a win in a weak but valuable contest. If Ravens Pass is going to win the 2000 Guineas he needs to take this in style & while he is the probable winner I'm going to leave the race alone at the odds. Earl of Sefton Group 3 9f 4yo+ This race in recent years is getting winners which go on to better things as with Manduro last year who won Group 1's at 8 & 10f & might well have won the Arc but for injury. For 4yo+ races a selection must have at least 3 stars. Pipedreamer has 4 stars Multidimensional has 3 stars. Pipedreamer has a similar profile to Halling who won the Cambridgeshire for Gosden before going on to Group 1 sucess with Godolphin. Pipedreamer steps out of handicaps here & the stable is going well but with only Kandidate a confirmed front runner there may not be much pace on & he has been running in big fields where the pace was strong. Multidimensional has not been easy to train but has Group 2 winning form from France & was hampered & maybe a bit unlucky in the Champion stakes. Of the pair I'd go with Pipedreamer as I like an improving type but I'll only bet at a minimum of 2/1 here & 7/4 is the best on offer. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman A double for Henry Cecil from the two lightly raced types with Twice Over Squeezing onto the shortlist with 2 stars in an early season 3yo race. Newbury John Porter 12f 4yo+ Group 3 Royal & Regal & Malt or Mash both have 3 stars Fred Darling 7f 3yo fillies Group 3 Muthabara has 3 stars Annie Skates, Lady Deauville & Nahoodh have 2 stars Greeenham 7f 3yo C & G Group 3 Paco Boy has 4 stars Beacon Lodge & Sir Gerry 3 stars Confront 2 stars Having just finished a 12 hour night shift & still wary of early season form I'll continue to monitor results for now. Rio.

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman :clap:clap:clap Absolutley awesome, well done Rio I hope you put the 3 together!!!

A double for Henry Cecil from the two lightly raced types with Twice Over Squeezing onto the shortlist with 2 stars in an early season 3yo race. Newbury John Porter 12f 4yo+ Group 3 Royal & Regal & Malt or Mash both have 3 stars 1st Royal & Regal 13/2 :clap Fred Darling 7f 3yo fillies Group 3 Muthabara has 3 stars 1st Muthabara 9/4 F:clap Annie Skates, Lady Deauville & Nahoodh have 2 stars Greeenham 7f 3yo C & G Group 3 Paco Boy has 4 stars 1st Paco Boy 6/1:clap Beacon Lodge & Sir Gerry 3 stars Confront 2 stars Having just finished a 12 hour night shift & still wary of early season form I'll continue to monitor results for now. Rio.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman Nice set of results there!!

[whoneedsrio]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman

:clap:clap:clap Absolutley awesome' date=' well done Rio I hope you put the 3 together!!![/quote'] Nope, not a penny did I have on, as I've said it's rare for me to bet before the Guineas. I'm trying to cover the full flat season although I have a holiday booked in the summer so that won't happen. Working tomorrow & the weekend so the qualifing races will be up the night before. 25/04 Sandown Gordon Richards 10f Group 3 Ask has 4 stars Hattan, Championship Point & Philaelist have 3 stars. A funny race with four quaifiers from seven runners. This is because the F/F category has two in joint first & three in joint second. The class act in the race is Ask who is well in front in the Earnings & F/C categories but who drops back to 10f here, a trip he hasn't run over since June 06. Never the less he looks the one to beat but the money stays in the pocket as he will be a skinny price. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman The class horse Ask wins at 8/13, the two non-runners did not effect anything. Sandown Bet365 Mile Group 2 Major Cadaeux, Medicine path & Rob Roy all have 3 stars. The winner should come from these three. Medicine Path is up in class but progressive & under 2/1. Maor Cadaeux may be best at 7f. Rob Roy returns from a stint in the USA & has won this. Hard to call. Sandown Classic Trial 10f Group 3 Centenial has 4 stars Endless Luck, Latin Lad & Whitcombe Minister have 2 stars. The in form John Gosden has a good record in this & Centenial should like the step up in trip but no bet at under 2/1. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman Major Cadaeux wins the mile race & Centenial the Classic Trial. There is one more qualifing race in April at Ascot on wednesday after which there will be a monthly update before the serious stuff starts at the weekend. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Sagaro Stakes Soapy Danger has 4 stars Distinction has 3 stars as did Tungsten Strke who is a non-runner. Soapy Danger looked a progressive sort in 2006 & won the Queens Vase over C&D but then missed much of last year through injury before running quite well in the Autumn. Won FTO at Doncaster over 12f on ground which was softer than may suit & looks the one to beat back up to 2m on faster ground. Distinction would probably like more cut & usually takes a run or two to hit form. Of the rest Peppertree Lane & Frank Sonata would also prefer softer going. Baddam was runner up in this last year & goes well here but seems to have lost his way a bit & was gelded over the Winter. Shipmaster needs to improve on previous form & is held by Soapy Danger from the Queens Vase win in 06. I'm trying to avoid betting at under 2/1 but with the Johnston yard in decent form there looks to be a case for making my first bet here & I've taken the 6/4 with Betfred. Bet. Soapy Danger 50pts @ 6/4 Betfred. Rio.

[bowles10]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman typically after 5 consecutive winners the 1st one staked fails. Looks interesting though & GL as i will be watching with interest.

[whoneedsrio]

April update

typically after 5 consecutive winners the 1st one staked fails. Looks interesting though & GL as i will be watching with interest.

Boy have I been mentally kicking my backside. Not only did I take under 2/1 when I'm trying not to but I didn't check the weather & the going ended up on the soft side & then the bloody thing drifts to 3/1:eek Anyway April update. The first task is to see how often the winner is shortlisted. There were ten qualifing races in April & from these the winner was in the shortlist seven times (70%) This is quite pleasing as I expected it to be a little lower this early in the season. Quite early in his writings VDW claimed from the start of that years flat season to have placed 32 bets, 29 of which had won (90%) This of course had the after-timers screaming foul. My interpretation of the original method had the shortlist for a race always at three & it's very likely that VDW was backing more than one in a race & maybe even all three. This gives rise to the question if you back three in a race & find the winner is your strike rate 100% or 33.33%? For my part I consider the total outlay on one race to be one bet, others may disagree. At this stage I am not looking at "dutching" all the races in the trial but may do so in some actual bets odds permitting. If I were looking to turn this into a pure system, ie one where the rules dictate a bet is made I would be looking at backing the 4 star selections. To date there have been five 4 star selections, three of which have won at SP's of 6/1, 8/13 & 11/8 which would have returned 10.99pts for 5pts staked at levels, a profit of 5.99pts. I will continue to monitor these selections. Actual bets Wins/Runs 0/1 Stakes 50pts Returns 0pts Profit/Loss -50pts A busy weekend looms with the first two classics & other Group events. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Dahlia stakes & 2000 Guineas Dahlia Stakes A small field of six runners Passage of Time has 4 stars Harvest Queen & Heaven Sent have 3 stars each. If looks won races Passage of Time would win this hands down. I saw her before the Musidora last year & she is the most beautiful filly and no mug either. After winning that trial she flopped in the Oaks but needed treatment for a throat abcess & returned to run cracking thirds in the Prix Vermielle & the Breeders Cup Fillies & Mares. Way in front of these on Earnings & F/C ratings she is the class act in the field. However this could be one of those small field, muddling pace races & that coupled with the drop back in trip & a best price of 6/4 has me leaving this alone. Harvest Queen progressed from handicaps to listed races last season. Shes had one try beyond a mile over 9f at Epsom & didn't get home. Not beaten far in the Group1 Sun Chariot here on her last run but needs to find a bit more. Heaven Sent is the one that puts me off backing Passage of Time. Another who moved up from handicaps last season to have some decent placed form at Listed/Group level. A winner of a weak looking Listed contest at Kempton FTO she's the sort of older horse that Stoutey squeezes more improvement out of. She has though still a bit to find to get to Passage of Times level & I'm sitting this one out. 2000 Guineas. Ibn Khaldun & New Approach both have 4 stars. Unusually nothing else has more than 1 star. New Approach has the best form in the book winning all five starts, all over 7f & on all sorts of ground. Battled on well to take the Dewhurst from the absent here Fast Company & Ravens Pass who had travelled really well but had found the ground just on the soft side. The unbeaten 2yo often doesn't train on & while a mile should be no problem at the price he has too many questions still to answer for me. Ibn Khaldun improved in leaps & bounds last year ending up winning the Racing Post Trophy so we know he gets the trip. Also goes on any ground & said to have worked well in Dubai he looks the type to make a 3yo & at the prices appeals the most. Of the rest, Ravens Pass looked a world beater in the Solario but then was it the ground in the Dewhurst? Also got worried out of it FTO in the Craven & may be one thats needs it all to go his way. Henrythenavigator may have been best as a 2yo & is held by New Approach anyway. Stimulation battled well to win the Free Handicap FTO but this is a big step up here. The rest could be anything or nothing on what they've do so far so it's Ibn Khaldun for me. Bet. Ibn Khaldun 40pts @ 9/2 Skybet. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

VDW & Handicaps I've had a PM from Mileni4uk about a VDW method for handicaps & after replying to him I've run the rule over the days big handicap the 4.00 at Newmarket. When rating handicaps the method involves adding form & time ratings to the mix & it's quite time consuming so this is just a one off because I could never manage during working periods & therefore it's not part of the trial. After ratings for handicaps are complete the top three rated would be the shortlist and in rating order these are, Galeota Genki Kings Apostle Having put the work in a bet seems in order, I'd be a bit worried by Galeota's low draw so I've split 30pts as follows. Galeota 5pts @ 22.0 Betfair Genki 15pts @ 7/1 Sportingbet Kings Apostle 10pts @ 11/1 Sportingbet. We'll see how things go. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Jockey Club, 1000 Guineas & Palace House Stakes The Dahlia stakes as I thought it might be was run at a false pace & the well backed Heaven Sent rather pinched the race. New Approach looked like living up to the hype but was just edged out by Henrythenavigator under a clever Murtagh ride. Ibn Khaldun put in a shocker. Kings Apostle did best in fifth in the handicap. That race is not part of this thread but the loss goes down in my thread in ATR. Actual bets Wins/Runs 0/2 Stakes 90pts Returns 0pts Profit/Loss -90pts Jockey Club Stakes Getaway has 4 stars Nothing else has more than 2 stars in this 4yo+ Group2. Getaway has done most of his racing over a bit farther than this but his best run was LTO in the Arc when a strong finishing fourth beaten under 2l at this trip. Sure to be suited by this stiff track & goes on the ground. No secret of my high regard for his trainer who won this two years ago & doesn't send them over for a day out. Of the rest Yellowstone was well behind Getaway in the Arc & has left Ballydoyle. Galactic Star is another Stoute older horse. Progressive last Autumn in handicaps & listed but disappointing form in the St Simon last run & doesn't look easy to get right. The other class horse is Sixties Icon the 06 St Leger winner who took this FTO last year but then flopped in the Coronation Cup & at Royal Ascot on his only two other starts. Had a breathing op since which doesn't always work & also seems to need fast ground. If he was back to top form he would be a danger but Getaway looks the bet even at a shade under 2/1. Bet. Getaway 50pts @ 9/5 Sportingbet. 1000 Guineas Natagora & Spacious have 3 stars Infallible has 2 stars Natagora has Group 1 form from the Prix morny & the Cheveley Park on this track, beating Fleeting Spirit in the latter with the rest well behind. A few doubts over the mile trip but on breeding she should stay & did win smoothly FTO over 7f on heavy at Maisons-Laffitte. The ground today should be spot on & providing they don't go too fast early on she looks the one to beat. Spacious is unbeaten in two starts the last one being the Group 2 May Hill at Doncaster but how good was that race? Likely to be a decent 3yo but a bit to find on form so far. Infallible is also two from two, both here over 7f, the first a backend maiden & then an impresive return in the Nell Gwyn but again how good is the form? Of the rest Muthabara is the third two from two filly & should be suited by the step up to a mile after taking an age to get going in the Fred Darling before looking good in the last furlong. Had an injury scare during the week though. O'Brien runs two but both have plenty to find as does the other Irish raider Saoirse Abu. After yesterday I wouldn't touch the Godolphin horse with a barge pole & the rest look to be giving the owners a day out. I'll take the filly with the form in the book. Bet. Natagora 50pt @ 3/1 Stan James. Palace House. Sakhee's Secret & Captain Gerrard both have 3 stars. Sakhee's Secret is the class act but drops back to 5f here & needs fast ground to show his very best & the trainer blamed the overwatered ground at Haydock for his disappointing run LTO. Also has an 8lb pen here for his Group1 win in the July Cup and unlikely to be spot on here with bigger fish to fry later. Captain Gerrard is the only 3yo but they have a fair record in this with two wins & three places from 20 runners. Front runner who has Listed & Group3 winning form, ground should be ok & any rain would be a bonus. Said to have done well over the Winter & is a fair price here. Of the rest the filly Enticing looked most progressive FTO last season but then tailed off quickly. Rowe park also did well last season but needs to step up again. Reverence has had a few injuries & looks on the downgrade & would also need it soft/heavy. Conquest, Hoh Hoh Hoh, Judd Street, Matsunoske & Zidane all look like handicappers trying to nab a Group3 to me, I'll have a go with the 3yo. Bet. Captain Gerrard 25pts @ 10/1 Sportingbet. Rio.

[Brad]

Re: Jockey Club, 1000 Guineas & Palace House Stakes Top marks on a superb hat trick whoneedsrio. First rate analysis on all three races.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Jockey Club, 1000 Guineas & Palace House Stakes

Top marks on a superb hat trick whoneedsrio. First rate analysis on all three races.

Thanks Brad, :welcometo the PL. A good day at the Office. Getaway was most impressive off not too strong a gallop. A top ride from Lemaire on Natagora, getting to the front & setting just the right pace. The cherry on the cake from Captain Gerrard who must be a major player in all the 5f sprints. Stakes today 125pts Returns 615pts A profit of 490pts on the day. Actual bets Wins/Runs 3/5 Stakes 215pts Returns 615pts Profit/Loss +400pts Rio.

[tafflizgreg]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman absolutly magnificent tipping well done:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap

[jtw1]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman Very impressive results so far mate . Will be keeping an eye on this one :ok

[Marlin]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman Well done Rio, some great analysis and results there.

[whoneedsrio]

Huxley Stakes & the Chester Vase I'm not a fan of Chester, there are enough variables in this game without having horses racing round a glorified greyhound track. That much is made of the draw & getting the right position that a lot of the time those drawn wide go off too fast to get to the inside while others still try to sit at the back and come late up the short straight. Another of the Raceform Update Sports Forum contributers Macintosh said, "I'm only interested in the best, this means Group1 And/or televised meeting (the only exception to this is Chester which I avoid like the plague for reasons that I hope will be obvious)" I have to agree with him and would only watch the meeting for future clues with the money staying firmly in the pocket. Much of VDW's writings were about temperament and one of the keys for success for me is knowing when not to bet, it's one of the punters major weapons. The bookie has to offer odds on the race, you on the other hand are not obliged to make a wager. It can be hard after working on a race not to have some financial interest, indeed I did it myself with that handicap last week :spank but more often than not leaving well alone is the best option. I've rated todays two Group races & will do the two tomorrow because I've stated that this trial will be on as many qualifying races as possible and to be honest with only small fields todays races took little time to rate anyway. Huxley Stakes 4yo+ Group3 10.5f Maraahel & Multidimensional have 3 stars each. Maraahel tries to win this for the fourth time on the spin so he clearly goes on the track, however on all three occasions he had had a run before hand, each time in the John Porter at Newbury & he has yet to score FTO. He also as a 5lb pen for winning a Group2 last season. Multidimensional has had some injury problems & is quite lightly raced for a 5yo. Didn't run till September last season when winning a minor stakes at Newbury & then ran into traffic problems in the Champion stakes at Newmarket where he may have finished a bit closer. Similar story again at Newmarket, in a steady run Group3 on his return, likely to improve for that. Of the rest Stotsfold needs to find a bit on form shown so far. Championship Point usually struggles at this level. Majounes Song is a filly with a Group3 pen from a win in Germany & this is harder against the males. Spice Route is another who will struggle at this level. If forced to bet it would be Multidimensional, but I'm not so I ain't. Chester Vase 3yo Colts & geldings 12.5f Pampas Cat has 3 stars All the Aces, Doctor Freemantle, Feared in Flight & Vivaldi all have 2 stars. 8 runners & 5 shortlisted which would have the alarm bells ringing as a leave alone race at any track never mind round here. It is interesting though that Pampas Cat has 3 stars from only one run, the missing tick being in the Fancied/Class rating from his 5l win in a Newmaket maiden where he went off at 20/1. The third there took a Windsor maiden after & the runner up won at Chester yesterday so the form is working out & Pampas Cat could be quite useful. The others all have a mixture of 2 stars from different categories & all bar All the Aces are trying this trip for the first time. Also only Feared in Flight has any Group race form, the rest steping up in class from maidens or handicaps. Another leave alone event. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Dee & Ormonde Stakes Maraahel looked like landing the fourtimer but was nabbed close home by the race fit Championship Point, had he had a run before he would probably have prevailed. Multidimensional didn't quicken when asked & may now have his own ideas about the game although Ted Durcan had him that far back I suspect he thought he was riding Pegasus. Doctor Freemantle improved from his handicap debut to land the Chester Vase & time will show how high the level of form is but I don't see any of these winning a big race. Dee Stakes 10.5f Group3 Alexandros has 4 stars Achill Island & Midnight Muse have 2 stars. Alexandros was with Andre Fabre as a 2yo & improved all the time, winning at Listed & Group3 before rounding off with a 2.5l third in the Group1 Prix Morny beaten by Myboycharlie & the 1000 Guineas winner Natagora. Achill Island also has some Group form with a second in the Group2 Royal Lodge at Ascot & then the same placing in the Breeders Cup juvenile Turf, both on softish ground. Seemed to flounder in the mud on his return in France & his one win so far was when racing on good ground for the only time but that was just a Tipperary maiden. Interesting to see how he goes today on this much faster surface. Midnight Muse takes a huge leap up in class here & is hard to fancy. Of the rest. Tajaaweed won his maiden FTO last year then was chucked in the deep end in the Racing Post Trophy & was tenth of twelve. Likely to improve this season but others have classier form so far. North Parade & Unnefer both need to improve on form so far & the latter is quite exposed having had six runs already. Normally I'd be backing Alexandros here but with my dislike of the track & more importantly the poor showing from the stable so far this is a leave alone. Ormonde Stakes 13.5f 4yo+ Group3 Raincoat has 3 stars Raincoat looked progressive early last season with a minor win & a decent second to Authorized in the Dante. Never challenged in the French Derby but then ran well in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood beaten about a length which looked a fair St Leger trial. Ended up last at Doncaster though appearing not to stay but may just have had enough for he season. Won a minor stakes at Ripon on return which is not much cop on bare form but stable is in good nick & he should go well here. Of the rest. Macarthur should improve as most of O'Brien's have done for his return run at the Curragh. In front of Raincoat in the St Leger but he's only won once & that was on his one 2yo start & has looked a bit one paced which won't help on this sharp track. Red Gala is one of those older Stoute horses thats moved up from handicaps to Group level but so far doesn't look quite up to it. Tempelstern is another upped in class & was a fair third at this level FTO this season at Newbury. Soft ground that day & both wins so far have come with cut in the ground. I was going to leave this race alone too but the 6/1 at Paddy Power for Raincoat is a big price in a weak looking race & is worth a small wager. Bet. Raincoat 20pts @ 6/1 Paddy Power. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Lingfield derby Trial & Chartwell Fillies Stakes I think it was Mark Coton who wrote about the Gambling Gods & tempting fate, the sort thing like when your horse is ten lengths clear heading to the final fence & the thought pops into your head "it's only got to jump this" & the beast crumples on landing on the other side. Now I know thats just a load of rubbish but I could almost see what was coming yesterday, did I not say that either they go too fast to try to get to the front or lay too far back. After the race Jim McGrath said that Dettori was always niggling along, not to my eyes. He never asked the horse for any effort until turning into the straight & for me was too far back. If the other horse had not got in his way he would have probably got second, as it is Tom Quealy's got a ban for careless riding & Dettori shouldn't have even been there. I must not back at Chester :spank Actual bets Wins/Runs 3/6 Stakes 235pts Returns 615pts Profit/Loss +380pts Both races went to horses not shortlisted. Lingfield Derby Trial 11.5f Group3 Allessandro Volta & Campanologist have 4 stars By Command has 3 stars Alan Devonshire has 2 stars When I assessd this race Curtain Call was in the field but even then it looked a race to swerve. Now we have four on the shortlist from five runners, it happens with these small fields & the race is only included here because it's a qualifying race. Chartwell Fillies Stakes. 7f Group3 3yo+ Sabana Perdida & Verba both have 4 stars. Sabana Perdida has form at a higher level than this including a good third in the Group2 Windsor Forest at Royal Ascot last year. Took a Group3 at Longchamp after which was her last start. The key to her seems to be the ground & she should love the fast going today. The stable is in good form & have a fine record when sending them over here. Verba is a 3yo with two minor stakes wins & a 4l third at this level with all three starts on soft/heavy. Made all on return over 6f at Maisons-Laffitte so looks to have trained on but was held up & pulled hard on her other two starts, may go off too fast here & will she handle the going? Of the rest. The best of ours looks to be Salsa Steps, both wins came on fast ground & at 6f in a maiden & FTO this season in a minor Windsor handicap where she was a good winner. This is a big leap in class here & she was never dangerous on her try at Listed class last season but that was on soft ground. The more experienced Sabana Perdida can take another prize back to France. Bet. Sabana Perdida 50pts @ 5/2 Coral. Rio.

[Brad]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman Once again, excellent analysis and selection Rio. Here's to a good York.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: The Curse of the Flying Dutchman

Once again, excellent analysis and selection Rio. Here's to a good York.

Thanks again Brad, I'm back at work next week (12 hour nights) I will be rating the races at York but the write-ups will probably be a bit shorter. Allessandro Volta won the Derby Trial, staying on well close home & with maybe a bit in hand. Sabana Perdida landed the other race in good style with the other 4 star filly Verba in second. This was a decent performance has she had a 4lb penalty for her Group3 win. Actual bets Wins/Runs 4/7 Stakes 285pts Returns 790pts Profit/Loss +505pts Rio.