Group B

[Crazy North]

Re: Group B Sport Football (Internationals) EventCroatia-Austria SelectionCroatia Strength10/10 Date08/06/2008 Bookmaker/Price>Paddy Power @ 1.91 (Back) Reasoning Here i expect Croatia to win although it will not going to be an easy match as Austrians will fight but their quality is really low.Many people are saying that Austrians have home adventage but i dissagree as many Croatians will be attending today,about 40-50% of whole stadium which is quite lot.I see Croatia better in all aspects here and anything except their win here would be a suprise.Also this odds are quite good as i am pretty sure you wont see them after this match and they will be much lower when Austria face Poland or Germany.

[Crazy North]

Re: Group B SportFootball (Internationals) EventGermany-Poland SelectionGermany Strength10/10 Date08/06/2008 Bookmaker/PriceExpekt @ 1.55 (Back) Reasoning Germany here is big favourite for me as i believe they are class better than Poland and they will prove that tonight.Also Germany hasnt won a match in last two European championships so here they will big motivation to win finally as they will have big support of their fans.Listening to Ballack interview it is clear they are very motivated to win this game and i believe they will do so maybe not so easy but they will win in the end.

[tougher than the rest]

Re: Group B

Croatia will beat Austria and Germany but will share points with Poland (in their last, meaningless group stage match). Germany -1 over Poland - it won't be a close affair - trust me. Both "traitors" mentioned above will take care of our defence and "Big Mac" Boruc. Total goals for Poland in the group stage to be under 3,5 (1.75 local bookie) - well, if you believe in a thing called "sure bet" it should be your choice. To break this line we would have to score against Ger, Cro and twice against Aut. Mission impossible :dude

I wish I had more faith in Polish team :@ Podolski & Klose - both born in Poland - perfectly took control over our shaky defence and we had barely a chance upfront. For the next match vs Austria I see a HUGE value in host's win at odds close to 3.0. I rate this game to be 45-35-20 in favour of Austria. It seems also that the bet for Poland to score under 3,5 will be a winner. On Germany - they weren't forced to show their full potential vs Poland so it's quite hard to predict how far will they go. They may have seriuos troubles vs Croatia who defend much better than Poland did today.

[JCtips]

Re: Group B

My bets for Sunday: Austria-Croatia Miracles do happen but unless a miracle happens Austria will be packing their bags after the group stage and go (or is it stay?) home. They were not present in any of the last 3 Euro Final stage competitions, they rank 92nd in the FIFA ranking (evidence that they're a poor team) and even Austrians joke about them being the tournament. They have one or two interesting players like striker Roland Linz from Braga but that's about it. Croatia is a good team (much better than Austria) with a lot more experience at this level as they reached the quarter finals in 1996 and also participated in 2004. They had a very good run in the Qualifying stages and despite the absence of Arsenal's striker Eduardo they can surely beat Austria in their home ground. At this price (1.95) it surely looks like a "value" bet for me. My pick: Croatia -0.5 AH (Asian Handicap); won Germany-Poland Interesting game this one. Germany won the 1996 Euro in England but after that they have not won a single game both in 2000 and in 2004 group stages...this makes them the top team in the competition with the longest winless streak despite being the ones with the most Euro titles (3 in total)...funny thing. German team is strong but a few players had a poor season and the centre defenders are slow and not up to the rest of the team which might cause them problems. Poland never beat Germany before according to my records but they surely had a great Qualifying campaign, have some very good players and "old fox" coach Leo Beenhakker (a great coach IMO) surely has them playing like a team and a hard one to beat. Last 3 official games between these teams were unders with a 0-0 draw and two Germany victories by 1-0. I see the Germans as favorites but will not jump on their bandwagon. My pick: Poland +1,25 AH (Asian Handicap); lost Good luck! JC

1-1-0 yesterday. :cheers JC

[josedias]

Re: Group B Soccer - European Championship 2008 Austria - Poland Pick: 1 Unit 2.30 @ Bet-at-home 12 June 19:45 Game between the two teams that had lost the first game in Group B. This is a game of maximum importance for both, who lose automatically is moved away from the Quarter-Finals of EURO 2008. Austria plays at home, but its limitations are well known, they are considered by all the weakker team in the Euro, and that are only present for being one of the host countries of the Euro. Although all its fragilities, made a good game against Croatia, but are insufficient Croatia scored a goal in the first minutes and held this advantage until the final whistle. Poland are stronger , made an excellent qualification having been in first place of their group ahead of Portugal, Serbia and Belgium. In the first game of this Euro they had lost with one of the great favourites, powerful Germany but they had made a good game, tried to fight with Germany but defensive errors had knocked down Poland. Austria playing at home will have a bigger support, this can be bad because it gonna create greater nervousness in the inexperienced team of Austria. Poland will enter in this game very concentrated and determined to be successful, they have players of better quality and that are foccused in following for the Quarter-Finals. [url=http://apostadesonho.com.sapo.pt/BOAS%20PICKSeng.html]

[tougher than the rest]

Re: Group B

Soccer - European Championship 2008 Austria - Poland Pick: 1 Unit 2.30 @ Bet-at-home 12 June 19:45 Poland will enter in this game very concentrated and determined to be successful, they have players of better quality and that are foccused in following for the Quarter-Finals.

The quality is on the Polish side but hosts can easily offset the skills gap with their remarkable determination. I don't expect Poland to perform much better than Croatia did. Hence Austria is going to pull off at least a point from this game. A draw seems to be a reasonable call :drums

[nicko]

Re: Group B Poland imo has more determination and discipline than Croatia, physically they are excellent. Add to that some great names in the squad plus a good manager and I can't see beyond a win by the Poles vs Austria. In fact I won't be surprised if they beat higher handicaps, it's not that I am not happy with the odds for a straight win :) Losing to Germany was expected, a bit of a worry is that the Germans on few occasions could easily beat the offside trap. On the other hand the Poles managed to create, both when they were 1-0, and later 2-0 down, and the chances they had were no accident at all, vs a German defence who performed better than I expected. A win by Poland will be my main bet for the next 2 days.

[JCtips]

My picks for Thursday: Croatia-Germany It should be a very interesting game this one. Croatia scored early against Austria and just defended the rest of the game getting away with a win. Germany showed great form against Poland (nice team play with great dynamics and fast ball movement) and will surely be looking at keeping the momentum going. A win here would almost surely mean they would avoid Portugal in the quarter-finals. Germany is the favourite here but Croatia cannot be underestimated as they have many quality players. Both teams scored in 8 of their last 10 games, both teams have plenty of players that can surely score (Klasnic, Olic, Kranjcar and Modric for Croatia and Klose, Gomez, Podolski and Ballack among others for Germany). As IMO the odd is a bit low for a German victory, I'll take the "over 2 goals" as the price seems like a nice one to me at 1.78. My pick: >2; Austria-Poland Austria has a lot of will and determination but they're surely the worst team in the tournament and that showed IMO in their previous game against Croatia. They use an old "kick and rush" type of play with a 3-2-3-2 formation (only team using only 3 defenders in the tournament) in which the offensive midfield trio gets close to the attacking duo everytime the ball gets kicked forward. On the other side we have a Polish team that had a great qualifying campaign but that sucked in their 1st game against Germany, during which they were completly outplayed, made some huge defensive mistakes and also Euzebius Smolarek (their best player IMO) was a complete "zero" (the German defense never let him get into the game). Poland is also the team in Euro 2008 that conceded more goals during the qualifying stage (a total of 12 in 14 games). I see value in taking the "over 2" (1.89) again as I expect several goals in this match and will also bet that Smolarek will be the "man of the match" (odd at 8.00) as he'll have a lot more space for his plays tomorrow and will look at bouncing back from the poor performance in the previous match. My picks: >2 and Smolarek "Man of the Match"; Good luck! JC

[boyd]

Re: Group B Austria v Poland After seeing the previous meetings between the two sides i am going for over 2.5 goals as my main bet at 13/8 on betfair and a small bet on over 3.5 goals at 5.3 on betfair. Both teams will know that they have to win to stand any chance of qualifying for the knockout stages which could lead to an open game. I don't think the outcome of Germany and Croatia will really affect the way Austria and Poland will need to play their game, as i think neither can settle for a draw. Poland did very well in qualifying for the tournament and after their bad start against Germany in first half hour, did start to play better and should create many chances against Austria, while Austria will try to put in a committed performance in front of their fans and look to create against a team they realistically only have any chance of taking any points from in the group. Poland have scored three goals against Austria in three of the last four games, including two victories in world cup 2006 qualifiers 3-1 and 3-2 so i feel there could be another goal feast, hopefully anyway!!! :hope

[JCtips]

Re: Group B

My picks for Thursday: Croatia-Germany It should be a very interesting game this one. Croatia scored early against Austria and just defended the rest of the game getting away with a win. Germany showed great form against Poland (nice team play with great dynamics and fast ball movement) and will surely be looking at keeping the momentum going. A win here would almost surely mean they would avoid Portugal in the quarter-finals. Germany is the favourite here but Croatia cannot be underestimated as they have many quality players. Both teams scored in 8 of their last 10 games, both teams have plenty of players that can surely score (Klasnic, Olic, Kranjcar and Modric for Croatia and Klose, Gomez, Podolski and Ballack among others for Germany). As IMO the odd is a bit low for a German victory, I'll take the "over 2 goals" as the price seems like a nice one to me at 1.78. My pick: >2; won Austria-Poland Austria has a lot of will and determination but they're surely the worst team in the tournament and that showed IMO in their previous game against Croatia. They use an old "kick and rush" type of play with a 3-2-3-2 formation (only team using only 3 defenders in the tournament) in which the offensive midfield trio gets close to the attacking duo everytime the ball gets kicked forward. On the other side we have a Polish team that had a great qualifying campaign but that sucked in their 1st game against Germany, during which they were completly outplayed, made some huge defensive mistakes and also Euzebius Smolarek (their best player IMO) was a complete "zero" (the German defense never let him get into the game). Poland is also the team in Euro 2008 that conceded more goals during the qualifying stage (a total of 12 in 14 games). I see value in taking the "over 2" (1.89) again as I expect several goals in this match and will also bet that Smolarek will be the "man of the match" (odd at 8.00) as he'll have a lot more space for his plays tomorrow and will look at bouncing back from the poor performance in the previous match. My picks: >2 and Smolarek "Man of the Match"; push&lost Good luck! JC

Not a bad day yesterday considering what happened. :cheers JC

[tougher than the rest]

Re: Group B Some shocking odds for Croatia to beat Poland in the last round of Gruop B (e.g. Expekt offers 3.0). There is more than a gap in quality of both teams, the spirit in Polish team is low and even Beenhakker, who used to show how optimistic he is, said that he did not believe we have a chance to reach QF. Of course I don't expect Croatia to push hard for three points but Poland is soooo weak in the midfield and in the defence that even if Croatia plays with its second choice of players they definitely should have a number of opportunities to beat The Holy Goalie. I rate this game to be 15-35-50 in favour of Croatia, hence a huge value bet with this odds. Also Croatia not to lose at 1.60 appeals and this is truly a banker IMHO :hope

[DJ]

Re: Group B Problem with going in heavy on Croatia is that they may rest a lot of their star players like Modric, Olic and Srna. Croatia are Group B Champions, thanks to their head-to-head record against Germany and the 2-1 win. Even if Croatia lose and Germany win then Croatia stay top. I think I would be very cautious of backing any of the teams who have nothing to gain in their last fixture.

[JCtips]

Re: Group B

Problem with going in heavy on Croatia is that they may rest a lot of their star players like Modric' date=' Olic and Srna. Croatia are Group B Champions, thanks to their head-to-head record against Germany and the 2-1 win. Even if Croatia lose and Germany win then Croatia stay top. I think I would be very cautious of backing any of the teams who have nothing to gain in their last fixture.[/quote'] I agree it is a nice odd (3.00) on Croatia but also agree with DJ here. Sometimes managers (Beenhakker in this case) say that to the outside world in order to mislead opponents and then they have a completely different speach in the locker room...

[tougher than the rest]

Re: Group B

Problem with going in heavy on Croatia is that they may rest a lot of their star players like Modric' date=' Olic and Srna. Croatia are Group B Champions, thanks to their head-to-head record against Germany and the 2-1 win. Even if Croatia lose and Germany win then Croatia stay top. I think I would be very cautious of backing any of the teams who have nothing to gain in their last fixture.[/quote'] Your points are 100% correct, therefore I wrote that Croatia is a value bet and not an obvious choice considering lineup ;) Nevertheless you have to take under consideration that substitute players always want to give a good performance - especially on such a big event like EC and in front of >10000 Croatian supporters. I think that this could even turn into an additional advantage for Croatia because they can field a rested and "hungry" for play team while in game vs Austria afer 60 minutes many Poles looked like they were going to pass away on the pitch and the game vs Croatia will be our third in 7 days. I believe that European Championship is something special for every player and team - Poland will play for pride and for Beenhakker but I don't expect Croatia to give away such a game just like that. GLA

[tougher than the rest]

Re: Group B According to Croatian newspaper "24sata" the starting eleven will be: Pletikosa - Corluka, Simic, Knezevic, Pranjic - Rakitic, N. Kovac, Vukojevic, Kranjcar - Klasnic, Petric It doesn't look bad ;) R.Kovac, Simunic, Srna and Modric won't play because they have already been booked. Olic is also expected to miss the game.

[DJ]

Re: Group B

According to Croatian newspaper "24sata" the starting eleven will be: Pletikosa - Corluka, Simic, Knezevic, Pranjic - Rakitic, N. Kovac, Vukojevic, Kranjcar - Klasnic, Petric It doesn't look bad ;) R.Kovac, Simunic, Srna and Modric won't play because they have already been booked. Olic is also expected to miss the game.

So once again by saying that Srna, Modric and Olic were going to be dropped looks like I'm right again. ;) And value only exists if there are good reasons why a bet should win with that value not reasons why the value is there in the first place and why the odds are higher. I understand your view points that Croatia are still the better team and sure they may well win and good luck to you if you take the bet but I'm going to leave it alone.

[DeMMa]

Re: Group B If Austria beat Germany... does that knock out Germany, and Austria & Croatia go through??

[chiqo]

Re: Group B

If Austria beat Germany... does that knock out Germany' date=' and Austria & Croatia go through??[/quote'] answered you in the Germany/Austria thread DeMMa (was the same question) ;);)

[JCtips]

Re: Group B Austria-Germany Well, Germany are the clear favorites here but this poor in quality but big at heart Austria team is having a tournament above general expectations when considering their value and playing at home for the chance of a lifetime I would not underestimate them. Austria plays in an unusual these days and at this level 3-2-3-2 "kick and rush" model which is, in theory, an attacking style of play...funny thing is that they have 13 unders in their last 20 overall games, have 2 unders and have scored only once in this group stage. It should be a hard fight and not easy to the more skillful team (Germany). My pick: Austria +1 AH (Asian Handicap); Poland-Croatia Croatia already qualified, will spare at least half the team but this doesn't mean they will give the game away as the substitutes will try to show coach Billic they can make the 1st team. Still, all the pressure to win is on the other side (Poland) and after they let the previous game slip away in an injury time penalty they will go "all in" on this one in order to have a chance of qualifying. My pick: Poland 0 AH (Asian Handicap); Good luck! JC

[JCtips]

Re: Group B

Austria-Germany Well, Germany are the clear favorites here but this poor in quality but big at heart Austria team is having a tournament above general expectations when considering their value and playing at home for the chance of a lifetime I would not underestimate them. Austria plays in an unusual these days and at this level 3-2-3-2 "kick and rush" model which is, in theory, an attacking style of play...funny thing is that they have 13 unders in their last 20 overall games, have 2 unders and have scored only once in this group stage. It should be a hard fight and not easy to the more skillful team (Germany). My pick: Austria +1 AH (Asian Handicap); Poland-Croatia Croatia already qualified, will spare at least half the team but this doesn't mean they will give the game away as the substitutes will try to show coach Billic they can make the 1st team. Still, all the pressure to win is on the other side (Poland) and after they let the previous game slip away in an injury time penalty they will go "all in" on this one in order to have a chance of qualifying. My pick: Poland 0 AH (Asian Handicap); Good luck! JC

1. Push 2. lost and for the first time in this competition I feel my analysis/prediction was off regardless of the outcome. Poland didn't play with any sense of urgency, considering they were playing "a final", and Croatia were the better team for 75m. I also do not understand why Poland coach LB left their best player Smolarek sitting in the bench only to bring him in after the 55th minute (and what a difference in the team once he came in). :cheers JC

[tougher than the rest]

Re: Group B

Some shocking odds for Croatia to beat Poland in the last round of Gruop B (e.g. Expekt offers 3.0). There is more than a gap in quality of both teams, the spirit in Polish team is low and even Beenhakker, who used to show how optimistic he is, said that he did not believe we have a chance to reach QF. Of course I don't expect Croatia to push hard for three points but Poland is soooo weak in the midfield and in the defence that even if Croatia plays with its second choice of players they definitely should have a number of opportunities to beat The Holy Goalie. I rate this game to be 15-35-50 in favour of Croatia, hence a huge value bet with this odds. Also Croatia not to lose at 1.60 appeals and this is truly a banker IMHO :hope

:cow I'm really depressed because of our national team and the accuracy of my prediction. I wish I was wrong but life goes on and the money on my betting account will help me to ease my worries about our quit :rollin