Nottingham 02/04/08

[billy the punter]

2.10 This is a typical competitive affair but I'm hoping Diademas can take full advantage of the fact that he is fit whilst a lot of his rivals are having their first run. Although he's only won once he is fairly consistent, finding the frame on 53% (9/17) of his starts. It seems that he prefers a bit of give as when we dismiss his fast ground/fast dirt form he has made the front two on 71% of starts (5/7 - form 2142232 based on easy ground/fibresand). He should love this soft ground where others may not. He blasted off from the front last time but tired late and was picked up, he may want some catching here though. Nottingham front-runners do ok and his added fitness may make the difference. He is off a career low mark here, 18lb lower than his mark last July, odd as he has been fairly consistent like I say. His stable is in form and he could be value. If he runs anything like he did last time there will be ample opportunity to 'get out' in running for no loss too. Little Fizzer ran a fair race to win on her debut but disappointed slightly on her two handicaps to date. She has been off the course for two months since and perhaps there was something amiss. She is still somehwhat of an unknowned quantity so a saver is in order. Diademas 50% of stake 11 betfair Little Fizzer 50% of stake 4.10 I've been looking at the betfair market for this race since it opened yesterday afternoon, reason being, there was a horse that jumped out at me as soon as I saw the decs yesterday morning. Unfortunately, there has only been peanuts on offer to back this horse, so far. The horse in question is the James Fanshawe filly Nutkin. She was deemed good enough to line up in a Newmarket maiden FTO but showed nothings that day - usual for stable debutants. She could be the typical older horse improver for the yard. She left that run behind on her 2nd start though in a Kempton maiden, finishing 4th of 14 at 50/1, running on strong over the mile trip. The winner that day, Amarna, since then showed form lines of 1121 winning off 90 on his final start. The 2nd (Double Doors) showed 3113 after ending the season on 83. The 3rd (Andmoreagain) won her only start after. The 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th all won at least one race after. These finished the season on marks of 73, 68, 80, 82, 66+, 72, 80 respectively. On this form alone she is a blot on the handicap of 69, remember this was an inadequate trip too. There is bundles of stamina on each side of the family. However there is more, she was upped in trip to 1m2f on her next start on heavy ground - she bolted up beating Maslak (now rated 84), and they were clear on the 3rd. It was no surprise that she went off a short favourite for her final start and handicap debut. She 'flopped' and finished 4th, although she travelled really well. She either didn't have enough experience or she may not be totally straightforward. After all she had to be mounted outside the paddock for that Kempton run. If she is straightforward, which is likely (I'm forgiving her the last run, she has apparently come on this season) then is she as good as you can get to a cert off this mark. It may not be today due to fitness etc but it will be soon. She is high on my horses to follow this season. The stable is 33% with older horses here, and champion jockey elect is 50% with older horses for the yard. Nutkin 100% of stake 4.6 betfair

[BillyHills]

Re: Nottingham 02/04/08 340 Notts : Veenwouden In the absence of any jump racing i'll go for the listed event at Nottingham, Veenwouden steadily improved all last year and would be worse off at the weights in a handicap. Ryan Moore won on her last season so knows the horse and stays the trip well enough. A few of her rivals have something to prove at the moment so maybe this is the time to get on the favourite.