AFL Rd. 3.

[TazaD]

Right...Dogs?...oh dear...where to start?! Now, obviously we can't read too much into last week's mauling, but it does make me feel a lot better abuot trusting Rd. 1's numbers... Adelaide are a similar defensive minded team to St. Kilda (in fact Crows D numbers were signficantly better than the Saints last year...2.15 to 1.93!!)...and the Dogs managed 56-57 I50's and a shot every 1.81! From what I've seen so far, the forward line seems to be functioning SO much better than I expected...Murphy 100% and moving freely, Hahn close to full pace, Welsh has (very!?) quietly kicked 3 in each game, Aker back to somewhere near 100%...starting to think this group can really trouble some teams now... ...clearly the problem is the back end. One of the worst defensive midfields in the AFL, and allowing a shot every 1.78 already. Riewoldt, Gehrig, Kosi...things could get nasty. Having said that, they traditionally haven't! Saints have only scored more than 100 2 times in last 10 meetings... ...and, some bad signs last week for their midfield, with Carlton actually edging them 54-53 for I50's! If the Doggies can at least break even in the middle (and the Crows game suggests they can to me), then I don't see any reason why this isn't a 50/50 game at best. Rd. 18 last year they played a draw at the Dome...Just looking at the stats I guess Gehrig went down early (just 1 mark, no kicks), but at the same time the Dogs were without Hahn, Gilbee, Griffen!! Not sure I'm that tempted by the +16.5 or so on offer, 'cause realistically if the Saints start to roll, they could easily win by 4-5 goals...but seeing 2.85 or so for the Dogs is huge to me!! Saints have won 7 of last 10 in dome, but only 2 of those have been by more than 17 (Carlton and Freo!...both of whom had just 5 less shots!!)...so, I guess I will be tempted by 17.5 or more afterall... As a supporter I'm reasonably confident of a win...definately can't see anything to suggest Saints should be such big favs. Hopefully there'll be a lowish total too, based on last year's game...but at the risk of going 0-3 on my own team, definately leaning to the Dogs and a possible over in this one. Sorry Pawa, but I think the Hawks win, but 1.40 is a bit tight. North look to have some problems scoring...just 27 shots v. Richmond is a worry! Hawks on fire...a shot every 1.52 entries!!!...Admittedly against 2 of the AFL's worst D's, but do like them to be able to outscore your boys in the dome. Not real interested from a betting pov tho...in fact Kangas at ~3.00 is pretty big, considering they've won the last 2 meetings late last year... ...bit early for the books to be crimping favs prices I would have thought , but yeah, I think the Hawks do win. Does anyone outside WA care?...Eagles can't score, Freo can't stop anyone...neither team has shown an ounce of form going back to mid last year... The only thing I can see is that WC have a HUGE avantage in clearances, and av. 10 clangers less per game! 1-1 last year, Haselby was BOG for Freo in both games...Judd has a monster in the WC win...what a shitty game to try to pick! Swans interest me a lot...Goodes (likely) out, but no too concerned. What have Brisbane done? Got beaten by a crappy Eagles team, and statistically smashed by the Pies last week...bailed out by some dubious umpiring?! 12 less I50's, 20 less clearances and 15 less contested possies!! Managed to score every 1.42 entries (somehow?!) which just won't happen this week. Swans crushed Port in just about every way possible last week...at home sure, but the 'Gabba is no concern. Brisbane haven't won in the last 7 meetings...their last win was by just 2 points as 1.30 home favs...have lost 2 and drawn 1 of last 3 at home...the draw (last season) Sydey had 5 more shots (Hall 1.5!) 4 more I50's and 33-20 clearances. No Kennelly either in that game (although Charman went down during for Brisbane) Brisbane are dead last for I50's so far through 2 games, so I don't see how they score enough against this Sydney D to trouble them. Seeing 2.21 @ PP, and liking it! Carlton +10 (hopefully)...Reality check for the Bombers last week...yeah, up against the best, but a measly 6 goals...miss Lucas much? Carlton won in Rd. 3 last season, despite Hird being BOG, and Lucas kicking 3.5 with 11 marks... ...Essendon by 10 in Rd. 20, but same amount of shots, Hird and Lucas had 40 possies and a couple of goals between them, and Fev hardly touched it. The Blues Rd. 1 loss looks bad, but had the same amount of shots as Richmond. Essendon haven't won a game by more than 10 points (just won 2 at all!) in their last 9 at the MCG (back to end of 2006)... ...tough game to call a winner, but will be happy with the points in this one for sure. [Crap! Only +7.5 @ Lasetters now I look...] I've seen Geelong as much as 1.03 around! Couldn't possibly lay -73 could we??!! Would have been happy to take -173 at the dome, but weather could be a factor...Cats haven't won by more than 70 in their last 10 at home... Pretty sure Collingwood win, but a bit surprised by 1.30...couldn't take the -20 that's for sure. Tiges have won 4 of 6 goig back to 2004...lost one by only 5 as big dogs... ...won by 20 last year as 6.00 'dogs!!...same amount of shots tho, and Deledio kicked 5. Richmond can't seem to score so far, with just 24 shots v. Carlton and 21 v. Roos (2.11)...Pies have had 29 and 30 @ 1.75 against comparable D's I guess. Crows -6.5...The new attacking Crows could kick a monster score here! A shot every 1.75 entries, up agaisnt a Port D that has allowed a shot every 1.67!! Smashed Port in their last meeting last year...won by just 8 but had 28 shots to 15 and 58 I50's to 40!! Have won 7 of last 9 meetings...all by 7 or more...1 loss was as a big dog anyway. Port over-rated after last season's GF appearance...Seems the world is off the Adelaide (and Sydney ) bandwagons, so there's plenty of room for me to lay back and relax! Geeves, pass me the Champagne... So, Swans ML, Crows -6.5 (or better!)... ...was really hoping for that +10, so will need to rethink Blues...and also a likely dip at Doggies at big odds and the over... Off to Darwin for the weekend, so hopefully I'll get to see some games...:unsure

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Ah Rivalry Round (Something I class as whenever both WA and SA teams play each other). 2007- Last year; (Round 18) Dogs and Saints drew. (Round 3) Blues beat Essendon by 3 2006 (Round 21) Demons beat Geelong by 1 2005 (Round 3) Bombers beat Hawks by 2, Richmond beat Dogs by 4, Swans beat Lions by 6, Kangaroos beat Saints by 7, WCE beat Freo by 8 (Round 20) Demons beat Cats by 1, Crows beat Port by 7 That's as far back as my definition of Rivalry round goes. 6 sets of rounds in total (48 games), with 1 draw and a lot of games not going too far from the mark. Using betfair margins can probably get above 50s? (I hardly ever bet AFL margins so don't know). The Bombers Blues has a pretty strong H2H case. 1 draw, a 3pt margin, 4pt margin, 10pt and 11pt margin (From Last 10). Maybe a play for U15.5? Similarly Swans and Lions drew last year, plus a 2pt and 6pt margin (From Last 10). . Likewise Cats and...ahem Demons have a recent draw as well as a 1pt and 6pt margin (From Last 10). Admittedly I have a tendency to overly rely on statistics when punting, though always believed the 'rivalry' factor often diluted the effect form and talent had on the outcome of these games. Thoughts?

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Someone put 500k on the Cats to win the flag! http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2008/04/01/12690_news.html

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. The best bet of the round is Melbourne to win. Complacency factor for cats and 34.00 Sportsbet is value - get on! I was a little worried you'd end up celebrating the unbeaten Dogs '08 premiership in boxers and long beard, Taza. Kangaroos are great overs. Hoping you all don't miss the 34.00 before it goes boys (and honorary boys) - hurry now!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. The free kicks thing was basically just Collingwood whinging supporters, again. Good to see them lose, actually. Something's been lost in all that. Goldsack off in the third and Cloke on one leg was what really got Bris over the line.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 3.

Admittedly I have a tendency to overly rely on statistics when punting' date=' though always believed the 'rivalry' factor often diluted the effect form and talent had on the outcome of these games. Thoughts?[/quote']Yeah, agree with the rivalry dilution theory, Oscar, if it is a genuine rivalry - as with the Derby's. What's your strategy again?. Either U15.5 isn't it?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 3.

Yeah' date=' agree with the rivalry dilution theory, Oscar, if it is a genuine rivalry - as with the Derby's. What's your strategy again?. Either U15.5 isn't it?[/quote'] Yeah, but I just did it for all the games that round (admittedly based mainly on the 2005 results). I did play around with a doubles/trebles staking plan though rather than singles. Having a look around $61 is with the books for a draw so it should offer a little bit of value. As I said last week my knowledge is a bit intermittent - what would you class as the true rivalries? Definitely the SA/WA games, but what else. And what of the Lions v Swans? I suppose if you date it far enough back (Fitzroy/Sth Melb) then that's a rivalry too? Regardless though, it strikes me as the type of game which sort of fits in well with the system (what with the recent draw). Furthermore, I feel the NSW v QLD mentality that exists sort of elevates this fixture to a different kind of level too. Also, might be worth making a note of the true derbies (regardless of whether they are played this round or not) and apply the criteria throughout the year rather than just twice a year? I mean the Bombers and Pies I think its a pretty mammoth derby that's not played during my definition of 'Rivalry Round'?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. They often schedule Bris/Syd during Rugby state of origin but I wouldn't think there's any real rivalry factor. Ess/Carl there usually seems to be, though. That and the Derby's are probably the main three. The Derby's also went four from four last year with my High Scoring Quarter bets, at odds of a little under 4.00 on each.

[-Loki-]

Re: AFL Rd. 3.

The best bet of the round is Melbourne to win. Complacency factor for cats and 34.00 Sportsbet is value - get on! I was a little worried you'd end up celebrating the unbeaten Dogs '08 premiership in boxers and long beard, Taza. Kangaroos are great overs. Hoping you all don't miss the 34.00 before it goes boys (and honorary boys) - hurry now!

This is a joke, right?:\

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. I am fishing a little Loki, but it's not such a big joke. 34.00 is over the realistic odds IMO. Pinnacle very much agree with me. They're more than prepared to back Melbourne at 26.00 as well as another Oz book before they turned it off just then. Sportingbet, RacingOdds, TAB, Lasseters, Eskander all agree with me as well. They want to back Melbourne for plenty at 34.00.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. As "Oscar" (:D) said, the last two trips to Geelong (05, 06), the results have been 1 and 0 points... Having said that, after watching my own $ slowly (very quickly actually) disappearing last week after quarter time, I'll play the good cop/angel on shoulder... ...take Geelong @ 1.04 for all that you possibly can ;) The umpiring last Friday night was horrible...Got to the point where I was physically cringing every time a high ball went into either 50, becasue you just knew they'd pluck a free kick. Anyway, enough been written on it this week without me babbling on... Surprised the Eagles have drifted. I like them the more I look. Tarrat playing like (an honorary) girl is a massive blow for the Dockers. Clearly they can't play McPharlin in 2 places at once...Pavlich spending more time in the middle... ...just looks to me that Lynch and Hansen look far more likely than any combination Freo can send out there.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Just doing some Lucas related research... ...he's only missed 3 games since 2003! They played 3 games without him...v. Port, St. Kilda and @ WC...won just 1, lost 2...BUT... ...lost @ Subi (22 shots), lost v. Saints who were second on the ladder (23 shots)... ...and beat Port who were 3rd on the ladder and riding a 6 game win streak. So, not all that bad. Bah, might just keep my distance I think...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. :lol That's what I thought about the WCE spearheads going into last week, but they've got a whole side playing like honorary girls. I feel the tails very much between the legs after losing Judd and the home truth pasting Worsfold gave them immediately after the Collingwood final. I've marked this game of netball evens and feel Freo are a definite bottom four prospect. I guess we've also gotta remember North were 0-3 and Geelong 2-3 early last year. ;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. You'd think (I do at least!) that in the rain that's forecast (Perth), the Eagles' big advantage in clearances and I50's will get them over the line. Freo's backline is a shambles...a shot every 1.63 entries...Probably won't be that bad on the weekend, but it could be just what the Eagles need to get moving after 2 reasonably good defenses. Having said that, how much do they miss Hunter? I dunno, will probably be content just to tip them, but 2.00 does look kinda big, given the numbers...

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 3.

They often schedule Bris/Syd during Rugby state of origin but I wouldn't think there's any real rivalry factor. Ess/Carl there usually seems to be, though. That and the Derby's are probably the main three. The Derby's also went four from four last year with my High Scoring Quarter bets, at odds of a little under 4.00 on each.

Ok thanks for that Ash :ok Will probably just take those 3 then as my system picks. Will probably include the Lions and Swans U15.5 as just a normal bet, as 4 of the past 5 at the Gabba has gone U15.5 with both teams this year 1/2 and the Lions of course just outside at Subiaco. Will look to compose a list of AFL rivalries/derbies into primary and secondary rivalry factors and give it a bit of a backtest.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Experiencing a phenomenon in betting on the Geelong/Melbourne match. Since Betfair put up their +76.5 market there's punters wanting to back Melb +76.5 @ 1.85 and even, I just notice, someone wants it at 1.80 :eyes. You can still readily get +75.5 at 1.90 or more, which is actually a way better deal, particularly given the voluminous spread. +76.5 @ no less than 1.88 would really be an equivalent deal. Why??? It's a fear thing IMO and it's preventing a lot of punters from doing much better with their punting.

Traded and Available Melb +76.5
Price	To back	To lay	Traded
1.62			$394
1.72	$50
1.73			$12
1.75	$22		$187
1.77	$100
1.79	$680		$40
1.80	$24		$174
1.82			$64
1.89		$110
1.90		$112

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Slim pickings this weekend by the looks with too many 50/50 games and very few games I am confident about. The Bulldogs haven't beaten the Saints at the Dome since 2002, but have started this season well. The Saints have been average in their 2 appearances and will welcome Goddard back. Saints look too big and strong up forward, but might struggle with the Dogs quick ball movement. I'll tip the Saints, but I couldn't care less about the match. The Kangaroos are one of those teams that cause Hawthorn all sorts of problems. They can successfully nullify their gun midfielders and restrict their key forwards. The Hawks have started the season well and were impressive last week. They're playing confident football whilst the Roos did what they had to last week. Hawks should narrowly get home. The Dockers have been reasonable without winning so far, but are carrying too many passengers. I've been surprised how poor their defence has been to date. Fortunately, they face a team with scoring issues and a midfield that is just going. Dockers have shown enough to suggest they can win this game, plus their recent record over the Eagles is solid. It could be a history making night tomorrow night if the Blues fail again and equal their worst losing streak in history. However, they have put a very good team on the park and should be strong enough to overcome the Bombers. The loss of Lucas for Essendon has exposed their forward line badly and with their midfield is clearly inferior to Carlton's, they are going to have to kick a huge score to win. I just don't see Essendon doing it. Brisbane jumped out of the grave last week to upset Collingwood and should continue the roll by beating Sydney. We've now established that the Sydney team that plays at the SCG, and the team that plays anywhere else are vastly different. Interesting to note the total game score has been under 180 points in their last 11 meetings. It'll be close but the Lions should prevail with their superior midfield. Team Strength and Predictor. W.Bulldogs (90%) v St.Kilda (90%), St.Kilda by 22 points. North Melb.(84%) v Hawthorn (79%), Hawthorn by 20 points. West Coast (91%) v Fremantle (77%), Fremantle by 6 points. Essendon (76%) v Carlton (82%), Essendon by 8 points. Brisbane (80%) v Sydney (74%), Sydney by 10 points. Suggested Bets. Fremantle WIN Brisbane MARGIN 1-39 All the best.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Either Team U15.5 for these games: Essendon v Cartlon @ 3.25 [DDF] Sports Acumen {5/10;v,h} West Coast v Fremantle @ 3.10 [DDF] Sportingbet {4/10;v,h} Lions v Swans @ 3.15 [DSS] Sports Acumen {4/5v,4/10h} And A draw at end of any quarter in these games: West Coast v Fremantle @ 11 Sportsbet Essendon v Cartlon @ 11 Sportsbet Decided that the U15.5 bets look so strong that I'll just stake in doubles and a treble, rather than the singles. That's probably asking for it hey!? Qtr by Qtr draw all singles.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Stuck in Darwin with no Fox, so relying on good old dial up to keep in touch with other scores...(Ess/Carl just starting on tv.) Not convinved sportal is all that with AFL tho... ...Pav takes a fantastic contested mark and will line up from 25m out directly on an angle Yes, but what angle exactly?! um...go Dogs! :D

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Are the doggies playing up there this weekend, Taza? :eyes BTW, you need a big one from the Bird tonight!

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. The only reason I'm looking at any Bird these days, Ash, is for...:beer:hope:spank:zzz Nope...given up completely mate. If Josh Hill doesn't win it...Rioli probably will! I need your "tempo footy" speech about now tho...Eddie Betts has the ball on the wing with 30 seconds to go in the 3rd (coach right next to him! :wall)...only one team can score with a long kick... ...but no. A short, keep possession type kick gets picked off and Essendon score. (And have scored in the last 30 seconds of each quarter!! :@ :@) Blues shuold be 2-3 goals better off. This is gunna be close... Poor effort by the Eagles.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Tell me about it! Kangaroos had them covered a couple of times but he just won't learn. Sack him IMO! :@

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Essendon by 16pts :wall:wall That's quite likely to come back and give me nightmares if the Lions play well.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. 17pts in Brisbane, hey Oscar. You'd be pleased.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 3.

17pts in Brisbane' date=' hey Oscar. You'd be pleased.[/quote'] At the very least last night's results showed that I'm probably onto something. Maybe one day in the future that'll translate into a decent win :loon Following up today with the U15.5 in the SA derby @ 3.15 (Sportsbet). How have your quarter bets been going this round Ash? What was it - highest scoring first quarter?

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Looking back at the weekend so far, there is a nice big question mark on the Saints. I'm not so confident of them making the finals after that effort. Three games in a row at the Dome doesn't do you any favours and probably a factor that should be taken into account when punting in the future. The Dogs have wound the clock back 12 months and with Griffen, Cooney and Cross in top form, they'll be hard to beat. They have a nice draw in the next 3 weeks and need to take advantage of it. A terrific game at the Dome yesterday with the Hawks overpowering the Roos. At the end of the day, the Hawks key forwards got the job done and the Roos forwards were disappointing. Brad Sewell is becoming an accomplished midfielder and following in the footsteps of Brett Kirk. The Dockers own the Eagles. Simple as that. Pavlich certainly a big game player and a top 5 player in the league. Brisbane continue to fall short against the Swans. When Brown is blanketed, they find it hard to win. Bradshaw returned to his best form booting 5, but the Lions look a bit off the mark and might fall short in the race to the finals. Essendon did the job over Carlton in an uncontested shootout. Now Carlton's supporters realise that having Judd doesn't equal wins. Not much to talk about today, with the Cats to pound Melbourne and the Pies to win narrowly over the Tigers. It's a perfect day for football in Melbourne today. The Crows are travelling nicely with their more youthful midfield performing above expectations, and I like their more attacking game style. They have the wood over Port only losing twice since 2003. Port need to perform strongly today to get some credibilty back and more importantly keep their season alive. Their defence looks poor and they don't run the ball well out of there at all. Too much depends on the Cornes and the Burgoynes for Port to win, and I don't see them winning today. Team Strength and Predictor. Geelong (83%) v Melbourne (79%), Geelong by 90 points. Richmond (84%) v Collingwood (90%), Collingwood by 18 points. Adelaide (80%) v Port Adelaide (91%), Adelaide by 15 points. Suggested Bet. Adelaide MARGIN 1-24.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 3.

At the very least last night's results showed that I'm probably onto something. Maybe one day in the future that'll translate into a decent win :loon Following up today with the U15.5 in the SA derby @ 3.15 (Sportsbet). How have your quarter bets been going this round Ash? What was it - highest scoring first quarter?

Didn't play the Perth one due to wet weather (and just as well) but 3.90 @ Centrebet on Second Quarter is a great deal for the SA Derby.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Deary deary me, didn't get on the draw at end of any quarter bet for the SA derby...

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Tough day for most.. Hawthorn by 16...not entirely sure what the spread was but anyone on Hawks - were robbed by about 2 seconds as they were running into an open goal whe the horn went... ...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Don't worry, I had something on the 34.00 and most at +72.5 @ 2.00. Those tricky windy conditions were easily worth three or four extra goals to the home team IMO. Melb clearly miss cued on numerous occasions due to it, so who knows what could have been. Kangaroos, Carlton and Port all wanted to do that hold the ball up tempo thing, and surpise, surprise, how'd they go? :wall One thing it tells me, is oppose these teams from now on, either for the win or to cover.