Curragh - 30/3/08

[WoodyTHFC]

3.55 Savethisdanceforme 15 pts SP Will post below to advise this one for the 1000G, not that I know of exact running plans, it does have an entry in it although also does have one in Irish version too and with O'Brien you never know what he is going to do. As for this one it was initially disappointing and had lots of runs without success before modest success at Dundalk but then had a fine run behind Zarkava in Group 1 on last years Arc day when fourth. Then was hugely impressive when won listed race over CD by 9 lengths following its sixth run of the season. Behind was a horse called Maryellen's Spirit who had interesting form lines with Curtain Call, having beaten the colt earlier that season. That was a strong run because Curtain Call by the end of the season won a Group 2, had also run New Approach relatively close and went off only 4/1 when it finished midfield in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy. So the form line looks fairly decent for this undoubtedly improved sort, very similar to Peeping Fawn who ran loads of times, albeit at 3 before becoming a much improved awesome horse. Has shown it stays 1m on that last win and there was a small bit of cut in the ground that day although nothing compared to what there will be tomorrow. Lush Lashes a clear danger so is last years Irish lincoln winner who will love the ground but Savethisdanceforme is very interesting not just tomorrow but all season. 4.30 Tis Mighty 7.5 pts e.w 12/1 bet3 5 places bog Interesting runner, many of these are pretty exposed but this one looks an improver, it handles heavy ground as shown when second on its second ever start, won on third start last season but it was last run that encourages, it was second behind Redstone Dancer when just in front of Many Colors. Well that formline looks strong now, Redstone Dancer was a Group 3 winner by the end of the season and Many Colors was impressive in ireland and Dubai after that run, on its last two Dubai rusn it chased hoem Sun Classique and only just going down, thats the Sun Classique who won the Sheema Classic yesterday. Formlines read well, handles cut and should have strong place chances at least. Crooked Throw 7.5 pts e.w 22/1 bet3 bog On quite a lofty mark now and one which may make it quite tough for this one to win but it has definite place chances especially as it goes with cut and has so many good runs in big field races which clearly it thrives on, last year for one where it was second in this race. Races off higher mark today but should be ready after prep at Dundalk and place claims.

[billy the punter]

Re: Curragh - 30/3/08 4.30 Irish Lincoln As I did with our Lincoln (and the Spring Mile), first of all I'm going to try and discipher the draw. Based on the past six runnings (all the info I can get), if I assign a third of all runners as drawn 'high', 'middle, or 'low' then; 4/6 winners were drawn high or low 71% of placed horses were drawn high or low 75% of the horses in the first six home where drawn high or low however, if I concentrate on the years where the going was heavy (as it will be tomorrow) then my findings are; 100% of winners were drawn high or low (3/3) 92% of placed horses were drawn high or low (11/12) 94% of horses in the first six home were drawn high or low (17/18) Even if I'm mislead by the heavy going factor and it was just coincidental in those three years the six year (all goings) stat still bodes well for those drawn high or low. Although it is usually misleading to use maiden results when looking at draw stats, the two big race maidens on the same card also have the majority of placed horse drawn high or low. On this basis out go the middle drawn horses; Little White Lie, Fremen, Estrela Brage, Sciatin, Dul Ar An Ol, Propinquity, Ginger Princess, Cashel Bay and Alarazi. Onto weight; 6/6 winners have carried 9st or less 83% of placed horses have carried 9st or less (20/24) So we're ideally looking at Akua 'Ba and below. Draw and weight only takes out 12 though, and two of those were in my original short list of three I had when I looked before the draw was made (Alarazi and Celtic Dane). On the plus side, we have lost some fancied runners. This is going to be harder than I thought! Going to have to delve a little deeper. Akua Ba is really consistent, finding the frame 10 times in 15 starts. That improves to 6 from 8 over this distance. He obviously has his quirks though, winning only once at evens, and wearing a tongue tie today - usual cheekpieces left off. Another worry would be that he sometimes goes off in front - a tactic which hasn't been that succesful in this event. A massive price though for one who could easy make the frame. Royal Island hasn't won since his Mark Johnston days over 2 years ago. He was sold for 60k in the late 2005 but wasn't seen for a year after that - obviously suffered an injury. Signs of him coming back into form on his last three runs however on the dirt. If he finds anywhere near his old form then he would be well handicapped here off just 85 - he was 2nd in our Lincoln in 2006 off 99. He will appreciate the straight mile and has won twice on heavy. Green Tobasco is another who has made a good start to his career winning twice in just four starts. He is another who has his quirks perhaps and needs to be produced just right (he took it up and got beaten LTO). Campaigned only over 1m3f so far though and unknown on the ground. Has improvement in his though. Celtic Dane I'm including as his jockey's claim takes him under the prefered weight. He has been tried over trips from 5f to 1m4f in his nine race career so it's difficult to know his ideal trip. I think a tough mile/1m2f would be ideal so this could suit. One of the few likely improvers. Alarazi is a horse I like and it stood out of me on his form last year, but he isn't well drawn and would have to buck the trends carrying 9st 9lb. An interesting runner none the less. Akua 'Ba 25% of stake 23 befair Royal Island 25% of stake 21 betfair Green Tobasco 25% of stake 12.5 betfair Celtic Dane 25% of stake 23 betfair Well, I'll be honest, finacially it isn't going to be my biggest bet of the year. I do think there is value to be had in the big Irish handicaps, I have probably half a dozen bets a year in them, but this does looks very tough. Be interesting to see how the stats above fair as well, hopefully all the placed horses will drawn well again.