Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National)

[bowles10]

Fairyhouse 24 March 2008 "); //-->Beef Or Salmon 43 "); //-->Forget The Past 22 "); //-->Ballistraw 37 "); //-->Alexander Taipan 18 "); //-->Cailin Alainn 18 "); //-->Notre Pere 43 "); //-->Mattock Ranger 22 "); //-->Sir Frederick 162 "); //-->Flintoff 9 "); //-->Preists Leap 18 "); //-->Royal County Star 29 "); //-->Homer Wells 60 "); //-->>Vic Venturi 30 "); //-->Cool Running 169 "); //-->Ballycullen Boy 18 "); //-->Newbay Prop 11 "); //-->Barrow Drive 1 "); //-->Oodachee 33 "); //-->A New Story 13 "); //-->Hear The Echo 88 "); //-->Well Run 26 "); //-->The Outlier 30 "); //-->He´s On His Way 2 "); //-->Coolnahilla 2 "); //-->Ardlea Star 7 Patrick O Brady 10 10-0 N J O´Shea(3) 123 - 200 250

[BillyHills]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National) Hats off to Venetia for having a go, we always used to have a few entered in this one and win it as i can remember. Whats changed?

[Carl]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National) is there any stats for the Irsh National ala UK G.N?

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National) Two E/W against the field for me; NEWBAY PROP~CD winner.Jockey 1/1 on him.Does make the odd mistake in his races but has a fair chance at 25's. A NEW STORY~Former 3rd in this.Ran a cracker at cheltenham and if this isn't coming to soon then has a good e/w chance at 33's

[Carl]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National) Found some :)

important trends since 1997: Breeding Each country breeds differently and it definitely has an effect on a horse. Only French- and Irish-bred horses show up as winners in the data, which I find noteworthy. Weight No horse carrying heavier than 11st 4lbs has won in the sample. Not good news then, for top weight Beef or Salmon. Age No horse aged 11 or more has won, and on the younger side, no five-year-old has won either. Racing Post Rating No horse rated 132 or less has come out on top Official Rating No horse rated less than 115 has won, but on the other end of the scale, horses rated 135 or more don't make the cut either - which probably relates back to the weight again. Prices Horses at the shorter end of the market (less than 9.0) are not good value with no wins. That said, it's not a market for massive outsiders, with all winners priced 34.0 or less. As mentioned, horses can and do break trends, so I'm going to be extra strict and only dismissing horses that fall foul of at least two of the above rules. That cuts the field to about half, and a more manageable level. So what about positive trends? Last time out Half of the sample finished fourth or better last time out. Days since last run All ten winners had run in the previous seven weeks.

[Carl]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National) Narrowed it down to 8 using the stats above: Going to go for : ALEXANDER TAIPAN - Ruby Walsh @ 12/1 Course winner 10pts win WELL RUN - Carberry @ 14/1 anther C winner but he's out of the Handicap 5pts E/W

jumped well and stayed the 3m4f trip in fine style when landing the Ulster National

[fintron]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National) I've never seen this site before chaps, but it gives the details of the winners of the Irish national over the last ten years... http://www.easyodds.com/previews/Irish-National-Trends/news-28457.html This is taken from that site.... Irish Grand National (Handicap Chase) 3m5f - Fairyhouse

Year	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Age	Weight	Country	Previous Run	RPR	Form	Winning Odds
2007	Butler’s Cabin	J O’Neill	AP McCoy	7	10-4	UK	1st Chelt	150+	301	14/1
2006	Point Barrow	P Hughes	PA Carberry	8	10-8	Ire	6th Navan	146+	006	20/1
2005	Numbersixvalverde	M Brassil	R Walsh	9	10-1	Ire	3rd Navan	139	513	9/1
2004	Granit D’Estruval	F Murphy	B Harding	10	10-0	UK	4th Newc	137	034	33/1
2003	Timbera	D Hughes	J Culloty	9	10-12	Ire	4th Cork	141	024	11/1
2002	The Bunny Boiler	N Meade	R Geraghty	8	9-9	Ire	1st Utto	145+	2F1	12/1
2001	ABANDONED
2000	Commanche Court	T Walsh	R Walsh	7	11-4	Ire	BD Chelt	164+	32BD	14/1
1999	Glebe Lad	M O’Brien	T Rudd	7	10-0	Ire	10th Curr	133	F30	8/1 cfav
1998	Bobbyjo	T Carberry	P Carberry	8	11-3	Ire	9th Leop	153	749	8/1
1997	Mudahim	Mrs J Pitman	J Titley	11	10-3	UK	6th Chelt	147	216	13/2

So the key patterns that have emerged (also taken from that site): 8/10 - Aged 7,8 or 9 years-old 8/10 - Carried 10-12 OR LESS 7/10 - Trained in Ireland 6/10 - Returned at double-figure odds 3/10 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out 2/10 - Won their previous race 1/10 - Won by the favourite As others have stated above, using the weight trend discounts Beef or Salmon, Forget the Past and Ballistraw. Barrow Drive, A New Story, The Outlier, Homer Wells, Coolnahilla and Ardlea Star are also eliminated as they don't fit into the 7-9 age category. As only 1/10 were only won by the fav, and bearing in mind Tony Martin's Royal County Star is a short 7/2, that one is discounted too. That narrows the field down to a more manageable 16 runners. Not too sure if this is a trend I really want to follow, but taking out all of the previous race winners narrows takes out only Cailin Alainn, and Well Run - two of the fancied horses for this according to the market. That leaves the following (best odds available through Oddschecer): Alexander Taipan 12/1 Notre Pere 14/1 Mattock Ranger 20/1 Sir Frederick 25/1 Flintoff 40/1 Priests Leap 10/1 Vic Venturi 33/1 Cool Running 25/1 Pomme Tiepy NR Ballycullen Boy 20/1 Newbay Prop 25/1 Oodachee 40/1 Hear the Echo 40/1 He's on his Way 200/1 Still need to find some way of narrowing the field down further, so I'm gonna use one of the oldest tricks in the book and go by jockey. Ruby Walsh has won this race twice in the past 10 years so ciould have what it takes to bag the hat trick of Irish national wins. His horse, Alexander Taipan, fits the age, weight and 'exclude favourite or LTO winner' trends. Hails from the respected Willy Mullins yard and although was beaten 1.25 l by Cailin Aillinn at Thurles latest, is weight to reverse those placings - he gave 5lbs that day and only concedes 2lbs today. Not sure what the offical going is today, but any cut will not bother this horse as it is proven over Heavy going. Mullins has this to say on its chances on Sportinglife..."Alexander Taipan has shown he's an out-and-out stayer, he's not the slowest horse but he stays and Ruby (Walsh) will be huge help. "He gets the best out of him, Ruby's win on him at Punchestown last year was for me his ride of the year. He dragged him home. "A National is a National, there's a lot of jumping in the last six furlongs here. It's probably not my fella's forte, but he's nicely treated at the weights and we have the right man on board." With the favs faring so badly in his race, Alexander Taipan looks a decent bit of value at 12/1 (Bet 365) even if it isn't proven over the distance.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National) The form of the Noel Meade yard is awfull, but I fancy Well Run to run well today. The horse has 3 wins in last 4 starts and the other try was an unseated rider. Stayed the 3m4f lto very well and looks to be improving. Course winnner and will definitely like the going. 14/1 e/w looks a good price. :ok

[Woodie]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National) This not on bbc? I got no atr access today!

[alexmac]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National) No mate,not on the BBC.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National) 2.40 Sonnyandjoe 3.4 15 pts betf Last two runs has looked exposed but at this level is much more of a player and proved that prior to the last two wins with several good performances in victory and defeat. Probably slightly better on a sounder surface so the likely drying ground would be in this ones favour although can go with some cut, claimer has got on well with it before. 3.10 Robin Du Bois 5/2 bet3 bog 15 pts One of those Martin 'plots' at Chelt when to me never seemed to be in the race, this is a bg drop back in trip and possibly may well suit, certainly last year when 4 it was more a 2 miler than a 3 miler I would have suggested, the four year old form is decent, good runs in a grade 2 for example, Ruby on board for Martin which is always of some interest. 3.55 Ballycullen Boy 18/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w 5 places Just out of the handicapand had a decent prep for this when second in a grade 2 hurdle race behind Cooldine who won again yesterday, has shown can handle big fields such as in the Kerry National when second this season and even the effort behind Mossbank was fair enough early in the season, a performance of that level puts it in contention today. Mattock Ranger 25/1 pp 7.5 pts e.w 5 places Possibly meade's second string but another one who shows lots of stamina and did that in the Cork GN early on in the season when winning, disappointed straight after that but bounced back to some form when staying on lto on slightly better ground. Not out of this even though the second string and probably more reliable than Meade's first string who does not have the experience of this one. A New Story 33/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w 5 places Out of the handicap and not really on who has pounds in hand but what this one does have is lots of experience of these types of races, placed in the race before, dour stayer and placed lto at Chelt in the x country, a race that can throw up the odd GN winner although this one is probably more a place chance. 4.30 Newton Bridge 16/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Tough handicap hurdle but this is one for its GN winning trainer who has tried chasing and hurdles with mixed success but on some of its hurdle runs put it in with a fair chance and indicate it might not be too badly treated, for example win at Chelt over Peacock who has loads of solid handicap runs this year, if teh ground dries its chance improves.

[Billboard]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National)

Irish National Fairyhouse 24/3 I'm liking Well Run in this. Looking at the age trends - Age - One 10 year old winner, no older than 10 & no younger than 5. 7 year olds have the best record. Nothing with a huge rating has won in recent years by the looks of things, no repeat trainer form to follow. He's won on the ground,over the trip and on the course. 20's on BF as it stands today.....I'm in for €30. Cheers :hope __________________ Flat rules Last edited by Billboard : 21-03-2008 at 16:02. Reason: typo

I put this up a few days ago, I'm still liking my selection.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National) two i like, both EW PRIESTS LEAP FORGET THE PAST

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Fairyhouse 24/03 (Irish Grand National)

Two E/W against the field for me; NEWBAY PROP~CD winner.Jockey 1/1 on him.Does make the odd mistake in his races but has a fair chance at 25's. A NEW STORY~Former 3rd in this.Ran a cracker at cheltenham and if this isn't coming to soon then has a good e/w chance at 33's

4th and 5th ...a little bit better.