turnlux Posted March 17, 2008 Share Posted March 17, 2008 This is a system i want to paper trade based on backing or laying football teams depending on their league position. Have done no back testing at all hence the paper trading but just want to see if there is any mileage in it. Basically if the higher position league side is at home then we back, if the away side is the higher position side then we lay the home side. Is that clear?? If not you'll see as we go along. I will use mainly top leagues around europe. Bets will be made with betfair the morning of the games and the start bank will be 100 units (Paper trade only). Each bet will be level stakes of 10 points. Bets for tomorrow:- Wolves(11) v Scunthorpe(24) Back wolves @ 1.72 with 10pts Colchester(24) v Hull(5) Lay Colchester @ 3.3 with 4.35pts Bristol Rovers(16) v Swansea(1) Lay Bristol Rovers @ 3.3 with 4.35pts Huddersfield(15) v Brighton(9) Lay Huddersfield @ 2.68 with 5.95pts We'll see how this goes, not sure what to expect and what results we might get but hopefully the trend will continue.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bunnychaser Posted March 17, 2008 Share Posted March 17, 2008 Re: League Positions good luck with this one turnlux nice simple and i will be following how do you get to the points to bet ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 17, 2008 Share Posted March 17, 2008 Re: League Positions how do you get to the points to bet ? Bunnychaser, I think you will find that, for the lay bets, the figure quoted by Turnlux is the backers stake that you are laying... your liability will be 10.00 units. Anyway, good luck, Turnlux.... I hope it turns out well :ok.... it´s simplicity will teach us statistics freaks a lesson or two :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bunnychaser Posted March 17, 2008 Share Posted March 17, 2008 Re: League Positions dohhh thanks just got a free £5 on betfred havnt been there since 2006 so ime going to have a accu with them so dont feel bad if it dont work hasnt cost me anything come onnnnnnnnnn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: League Positions Thanx Guys for the interest:ok No pressure then bunnychaser!!:lol I'm a big believer in stats myself grex, you only have to look at that fulham v everton game on sunday as a good example, So maybe somewhere along the line stats could maybe help narrow the selections down. This is just a little trend i noticed while watching livescores one day. As i say it's not based on any think ground breaking as you can see. But as grex said hopefully it's simplicity will be key. Another idea i did intially toy with was backing the lower league positioned side when playing at home if they were say within 5 places of the away side. So for eg on tonights games i might have done this:- Brescia(6) v Lecce(5) Back Brescia instead of laying them. This is not a system bet, just an example. Maybe worth monitoring over time and seeing if that works better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: League Positions dustys aways had similar simple beginnings (and now it's fathered the laying thread me and dusty have in the gloryhunt...which is the best backtested system i have EVER come across....no pressure :tongue2), and it will be interesting to see how this one goes. One day i'll backtest this one (back to 6th jan...since that's when my complex stats archiving started).....until then - i wish you the best of luck! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: League Positions so just to clarify (for when i DO backtest this for you)...lay the home side if away higher in LEAGUE and back home side if they are higher? Nothing more than that...like number of league positions between or anything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: League Positions Thanks for the interest lunatism:ok I have seen your thread,it makes interesting reading, long may it continue. You've hit the nail on the head with your summary. It's as simple as that. May take the difference in league positions in to account at some point in the future but just for now we will keep it simple. Be interested to see what your results show as think there could be potential in this but not quite sure. As we speak it's looking like a 50% strike rate at the mo. Hopefully the 2nd halves will change a few more in our favour.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: League Positions A few better performances and things are looking promising now.Come on boys hold on!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: League Positions :spank:spankXscores were showing wolves at 1-1!! But now it's back to 0-1. Talk about getting my hopes up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted March 18, 2008 Author Share Posted March 18, 2008 Re: League Positions Tonights results:- Wolves(11) v Scunthorpe(24):loon WON 2-1 Back wolves @ 1.72 with 10pts Colchester(24) v Hull(5):loon WON 1-3 Lay Colchester @ 3.3 with 4.35pts Bristol Rovers(16) v Swansea(1):loon WON 0-2 Lay Bristol Rovers @ 3.3 with 4.35pts Huddersfield(15) v Brighton(9):@ LOST 2-1 Lay Huddersfield @ 2.68 with 5.95pts Start Bank:100 pts Current Bank:105.11pts Bets:4 Wins:3 Losses:1 S/R:75% Sorry bunnychaser:$ we missed the four-fold by 1 game!! I'm pleased with the first results, better than i expected. Nice to start with a profit. Hopefully i can continue this run into tomorrow. Okay then games for tomorrow:- Tottenham Hotspur(11) v Chelsea(3) Lay Spurs @ 4.2 with 3.13pts AC Milan(5) v Sampdoria(6) Back Milan at 1.51 with 10pts Cagliari(20) v Atalanta(8) Lay Cagliari @ 2.52 with 6.41pts Torino(13) v Udinese(7) Lay Torino @ 2.56 with 6.41pts Hopefully this won't go down the pan. May have to introduce some filters to narrow the picks down. Could be minimum or maximum odds, maybe some h2h stats to possibly identify some value. Any suggestions would be a great help:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Re: League Positions right...i almost have backtested data at hand - not all plain sailing, you'll have to find the odds for these - but probably shouldn't be too hard if you get them from football-data.co.uk. i just need you to tell me all the leagues that you are looking at. because i have a list of ALL betfair leagues, but i guess you aren't interested in all of them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Re: League Positions in case you wondered, overall stats look like this: back: 82% from 1763 games lay: 64% from 1797 games i tried it with form position, but it is "worse", so apart from filtering out unwanted leagues, what other filters might you introduce? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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