bigs Posted February 21, 2008 Share Posted February 21, 2008 Southwell 14:45 Soba Jones LAY Very Good Horse, I have it in my notebook since I tipped him as my NAP here on 10th of Jan, and it went 6th on that race. But it stayed on as an horse to follow! :) but now... well It won LTO with 8-8 in weights, but for this race it is 9-13... I know this is its favourite track but 1st-5lbs is a bit too much I think. Will be an even race, with 4 of them with chances, but the burden Soba has to carry pushes me away from it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigs Posted February 22, 2008 Author Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Southwell - Friday 22nd Feb Southwell 15:55 - Oberlin WIN A couple of days ago, I was looking at a card I cant remember which now, and I saw 2 horses that have lost to rapidity in the previous race, and I thought to myself, "these 2 are going to be in the top 3 for sure" , they were 1st and 2nd that race. This time it's oberlin, It lost to rapidity by JUST 3,5lengths, so has got to be a good horse! It's a maiden, company is obviously not the best, and I reckon its effort against rapidity :) So if it is good enough to chase rapidity, it's good enough to win this maiden! :) Another one I expect to win with plenty in hand! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Southwell - Friday 22nd Feb 1.40 Sweet World @10/1 with BetFred:hope Dropping down in trip. With an DI of 1.8 this suggest the horse should be suited to the shorter trip of today. Weaken in previous outings over 10-12 furlongs. Could spring a surprise today 2.25 Nautical @4.2 on Betfair On my assesment of the times clocked in various races on this track compared to the other runners should be priced about 3.4/3.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Southwell - Friday 22nd Feb 2.10 - My Friend Fritz 3/1 2.45 - Soba Jones 13/8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigs Posted February 22, 2008 Author Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Southwell - Friday 22nd Feb 2.10 - My Friend Fritz 3/1 2.45 - Soba Jones 13/8 you could gives us some words on why you select them ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falbrav Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Southwell - Friday 22nd Feb Hucking Heat 4.30 Southwell. LAY. (Racing Post sp 5/2) A small field could make this tactical, and that may not suit this fella. The weights demand things need to drop just right fo him, so with the other runners all having chances, the value call is to lay and not play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verisimilitude Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Southwell - Friday 22nd Feb wrong thread. sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PL_Crewman Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnHenderson Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Southwell - Friday 22nd Feb Silver Hotspur looks to me to have a good chance of winning again in the 5.00. He is carrying a 6lb penalty and running over 8f rather than 7f, but he is down in class and to my eye shaped as if a further furlong would not be an impediment. The lightly raced Babieca, returning after 573 days off course, is something of an unknown factor, but will have to be good and fit to win first time out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Southwell - Friday 22nd Feb you could gives us some words on why you select them ;) I have a system for picking horses and these two were the only two on the Southwell card that fit the bill. All of my selections I post on this site meet my criteria which are... 1) Must have a CD win in its last three runs 2) that CD win must have come at the same class as the race in question 3) If any race throws up multiple horses fitting the bill then I ignore the race usually or back all of them (which is what I did with Blue Empire, Anduril and Sparky Vixen here yesterday). I ingore the type of race the CD win came in even if it is a seller-winning-horse trying his luck at a handicap and I ignore adjustments in weight and handicap rating. I haven't decided yet whether to include horses stepping up in class as Dubai Ace did this the other day and let me down whilst Silver Hotsput stepped up in class a few days ago and still won. I have been acheiving modest profit over the past week, but Tuesday at Southwell was the best day for me. All 4 of the horses I picked out won (5 including Silver Hotspur) although I didn't back them all. I may give up on this strategy eventually but for the time being i'm happy with it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Southwell - Friday 22nd Feb 1.40 Sweet World @10/1 with BetFred:hope Dropping down in trip. With an DI of 1.8 this suggest the horse should be suited to the shorter trip of today. Weaken in previous outings over 10-12 furlongs. Could spring a surprise today 2.25 Nautical @4.2 on Betfair On my assesment of the times clocked in various races on this track compared to the other runners should be priced about 3.4/3.5 Both 2nd but the place section of my bets ensured a small profit on the day. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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