ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007

[LilEagle]

Event	Rafael Nadal - Richard Gasquet
Selection	Richard Gasquet
Strength	10/10
Date	11/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 3.70 (Back)
Reasoning	Rafael Nadal has been injured since Thursday and havent been able to give 100% on practice so the odds look great to oppose Nadal even when the opponent is a choker like Gasquet.

Event	Novak Djokovic - David Ferrer
Selection	David Ferrer
Strength	10/10
Date	11/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 3.63 (Back)
Reasoning	Im not sure how well Djokovic is prepared since his recent foot injury but unless he's 100% fit and ready for fight for his Tennis Masters Cups debut he could face some hard troubles against Ferrer and his suberp returns.

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 good call on Ferrer Mr. Duck. The red group looks like a betting non-event with Federer holding a combined 32-1 record over his 3 opponents who are all out of form and/or injured.

[LilEagle]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 haha...yeah...I wouldnt mind a great performance from Federer tomorrow.

Event	Nikolay Davydenko - Andy Roddick
Selection	Andy Roddick
Strength	10/10
Date	12/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 1.67 (Back)
Reasoning	Davydenko is haunted by his rather poor performances lately with crappy serve and tons of double faults and all journalist keep constantly asking his about alleged tanking in his matches. With so much going around Davydenkos head Im not confident that he's 100% concentrated this week on tennis.

Event	Roger Federer - Fernando Gonzalez
Selection	Roger Federer -5 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	12/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	>10bet @ 1.95 (Back)
Reasoning	Fernando Gonzalez had a pretty poor year after the final in Australian Open and went down to Federer in straight sets even though he was playing dream tennis. Federer is leading the h2h 10-0 and 25-2 in sets and is prepared and motivated to defend his title here in the Masters Cup as always. Only way Federer should fail this handicap is if he decides not to give 100%.

Event	M. Knowles / Nestor - Clement /Llodra
Selection	Clement /Llodra
Strength	10/10
Date	12/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.94 (Back)
Reasoning	Knowles / Nestor split after US Open and but team up again for one last time. I wonder if they gonna put up a good performance again after such a long time apart but they will surely have troubles against Clement / Llodra indoors. Clement / Llodra lead the h2h 3-0

Event	Aspelin / J. Knowles - Dlouhy / Vizner
Selection	Aspelin / J. Knowles
Strength	10/10
Date	12/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.86 (Back)
Reasoning	Aspelin / J. Knowles are a pretty new team, they paired up this spring but had a great run with the win at US Open as their biggest archievement. The win in the final was actually over their opponents today and even though Dlouhy / Vizner is looking for revenge Im comfident Aspelin / J. Knowles can repeat their earlier win against their opponents.

[trusting1]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 Disagree with you Duck. No time for proper reasoning as late for work, sorry guys but my pick for todays is Davydenko to beat Roddick. Very likely for many reasons.Get on.

[christiano]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 You are working all the time trusting1...

[LilEagle]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007

Event	Djokovic - Gasquet
Selection	Gasquet
Strength	10/10
Date	13/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Djokovic showed in his match vs Ferrer that he's nobody to trust at all this week and I cant resist opposing him once again even though Gasquet showed what a great choker he is at the odds.

Event	Rafael Nadal - David Ferrer
Selection	David Ferrer
Strength	10/10
Date	13/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.43 (Back)
Reasoning	David Ferrer has beaten Nadal before and I cant see why he should beat him again if he can repeat same performance as he did as Djokovic. Nadal was in early trouble against Gasquet but Gasquet had to choke himself to a loss like always with double fault on important points etc. Nadal will face a much harder test today.

[stereoman]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 Top tipping, DD! :clap The layers have probably had a lot of fun in-running over the past 48 hours.

[Amdtje]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007

Event	Djokovic - Gasquet
Selection	Gasquet
Strength	10/10
Date	13/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Djokovic showed in his match vs Ferrer that he's nobody to trust at all this week and I cant resist opposing him once again even though Gasquet showed what a great choker he is at the odds.

Event	Rafael Nadal - David Ferrer
Selection	David Ferrer
Strength	10/10
Date	13/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.43 (Back)
Reasoning	David Ferrer has beaten Nadal before and I cant see why he should beat him again if he can repeat same performance as he did as Djokovic. Nadal was in early trouble against Gasquet but Gasquet had to choke himself to a loss like always with double fault on important points etc. Nadal will face a much harder test today.

:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap Nice:notworthy:notworthy It sucked i didnt followed your advice and played those 2 :s

[LilEagle]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007

Event	Andy Roddick vs Fernando Gonzalez
Selection	Fernando Gonzalez
Strength	10/10
Date	14/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.25 (Back)
Reasoning	Fernando Gonzalez will be full of confidence thanx to his suprise win over Federer and should play very comfortably tomorrow since Roddick is the favorite coming into this match. Roddick is the more stable player of them both so he has a slight advantage, but only a slight and if he cant keep blastin them aces he will have hard time against Gonzalez and his ability to hit winners from all over the court.

[sanjeev_28]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007

Event	Andy Roddick vs Fernando Gonzalez
Selection	Fernando Gonzalez
Strength	10/10
Date	14/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.25 (Back)
Reasoning	Fernando Gonzalez will be full of confidence thanx to his suprise win over Federer and should play very comfortably tomorrow since Roddick is the favorite coming into this match. Roddick is the more stable player of them both so he has a slight advantage, but only a slight and if he cant keep blastin them aces he will have hard time against Gonzalez and his ability to hit winners from all over the court.

what ever you juss stated mate sounds very true i would also bank on gonzalez but than again both of them are very un-predictable players you never know wat may happen. i still would not give a 10/10 bet i would give it a 5/10 than again everyone has their own point of view.

[LilEagle]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 I give all my bets 10/10....

[Tipping Pounds]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 Tip No.12 Hanley / Ullyett - Damm / Paes Tennis: China, ATP Masters Cup Doubles Shanghai 2007 (15/11/07 09:00 GMT - 13:00) Tip: Damm / Paes (Moneylines) Line Available on Betfair.com - Back 2.00 / Lay 2.02 / Average 2.01 Stake: 10% / Bank Damm & Paes are one of the best couple of the ATP Double Tour, in the last two years they have reached always good results and they are a complementary couple with Martin Damm that has sure more talent and especially into the net he can make the difference, instead Paes is the player most explosive and on the returns he is sure one of the best players of the ATP double circuit. On this masters they are playing to their best and in my opinion today they are the fav in order to close the round robin to the first place, that is important for some things, as money of course, but also motivations and some more. Ulleyett/Hanley are another experienced couple, two wonderful players that in the years have sure obtained good results and especially Hanley is a player of top level, that has the best backhand return of the circuit and also into net as all the Australians is competitive, Ullyett doen't seem a sportman seen the phisical status, but he has for sure a great hand and then talent, even if in my opinion of the four players on the court he is the player of less value regarding the other three. There is no more to analyze in this match, as most of the doubles, but I believe that Paes and Damm are playing such great, they are totheir top and I see them as fav of this match, for this reason I prefer to choose them. Line: Hanley / Ullyett - Damm / Paes 1.95 - 2.05 Value: Hanley / Ullyett - Damm / Paes 2.25 - 1.80 Tipping-£-Pounds

[LilEagle]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007

Event	Nikolay Davydenko v Fernando Gonzalez
Selection	Fernando Gonzalez
Strength	10/10
Date	16/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.69 (Back)
Reasoning	Nikolay Davydenko has no chance to progress while Gonza still has a small shot. Gonza looked really poor againt Roddick but will have much bigger chances to break Davys serve and motivational factor will be big here.

Event	Roger Federer - Andy Roddick
Selection	Under 23.5 Games
Strength	10/10
Date	16/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betway @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning	Roddick will probably give Federer a good fight in the first set like always, but once he loses the first set (if) it will probably be over pretty quick.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 RODDICK v Ferrer @ 2.74 Pinnacle 3pts Very interesting match, especially given the form that Ferrer has been in, and looks like being a public play on Ferrer. First of all, look at the H2H - 2-2, 1-1 this year with Ferrer winning the last meeting in Cincinatti. The most important thing here is Roddicks serve - in particular his second serve - as if he can hold easily he always has a good chance. Looking deeper into the two H2H's this year, in the first (Roddick won) he served a pretty poor 55% first serve (year average 65%) and won 55% points behind his second serve (year average 57%). In the second meeting (Ferrer won), Roddick actually served quite a bit better, getting 62% first serve in and winning 63% behind second serves. This is encouraging as he managed to be more successful behind his second serve than he has done this year which is excellent considering Ferrers returns. The story of that match was that Ferrer created one break point and managed to take it, and played a great tie break. I remember watching that match, and Ferrer played great, definately up to the level he has shown this week, and Roddick was fairly average. This week, Ferrer came in as an outsider, but has been excellent and is the form player starting the knock-out stages. However, this is a fairly new experience for him, and it could argued that the pressure will be a big hinderance. Conversely, Roddick has been in this situation many times, and aside from playing Federer, he tends to deal witht he pressure pretty well. I'm not reading anything into his poor performance and loss to Federer - after the Gonzalez result it was a dead rubber for him and well, he's just not going to beat Federer is he?;) Roddick needs to approach this match in the same way he did the one against Davydenko, where I thought he played very well, then he has a good chance. Ferrer is the "buzz" of the tournament right now, and after three spectacular performances he'll have a lot of support in the markets, however, I still think these prices should be closer together - and I think the bookies prices of around 2.37 are closer to the fair price.

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 welcome back mate. Agree Roddick is overpriced but I'm staying away from betting on this tournament because I've seen very little of it.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 NADAL v Federer @ 4.33 Sportingbet 2pts What can you say about this match up? No need to go into technicalities, just watch a tape. The only facet of the H2H I care about today is the Wimbledon final - Nadal had Federer by the balls before he injured his knee and that contest shows Nadals continued improvement on quicker surfaces. Of course, he's struggled since then, but Nadal is never going to be good on cement, and from what I've seen this week he is suited to this court. What can we say about this week? Federer has lost, in a match where Gonzalez played extremely well, but at his best Federer would still have won, especially after being a set up - same thing happened against Nalbandian not too long ago. I'm also thinking of when he lost serve at 5-3 against Davydenko, and when losing a set - and his serve - against Karlovic in Paris. Bottom line, he just isn't serving very well at the moment. It's not showing up too much in the stats, but from watching his matches it's definately apparent. He's also making a few more UE's as usual, and the combination makes him vunerable. Nadal has been OK this week. I thought Gasquet was excellent against him, and it was impressive how he came through that match. Then I'm not sure what to think about the Ferrer match, as he was close to winning at points in the second set, but ultimately it was a poor loss against a player who may have his number:eek. But then I was impressed against Djokovic - who was also playing better - and I think he's carrying good momentum into this. Also he seems very "pumped" this week, always a good sign, and he's had quite a few matches recently without visible problems with his knees which is a major plus. 4.33 is a very nice price, and I'd also be willing to take the 4.00 that is widely available.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007

welcome back mate. Agree Roddick is overpriced but I'm staying away from betting on this tournament because I've seen very little of it.

Cheers mate:ok

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007

NADAL v Federer @ 4.33 Sportingbet 2pts What can you say about this match up? No need to go into technicalities, just watch a tape. The only facet of the H2H I care about today is the Wimbledon final - Nadal had Federer by the balls before he injured his knee and that contest shows Nadals continued improvement on quicker surfaces. Of course, he's struggled since then, but Nadal is never going to be good on cement, and from what I've seen this week he is suited to this court. What can we say about this week? Federer has lost, in a match where Gonzalez played extremely well, but at his best Federer would still have won, especially after being a set up - same thing happened against Nalbandian not too long ago. I'm also thinking of when he lost serve at 5-3 against Davydenko, and when losing a set - and his serve - against Karlovic in Paris. Bottom line, he just isn't serving very well at the moment. It's not showing up too much in the stats, but from watching his matches it's definately apparent. He's also making a few more UE's as usual, and the combination makes him vunerable. Nadal has been OK this week. I thought Gasquet was excellent against him, and it was impressive how he came through that match. Then I'm not sure what to think about the Ferrer match, as he was close to winning at points in the second set, but ultimately it was a poor loss against a player who may have his number:eek. But then I was impressed against Djokovic - who was also playing better - and I think he's carrying good momentum into this. Also he seems very "pumped" this week, always a good sign, and he's had quite a few matches recently without visible problems with his knees which is a major plus. 4.33 is a very nice price, and I'd also be willing to take the 4.00 that is widely available.

:welcome back, I hope all is well. :ok

[meatman]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 :welcome back Mr I, long time no see mate Hope your doing alright these days and GL with those bets :ok

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007

:welcome back' date=' I hope all is well. :ok[/quote'] Thank you guys:ok

[davidmphill]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 Great to have you posting again Chris. Best of luck with these and looking forward to your posts in the New Year.

[LilEagle]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 Welcome back Mr. I but I've to say I disagree with you... Im playing a double with Ferrer and Federer - 1.98 @ Pinnacle

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007

Welcome back Mr. I but I've to say I disagree with you... Im playing a double with Ferrer and Federer - 1.98 @ Pinnacle

Looks like you've got the first half mate:ok. At least Roddick has just held twice in a row:rollin

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 Much better serving performance today from Federer. Quite disappointed with Nadal, seemed to not have much fight in the second set. Could have been different if Nadal had taken a break point in the first set, but, in the end Fed was too good. Good day for favourite double backers:ok

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 Not sure what to make of this final, as both were exceptional in the semis. If Federer serves the way he did against Nadal then he will definately win, in 3 or 4 sets. If he doesn't, and serves at around 65% first serves then Ferrer has a BIG chance. I was really impressed with Ferrer today, apart from a few rogue double faults he was flawless. I think he can handle the pressure of the final, as he's back to being a big underdog. H2H is 7-0 to Federer but Ferrer's performances have been getting better in the past couple of years. In the last meeting in Hamburg, Ferrer took a set and it was a very close match. Also there only match on carpet, in Basle last year was close, Federer coming through 6-3 7-6 (16-14). That match showed Ferrer can get close to Federer on a quickish surface. Also I don't think all those matches and losses mean too much at the moment, as Ferrer has found a new level and is playing like the second best player in the world (behind David Nalbandian).

One angle I do like in this match is Ferrer to start the better - a lot of times it takes Fed a little while to get his timing going, and in a best of 5 match he can try to swing through it and doesn't mind making a few errors early. Ferrer should start solidly, and I fancy him to take the 1st set. Best way of playing this I think is:

FEDERER LOSE 1ST SET AND WIN MATCH @ 6.00 Ladbrokes 2pts

The way I see it, best price for Ferrer to win 1st set is 3.8 and I think Federer would be around 1.5 if this happens (depending on how it goes down). 3.8 x 1.5 = 5.7 so 6.00 is a pretty decent price.

Also going for a couple of other plays, all following the train of thought that I expect Ferrer to start well and keep this close:

TIE BREAK IN THE MATCH @ 2.5 Boylesports 2pts

FERRER TO BREAK SERVE FIRST @ 2.87 Betfred 2pts

LAY FEDERER 3-0 @ 2.36 Betfair risk 5pts

[LilEagle]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 Disagree again...;)

Event	Roger Federer - David Ferrer
Selection	Under 36 Games
Strength	10/10
Date	18/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.06 (Back)
Reasoning	David Ferrer has benn playing excellent tennis but I wonder how well he's gonna deal with the pressure today specially with Federer being all over his weak serve.

[mikho]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 Great end of the season Donald. Hope this run continues next year ;)

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Masters Cup Shanghai 2007 Nice one Donald:clap. Guess I missed all the upsets earlier in the week:wall