BNP Paris Masters

[Morris]

Last tournament of the season, and the last chance for most to get into the end of season Shangai competition.

BNP Paribas Masters Paris, France October 28-November 4, 2007 €2,082,500 / 48 Draw Carpet - Indoor
Main Draw Singles Order of Play	Main Draw Doubles Qualifying Singles Draw

I havent got no real tournament picks this time around, I think it will be a very tough masters which could throw up a few surprises seeing as different people are looking to achieve different things and some looking to do nothing but play out the season. Only two spaces left now at the Masters cup, so all in with a chance will be eager to perform. 1. Federer, Roger (SUI) 1241 - Clinched berth 2. Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 1037 - Clinched berth 3. Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 893 - Clinched berth 4. Davydenko, Nikolay (RUS) 530 - Clinched berth 5. Roddick, Andy (USA) 466 - Clinched berth 6. Ferrer, David (ESP) 425 -Unofficially clinched berth (Lost 1st Rd Basel) 7. Gonzalez, Fernando (CHI) 380 - On the verge (Lost quarter final Basel - added 12 pts) 8. Haas, Tommy (GER) 329 - Controls own fate (Withdrew from Lyon) 9. Robredo, Tommy (ESP) 328 - Controls own fate (Lost 1st round Lyon) 10. Blake, James (USA) 327 - Controls own fate (Lost 2nd Rd Basel) 11. Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 322 - Controls own fate (Lost quarter final Basel - added 4pts) 12. Gasquet, Richard (FRA) 321 - Controls own fate (Lost in 2nd Rd Lyon) 13. Moya, Carlos (ESP) 316 - Needs big Paris Masters (Taking week off) 14. Ljubicic, Ivan (CRO) 315 - Controls own fate (Lost quarter finals Lyon) 15. Murray, Andy (GBR) 311 - Controls own fate (Playing final St Petersburg - added 30pts) 16. Canas, Guillermo (ARG) 299 - Controls own fate (Lost 2nd Rd Basel - added 4pts) 17. Youzhny, Mikhail (RUS) 289 - Needs some help (Lost semi final St Petersburg - added 7pts) 18. Chela, Juan Ignacio (ARG) 284 - Needs some help (Lost 1st Rd Basel) 19. Baghdatis, Marcos (CYP) 275 - Needs some help (Lost semi final Basel - added 10pts) 20. Hewitt, Lleyton (AUS) 273 - Out of contention (Season over) 21. Ferrero, Juan Carlos (ESP) 271 - Needs some help (Taking week off) 22. Monaco, Juan (ARG) 269 - Needs a miracle (Lost 2nd Rd Lyon) 23. Karlovic, Ivo (CRO) 265 - Needs a miracle (Lost semi final Basel - added 14pts) 24. Mathieu, Paul-Henri (FRA) 263 - Needs a miracle (Lost quarter final Basel - added 4pts) 24. Nalbandian, David (ARG) 255 - Needs a miracle (Lost 1st Rd Basel

[Morris]

Re: BNP Paris Masters Actually just the one tournament bet for me Carlos Moya to win the Paris Masters E/W (2 at 1/3)- 200/1 @ Sportingbet Moya was lying in a terrific spot to clinch a place at the Shanghai event, but decided to take last week off for some strange reason. This now means he needs a good Masters to bring himself back into contention and I think if he didnt believe in himself then he definatly would have played last week to ensure he tried to get more points. This means he knows he can do well here and knows that he would have been in this position by not playing last week, so odds of 200/1 for someone who needs to do well are outrageous. Only 2 small problems ... a possible 2nd round meeting with Nalbandian (Virtually going through the motions and looking towards next season) and a 3rd round meeting with Ferderer (who is yet to win this tournament, but is through to next weeks end of season event) :$

[Morris]

Re: BNP Paris Masters :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall Massive, huge, 30 minutes post gone! :eyes Sorry, no explanation, i cannot do that all again. Wawrinka over Kiefer - 2.66 Tursunov over Fish - 1.70 Ancic over Mathieu - 1.79 Wawa is very good and can play well - did lose to Kiefer a few weeks back, but is capable of winning this time and at 2.66, its ridiculous Tursunov can fight fire with fire here and hopefully blast Fish off the court. Fish will be drained from his last match, he fired 43 aces got took to 3 tie breaks - eventually losing to Oliver Rochus. Ancic was showing some good signs and will want to end the season on a high, as for Mathieu, you just do not know what to expect from him.

[WinningTipster]

Re: BNP Paris Masters Hi guys, following picks for today and tomorrow: ATP TOUR, PARIS ANCIC TO D MATHIEU @ 1.91 at pinnacle GROSJEAN TO D TSONGA @ 1.89 at betfair Ancic has been in good form since coming back from the injury and he loves playing indoors. He defeated Mathieu 2 weeks ago in Madrid 6:4,6:3. The total H2H is 2:1 to Ancic with Mathieu winning in Canada this year which was Ancic;s first match in 6 months, so probably a negligible result. Grosjean, a winner last week in Lyon, defeating 5 French players, including Tsonga 6:1, 6:2. After such a convincing win - he must be a favorite and 1.89 looks like a value bet.

[Morris]

Re: BNP Paris Masters

Wawrinka over Kiefer - 2.66 :clap Tursunov over Fish - 1.70 :$ Ancic over Mathieu - 1.79 :clap Wawa is very good and can play well - did lose to Kiefer a few weeks back, but is capable of winning this time and at 2.66, its ridiculous Tursunov can fight fire with fire here and hopefully blast Fish off the court. Fish will be drained from his last match, he fired 43 aces got took to 3 tie breaks - eventually losing to Oliver Rochus. Ancic was showing some good signs and will want to end the season on a high, as for Mathieu, you just do not know what to expect from him.

Packed card for tomorrow it seems, but atm, it looks to be a set of tough matches. Fabrice Santoro vs Albert Montanes At odds of 1.22 Fabrice Santoro is more than capable of destroying Montanes tomorrow. It should be easy for him, and seeing as there is not too much value in the outright win, the set betting looks a definate. In recentmatches against players of similar quality he lost 6-1 6-1 against Fernando Verdasco and 6-2 6-2 against Marcos Baghdatis. This Should be another drubbing for the Spaniard. Suggested bets : Santoro 2-0 @ 1.57 - Boylesports Santoro straight win if you can get value out of it at 1.22 :eek There not to be a tiebreak in the match - 1.33 @ Stanjames Games in the 1st set - Under 9 @ 3.20 --- one should come in Games in the 2nd set - Under 9 @ 3.20 --- one should come in Guillermo Canas vs Andreas Seppi - DNB David Nalbandian vs Carlos Moya The bookies have gone overboard and started pricing Nalbandian like he was superman. I admit, his 3 wins against no. 1, 2 and 3 in the world was impressive and he was playing great tennis, but he is not invincible and can be beaten here against Moya. Moya has all the expiereince leading into this encounter and recently beat Nalbandian on hard courts in cincinatti (in 2 breakers*). As with the Wawa prices today, 3.24 on Moya is ridiculous and one thing is for sure, he is overpriced and fresh after taking a week off. Suggested Bets: Carlos Moya to beat David Nalbandian - 3.30 @ Pinnacle :lol *There to be a tiebreak in the match - 2.50 @ Stanjames Nikolay Davydenko vs J.M Del Potro - DNB (Davydenko was penalised during his last match for 'lack of effort' he could either turn up and do this again or play superb to prove a point - too risky) Jarkko Nieminen vs Juan Monaco - DNB - I would have a small nibble on Monaco to win 2-1 @ 4.90, but its way too risky and I feel Nieminen is vaunrable after such a good run in Basel, it is just whether Monaco, who seemed to be struggling, can take advantage and catch him offguard. Jo Wilfreid Tsonga vs Sebastein Grosjean - DNB - Grosjean annihilated Tsonga and took most of the break points presented to him in Lyon, but it could be a different story this time around and I don't see it being so straight forward. Fillipo Volandri vs Jurgen Melzer Only one winner here, Volandri is poor and I feel that he will suffer the same fate as Montanes and be beaten well. He has struggled to make any inroads on the surface and does not seem to be liking it too much ---> has not won a ATP main circuit match on hard courts all year from what I can see. Melzer all the way!!!, He is a good olayer when he wants to be and is always solid. Suggested Bets: Jurgen Melzer to beat Fillipo Voladri - 1.25 @ Ladbrokes Melzer 2-0 - 1.67 @ Boylesports :lol - Massive value if you ask me! Other matches look too hard to call and at prices being offered should be DNB's 2 bankers from all the matches mentioned is Melzer x Santoro @ around 1.95 (Various) or for better odds Melzer 2-0 x Santoro 2-0 @ around 2.62 (Boylesports) Good luck all :ok

[WinningTipster]

Re: BNP Paris Masters Hi guys, following pick for Quebec tournament: DAVENPORT TO WIN QUEBEC OUTRIGHT @ 3 at betfair Davenport played just 2 tournaments this year (both in September) – she was a winner in Bali and finalist in Beijing. In those 2 tournaments Davenport had wins over Jankovic, Hantuchova and Dementieva. After such a long time off the game - she must take every tournament seriously. Looking at the Quebec draw, the only player capable of beating Davenport in good form is Vaidisova, who must suffer from jetlag and long season. So, even Davenport-Vaidisova match looks like 50/50 at least. Everything about 2.5 at betfair looks like a good deal.

[Morris]

Re: BNP Paris Masters Santoro 2-0 @ 1.57 - Boylesports :clap Santoro straight win if you can get value out of it at 1.22 :eek :clap There not to be a tiebreak in the match - 1.33 @ Stanjames :sad Games in the 1st set - Under 9 @ 3.20 --- one should come in :sad Games in the 2nd set - Under 9 @ 3.20 --- one should come in :clap has not won a ATP main circuit match on hard courts all year from what I can see. Jurgen Melzer to beat Fillipo Voladri - 1.25 @ Ladbrokes :puke Melzer 2-0 - 1.67 @ Boylesports :puke Melzer x Santoro @ around 1.95 (Various) :$ or for better odds Melzer 2-0 x Santoro 2-0 @ around 2.62 (Boylesports) :$ Wow, I wasd not expecting that. Volandri looks to have absolutly smacked Melzer. :wall

[christiano]

Re: BNP Paris Masters

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Robredo - Baghdatis
Selection	Robredo
Strength	10/10
Date	02/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 2.68 (Back)
Reasoning	2.68 for a guy who is fighting for an eight place in ATP race ranking.I'm taking this one.Both are in good form.Robredo was in SF last year here at Paris so he feels good here.This is more like 50/50 match for me.

[christiano]

Re: BNP Paris Masters

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Youzhny - Nadal
Selection	Youzhny
Strength	10/10
Date	02/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 3.40 (Back)
Reasoning	Youzhny knows how to play Nadal.At Wimbledon he won two first sets playing great tennis and he would win that match if injury wouldn't stop him then.Youzhny is in good form.He is playing great tennis and he should cause a lot of troubles to Nadal today.

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Murray - Gasquet
Selection	Murray
Strength	10/10
Date	02/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.80 (Back)
Reasoning	I must go with Murray here.He is in great form and after watching both players here at Paris I must say that Murray impressed me more then Gasquet.

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	King - Ditty
Selection	Ditty
Strength	10/10
Date	02/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betsafe @ 1.98 (Back)
Reasoning	In some bookies odds on Ditty are about 1.70.She seems to be in good form.Great wins in previous rounds.And King struggled against poor Voracova.Worth a shot.

[trusting1]

Re: BNP Paris Masters sorry but i have to say this-Randall i have been reading your tennis tips for a while now and they are extremely poor, your reasoning for the selections are terrible and it's no suprise you have so many loosing tips, just like the Robredo tip-its never going to be 50/50 Baghdatis was by far more likely to win and is in much better form than Robredo. Its not just that tip though its all the rest, basically your tips are an absolute joke and i warn people dont follow this guys advice

[trusting1]

Re: BNP Paris Masters and for the record no Randall Youzhny WONT beat Nadal, yes he won two sets at wimbeldon but that was on grass and Nadal was also struggling with an injury

[trusting1]

Re: BNP Paris Masters Ok just a quick tip-sorry at work and after my 1st post have no time to explain all the reasons why but for me-Ferrer to win 1st set against Nalbandian at 13/8 with stan james is a certain good pick, get on and make a profit

[Loz]

Re: BNP Paris Masters

Ok just a quick tip-sorry at work and after my 1st post have no time to explain all the reasons why but for me-Ferrer to win 1st set against Nalbandian at 13/8 with stan james is a certain good pick' date=' get on and make a profit[/quote'] So do you ever make any constructive comments on this board or do you just waste everyones time by critisicing others? Its very easy in hindsight.... you probably thought that Federer was going to win the tournament... go for the easy picks without thinking. Randall''s picks are fine and the reasoning is sound. You just want to hear what you want to hear. Where are your picks then???

[christiano]

Re: BNP Paris Masters

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Nadal - Baghdatis set hc
Selection	Baghdatis +1.5 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	03/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.18 (Back)
Reasoning	Baghdatis was impressive yesterday against Robredo and I see no reason why he shouldn't take at least one set from Nadal.

[christiano]

Re: BNP Paris Masters Especially for you trusting :) My tennis record from SP :tongue2 WTA: 52/95 ---- 54,74% Profit: +208,1 points Yield: +21,91% imho Julie Ditty looks tempting today :dude 3.96@Pinnacle ATP: 27/80 ---- 33,75% Profit: -225,5 points Yield: -28,54% So the conclusion is:Don't touch my ATP picks !!! :rollin...or you will lose all your money. :ok btw: those are not my all picks.I'm barely even putting 1/4 of my picks there.I am not a novelist to write long previews.I could but it's a waste of time for me.I prefer rather going for a :beerthen sitting and writing reasonings for you. ps: did you have another login before or you only made a new account to write something to me? :) waiting for your previews :)

[christiano]

Re: BNP Paris Masters

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Nalbandian - Nadal
Selection	Nadal
Strength	10/10
Date	04/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.15 (Back)
Reasoning	I'm looking at this price and I believe that value is on Rafa.Two weeks ago Nalbandian was huge underdog in their match at Madrid and now he is favourite.Ok he is playing good tennis and he is fighting for 9th place in race ranking which may take him to Shanghai but Rafa is no mug and today David will have much tougher task than two weeks ago.And pressure is on Nalbandian this time.

[christiano]

Re: BNP Paris Masters

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Davenport - Vakulenko
Selection	under 21.5
Strength	10/10
Date	04/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betway @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	I believe that it will be easy win for Davenport.Odds for 2:0 win are 1.44 so this bet looks pretty good considering that I think she will win it 2:0 :)