aliando Posted October 19, 2007 Share Posted October 19, 2007 I've spent many a long night by candle-light working on this system so hopefully it'll pay off. It's an expansion of my old "computer says yes" thread with an upgraded prediction spreadsheet. The short story is that I have used formulas to give ratings to every game each team plays. Similar formulas are used to rate each teams recent form and these ratings combine to give an overall match value. Due to the recent form element of the formulas, I've chosen not to use the predictions until there have been 12 rounds played in the division - the rationale here is that teams will have had time to settle and the overall match value should be more accurate. Technically, the results should show that the higher the rating, the stronger the probability for a home win. I will be using the English Premiership through to the old Conference divsion. Initially, the intention was to get a system that predicted winners but early results appear to show that laying the away team may be the most profitable way to go. I've not had even nearly enough time to backtest this but have looked at the Conference since Round 12. The next post shows the results returned and a small analysis of the results in order to show where my thinking comes from. I'll put up similar stats every now and then when time allows. Its early days, I know, but once the system is up and firing fully, if any of the staistically minded folks can analyse the info and demonstrate the best way of maximising profits then I'm happy to listen (but please use simple language for me :$). I'll be using 3 staking systems initially: Staking Plan A - Boxed Singles Bets laying the away team will be placed one at a time and profits mounting up until the box has completed 5 successful lays. An unsuccessful lay means a losing box and a loss of the original liability. I will use a starting bank of 40pts and each box will have a starting liability of 2pts. Bets will initially be placed on matches that have rating of 200+ as this appears to be the cut off line where results are more predictable (see next post + posts 14 & 15) although I may need to up this level if the early figures are not continued. Staking Plan B - Top 8 Lays Accy Simply I'll use the top 8 lays to use in an accy. This will only be applied to weekend bets where at least 4 of the five divisions have as good as a full programme. I will either use betfair multiples or use a bookmaker through double chance bets. I will use a starting bank of 40pts and each bet will be 5% of the bank. Staking Plan C - Double Up I will use the top rating matches in order to get enough odds to double my stake (ie. evens/2.0) in an accy. This will only be applied to weekend bets where at least 4 of the five divisions have as good as a full programme. I will either use betfair multiples or use a bookmaker through double chance bets. I will use a starting bank of 40pts and each bet will be 5% of the bank. For all staking plans, I will have an intial target of 100pts where I will then take back my original bank (40pts) and continue from there. The post below will not be used for after- eventing, just to show how the early conference results have panned out. All banks start from this point. I will say now that with baby pending and work/family commitments that I may not be able to post all the time but will do so as much as possible. Although much of the workings are updated automatically, theres still a bit of manual inputting needed. I will update things here as we go if needed - please feel free to ask any questions through the thread as i invariably miss stuff out in the opening posts :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 19, 2007 Author Share Posted October 19, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted October 19, 2007 Share Posted October 19, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 Good Luck with this Ali. as usual will be watching your Thread with intrest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted October 19, 2007 Share Posted October 19, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 Good luck mate:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 20, 2007 Author Share Posted October 20, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 cheers lads - just hoping it achieves my early expectations :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 20, 2007 Author Share Posted October 20, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 20, 2007 Author Share Posted October 20, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 sundays game rating yorktorq-633.75 no bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 JUST A THOUGHT The Conference has a nearly 30% of away wins i.e. 1 out of 3 ends as away win, so if you choose 6 matches, you increase the risk of getting more away wins in your selections. Why don't you try to lay just the top 3 ratings above 500 points? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 21, 2007 Author Share Posted October 21, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 JUST A THOUGHT The Conference has a nearly 30% of away wins i.e. 1 out of 3 ends as away win, so if you choose 6 matches, you increase the risk of getting more away wins in your selections. Why don't you try to lay just the top 3 ratings above 500 points? thanks for the comment :ok at the moment, the system is in its infancy and i'm not 100% sure where to place the cut off point. Up to Friday, the cut off appeared to be at 100 but i'm aware that this is based on a very small sample size. I'm not planning to change it quite yet but will keep an eye on it. the 500 mark would appear to make more sense in the long run, but whether this is the optimum cut off point or whether its a mark that just sounds logical, i'll need a much longer run to tell. i've purposefully left the other 2 staking strategies until the other divisions are also being played in order to minimise the chances of borderline ratings ballsing up an accy. this should then ensure that the chosen lays are all high ratings, quite possibly all being >500. I'm intending to put all the ratings up as i go because there may be suggestionsothers may have that i've not thought of plus others may wish to use the stats for their own betting - hopefully many of us can get some good profits from this system :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galronix Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 Very best of luck with this Ali. :hope I'm sure all the hard work you have put into this will pay well. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 21, 2007 Author Share Posted October 21, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 Very best of luck with this Ali. :hope I'm sure all the hard work you have put into this will pay well. :ok cheers gal :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 21, 2007 Author Share Posted October 21, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 21, 2007 Author Share Posted October 21, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 actually just looking at that again, there seems to be a area between +200 and -200 where 10 of the 13 wrong lay results have occured - again will keep an eye on... removing all results between that range would leave 29/32 correct lays - strike rate of just over 90% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 21, 2007 Author Share Posted October 21, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 given the stats above, I have now altered the first post for staking plan a to include lays for matches with rating over 200 rather than 100 and will continue to monitor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 21, 2007 Author Share Posted October 21, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 26, 2007 Author Share Posted October 26, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 it wont be included in the stats as there isnt at least 4 out of the 5 divisions included here yet, but I've taken the 4 highest lays, all over +500 rating to the home team - bristol rovers, millwall, stockport and accrington with betfair multiples 'lay all four' accy expected odds 2.18 2pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted October 27, 2007 Share Posted October 27, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 :hope For the weekend Ali :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 27, 2007 Author Share Posted October 27, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 cheers kev Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 27, 2007 Author Share Posted October 27, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 sundays game 28-Octdonlori-351.79 no bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 29, 2007 Author Share Posted October 29, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 30, 2007 Author Share Posted October 30, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 30, 2007 Author Share Posted October 30, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 thursday's conference game is a no bet 01-Novrushox65.92 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 30, 2007 Author Share Posted October 30, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 i now have 4 divisions up and running with stats and fixtures this weekend, so I'll start the staking plans B & C this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted November 3, 2007 Share Posted November 3, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 So I guess you got an excuse for not posting this weekend!!!! A New Born Baby, or a little over indulgence :beer:beer, Which is fully deserved.:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted November 4, 2007 Author Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 So I guess you got an excuse for not posting this weekend!!!! A New Born Baby, or a little over indulgence :beer:beer, Which is fully deserved.:clap:clap :ok - yep, kinda missed the football completely :loon i waas very impressed with the wife who managed to give birth on a weekend that cardiff werent playing :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 :ok - yep, kinda missed the football completely :loon i waas very impressed with the wife who managed to give birth on a weekend that cardiff werent playing :clap Reminds me of our first, Told Georgina not on a tuesday as I have darts and i am unbeaten:ok Well goes into labour at 11.30pm on a Monday night, and gives Birth at 11.23pm on a Tuesday Night:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted November 4, 2007 Author Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 Reminds me of our first, Told Georgina not on a tuesday as I have darts and i am unbeaten:ok Well goes into labour at 11.30pm on a Monday night, and gives Birth at 11.23pm on a Tuesday Night:lol :lol - the words "as long as you dont drop before poker night" with my first are now immortalised too :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted November 6, 2007 Author Share Posted November 6, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted November 7, 2007 Author Share Posted November 7, 2007 Re: Aliando's Football Ratings 2007/8 another night of poor results plus a bit of back testing shows that this system currently isnt working well enough and not doing what i set out to achieve. bit peeved but will learn me for not properly backtesting before starting. I've got a few ideas to try on it and wont be giving up on this. Will have some decent backtesting done before I try again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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