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Divisional Favourites


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Gonna test run this as have done some backtesting and there shows some potential... I'll use 5 english divisions Premier Championship League One League Two Blue Sq Premier Conference Each division will be given a starting bank of 100pts and will attempt to increase the bank by approx 1% each bet using the following stakes 1% of bank 2.5% of bank 5% of bank 7.5% of bank 10% of bank The target bank will only increase once the original target has been hit. Each bet will be on the home favourite (ie the home team with the lowest odds) from http://www.odds-comparison.co.uk/ - regardless of who the best lowest odds are with, I'll use betfair for this test - if you choose to follow then i'd advise you check the bookies you are with for potential better prices. Should there be 2 qualifying entries (equally lowest best odds) then I will not bet. I hope that makes sense - feel free to ask any questions and if needs be I'll update this post with more info. :hope

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Re: Divisional Favourites for this bet only, i'll show you the way i'm picking my bets Eng Premier Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt

Saturday 6 October 2007
HomeDrawAwaysp.gifBPP
Manchester Utd v Wigan (12:45 BST)1.217.2026.00101% SS1.gif
Aston Villa v West Ham (15:00 BST)2.003.604.60100%
Sunday 7 October 2007
HomeDrawAwaysp.gifBPP
Arsenal v Sunderland (12:00 BST)1.226.8023.00102% STT1.gif
Reading v Derby County (14:00 BST)1.813.605.90100%
Blackburn v Birmingham City (15:00 BST)1.743.956.2099%
Bolton Wanderers v Chelsea (15:00 BST)5.803.801.80100%
Liverpool v Tottenham (15:00 BST)1.614.206.75101%
Manchester City v Middlesbrough (15:00 BST)1.753.905.90100%
Newcastle Utd v Everton (15:00 BST)2.283.453.80100%
Fulham v Portsmouth (16:10 BST)2.643.552.88101%
as you can see, man utd marginally have the lowest best odds, so this is the chosen bet. Bet - Man utd Odds - 1.20 Stake - 5% of bank (5pts) to win 1pt
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Re: Divisional Favourites so first round of bets are: Eng Premier Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - Man utd Odds - 1.20 Stake - 5% of bank (5pts) to win 1pt Eng Championship Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - Charlton Odds - 1.64 Stake - 2.5% of bank (5pts) to win 1.60pts Eng L1 Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - Leeds Odds - 1.63 Stake - 2.5% of bank (5pts) to win 1.57pts Eng L2 Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - MK Dons Odds - 1.64 Stake - 2.5% of bank (5pts) to win 1.60pts Eng Conference Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - weymouth Odds - 1.58 Stake - 2.5% of bank (5pts) to win 1.45pts

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Re: Divisional Favourites did a cut and paste and forgot to change the stakes in brackets - chnged here. so first round of bets are: Eng Premier Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - Man utd Odds - 1.20 Stake - 5% of bank (5pts) to win 1pt Eng Championship Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - Charlton Odds - 1.64 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.5pts) to win 1.60pts Eng L1 Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - Leeds Odds - 1.63 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.5pts) to win 1.57pts Eng L2 Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - MK Dons Odds - 1.64 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.5pts) to win 1.60pts Eng Conference Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - weymouth Odds - 1.58 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.5pts) to win 1.45pts

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Re: Divisional Favourites Good luck mate. Just one thing, without wanting to sound like a pessimist but should one of the teams lose what happens next time around? i.e Man Utd fail to win so your new bank is now 95pts. What are you trying to win for the next bet? 1% of the new 95pts or jump to try and win 1% of where you should have been i.e 102pts? Danny :ok

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Re: Divisional Favourites cheers lads! I'll be aiming to hit each 1% increase before increasing the target - thus for the championship line, the target remains at 101pts after Charltons draw today whereas the other lines will move up to the next target. always good to ask questions as it helps me look at stuff i've not added into the first post or not looked at :ok

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Re: Divisional Favourites first round of bets Eng Premier Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - Man utd Odds - 1.20 Stake - 5% of bank (5pts) to win 1pt BET WON Profit after commission - 0.95pts New Bank - 100.95 New Target - 101.96 (100.95*0.01=1.01) Eng Championship Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - Charlton Odds - 1.64 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.5pts) to win 1.60pts BET LOST Loss of 2.5pts New Bank - 97.5 Remaining Target - 101pts Eng L1 Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - Leeds Odds - 1.63 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.5pts) to win 1.57pts BET WON Profit after commission - 1.50pts New Bank - 101.50 New Target - 102.52 (101.50*0.01=1.02) Eng L2 Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - MK Dons Odds - 1.64 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.5pts) to win 1.60pts BET WON Profit after commission - 1.52pts New Bank - 101.52 New Target - 102.54 (101.52*0.01=1.02) Eng Conference Bank - 100pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 1pt Bet - weymouth Odds - 1.58 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.5pts) to win 1.45pts BET WON Profit after commission - 1.38pts New Bank - 101.38 New Target - 102.39 (101.38*0.01=1.01) Overall Bets - 5 Wins - 4 Starting Bank - 500.00pts Current Bank - 502.85pts

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Re: Divisional Favourites Eng Premier Bank - 100.95pts Intended Target - 101.96pts Difference = 1.01pts Bet - no bet as no matches Eng Championship Bank - 97.5pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 3.5pts Bet - no bet as no matches Eng L1 Bank - 101.50pts Intended Target - 102.52pts Difference = 1.02pts Bet - Leeds Odds - 1.55 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.54pts) to win 1.40pts Eng L2 Bank - 101.52pts Intended Target - 102.54pts Difference = 1.02pts Bet - MK Dons Odds - 1.53 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.54pts) to win 1.35pts Eng Conference Bank - 101.38pts Intended Target - 102.39pts Difference = 1.01pts Bet - ebbsfleet Odds - 1.55 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.53pts) to win 1.39pts

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Re: Divisional Favourites Eng Premier Bank - 100.95pts Intended Target - 101.96pts Difference = 1.01pts Bet - no bet as no matches Eng Championship Bank - 97.5pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 3.5pts Bet - no bet as no matches Eng L1 Bank - 101.50pts Intended Target - 102.52pts Difference = 1.02pts Bet - Leeds Odds - 1.55 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.54pts) to win 1.40pts BET LOST Loss of 2.5pts New Bank - 98.96 Remaining Target - 102.52pts Eng L2 Bank - 101.52pts Intended Target - 102.54pts Difference = 1.02pts Bet - MK Dons Odds - 1.53 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.54pts) to win 1.35pts BET WON Profit after commission - 1.28pts New Bank - 102.80 New Target - 103.82 Eng Conference Bank - 101.38pts Intended Target - 102.39pts Difference = 1.01pts Bet - ebbsfleet Odds - 1.55 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.53pts) to win 1.39pts BET WON Profit after commission - 1.32pts New Bank - 102.70 New Target - 103.73 Overall Bets - 8 Wins - 6 Starting Bank - 500.00pts Current Bank - 502.91pts

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Re: Divisional Favourites Eng Premier Bank - 100.95pts Intended Target - 101.96pts Difference = 1.01pts Bet - arsenal odds - 1.27 Stake - 5% of bank (5.10pts) to win 1.31pts post commission Eng Championship Bank - 97.5pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 3.5pts Bet - watford odds - 1.62 Stake - 7.5% of bank (7.31pts) to win 4.31pts post commission Eng L1 Bank - 98.96pts Intended Target - 102.52pts Difference = 3.56pts Bet - carlisle odds - 1.63 Stake - 7.5% of bank (7.42pts) to win 4.44pts post commission Eng L2 Bank - 102.80pts Intended Target - 103.82pts Difference = 1.02pts Bet - chesterfield odds - 1.66 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.57pts) to win 1.61pts post commission Eng Conference Bank - 102.70pts Intended Target - 103.73pts Difference = 1.03pts Bet - crawley odds - 1.55 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.57pts) to win 1.34pts post commission

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Re: Divisional Favourites Eng Premier Bank - 100.95pts Intended Target - 101.96pts Difference = 1.01pts Bet - arsenal odds - 1.27 Stake - 5% of bank (5.10pts) to win 1.31pts post commission BET WON New Bank - 102.26pts Next Target = 103.28 Eng Championship Bank - 97.5pts Intended Target - 101pts Difference = 3.5pts Bet - watford odds - 1.62 Stake - 7.5% of bank (7.31pts) to win 4.31pts post commission BET WON New Bank - 101.81pts Next Target = 102.83 Eng L1 Bank - 98.96pts Intended Target - 102.52pts Difference = 3.56pts Bet - carlisle odds - 1.63 Stake - 7.5% of bank (7.42pts) to win 4.44pts post commission BET WON New Bank - 103.40pts Next Target = 104.43 Eng L2 Bank - 102.80pts Intended Target - 103.82pts Difference = 1.02pts Bet - chesterfield odds - 1.66 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.57pts) to win 1.61pts post commission BET LOST New Bank - 100.23pts Remaining Target = 103.82pts Eng Conference Bank - 102.70pts Intended Target - 103.73pts Difference = 1.03pts Bet - crawley odds - 1.55 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.57pts) to win 1.34pts post commission BET LOST New Bank - 100.13pts Remaining Target = 103.73pts Overall Bets - 13 Wins - 9 Starting Bank - 500.00pts Current Bank - 509.87pts

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Re: Divisional Favourites Eng Premier Bank - 102.26pts Intended Target - 103.28pts Difference = 1.02pts Bet - man utd odds - 1.22 Stake - 5% of bank (5.11pts) to win 1.06pts post commission Eng Championship Bank - 101.81pts Intended Target - 102.83 Difference = 1.02pts Bet - west brom odds - 1.43 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.54pts) to win 1.04pts post commission Eng L1 Bank - 103.40pts Intended Target - 104.43pts Difference = 1.03pts Bet - leeds odds - 1.50 Stake - 2.5% of bank (2.59pts) to win 1.23pts post commission Eng L2 Bank - 100.23pts Intended Target - 103.82pts Difference = 3.59pts Bet - mk dons odds - 1.49 Stake - 7.5% of bank (7.52pts) to win 3.50pts post commission Eng Conference Bank - 100.13pts Intended Target - 103.73pts Difference = 3.60pts Bet - no bet as no games odds - Stake -

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