Follow the money

[Dices]

Hi everyone.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

The idea is well known. Assuming that Racing Post Forecast prices are “accurate†any significant “drop†in odds will indicate that some people know (I wonder how?) that the specific horse has “great†chance of winning.

So they bet on this horse, odds dropping, we follow the money.

The idea is sold through some commercial systems with amazing claims – winnings, let’s find out if it works.

Some notes:

In case of N/R rule 4 have calculated to the forecast prices. From these reduced prices I calculated any decrease in odds.

The % decrease in odds is calculated only to the winning part of the odds, so from a forecast price of 10.0 and final SP of 6.0 the calculations are: 10.0-1.0 = 9.0 (this is the fcst price I use) and for the SP 6.0-1.0 = 5.0 (this is the final SP I use) so the drop is 9-5 = 4, so the % decrease is 4/9 = - 44.44% (minus because it is decrease).

Why I did it this way? Simply because I believe this way of calculation is logical.

Note that small errors may exist at the results but generally I believe they are correct.

Recording started from almost the beginning of August 2007 (two months ago)

Rules:

Betting at the horse with the largest decrease in odds (fcst-SP) for every race and for level betting (one point per bet).

Results at SP:

Betting days	47
Won	246
Bets	1247
SR	19.73
Profit (points)	-236.72
Yield %	-18.98

After applying some filters:

Forecast prices (before rule 4) bigger or equal than 9 AND smaller or equal than 21:

Decrease in odds larger than 50% (>-50%) (The real inside information – bankers)

Decrease % >=	-50%	-55%	-60%	-65%	-70%
Betting days	47	46	42	34	15
Won	43	36	26	16	6
Bets	224	150	98	44	17
SR	19.20	24.00	26.53	36.36	35.29
Profit (points)	24.63	50.13	41.83	40.50	13.00
Yield %	10.99	33.42	42.69	92.05	76.47

The 50 points profit (aprox) at the last table with the filters is made in August 2007 (20 betting days) and September has made a small loss. The sample for the last table is still small so I’ll be back in a couple of months with the new data ( I hope).

Big thanks to sumuwin, without his help I wouldn’t be able to track the results.

THANKS SUMUWIM.

Dices

[BillyHills]

Re: Follow the money Dices, good luck with this. Just one thing, when do you actually put the bets on? Obviously the SP is not known until after the race. Thanks, BH

[Dices]

Re: Follow the money

Just one thing, when do you actually put the bets on? Obviously the SP is not known until after the race. Thanks, BH

A great question Billy, i'm not placing actually any bets as this is a test (and will be for a long time). I'm collecting RP results at the end of the day (with SP) and calculate any change at odds. If someone wants to place real bets will have to create something auto - a programm to calculate the drop and place the bets. Gruss soft can do it if someone create the needed formulas in excel (something for the future). Dices Edit: Or if you pre-calculate the required drop - the required new odds you can place bets easily.

[BillyHills]

Re: Follow the money Ok mate, just one comment about the RP f/c prices that I have noticed, they seem more accurate at the bigger meetings for some reason.