Rugby Quarb System

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System

Don't worry mate, still in profit Put it all on Worcester in the European Final ;)

Last four weeks have been a real nightmare - wiped out half my profits for the season :wall Wish I had your faith in Worcester. Bath will be a tough side to beat. :hope for you.

[Wumpking]

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Sharks bet of £50.00 was matched in full @ 1.47

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Results update : Sharks beat Chiefs 47 - 25 :cow Montpellier beat Bourgoin 12 - 6 :cow System update:

Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,412.11
Total Staked	£9,065.27
Number of Bets	173
Winning Bets	137
Losing Bets	36
Strike Rate	79.2%
Yield	4.5%
Profit / Loss	£412.11

After a nightmare 4 weeks, thankfully a winning weekend and just over a £50 profit :)

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby Quarb System :nana Glad you are back to those 100% times :ok

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System

:nana Glad you are back to those 100% times :ok

Me too!!!! The season is nearly done and dusted as only the French Top 14 league is still running, so probably not too many betting opportunities left. I'm going to fine tune the system over the summer to try and improve the strike rate, yield and profit and start again in September. Good luck for Sunday. I'll certainly be cheering Worcester on.

[Wumpking]

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System New Zealand bet not matched and now lapsed. Results update: South Africa beat Wales 43 - 17 :cow Argentina beat Scotland 21 - 15 :cow System update:

Starting Bank	£1,000.00
Current Bank	£1,478.15
Total Staked	£9,252.27
Number of Bets	175
Winning Bets	139
Losing Bets	36
Strike Rate	79.4%
Yield	5.2%
Profit / Loss	£478.15

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System 2 bets with the bookies so far this weekend: Match No.DateTournamentHome TeamBest OddsAv OddsAv Odds +5%Av Odds +7%SelectionBookieOdds RequestedStake55414/06/2008InternationalNew Zealand1.121.061.111.13New ZealandBetChronicle1.12£83.0055514/06/2008InternationalAustralia1.191.131.191.21AustraliaBetChronicle1.19£71.00

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Don't know what has happened to the above table, it normally pastes in from Excel without problems. For clarification bets are: New Zealand - £83.00 @ 1.12 with BetChronicle Australia - £71.00 @ 1.19 with BetChronicle

[DeepBlueDevilFish]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Pasting from Excel has been disabled for a while due to a potential security risk Wumpking. :\ A bit more more info here :- http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f2/cant-post-excel-gh-forum-68519/

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Thanks DeepBlueDevilFish for info. I'll try the pasting into word first route next time as suggested in the post W

[SteveO]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Hey Wumpking what does your World Ranking system make of the handicap on matches this weekend? (Excellent results by the way).

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Results update: New Zealand beat England 37 - 20 :cow Australia beat Ireland 18 - 12 :cow System update:

Starting Bank £1,000.00

Current Bank £1,501.60 Total Staked £9,406.27 Number of Bets 177 Winning Bets 141 Losing Bets 36 Strike Rate 79.7% Yield 5.3% Profit / Loss £501.60 Total profit creeping slowly upwards again :)

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System

Hey Wumpking what does your World Ranking system make of the handicap on matches this weekend? (Excellent results by the way).

Hi SteveO Thanks for the kind comment, the system is chugging along nicely again. Sorry for delay in responding but have only just been able to log on to PL. Although this is aftertiming, the IRB ratings would suggest: New Zealand to win by 20 (actual was 17) South Africa to win by 30 (actual was 16) Australia to win by 22 (actual was 6) Argentina to win by 34 (actual was -12 as they lost!) I've abandoned the IRB ratings as a means to predict handicap wins as they proved to be extremely unreliable (as per above). W

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Hi All With the Magners League starting tomorrow and the Guinness Premiership starting on Saturday along with week 3 of the Top 14 League in France (missed weeks 1 & 2 here :$), its time to start up this system again. To recap, the rules of the Rugby Quarb System are as follows:

• Only home sides in rugby union matches, both domestic and international, will be considered for betting purposes. This is because there is a strong home bias in rugby. Furthermore, the draw outcome has limited impact.
• Only mean odds of 1.50 or less will be considered from an analysis of at least 8-10 bookmakers’ prices. The underlying assumption of the system is that the consensus market price is a good indicator of ‘true’ probability. In this respect, the subjective probability of the home side winning a match will be at least 66.7%.
• Where a bookmaker’s price is out of line with the mean by at least 5% or more (or 7% for Betfair to take into account commission), a Quarb or betting opportunity is considered to occur.
• Stakes are based on the Kelly criteria with an added modification to limit risk and are calculated by the following formulae: Current Total Bank x % Difference between Mean Odds and Best Odds x Subjective Probability of Winning (as derived from the mean odds).

Starting bank will be £1,501.60 Here's to a good season of rugby quarbing :hope W

[Matthew]

Re: Rugby Quarb System it's good to see you back for the new season wumpking. You mentioned in a previous post that you were going to play around over the summer and see if you could improve strike rate/yield. Did you do any of this?

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System

it's good to see you back for the new season wumpking.

You mentioned in a previous post that you were going to play around over the summer and see if you could improve strike rate/yield. Did you do any of this?

Hi Matthew Thanks for the good wishes. I did spend some time over the summer looking at last seasons bets / results, etc, with a view to trying increasing the system profits. I've looked at the outcomes for the various tournies:

Tournie	Profit / Loss
EDF Cup	-26.83
European Challenge Cup	34.02
Guinness Premiership	97.70
Heineken Cup	282.22
International Friendly	89.49
Magners League	-197.38
RWC 2007	-149.52
Six Nations	-27.75
Super 14	360.83
Top 14	38.82
Grand Total	501.60

The Rugby World Cup I should have left alone as many of the matches were played on neutral grounds and hence lost the home ground bias that exists strongly in Rugby Union. I'm probably going to be a bit more wary this season in respect of matches in the Magners League. There were some notable shocks last season however, which may have skewed the profit/loss figures. Also looked at the range of odds I've actually backed teams at:

Odds Range	Profit / Loss
Less than 1.10	6.75
1.10 - 1.19	85.80
1.20 - 1.29	152.58
1.30 - 1.39	137.85
1.40 - 1.49	153.63
1.50 and over	-35.01
Grand Total	501.60

I potentially could eliminate everything over 1.50 here but feel this may cause a few real juicy bets to be missed. Overall, I've decided to let the system ride as it stands this season. Lets hope I don't bet to regret this . . .

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System No qualifying bets for tonight's Magners League matches or for tomorrow's Guinness Premiership. 2 qualifying bets however in the Top 14 for Saturday:

Date	Tournament	Home Team	Av Odds	Av Odds +5%	Odds Requested	Bookie	Stake	Bet Matched
06/09/2008	Top 14	Brive	1.32	1.39	1.40	SkyBet	£69.00	Yes
06/09/2008	Top 14	Montauban	1.30	1.36	1.36	SkyBet	£56.00	Yes

[SteveO]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Nice to see you back mate and good luck with the system. How do you feel about any of the handicaps on this weekends matches?

[Matthew]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Hi Wumpking, You've said there were a few shocks that may have flipped your P&L in a certain league. But were there any where you got out of jail? I'm gonna follow you anyway this season and wondered what stake you would go for if you were to take the 1.44 on offer at Bluesq or 888sport. I tried to calculate your stake but got a different number, you say your stake is derived by: Current Total Bank x % Difference between Mean Odds and Best Odds x Subjective Probability of Winning (as derived from the mean odds) Current Bank = £1,501.60 % Difference between Mean Odds and Best Odds = (1.40 - 1.32)/1.32 = 0.06 recurring Subjective Probability of Winning (as derived from the mean odds) = 1.32 So £1,501.60 x 0.0606060606 x 1.32 = £120.13 Where have I gone wrong?

[mcgin]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Wumpking, Nice to see you back with this. I'll be taking part again :) Personally tho I'll be staying clear till about 4 weeks in just so any unexpected improvements (or lack of) have a chance to be incorporated into the prices

[seepps]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Hi Wumpking, I have followed your thread with interest and the system you run on rugby give me ideas for the system I run on tennis (WTA) and soccer home win. Sure that there's also a bias in rugby (your system is here to prove that) I would like to backtest it. The problem is that i don't find data for rugby like I could find for tennis or football (www.tennis-data.co.uk / www.football-data.co.uk). Thanks for this thread and good luck for this new season.

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System

Nice to see you back mate and good luck with the system. How do you feel about any of the handicaps on this weekends matches?

Hi SteveO Thanks for the good wishes. Haven't really looked at the handicap betting so can't really help here. I would be cautious of backing any side to give up a large number of points however as the wet weather will undoubtably keep scores down this weekend (e.g. 3 of tonight's Magners League results within 7 point victory margin). Good luck with any bets you place.

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System

Hi Wumpking, You've said there were a few shocks that may have flipped your P&L in a certain league. But were there any where you got out of jail? I'm gonna follow you anyway this season and wondered what stake you would go for if you were to take the 1.44 on offer at Bluesq or 888sport. I tried to calculate your stake but got a different number, you say your stake is derived by: Current Total Bank x % Difference between Mean Odds and Best Odds x Subjective Probability of Winning (as derived from the mean odds) Current Bank = £1,501.60 % Difference between Mean Odds and Best Odds = (1.40 - 1.32)/1.32 = 0.06 recurring Subjective Probability of Winning (as derived from the mean odds) = 1.32 So £1,501.60 x 0.0606060606 x 1.32 = £120.13 Where have I gone wrong?

Hi Matthew There were a number of bets that narrowly won. Best result for me last season was Match 317 - Bayonne v Montauban. I had a £116 on @ 1.53. Bayonne thankfully came through to win 25 - 18. In respect of the 1.44 now available on Brive, when I reviewed the odds earlier the best odds was 1.40 and the mean odds was 1.32. If you recalculate, the best odds now is 1.44 and the mean odds now is 1.35. Sometimes last season a better price would come available. More often than not the price would drop as the bookie with the quarb odds adjusted to come into line. Regarding the calculation, I make it to be: £1,501.60 x 0.06 x 0.76 = £68.47 (which I rounded up to £69.00) I obtain the Subjective Probability of Winning figure of 0.76 or 76% by using the calculation = 1/1.32 i.e. odds of 1.32 equates to a 76% chance of success. Hope this helps W

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System

Wumpking, Nice to see you back with this. I'll be taking part again :) Personally tho I'll be staying clear till about 4 weeks in just so any unexpected improvements (or lack of) have a chance to be incorporated into the prices

Hi mcgin Thanks for the good wishes. As stated is Post 1, much of the credit for this approach stems from your original work analysing the ‘favourite-longshot bias’ in rugby and the work of others such as Datapunter with the hot favourites soccer system. I still live in hope that I could match that fantastic run of 33 wins you had - :notworthy. Good luck this season W

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System

Hi Wumpking, I have followed your thread with interest and the system you run on rugby give me ideas for the system I run on tennis (WTA) and soccer home win. Sure that there's also a bias in rugby (your system is here to prove that) I would like to backtest it. The problem is that i don't find data for rugby like I could find for tennis or football (www.tennis-data.co.uk / www.football-data.co.uk). Thanks for this thread and good luck for this new season.

Hi seepps Thanks for the good wishes. I've had a look at your threads and will continue to view with interest your work over the forthcoming season. Rugby data isn't easily available to obtain, particularly of the type you mention for tennis or football. http://www.eurorugby.com/index.php is worth a view as it provides the last 30 results of every major European side and attempts to rank all of these European sides based on their performance in their respective domestic leagues and the Heineken Cup (I'm sure there is some way to exploit this data to create a system but am not sure how to proceed with using index ratings). Otherwise, you are reliant on sites like Planet Rugby, etc for information. Good luck with your betting W

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System No further qualifiers in any of today's matches The best price on Brive has now dropped back to 1.40 (hope you got on @ 1.44 Matthew)

[TheRat]

Re: Rugby Quarb System Good lluck for the season mate :hope

[Wumpking]

Re: Rugby Quarb System

Good lluck for the season mate :hope

Hi TheRat Thanks for the good wishes.