Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove

[robilaruk]

Following on from pop quiz XXXII flopped quad Aces again and this time have someone who wants to play against me after I was the PF raiser - so whats my play and why? Its easy to flat call here and hope they bluff at the turn, but surely they wont? so should my play be to raise? or even shove? Thanks Damo 100.00/200.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit ) - 11 August 2007 22:56:10 STT $10 NL (Real /Tournament ) Seat 3: tarmod (820.00) Seat 4: Vicky9 (4535.00) Seat 5: harry1 (2775.00) Seat 6: Ray-Dog (735.00) Seat 7: robilaruk (4280.00) Seat 9: xsnooker (1330.00) Seat 10: PORCHER56 (525.00) Vicky9 post SB 100.00 harry1 post BB 200.00 ** Deal ** robilaruk [Ad, 9d] *** Bet Round 1 *** Ray-Dog Fold robilaruk Raise to 600.00 xsnooker Fold PORCHER56 Fold tarmod Fold Vicky9 Call 600.00 harry1 Fold *** Flop(Board): *** : [As, Ac, Ah] *** Bet Round 2 *** Vicky9 Bet 800.00 Hero???

[GaF]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove An opponent betting at me ..... I dwell up a little, then flat call.

[Nade]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove I don't really have a defined strategy in these situations as it can depend on the opposition player as to how to play it. If the player is known to be aggressive then a flat call would be good as you're confident they'll take a stab at either of or both of the last streets. If they're a tight player then you'd be pretty certain they had a PP, probably a mid to low pair and bet as they don't want to see another card which could be higher - In this case i'd be tempted to flat call again and hope for a low card on the turn, let them bet out then come over the top. I can't see 'vicky' wanting to commit too many chips as she's the chip leader so you want to extract the maximum. Flat call and see if she takes another stab at the turn then re-raise, but i'd love to hear some defined strategy in these situations too as i'm not sure about them.

[GaF]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove Yours is a far better answer than mine Nade and you are spot on - you don't want a predefined strategy - as you say "it depends", and that should be the right answer to 99% of poker questions......

[daftpegasus]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove A raise screams strenght and therefore shows that you have the fourth Ace. A shove might work if Vicky has something like KK, QQ (which is possible since she called a 3x BB raise against the only player who could do her stack a lot of damage). However you have to call this. You have position and the best hand by far. Like Gaf, I'd hesitate as long as possible (invoking extra time if possible) before calling. Let's hope she has another stab at the pot on either the turn or river. Any stab from her is likely to be about 1000 chips so worth waiting for if it happens.

[happyhornet]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove I agree with everyone else here. You can't raise, and a shove will only get a call from a high pocket pair (and there is no certainty that they would call). Flat call, and hope she has a hand so she bets on the turn.

[Pocket Lady]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove

An opponent betting at me ..... I dwell up a little' date=' then flat call.[/quote'] snap - don't want to scare her away with a raise.

[slapdash]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove I'm slightly amused that several people think that a raise would give away that you had the ace ... but that nobody would raise with the ace! I'm pretty sure that you should sometimes raise with the ace ... and sometimes raise without it.

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove :dude Damo

I'm slightly amused that several people think that a raise would give away that you had the ace ... but that nobody would raise with the ace! I'm pretty sure that you should sometimes raise with the ace ... and sometimes raise without it.

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove cheers - I did indeed dwell on it and called with about 3 seconds to go anyhoo the turn is a 9 so i now have an absolute lock as I very much doubt Vicky has 99 with me having A9, something like a Q,J or 10 might have been better if she is playing a mid-hi PP, so am not expecting any action and she bets again! is this the time to raise because Ican't see her betting the river if I call again here? Damo Seat 4: Vicky9 (4535.00) Seat 7: robilaruk (4280.00) Vicky9 post SB 100.00 harry1 post BB 200.00 ** Deal ** robilaruk [Ad, 9d] *** Bet Round 1 *** robilaruk Raise to 600.00 Vicky9 Call 600.00 *** Flop(Board): *** : [As, Ac, Ah] *** Bet Round 2 *** Vicky9 Bet 800.00 robilaruk Call 800.00 *** Turn(Board): *** : [As, Ac, Ah, 9h] *** Bet Round 3 *** Vicky9 Bet 1200.00 Hero??????

[happyhornet]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove I'm not sure. I reckon, another.........pause, followed by a call might elicit a bet on the river. I would be afraid that a raise would scare her away.

[GaF]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove

cheers - I did indeed dwell on it and called with about 3 seconds to go

I think you can over dwell ...... that stinks of a monster to me when people do that....

[GaF]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove Now I spring the trap and reraise all in - she's put so much money in she likes it ..... the ezxpectation would be to call with the ace - a reraise all in implies you dont have the Ace, so you get a bit of deception value....

[slapdash]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove

Now I spring the trap and reraise all in - she's put so much money in she likes it ..... the ezxpectation would be to call with the ace - a reraise all in implies you dont have the Ace' date=' so you get a bit of deception value....[/quote'] I have a slight philosophical difficulty with the argument "If I do X, that implies I don't have Y. I do have Y, so I'll do X for deception." If you do X despite having Y, then obviously it doesn't imply that you don't have Y! If this is the right strategy here (which it might well be) then it's because you have a psychological advantage over your opponent (which again might well be the case, especially in a $10 STT).

[GaF]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove I think most players most of the time will flat call with an Ace. I think most players, when they raise, most of the time wont have an ace. As you say though, it depends how deeply your opponent thinks about it.... From what you say though, is it ever worth trying to put your opponent on a hand then?

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove

I think you can over dwell ...... that stinks of a monster to me when people do that....

or how much do I like my JJ, is the other person bluffing with three Aces on the board - I would pretty much play JJ the same, thinking about would Vicky bluff without an Ace, or am I going to shove my JJ to her 'bluff', or does she actually have an Ace and wants me to bluff/shove her etc - all this would take time up, so its not unusual for the flop play - I wouldn't do it on the turn tho, its a 5 sec think and call not a 15 sec think and call when I have quads, there is no point stringing pout another 15sec think and call with the nuts - that WOULD be obvious Damo

[slapdash]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove

I think most players most of the time will flat call with an Ace. I think most players, when they raise, most of the time wont have an ace.

Except you? :tongue2 I'm not getting at you personally, but if I decided that most players would do such and such, and therefore I won't, that would start me doubting whether I'm right that most people would do it, unless I were very sure that I was an exception.

From what you say though, is it ever worth trying to put your opponent on a hand then?

I'm sure you'd agree that you should put your opponent on a range of hands rather than a particular hand. But more than that, you should in theory put your opponent on a range of hands together with probabilities that he would have acted as he has with each of them (e.g., "He might have AA, and if he did, he'd have done that half the time, or he might have KK, in which case he'd always do that, ...", etc.) Not that I ever analyze a hand that precisely in practice ... or even know what my opponent would do that precisely. But what interests me about this hand is that it seems obvious (more obvious than in most of the hands Damo has posted) that the optimal strategy against a perfect opponent is a mixed one: you should call with a certain proability and raise with a certain probability. What those probabilities are, I have no idea ... it's far too complex ... and against a real-life opponent at the $10 level, you can almost certainly do a lot better than the theoretically optimal strategy, and you may well be right (against many opponents) that going all in is the way to do this. Is there a poll option for game theorists where we can assign probabilities to each option? :D

[daftpegasus]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove

cheers - I did indeed dwell on it and called with about 3 seconds to go anyhoo the turn is a 9 so i now have an absolute lock as I very much doubt Vicky has 99 with me having A9, something like a Q,J or 10 might have been better if she is playing a mid-hi PP, so am not expecting any action and she bets again! is this the time to raise because Ican't see her betting the river if I call again here? Damo Seat 4: Vicky9 (4535.00) Seat 7: robilaruk (4280.00) Vicky9 post SB 100.00 harry1 post BB 200.00 ** Deal ** robilaruk [Ad, 9d] *** Bet Round 1 *** robilaruk Raise to 600.00 Vicky9 Call 600.00 *** Flop(Board): *** : [As, Ac, Ah] *** Bet Round 2 *** Vicky9 Bet 800.00 robilaruk Call 800.00 *** Turn(Board): *** : [As, Ac, Ah, 9h] *** Bet Round 3 *** Vicky9 Bet 1200.00 Hero??????

Vicky has put 2600 chips into this pot leaving her with approx. 1900 if she folds here. She's close to being pot committed and has little fold equity left. With over 50% of her chips in the pot only a really good player will fold at this point. As for what action you take - I don't think it matters. There are arguments for and against the call or the All In. Vicky's either a very loose player who's just lost most of her chips on a brave attempt to bluff at the pot, or she's got a pocket pair, probably in the range of KK - 1010. I suspect the later. Personally I'd probably call to see if she hangs herself on the river. If she checks the river then it's a Bet in the region of 1000 chips in the hope that she bites (a minimum raise stinks of the nuts in that situation to me, hence the 1K bet). If she folds and gets away from the hand then you're a massive chip leader and I would NOT show my hand. You have to leave the element of doubt in there that you could have just played a fantastic bluff.

[Tweetypie05]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove I'm with DP - call again on the turn and bet out half her stack on the river if she checks... she has been very obliging up to now and has committed alot of her chips already that she may even decide to bluff the pot on the river with an ALL-in or big bet. All that said I might put in a min-raise on the turn to ask the question and of course at this point she might think she has the outs to call that she won't have on the river. To be honest it really depends on how this player has been playing previous hands, how she sees you and what she has... is she aggressive on the turn/river if she senses weakness? I think for specific types of players (and specific palyers) there is an optimal play but without that read the best tactic is either call or min-raise IMO.

[Pocket Lady]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove raise here - she won't think that you have an A as you would have raised or called quicker ( :hope).

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove thanks all - I am finding this very interesting - its easier to know what to do with position against someone betting for you (like Vicky) - its more tricky to know what to do OOP when someone has declined to continue betting at you (part XXXII). I figured that as I had a complete lock now with no 'outs' at all for her (i.e. hoping she hits quads) the best thing to do would be call and see what she did on the river and use position. She predictably checked OOP so i put a feeler bet in - just enough to get her to hopefully call, because at this stage I am convinced for has a mid-high PP and she obligingly did! Cheers all, lots of very very interesting comments made:ok Damo *** Turn(Board): *** : [As, Ac, Ah, 9h] *** Bet Round 3 *** Vicky9 Bet 1200.00 robilaruk Call 1200.00 *** River(Board): *** : [As, Ac, Ah, 9h, 6s] *** Bet Round 4 *** Vicky9 Check robilaruk Bet 600.00 Vicky9 Call 600.00 *** Showdown *** : Rake: 0.00 Total Pot: 6600.00

[daftpegasus]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove

thanks all - I am finding this very interesting - its easier to know what to do with position against someone betting for you (like Vicky) - its more tricky to know what to do OOP when someone has declined to continue betting at you (part XXXII). I figured that as I had a complete lock now with no 'outs' at all for her (i.e. hoping she hits quads) the best thing to do would be call and see what she did on the river and use position. She predictably checked OOP so i put a feeler bet in - just enough to get her to hopefully call, because at this stage I am convinced for has a mid-high PP and she obligingly did! Cheers all, lots of very very interesting comments made:ok Damo *** Turn(Board): *** : [As, Ac, Ah, 9h] *** Bet Round 3 *** Vicky9 Bet 1200.00 robilaruk Call 1200.00 *** River(Board): *** : [As, Ac, Ah, 9h, 6s] *** Bet Round 4 *** Vicky9 Check robilaruk Bet 600.00 Vicky9 Call 600.00 *** Showdown *** : Rake: 0.00 Total Pot: 6600.00

So what cards did she have?

[GaF]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove I may be being greedy, but I'd be disappointed not to have stacked Vicky here - if my maths is right, she had about 1300 chips left at the end - if she'd put in 3200 in, she'd probably have put 4500 in if I'd given her the chance......

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove

So what cards did she have?

no idea she called and mucked - it doesn't show on the HH Damo

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove 2600 so far (600+800+1200), leaves her about 2000 - I think a shove here and she folds - a smallish bet of about a third of her stack which leaves her a 'playable' stack gets a call - any more than that and she has to either shove or fold - my feeling was that she would fold Take you point tho GaF Damo

I may be being greedy' date=' but I'd be disappointed not to have stacked Vicky here - if my maths is right, she had about 1300 chips left at the end - if she'd put in 3200 in, she'd probably have put 4500 in if I'd given her the chance......[/quote']

[GaF]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove

I think a shove here and she folds

Which is why you maybe needed to put a bet in on an earlier street ;)

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove

Which is why you maybe needed to put a bet in on an earlier street ;)

that would be raising the turn then - so how much - a min raise or more? Damo

[GaF]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove To be honest, I've lost track of stack/pot sizes a bit - bet needs to be big enough to not SCREAM monster, so not a min raise - probably about half the pot. (I dont know what that leaves you)

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part XXXIII) - call raise or shove

To be honest' date=' I've lost track of stack/pot sizes a bit - bet needs to be big enough to not SCREAM monster, so not a min raise - probably about half the pot. (I dont know what that leaves you)[/quote'] on the turn she bets 1200 - which leaves her 2K - so any raise puts her AI effectively after my flop call and then raise turn would that be a bit suspicious to you if you were in Vicky's position? would you fold you JJ at that point not knowing for sure if I had the Ace or 'just' KK-88 etc? personally I prefer the 'steal' bet on the end, just enough to get her to call, but not enough to make her fold I suppose I could have raised the flop, but unless she thinks I am bluffing I can't see her calling there, and I can't see here calling any other bets I make turn or river if she does call the flop raise - she might of course think i am bluffing (who would raise with an Ace etc? :eek) and re-shove AI, but with her betting at me I thought positional play would be best, expecially after her turn bet as well, she might have bluffed at the end if she thought I did have a smallish PP and might fold to her 'obvious' Ace (well that was what I was hoping for, so I went to plan B instead!). tricky one this, trying to extract as much as poss with a lock hand cheers:ok Damo