AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th)

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W. Bulldogs	vs	St. Kilda
Carlton	vs	Collingwood
Geelong	vs	Richmond
Brisbane Lions	vs	Kangaroos
Adelaide	vs	Port Adelaide
Melbourne	vs	Sydney
Hawthorn	vs	Essendon
West Coast	vs	Fremantle

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Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th)

Overall Standings
#	Team	P	W	L	D	For	Agt	%	Pts
1	Geelong	17	14	3	0	1936	1225	158	56
2	Kangaroos	17	12	5	0	1632	1512	107.9	48
3	Port Adelaide	17	11	6	0	1823	1604	113.7	44
4	West Coast	17	11	6	0	1591	1401	113.6	44
5	Hawthorn	17	10	7	0	1561	1413	110.5	40
6	Collingwood	17	10	7	0	1538	1540	99.87	40
7	Sydney	17	9	8	0	1557	1336	116.5	36
8	Essendon	17	9	8	0	1717	1776	96.68	36
9	St Kilda	17	9	8	0	1398	1480	94.46	36
10	W.Bulldogs	17	9	8	0	1706	1840	92.72	36
11	Brisbane	17	8	8	1	1592	1436	110.9	34
12	Adelaide	17	8	9	0	1451	1336	108.6	32
13	Fremantle	17	7	10	0	1665	1696	98.17	28
14	Carlton	17	4	13	0	1683	2257	74.57	16
15	Melbourne	17	3	14	0	1403	1886	74.39	12
16	Richmond	17	1	15	1	1476	1991	74.13	6

Match Totals
			Quarters				Halves
#	Team	W	L	D	WR%	W	L	D	WR%
1	Geelong	50	17	1	74	27	6	1	79
2	Kangaroos	41	25	2	60	20	14	0	59
3	Port Adelaide	37	29	2	54	18	16	0	53
4	West Coast	38	28	2	56	22	10	2	65
5	Hawthorn	34	33	1	50	18	13	3	53
6	Collingwood	34	32	2	50	16	16	1	48
7	Sydney	37	29	2	54	23	10	1	68
8	Essendon	32	36	0	47	15	17	2	44
9	St Kilda	32	33	3	47	15	19	0	44
10	W.Bulldogs	27	38	3	40	12	21	1	35
11	Brisbane	36	32	0	53	16	18	0	47
12	Adelaide	35	32	1	51	17	15	2	50
13	Fremantle	31	35	2	46	17	16	1	50
14	Carlton	20	48	0	29	10	24	0	29
15	Melbourne	26	40	2	38	9	25	0	26
16	Richmond	21	44	3	31	9	25	0	26

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Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th)

Quarter Averages
			For				Against
	Team	¼	½	¾	FT	¼	½	¾	FT
1	Geelong	32	27	26	28	17	18	18	19
2	Kangaroos	27	23	23	23	19	22	18	31
3	Port Adelaide	28	25	31	23	25	24	20	25
4	West Coast	25	23	21	24	20	19	24	19
5	Hawthorn	18	23	25	26	21	23	20	19
6	Collingwood	21	26	22	21	26	22	23	20
7	Sydney	21	21	22	28	24	19	20	16
8	Essendon	25	24	25	26	23	30	28	23
9	St Kilda	20	22	22	18	25	18	21	23
10	W.Bulldogs	28	23	23	26	34	23	24	28
11	Brisbane	24	22	25	23	22	20	21	21
12	Adelaide	25	20	20	20	19	20	22	17
13	Fremantle	24	22	26	26	26	19	28	26
14	Carlton	29	21	28	22	31	32	34	36
15	Melbourne	19	20	20	24	30	28	27	26
16	Richmond	24	20	20	23	29	25	32	31

Scoring Statistics
			Avg Score		Avg Margin		Total Score		Round Total
	Team	For	Agt	Win	Lose	High	Low	High	Low
1	Geelong	114	72	54	13	222	69	3	0
2	Kangaroos	96	89	23	31	147	54	1	1
3	Port Adelaide	107	94	38	34	163	60	2	0
4	West Coast	94	82	37	36	158	62	0	1
5	Hawthorn	92	83	34	27	180	31	1	2
6	Collingwood	90	91	19	28	122	56	2	1
7	Sydney	92	79	37	14	162	44	1	1
8	Essendon	101	104	18	27	127	74	0	0
9	St Kilda	82	87	24	38	125	43	0	5
10	W.Bulldogs	100	108	23	43	141	57	1	1
11	Brisbane	94	84	52	32	163	35	2	2
12	Adelaide	85	79	32	16	110	57	0	1
13	Fremantle	98	100	33	26	173	58	2	0
14	Carlton	99	133	17	49	141	39	3	2
15	Melbourne	83	111	18	38	124	57	0	1
16	Richmond	87	117	49	38	124	65	0	0

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Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th)

Margin Breakdown - Basic
			U 15.5		O 15.5		U 39.5		O 39.5
	Team	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
1	Geelong	1	1	13	2	5	3	9	0
2	Kangaroos	2	1	10	4	11	3	1	2
3	Port Adelaide	2	0	9	6	6	5	5	1
4	West Coast	4	1	7	5	7	5	4	1
5	Hawthorn	2	1	8	6	8	6	2	1
6	Collingwood	3	3	7	4	10	6	0	1
7	Sydney	1	3	8	5	5	8	4	0
8	Essendon	6	1	3	7	8	7	1	1
9	St Kilda	2	1	7	7	7	4	2	4
10	W.Bulldogs	1	2	8	6	9	4	0	4
11	Brisbane	1	1	7	7	3	6	5	2
12	Adelaide	1	4	7	5	6	9	2	0
13	Fremantle	1	3	6	7	4	8	3	2
14	Carlton	2	2	2	11	4	6	0	7
15	Melbourne	1	4	2	10	3	6	0	8
16	Richmond	0	2	1	13	0	10	1	5

Margin Breakdown - Detailed
			1-19 pts		20-39 pts		40-59 pts		60+ pts
	Team	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
1	Geelong	3	2	2	1	4	0	5	0
2	Kangaroos	5	2	6	1	0	1	1	1
3	Port Adelaide	5	0	1	5	3	1	2	0
4	West Coast	4	1	3	4	0	0	4	1
5	Hawthorn	2	4	6	2	1	0	1	1
6	Collingwood	5	5	5	1	0	0	0	1
7	Sydney	2	7	3	1	2	0	2	0
8	Essendon	6	2	2	5	0	1	1	0
9	St Kilda	4	1	3	3	2	3	0	1
10	W.Bulldogs	2	2	7	2	0	2	0	2
11	Brisbane	1	1	2	5	3	1	2	1
12	Adelaide	3	5	3	4	1	0	1	0
13	Fremantle	2	4	2	4	2	1	1	1
14	Carlton	3	4	1	2	0	1	0	6
15	Melbourne	2	4	1	2	0	5	0	3
16	Richmond	0	5	0	5	1	3	0	2

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Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) Will adjust my initial post with the odds once they are published on the site i usually get them from :ok

[Ashtee]

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) Not sure he held it that well actually... Either way, it's nowhere near as good as young Newton's from last week. Best mark for the last 5 years, let alone this one!! Another crap week on the cards...getting to the end now, books under-pricing all the obvious favs... Do like Saints @ 1.30 tho. Looks value, depsite Dogs getting West and maybe Grant back. Carlton + a heap could be worth a shout too...or did I learn my leson last week about taking bad teams with big spreads... Crows not without a chance if we look at Port's last SEVEN, they have all been against crap D's...Melbourne, Richmond, WC @ a millionth strength, Dogs, Brisbane (a game they got EXTREMELY lucky in), Ess, Carlton...a game they lost even! Yeah, admittedly took a terrible team last week that I certainly shouldn't have...but Crows look set to at least keep this close, if not get the win. Will hopefully get the Crows + a couple of goals or so. Hawthorn win. Would like 1.80. Freo/WC buck their history and this game is a dead-set shoot-out, shuold be a good over at a good number... ...oh, and will be taking Richmond/Geelong over any number as well. btw, what the hell was Sheedy on about in his after game press conference?? Sounding a lot like the terminator...I didn't get it... ...mind you I have had Kev at a cricket dinner of mine to inspire us leading into the finals...didn't bloody understand him then either! Very strange man...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th)

...getting to the end now' date=' [b']books under-pricing all the obvious favs...

Exactly Taza ... so why not back the flip side? I'm thinking of backing Carlton, Richmond, Melbourne, all to win. P.s. I'm serious, and yes I'm bating for an argument (if I get time :D). Took a shorty also :D. On Freo at 3.60. Edwards did control the mark in my book (second camera showed best replay). Just jarred loose when he hit the ground.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) If you switch to channel 501 right now, you can see Collingwoodn't getting absolutely throttled in a Grand Final. GREAT VIEWING.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) Did it say which year As? Cos we have been in quite a few, unlike your team. :lol Since you are living in the past Ash see if 501 have any old footage of Collingwood winning 4 flags in a row back in the late twenties...Enthralling viewing and only team ever to win for in a row in the then VFL, even the mighty Lions could only win 3 in a row. Another record Collingwood hold that won't be beaten. :dude Don't forget to post when 501 has your team actually playing a Grand Final, I won't hold my breath waiting though. I can see why you are cynical about the mighty Pies, cos your team can't even make Grand Finals :lol

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) It's one of the really funny ones, bjv - 1980. LOL when Collingwood hit the post twice in first quarter. :rollin

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) TazaD - West didn't train and probability is he wont play. Grant looks set. I agree on Hawks and if Adelaide get Rutten back I'll be on them too. Other then them might have to look at the lines.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) I'm eying the price on Adelaide also, koi. Bit of a watch on selections though - played two rookies last week, so do they keep them or go back to experience. Roo, Rutten, Porplyzia all possibly back from injury. Reilly in doubt worries me a little. I'd imagine they'll get a strong squad in? As Taza pointed out, should note that Port, as flashy as they've been, have played trash the last three (and that includes WCE).

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th)

Exactly Taza ... so why not back the flip side? I'm thinking of backing Carlton, Richmond, Melbourne, all to win. P.s. I'm serious, and yes I'm bating for an argument (if I get time :D).

No argument from me! I'm with you on this value idea...I just like it better in theory! :lol ...esp. after watching Melbourne do what-ever the hell they did last week... ...and also considering of course that neither of those teams actually want to win. :wall (Carlton look like geting about 40 tho!!...that seems a little odd to me...)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) Yeah, the selection table is well worth waiting on with these potential tanking clubs. It's all been said before but wish they'd hurry up and fix the current draft system. For example, Brisbane, who on playing list had claims to bottom two spot, because they are so well run and coached, get little reward, but a club who's coach lost the players (Carlton) can get all the draft picks.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) St. Kilda look decentvalue @ 1.30 on Friday night...although taking them on the -21 h'cap doesn't interst me in the least. They've won just 1 game out of their last 10 by more than 17...and that includes sneaky wins over Richmond and Carlton last week. They are a team who genuinely worry the Dogs tho. Strong defensive midfield and a big forward line. Have won the last 2 meetings by 50 (1 this season), and in the first game this year Dogs had Cross, Griffen and Gilbee all playing well. Both teams scoring numbers are very similar both for in the dome and for the last 5 games, but Saints midfield and defense both significantly better. Can't see them dropping this one with finals now a distinct possiblilty. Impossible to take Collingwood @ 1.10! In fact I was quite prepared to take the Blues +32.5...until I saw they are playing 2 more rookies. End of season rubbish...teams don't want to win, and the books are hugely under-pricing the obvious favs. Last week showed Collingwood have some serious problems...but Carlton's defensse doesn't look like turning around, so Rocca might get a kick. Staying away. Geelong/Richmond...moving on! 1.04 and -52.5! I'll be taking the over somewhere I dare say. But who could possibly take those odds?! Brisbane. 1.70. Kangaroos still doing nothing wrong, but it's been a long time since their last "good" win. Brisbane have had an amazing last 5 weeks...av'ing nearly +14 I50's, score at 1.75 and allow 2.18! Now that does include Melbourne and Carlton games...but they have won @ West Coast (even if they weren't at full strength), they dominated the game v. Port and should have won easily, and then there was last week! Kangas won the first meeting, but it was at the Gold Coast. Pretty sure Brisbane get some revenge with a win in this one. I still think Port are being over-rated. Was pretty stupid taking the worst team in the AFL against them last week...and I don't think I'll go against them here either. Would have liked Crows +20ish, but Roo out again, and even if Rutten comes back, who will he play on? Tredrea out and it's been Port's small forwards doing all the damage. I still suggest that Port's last 7 games have all been against either crap team or lucky wins. Steering clear. Melbourne don't want to win. Not that it would matter if they did, 'cause lord are they poor!! I'll be taking the 1.10 for the Swannies! Again, not totally interested in the -40 odd, given that the game is at Canberra and not the SCG. Still, Melbourne's defense has been astoundingly bad all season. They've allowed over 30 shots in each of their last 6 games... ...and I tell you what, 8.50 for the highest scoring team (Swans) isn't the worst thing I've seen!!! Hawks are good value @ 1.82 aswelll imo. Obviously losing 3 of their best players before the game last week hurt badly...and on the flip side Essendon got the Crows without 2 of their most important. Ess av. -7 I50's in their last 5 and -7 at the 'G, Hawthorn been super defensively all year. Their problem lately has been scoring, but Essendon have allowed 30+ shots in 5 of last 6. The Hawks won the first meeting this season comfortably with 10 more shots and 17 more I50's!! I think the odds for Freo/WC are about right. Obviously a bit tough to get a decent read on the Eagles now they are back to full strength...but not sure how much to take last week into consideration given Dogs had 6 of their top 10 players out. What I do think we'll see is a much higher scoring game than these two traditionally produce. Only Melbourne and Carlton have worse D's than these two teams in the last 5 games! (1.76 each) There's nothing that suggests to me that Freo can win, but -21.5 is a little much and So, taking a couple of multis this week: St. Kilda/Brisbane/West Coast (3.03) Hawthorn/Sydney (2.00) and will have an eye out for Geelong/Richmond and Freo/WC totals.

[DeMMa]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) Nice Write up! Friday: Im jumping on OVER - Hoping for 182 + --- Saturday: Geelong -52.5 (Only 9 goals - easy) Sunday: Hawks (If Franklin, Mitchell are back?)

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) TEAMS ROUND 18 WESTERN BULLDOGS v ST KILDA Friday, 7.40pm AEST, Telstra Dome WESTERN BULLDOGS B: Jordan McMahon, Brian Harris, Dale Morris HB: Andrejs Everitt, Tom Williams, Ryan Hargrave C: Farren Ray, Scott West, Nathan Eagleton HF: Daniel Giansiracusa, Brad Johnson, Robert Murphy F: Shaun Higgins, Chris Grant, Jason Akermanis FOLL: Luke Darcy, Adam Cooney, Matthew Boyd I/C: Daniel Cross, Sam Power, Wayde Skipper, Stephen Tiller EMG: Jarrod Harbrow, Josh Hill, Andrew McDougall In: Cross, Grant, West Out: Jarrod Harbrow, Josh Hill, Cameron Wight ST KILDA B: Leigh Fisher, Max Hudghton, Matt Maguire HB: Jason Gram, Sam Fisher, Steven Baker C: Robert Harvey, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna HF: Xavier Clarke, Nick Riewoldt, Shane Birss F: Stephen Milne , Fraser Gehrig, Justin Koschitzke FOLL: Matthew Clarke, Nick Dal Santo, Luke Ball I/C: Jayden Attard, Jason Blake, Aaron Fiora, Sam Gilbert EMG: Chad Jones, Brett Voss, Raphael Clarke In: Koschitzke Out: Michael Rix (omitted) CARLTON v COLLINGWOOD Saturday, 2.10pm AEST, MCG CARLTON B: Jordan Russell, Bret Thornton, Michael Jamison HB: Ryan Jackson, Paul Bower, Heath Scotland C: Andrew Carrazzo, Kade Simpson, Shaun Grigg HF: Ryan Houlihan, Jarrad Waite, Bryce Gibbs F: Marc Murphy, Brendan Fevola, Brad Fisher FOLL: Cain Ackland , Adam Bentick, Eddie Betts I/C: Jordan Bannister, Luke Blackwell, Setanta O’hAilpin, Jason Saddington EMG: Mark Austin, Dylan McLaren, Ross Young In: Bentick, Grigg, Jamison Out: Matthew Lappin (hamstring), Simon Wiggins (hamstring), Anthony Koutoufides (retired) New: Michael Jamison (Newlyn/North Ballarat) COLLINGWOOD B: James Clement, Simon Prestigiacomo, Harry O’Brien HB: Heath Shaw, Shane Wakelin, Ben Johnson C: Martin Clarke, Scott Burns, Ryan Cook HF: Nick Maxwell, Anthony Rocca, Alan Didak F: Dale Thomas, Travis Cloke, Dane Swan FOLL: Josh Fraser, Shane O’Bree, Leon Davis I/C: Guy Richards, Ryan Lonie, Tarkyn Lockyer, Tyson Goldsack EMG: Paul Medhurst, Shannon Cox, Rhyce Shaw In: Clement, Cook Out: Scott Pendlebury (foot), Paul Licuria New: Ryan Cook (Dandenong Stingrays) BRISBANE LIONS v KANGAROOS Saturday, 7.15pm AEST, Gabba BRISBANE LIONS B: Joel Macdonald, Daniel Merrett, Jason Roe HB: Jed Adcock, Josh Drummond, Joel Patfull C: Tim Notting, Nigel Lappin, Cheynee Stiller HF: Wayde Mills, Jonathan Brown, Troy Selwood F: Rhan Hooper, Matthew Leuenberger, Jared Brennan FOLL: Jamie Charman, Simon Black, Luke Power I/C: Ashley McGrath, Colm Begley, Robert Copeland, Michael Rischitelli EMG: Matthew Moody, Mitchell Clark, Scott Harding No change. KANGAROOS B: Shannon Watt, Michael Firrito, Glenn Archer HB: Daniel Pratt, Jesse Smith, Jess Sinclair C: Brady Rawlings, Daniel Harris, Shannon Grant HF: Brent Harvey, David Hale, Daniel Wells F: Corey Jones, Drew Petrie, Scott McMahon FOLL: Hamish McIntosh, Adam Simpson, Andrew Swallow I/C: Kasey Green, Aaron Edwards, Eddie Sansbury, Djaran Whyman EMG: Leigh Brown, Ed Lower, Lindsay Thomas In: Wells Out: Brown ADELAIDE v PORT ADELAIDE Saturday, 7.10pm CST, AAMI Stadium ADELAIDE B: Graham Johncock, Scott Stevens, Kris Massie HB: Andrew McLeod, Nathan Bock, Jason Torney C: Martin Mattner, Simon Goodwin, Nathan van Berlo HF: Brett Burton, Ian Perrie, Chris Knights F: Scott Welsh, Ken McGregor, Nick Gill FOLL: Ben Hudson, Tyson Edwards, Scott Thompson I/C: Robert Shirley, Ivan Maric, Richard Douglas, Jason Porplyzia EMG: Michael Doughty, Luke Jericho, Bryce Campbell In: Douglas, Porplyzia, Shirley Out: Bryce Campbell, Michael Doughty, Brent Reilly (glute) PORT ADELAIDE B: Michael Pettigrew, Toby Thurstans, Jacob Surjan HB: Michael Wilson, Troy Chaplin, Peter Burgoyne C: Kane Cornes, Shaun Burgoyne, Nathan Lonie HF: Danyle Pearce, Daniel Motlop, David Rodan F: Nathan Krakouer, Justin Westhoff, Brett Ebert FOLL: Brendon Lade, Chad Cornes, Domenic Cassisi I/C: Travis Boak, Dean Brogan, Alipate Carlile, Adam Thomson EMG: Greg Bentley, Nick Lower, Josh Mahoney No changes MELBOURNE v SYDNEY SWANS Sunday, 1.10pm AEST, Manuka Oval MELBOURNE B: Ben Holland, Nathan Carroll, Ryan Ferguson HB: Daniel Bell, Brad Miller, James Frawley C: Brad Green, James McDonald, Paul Wheatley HF: Nathan Brown, Russell Robertson, Simon Godfrey F: Byron Pickett, David Neitz, Matthew Bate FOLL: Jeff White, Brock McLean, Nathan Jones I/C (from): Brent Moloney, Simon Buckley, Michael Newton, Daniel Ward, Aaron Davey, Jace Bode, Mark JamarIn: Pickett, Davey, Bode, Jamar, Carroll Out: Colin Sylvia (groin), Cameron Bruce (hamstring) SYDNEY SWANS B: Kennelly, C Bolton, Malceski HB: Bevan, Goodes, Mathews C: Ablett, Kirk, Buchanan HF: O'Keefe, O'Loughlin, McVeigh F: Schneider, Hall, Davis Foll: Jolly, J Bolton, Fosdike I/C (from): Brennan, Dempster, Everitt, Grundy, Laidlaw, Richards, Schmidt In: Ablett, Dempster, Laidlaw Out: - HAWTHORN v ESSENDON Sunday, 2.10pm AEST, MCG HAWTHORN B: Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham, Campbell Brown HB: Grant Birchall, Trent Croad, Rick Ladson C: Jordan Lewis, Sam Mitchell, Joel Smith HF: Chance Bateman, Lance Franklin, Shane Crawford F: Richard Vandenberg, Simon Taylor, Jarryd Roughead FOLL: Robert Campbell, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell I/C (from): Tim Boyle, Ben Dixon, Beau Dowler, Xavier Ellis, Ben McGlynn, Travis Tuck, Clinton Young In: Boyle, Ellis, Franklin, Mitchell Out: Murphy ESSENDON B: Dustin Fletcher, Mal Michael, Andrew Welsh HB: Adam McPhee, Patrick Ryder, Mark Johnson C: Brent Stanton, Jobe Watson, Nathan Lovett-Murray HF: Jay Nash, Scott Lucas, Damien Peverill F: Jason Winderlich, Matthew Lloyd, Andrew Lovett FOLL: David Hille, , Henry Slattery, Mark McVeigh I/C (from): Ricky Dyson, Kepler Bradley, Chris Heffernan, Jason Laycock, Angus Monfries, Adam Ramanauskas, Courtney Johns In: Fletcher, Lovett, Heffernan, Johns Out: Scott Gumbleton WEST COAST v FREMANTLE Sunday, 2.40pm WST, Subiaco WEST COAST B: Brent Staker, Darren Glass, Adam Selwood HB: Beau Waters, Adam Hunter, Brett Jones C: Andrew Embley, Chris Judd, Michael Braun HF: Daniel Chick, Ashley Hansen, Tyson Stenglein F: Mark LeCras, Quinten Lynch, Mark Seaby FOLL: Dean Cox, Ben Cousins, Daniel Kerr I/C (from): Chad Fletcher, Shannon Hurn, Rowan Jones, Matt Priddis, Matt Rosa, Will Schofield, David Wirrpanda In: Fletcher, Rosa, Wirrpanda Out: - FREMANTLE B: Roger Hayden, Luke McPharlin, Scott Thornton HB: Daniel Mundy, Antoni Grover, Heath Black C: Matt Carr, Josh Carr, Michael Johnson HF: Dean Solomon, Matthew Pavlich, Jeff Farmer F: Ryan Murphy, Chris Tarrant, Paul Hasleby FOLL: Robert Warnock, Ryan Crowley, Peter Bell I/C (from): Marcus Drum, Paul Duffield, Andrew Foster, Shaun McManus, Byron Schammer, Brett Peake, Daniel Gilmore In: Murphy, Warnock, Foster, Peake, Schammer Out: Aaron Sandilands (hernia), Des Headland (inj)

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) Look at Adelaides changes. No confidence backing them now. Massive INS for bulldogs, but I still think St Kilda will beat them.

[DeMMa]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) Nervous on UNDER or OVER 204.5 WBD/Saints

[DeMMa]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) Now with West, Grant, Cross in.. Hrmm thinking of WBD

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) Bulldogs v Saints

It’s the end of the line for the loser of this game and the loser wouldn’t deserve to make it anyway. The Dogs have met the 2 best teams in the comp. in the last fortnight at their weakest. With West, Cross and Grant back in the line-up at least gives them a fighting chance to compete against the Saints. The Bulldogs starts have been a feature of their season, but 2 and 3 goal opening quarters doesn’t win them any games. But once again, I see the Dogs getting blown away by St. Kilda’s talls. The Saints are getting good supply into their forwards and are starting to score well, but they did not impress last weekend and will miss Luke Ball. A better showing by the Dogs is expected but the Saints will be too strong.

Blues v Magpies

After a terrific showing last week, the Blues front up this week with their weakest team for the year. Injuries for Carlton equals uncompetitive. The initial buzz after the Pagan dismissal will receive a reality check once the Pies are done with them. The Pies needed a kick in the pants before the finals, but last week’s effort was as bad as any defeat they’ve had in the Malthouse era. However, their percentage should return to pre-Brisbane levels after dispatching the ‘tankers’ in the next 3 weeks. Only Fevola and Waite stand in the way off a hiding with the Pies dominant all over the field with Rocca and Cloke expected to kick plenty of goals.

Crows v Power

It’s the last stand for the Crows to try to pinch a spot in the finals. They won’t find it easy against a Port Adelaide team full of confidence. However, the Crows can apply the clamps to free-running midfields and Port fit that bill. Even though Port have been kicking huge scores in the past month, their forward line doesn’t look that good without Tredrea there and one the slightly deficient Crow defence could cope with. The head to head record is also damning for Port over the last few years. I’m confident the Crows can hold the Cornes and Burgoyne boys through the midfield and kick a winning score against a suspect Port Adelaide defence.

Hawks v Bombers

This clash always produces something special, but a lot rides on the result of this one. The Hawks have been down a little in the last month, but have faced up to some decent teams and come of second best. Their midfield hasn’t been as accountable and as a result putting pressure on their defence. Mitchell and Crawford are in doubt for the game which won’t help their cause. The Bombers are hanging onto the coat tails of the top 8 courtesy of all those narrow victories through the mid-season. Fletcher and Lucas are in doubt and the Bombers recent record at the MCG is woeful. The Hawks handled the Bombers easily in their first meeting and although I’m expecting a tighter tussle, the Hawks must prevail.

Number of players missing from best 22’s

3 – Essendon, Geelong, Kangaroos, Sydney, West Coast 4 – Brisbane, Hawthorn 5 – Adelaide, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, St.Kilda 6 – Carlton, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs 7 – Richmond 8 – Melbourne

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

Western Bulldogs 76-107 ST.KILDA Carlton 70-90 COLLINGWOOD GEELONG 117-63 Richmond BRISBANE117-97 Kangaroos

ADELAIDE 84-124 Port Adelaide

Melbourne 67-109 SYDNEY

HAWTHORN 84-83 Essendon WEST COAST 94-87Fremantle

Suggested Bets

ST.KILDA Margin 1-39 ADELAIDE Margin 1-39 HAWTHORN Win

Have a good weekend on the punt.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) Ok, who out there predicted the 85-85 draw between the Doggies & Saints tonight? :lol

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) All I know is its a dream come true for Brisbane.

[DeMMa]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) LOL Thoughts Cats game Pies Game?

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) Rush of money being put on Hawks. Moved into 1.70 at some bookies.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th)

All I know is its a dream come true for Brisbane.

And me!! It obviously got to the point where I really didn't want to see the Doggies lose that one...never want to lose $$... ...perfect result! :loon Collingwood/Carlton over 197.5 (2.00 @ Lass), 203.5 (2.20) Cent, anyone? The all new defensive Blues still allowed 31 shots and had a 212 game against a slow moving, super defensive Saints last week. Collingwood had been playing pretty well defensively, but a 60 shot game last week put an end to that. The only game Carlton have had under 209 in the last 10 games is a 191 v. Adelaide! The last 6 meetings (all at the MCG) have been 204 or more. Is a goal worth 10%? (er, 20% would I believe?!) Also Geelong/Tiges over 200.5 (1.90) or a cover of 191-211 and 1.91 for over 211.5... Hmmm. Wish Centebet would hurry up and throw up some lines for that game. Too much to think about! ;)

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) From July 9th,

Just for the record...I went thru the ladder and this is what I came up with...

1	Geelong	22	18	3	1	2399	1805	74	132.9
4	Collingwood	22	15	6	1	2111	2003	62	105.3
6	Adelaide	22	14	6	2	1983	1793	60	110.5
2	West Coast	22	13	6	3	2068	1868	58	110.7
3	Hawthorn	22	14	7	1	2092	1925	58	108.6
10	Sydney	22	14	8	0	1975	1834	56	107.6
7	W Bulldogs	22	11	8	3	2244	2243	50	100.0
5	Kangaroos	22	11	9	2	2110	2107	48	100.1
9	Port Adel	22	11	11	0	2146	2174	44	98.7
12	St Kilda	22	9	11	2	1910	2021	40	94.5
8	Essendon	22	9	12	1	2194	2233	38	98.2
11	Fremantle	22	9	13	0	2183	2179	36	100.1
13	Bris Lions	22	7	13	2	1945	2061	32	94.3
15	Melbourne	22	4	18	0	1967	2289	16	85.9
16	Richmond	22	3	17	2	2019	2378	16	84.9
14	Carlton	22	4	18	0	2212	2645	16	83.6

(Didn't bother with margins, just win/loss...)

There's also a few 'draws' in there that I think are tough to predict...

Dogs/WC @ TD. Dogs/St. K @ TD. Brisbane/Roos @ 'Gabba (although Kangas still haven't lost to a team outside the 8, right Bjv :ok ) Kangas/WC @ TD. Geelong/Crows @ Geelong (neither here nor there really) St. K./WC @ TD Dogs v. Hawthorn @ TD Coll v. Crows @ TD. (Again, means not much anyway...)

So....Dogs only have to win 1 of the 3 iffies to make it (WC, St. K., Hawks)...provided they win this week of course. I've got the Roos making it regardless (with 12 wins), with Port and Ess definately out, and the Saints the only rough chance if they win both games v. Doggies and WC.

Interesting that we both have Collingwood in 2nd, and the same top 4. :clap

Now, to go check for some decents odds...on something! :unsure

Oh, I see a real chance that Richmond don't finish on the bottom tho...Seen Carlton as high as 12.00, Melbourne 8.00...

TazaD , you are an absolute legend. I hope you had something on it.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) LOL!!! Thanks, BC! ...was only about 80 points off the first one tho... :$ :lol Threat of some rain driving up the prices on these overs...liking it!

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) I'm all over Collingwood (-30.5) @ 1.91 Also going with some value in a close one for the showdown (Adelaide vs Port) Either team under 15.5 @ 3.50 Anyone have thoughts on the Ross Glendinning and Showdown medal? Pretty much a lotto but can be some fun.