GaF Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 You're playing a MultiTableTournament - it is winner takes all. In which Scenario(s) below do you think you hold maximum tournament equity? (this isn't a quiz - I dont have an answer, though I know which way I would answer and am curious if it is a widely held belief :unsure). Assume all players are of equal ability. Scenario 1 Your Stack 1,500 Chips Total Chips in Play 150,000 Chips Opponents left 100 Blinds 10/20 Scenario 2 Your Stack 1,500 Chips Total Chips in Play 150,000 Chips Opponents left 2 Blinds 10/20 Scenario 3 Your Stack 1,500 Chips Total Chips in Play 150,000 Chips Opponents left 100 Blinds 100,000/200,000 Scenario 4 Your Stack 1,500 Chips Total Chips in Play 150,000 Chips Opponents left 2 Blinds 100,000/200,000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity Is it a winner takes all situation? Edit: Disregard, I just read it again :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity Scenario 2 for me.... I have an M of 50(?) and only one opponent. With that amount of play I believe I could gauge them and play them and have a good chance of breaking them. One of the difficulties you encounter in MTT's are the different types of player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity Probably all about the same, assuming this is the only information you have and everything else (e.g., what position you are in right now relative to the blinds) is random. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity Scenario 2 for me.... I have an M of 50(?) and only one opponent. With that amount of play I believe I could gauge them and play them and have a good chance of breaking them. GaF specified that all players were of equal ability, so your opponent will be just as good at gauging you as you are at gauging them. Is there a reason that you think this will benefit you, as the short stack, more than it benefits them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity The best example I can give is happened quite a while ago. Pene and I were HU at the end of a tourney and I knew that we both had each others game nailed. I turned my game on its head completely and was well ahead before Pene realised. I don't think I would have won quite so comprehensively had I not done so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity Well for Scenario 4 it's pretty simple to calculate a rough figure. With the blinds so high, and with only 2 players you will both be all in every hand. Therefore you need to win every hand until you have 150,000 chips. Any loss and you're out (except for hand 7): Hand 1 (50% likely to win 3000) Hand 2 (25% likely to win 6000) Hand 3 (12.5% likely to win 12000) Hand 4 (6.25% likely to win 24000) Hand 5 (3.13% likely to win 48000) Hand 6 (1.56% likely to win 96000) Hand 7 (0.78% likely to win 150000) So, it looks like the EV for that one is 0.78%. There is however the possibility of losing hand 7 and still going on to win as you will be the big stack at that point. I suspect that the EV added as a result of that will bring the whole EV for the situation up to 1%. That generalisation is based largely on something I read (either by Harrington or Sklansky, can't remember where) that you're EV in a tournament is directly proportional to your stack size all other things being equal. Scenario 1 & 3 I would expect to have the same expected value of 1% since all players are equal we all have the same expected value in the tournament. For # 2 I've no real logical way of breaking it down, however based on the other 3 and what Sklansky/Harrington figured out I'd say your EV is 1.00% in that too. So all are equal in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity The best example I can give is happened quite a while ago. Pene and I were HU at the end of a tourney and I knew that we both had each others game nailed. I turned my game on its head completely and was well ahead before Pene realised. I don't think I would have won quite so comprehensively had I not done so. Valiant, That's a situation where both players are not equal, one (you) is exploiting the others (Pene's) playing strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity If all players go all-in every hand, there's a rather neat way to show that your chance of winning is exactly proportional to the size of your stack. Consider your expected number of chips at any future stage, given that you have some particular number now. To begin with, this is just the number of chips you start with. If everybody goes all-in blind every hand, then each hand you will on average break even, so your expected number of chips never changes. Now consider your expected number of chips a week next Thursday. By this time, the tournament will be over (at least, there's a virtually 100% chance that it will be). So you'll either have all the chips or none of them. So your expected number of chips is just the probability that you win times the total number of chips in play. So if you start with 1% of the chips, your expected number of chips is always 1% of the total, and so a week next Thursday you have a 1% chance of having won and a 99% chance of having lost. Sklansky and Malmuth claim that your chance of winning is always proportional to your chip stack (assuming all players have equal ability), though I don't know if they think this is exactly true. In "Tournament Poker for Advanced Players", Sklansky gives two "proofs" of this, but they didn't convince me. Having said that, I suspect it is approximately true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity number 2 for me. Dont know why though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted July 30, 2007 Share Posted July 30, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity maybe Im the freak here but I will take option ONE before the others at every possible chance!!! In scenario 2 - your opponent has 100 times your chips and no matter how good you are I CANT see your luck holding out in a winner take all scenario Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodger Posted July 30, 2007 Share Posted July 30, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity From a simplistic mathematical point of view all four would seem to be of equal win probability, as detailed several times above. So it boils down then to being able to outplay the opponents, so the advantage must be with the 2 player games (it's got to be easier to read 1 opponent rather than 99) and the lower blind level one should allow you a little more leeway with regards to possibly making a mistake. So I also would go for scenario 2. Having said that of course, scenario 2 is also the least likely ever to exist in a game...unless there was a prize for ''first man out'' and 99 players (all except you) went all in on the first hand, leaving the winner against you on hand two! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NafYepmop Posted July 30, 2007 Share Posted July 30, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity Usining Independent Chip Modeling calculations in every scenario your chips are worth 1% of the prize pool. This calculation doesnt take into account player ability but with your assumption that every player has equal ability every scenario you hold the same tournament equity. However scenario 1 is the best scenario to be in to increase your tournament equity, as there is the most play. In the other 3 your going to probably be forced to be all in if you want to play a hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tweetypie05 Posted July 30, 2007 Share Posted July 30, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity Scenario 2... plenty of play and only 2 to beat. Scenario 1... plenty of play but 100 to beat... I would guess it would be close between these 2 but Scenario 2 appears better value to me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted July 30, 2007 Author Share Posted July 30, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity I share the view that there is no significant difference between them and you have very close to 1% equity in all 4 scenarios..... I dont believe there is a difference between being forced all in with a random hand because of high blinds, or low blinds giving you the chance to play your way out of trouble (because you have no edge over your opponent) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NafYepmop Posted July 31, 2007 Share Posted July 31, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity I dont believe there is a difference between being forced all in with a random hand because of high blinds' date=' or low blinds giving you the chance to play your way out of trouble (because you have no edge over your opponent)[/quote'] Thats true, all 4 scenarios are so unlikely to occur as you always likely to have an edge over a lot of the field. lol donkaments :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted August 5, 2007 Share Posted August 5, 2007 Re: Maximum Tournament Equity scenario 4 to hit the money as everyone is AI every hand regardless and you only have to beat 2 others to cash but in terms of play, scenario 1, as your chip stack to blinds is healthy however, you have loads of players to get through. I would choose scenario 4 Damo You're playing a MultiTableTournament - it is winner takes all. In which Scenario(s) below do you think you hold maximum tournament equity? (this isn't a quiz - I dont have an answer, though I know which way I would answer and am curious if it is a widely held belief :unsure). Assume all players are of equal ability. Scenario 1 Your Stack 1,500 Chips Total Chips in Play 150,000 Chips Opponents left 100 Blinds 10/20 Scenario 2 Your Stack 1,500 Chips Total Chips in Play 150,000 Chips Opponents left 2 Blinds 10/20 Scenario 3 Your Stack 1,500 Chips Total Chips in Play 150,000 Chips Opponents left 100 Blinds 100,000/200,000 Scenario 4 Your Stack 1,500 Chips Total Chips in Play 150,000 Chips Opponents left 2 Blinds 100,000/200,000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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