Ashtee Posted July 9, 2007 Share Posted July 9, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted July 9, 2007 Author Share Posted July 9, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) I'm likeing the prices on Collingwood, Essendon and Brisbane although a close watch on squads is obviously necessary. Essendon arn't at all outgunned as it may seem in IMO. Kangaroos is the one I'm real keen on. There's a lot of cockines in the odds as though it's simply conceeded Freo lose away/win home. Kangaroos were stale just prior to the break but have freshened up and are very good, much better than the lack of big margins suggests. Farmer out would be huge loss. McMahon is an isntant superstar and they have an extra potent forward line all of a sudden. Renowned strong travellers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted July 9, 2007 Share Posted July 9, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Collingwood and Kangaroos odds are sensational on exposed form. They must be joking about the Kangaroos surely. their form is impeccable and they travel well, and have not lost to a team outside the eight yet. Freo's form is poor at home as well as away. Would anybody seriously consider taking Freo at $1-44? You are even getting great odds about a margin bet. Kangaroos should be under $2-00 to beat Freo, get on! :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeMMa Posted July 9, 2007 Share Posted July 9, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Collingwood - 100% Jumping On! Cats streak will come to an end! Btw i am a Geelong member! I wanna win $$ so i will bet on Pies! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 10, 2007 Share Posted July 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Ahhhh...another case of big game pessimism... It's certainly not impossible for the Pies, but honestly, there isn't a lot of evidence that they can get over Geelong...is there?? I reckon the lines are all incredibly tight this week actually. Oh, the one 'funny number' I forgot to mention in the last thread, was that I happened to notice West Coast were 1.005 this week @ +24.5!! I couldn't for the life of me work out why you'd offer it, and who the hell would take it!!... ...for the sanity of the world, I hope no-one did.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted July 10, 2007 Share Posted July 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Overall Standings # Team P W L D For Agt % Pts 1 Geelong 14 11 3 0 1578 1026 153.8 44 2 West Coast 14 9 5 0 1259 1077 116.9 36 3 Hawthorn 14 9 5 0 1283 1134 113.1 36 4 Collingwood 14 9 5 0 1296 1218 106.4 36 5 Kangaroos 14 9 5 0 1316 1301 101.2 36 6 Adelaide 14 8 6 0 1165 1011 115.2 32 7 W.Bulldogs 14 8 6 0 1441 1446 99.65 32 8 Essendon 14 8 6 0 1409 1418 99.37 32 9 Port Adelaide 14 8 6 0 1352 1368 98.83 32 10 Sydney 14 7 7 0 1157 1052 110 28 11 Fremantle 14 6 8 0 1389 1373 101.2 24 12 St Kilda 14 6 8 0 1110 1221 90.91 24 13 Brisbane 14 5 8 1 1154 1252 92.17 22 14 Carlton 14 4 10 0 1436 1821 78.86 16 15 Melbourne 14 3 11 0 1185 1471 80.56 12 16 Richmond 14 1 12 1 1228 1569 78.27 6 Match Totals Quarters Halves # Team W L D WR% W L D WR% 1 Geelong 40 15 1 71 21 6 1 75 2 West Coast 32 22 2 57 19 8 1 68 3 Hawthorn 29 26 1 52 16 9 3 57 4 Collingwood 30 24 2 54 16 11 1 57 5 Kangaroos 31 23 2 55 15 13 0 54 6 Adelaide 32 24 0 57 16 11 1 57 7 W.Bulldogs 25 28 3 45 10 17 1 36 8 Essendon 26 30 0 46 13 14 1 46 9 Port Adelaide 26 28 2 46 12 16 0 43 10 Sydney 28 26 2 50 19 9 0 68 11 Fremantle 26 29 1 46 14 13 1 50 12 St Kilda 25 28 3 45 11 17 0 39 13 Brisbane 26 30 0 46 10 18 0 36 14 Carlton 17 39 0 30 9 19 0 32 15 Melbourne 23 31 2 41 9 19 0 32 16 Richmond 20 33 3 36 9 19 0 32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted July 10, 2007 Share Posted July 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Quarter Averages For Against Team ¼ ½ ¾ FT ¼ ½ ¾ FT 1 Geelong 31 28 27 26 18 18 18 20 2 West Coast 26 22 19 23 19 17 23 17 3 Hawthorn 19 22 26 25 21 22 19 19 4 Collingwood 22 26 23 23 25 21 21 20 5 Kangaroos 28 22 22 23 19 23 18 33 6 Adelaide 24 20 19 20 18 18 20 16 7 W.Bulldogs 30 23 24 26 33 21 24 25 8 Essendon 25 25 24 27 21 29 30 21 9 Port Adelaide 24 25 28 20 25 26 22 25 10 Sydney 21 18 19 25 24 19 17 16 11 Fremantle 24 22 26 27 25 19 28 26 12 St Kilda 20 20 21 18 24 18 22 23 13 Brisbane 20 22 22 19 25 21 22 22 14 Carlton 29 23 29 22 31 32 33 35 15 Melbourne 20 20 22 23 28 29 23 24 16 Richmond 23 21 20 24 28 24 30 31 Scoring Statistics Avg Score Avg Margin Total Score Round Total Team For Agt Win Lose High Low High Low 1 Geelong 113 73 54 13 222 69 3 0 2 West Coast 90 77 34 25 137 64 0 0 3 Hawthorn 92 81 32 28 180 31 1 2 4 Collingwood 93 87 18 17 120 66 2 0 5 Kangaroos 94 93 19 31 147 54 1 1 6 Adelaide 83 72 32 17 110 57 0 1 7 W.Bulldogs 103 103 22 30 141 57 1 1 8 Essendon 101 101 19 26 127 74 0 0 9 Port Adelaide 97 98 24 34 126 60 1 0 10 Sydney 83 75 29 14 118 44 0 1 11 Fremantle 99 98 34 24 173 58 2 0 12 St Kilda 79 87 32 38 125 43 0 5 13 Brisbane 82 89 32 32 136 35 1 2 14 Carlton 103 130 17 45 141 39 3 1 15 Melbourne 85 105 18 31 124 57 0 1 16 Richmond 88 112 49 33 124 65 0 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted July 10, 2007 Share Posted July 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Margin Breakdown - Basic U 15.5 O 15.5 U 39.5 O 39.5 Team W L W L W L W L 1 Geelong 1 1 10 2 4 3 7 0 2 West Coast 3 1 6 4 6 5 3 0 3 Hawthorn 2 1 7 4 8 4 1 1 4 Collingwood 3 3 6 2 9 5 0 0 5 Kangaroos 1 1 8 4 9 3 0 2 6 Adelaide 1 2 7 4 6 6 2 0 7 W.Bulldogs 1 2 7 4 8 4 0 2 8 Essendon 5 1 3 5 7 5 1 1 9 Port Adelaide 2 0 6 6 6 5 2 1 10 Sydney 1 2 6 5 5 7 2 0 11 Fremantle 1 2 5 6 3 7 3 1 12 St Kilda 0 1 6 7 4 4 2 4 13 Brisbane 1 1 4 7 3 6 2 2 14 Carlton 2 1 2 9 4 5 0 5 15 Melbourne 1 4 2 7 3 6 0 5 16 Richmond 0 2 1 10 0 10 1 2 Margin Breakdown - Detailed 1-19 pts 20-39 pts 40-59 pts 60+ pts Team W L W L W L W L 1 Geelong 2 2 2 1 4 0 3 0 2 West Coast 3 1 3 4 0 0 3 0 3 Hawthorn 2 3 6 1 0 0 1 1 4 Collingwood 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 5 Kangaroos 4 2 5 1 0 1 0 1 6 Adelaide 3 3 3 3 1 0 1 0 7 W.Bulldogs 2 2 6 2 0 2 0 0 8 Essendon 5 2 2 3 0 1 1 0 9 Port Adelaide 5 0 1 5 2 1 0 0 10 Sydney 2 6 3 1 2 0 0 0 11 Fremantle 2 3 1 4 2 1 1 0 12 St Kilda 1 1 3 3 2 3 0 1 13 Brisbane 1 1 2 5 2 1 0 1 14 Carlton 3 3 1 2 0 1 0 4 15 Melbourne 2 4 1 2 0 4 0 1 16 Richmond 0 5 0 5 1 1 0 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted July 10, 2007 Share Posted July 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Collingwood and Kangaroos odds are sensational on exposed form. They must be joking about the Kangaroos surely. their form is impeccable and they travel well, and have not lost to a team outside the eight yet. Freo's form is poor at home as well as away. Would anybody seriously consider taking Freo at $1-44? You are even getting great odds about a margin bet. Kangaroos should be under $2-00 to beat Freo, get on! :drums Totally agree Beejayville. Another thing worth noting is the Kangas form over Freo at this venue. Since the Dockers entered the league in 1995, these clubs have met 6 times at Subiaco with Kangaroos winning 4. While it may be a tough ask for them to win, i believe they will cover the line easy. Cant get over $1.44 for the Freo win :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted July 10, 2007 Share Posted July 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Here are some interesting stats from the season so far... - Carlton won 1 of 14 final quarters - Geelong won 12 of 14 first quarters - Hawthorn/Essendon both won 10 of 14 final quarters - Essendon won only 3 of 14 second quarters - Sydney won 12 of 14 second halfs - Bulldogs only won 4 of 14 second halfs - Geelong have won 11 of 14 first halfs - Richmond have lost 10 of 12 games under 39.5 - Geelong average winning margin is 54 points - Carlton averagins 130 points per game, 138 away from home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted July 10, 2007 Author Share Posted July 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Geelong V Collingwood Heard radio commentator last week saying Geelong have peaked too early and for that reason he likes West Coast for the flag. I disagree. Geelong have only just been plodding the last month IMO. They were somewhat lucky against both Adelaide and Essendon. I feel the let down loss this week isn't so much on the cards and they'll be very much UP for it. Just the second game at the G for cats. Collingwood a tough nut to crack makes them the overpriced of the two IMO, at this early point in time. I notice the 2.72 at Pinnacle is gone but if that price appears again I'd probably try them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 10, 2007 Share Posted July 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Last 5 games for the Saints and Crows are interesting...almost identical I50's (52-49 each), almost identical scoring (2.29 - 2.27), but St. Kilda defense has fallen away (1.89) whereas the Crows has stepped up to 2.35. (Interesting to see that they've played 3 common teams in those last 5 games too!) Saints score better in the dome, av. 4 more I50's and 2 goals more. As I've mentioned before, Adelaide play a much freer game away from home, av'ing nearly 12 more I50's per away game! (6 more themselves, 6 more against). Neither team going all that well, imo...both just 2 wins of their last 5. Crows deserve to start favs, but don't think I can take them here in that role. Will hopefully get a nice low total, given it's a Crows game! Will be looking for an over at around the 160 mark...time will tell. Bit pointless looking at stats as far as Geelong are concerned!! They lead just about everything. Collingwood 4th best D over last 5 games, Geelong best... ...the Cats do av. about 6 less shots per game outside...although I guess that has to be tempered somewhat by the Brisbane and Sydney games that were in the pouring rain. Still, with both teams' D on fire, and plenty at stake this should be a low scorer. I'll be looking for an under, not sure whether I'll get what I want, but hoping for 180ish. Geelong deserve to be 1.50 favs, but yeah, not great value either way imo. (Although, pick a winner and take the 1-39, it won't be a blow out.) WC/Port?! How to get a handle on this one. WC without Kerr and possibly Judd. Despite gong just 2/5 (and 3 of last 8!), theiur numbers aren't too bad. Av'ing 5 more I50's than their opp, holding them to a shot every 2.09 for only about 22 shots per game!!... ...but as mentioned, their last 2 at home have been unusually poor. (It took me about 12 hours to get the lack of balls joke too Ash :$ ) Port av. -2 I50's and let teams score every 1.77 entries!!...the dif being that they score well themselves. Port actually av. +4 I50's at home this season tho, and without 2 keys for WC... No idea! One team that plays D but can't score, away to a team that scores lots but can't stop anyone. Interestingly Port have won 8 of 10 meetings, 4 of the last 6 they were 'dogs, inc/ last season winning easily @ home as 'dogs. 2.25 looks ok for Port now I think about it...2.75 for 1-39 even better! :ok Nothing in the stats overall for the Dogs/Essendon...nothing in them inside the Dome (Ess -6 I50's to -1, but play far better D than the Dogs)...but last 5 is pretty telling... Dogs -1 I50...Ess -10!! Dogs score 1.73 entries, Ess 2.02...Again tho, Ess play better D, but with Fletcher out and likely McVeigh (who I'd suggest would have got Johnson) can they keep that up? Tough one with so many people missing from both sides. I do think the Dogs win, but was horrified to see 1.50...now down to 1.40 even!! :puke Will have to think seriously about taking Ess +15.5 or better I think... ...the over looks a given, but I'm sure the number will be stupidly high. Melbourne going slightly better than Brisbane in their last 5, but Brisbane at home are better again. I don't thinnk they deserve to be 1.50 favs, but not brave enough to touch Melbourne. We all know Sydney/Carlton will be a joke, but 1.15? No thanks. Swans love the SCG, winning and covering 8 of theri last 10. They hold teams to a shot every 2.5 entries (about 70ppg), and av. about 9 more shots per game! Carlton defense at an all time low...allow a shot every 1.61 entries in theri last 5 (worst by a fair way!), and about 140 ppg. I wanted -26.5 or better. Woin't get it. Oh well... Swans did win at home last season by 92... Tigers!...Starting to enjoy them in this dog/spoiler role! Haven't lost any of their last 7 games by more than 25. Hawks lask of scoring power looks a worry, esp. without Boyle. Their last 5 games have all been won well by their midfield (+8, holding teams to 44), but their scoring has dried up (2.06 overall, 2.17 now), and their D has too! (1.98 down to 1.85) Richmond are on the improve, overall stats of -7.5 I50's score 1.95, allow 1.75...now into -4, 1.82 and 1.83. The MCG suits them better, as turnovers don't hurt as bad...they are 1-6 there this year, but the losses were only by an av. of 20. Interested...+23.5 will make me even more interested... Kangas +16.5 or better should be available I think. Freo have won their last 4 at home...but a closer look shows it's all been down to conversion! Either they kick straight (21.11 v. Carlton...in a game they statistically lost!), or the opp kicks badly (Saints 6.19 in a very even contest). At home this season they av. -1 I50 and 1 less shot than their opp..Kanga av. +1 and 1 more shot this season! Last 5 is all very even. Kangas scoring has dried up a bit, but Freo have allowed 25+ shots in 8 of their last 9 and 34, 31, 31, 27 and 28 in their last 5! Somewhat ironically, the Dockers won this meeting at home last year by 35 points...in a game where the teams had 19 shots each! Straight kicking in the AFL is a fleeting thing at best these days...the numbers suggest a close game in general play, so let's hope the scoreboard reflects it! :ok Will know more when the spreads appear, but currently looking at Tiges and Roos +...Swans - at a decent number, and could be talked into Essendon + with a big enough number. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Quality write up as usual Taza, brilliant in fact. With the Swans/Carlton, definately look at the Swans to cover. Sydney are a team that have always troubled Carlton, they are our biggest bogey team in the whole league. They have won the past 9 straight against us and they are usually pretty big margins, and the way our defence is this year and with Hall returning, this could be another flogging. Such are Sydney our bogey team that in season 1995 where we won the flag and lost only 2 games for the entire season, 1 was against Sydney by 72 points if i remember and they finished in the bottom 4 that year :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Thanks Ads...getting a bit cautious in my old age I think... Being fairly specific with the numbers I want, and pretty disappointed to see that I don't think I'll get any! Essendon +15.5 @ a couple of places, but that's the one I'm least sure of. Kangas +15.5 @ Lasseters, but would like that extra point. Richmond and Sydney won't get close to what I wanted. Might have a 'fun' multi with Richmond +24.5, Sydney -24.5, Ess +24.5 and Kangas +24.5 @ ~6.70. Still hoping for a total or two to come my way, but other than that, looks a quiet weekend. Port been crashing in all morning, news of Judd out?? Anyway, good luck guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) I know your figures suggest Essendon are in with a shot, but the question is how will they perform with up to 6 senior players missing this round from last weeks match. Dustin Fletcher & Mark McVeigh will miss through suspension. James Hird & Alwyn Davey will not play with serious injuries, while Tom Hislop and Paddy Ryder were injured and would have to be in some serious doubt. Will be interesting to see how Essendon address this because thats a quarter of their team out. The Dogs have some problems of their own with West out and Grant likely to miss, but i think this is a match ill stay right away from Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted July 11, 2007 Author Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Simply the price is too high on Essendon ads (2.90). Gotta take WBD as the fave in tipping comps but Essendon have some good ins as well and this game is no one way street. I'm still contemplating it but likely bet on Essendon at this stage. Lasseters have Kangaroos +10.5 @ 2.10 which surely should be worth a thought. Kangaroos Under 24.5 @ 4.50 or Under 39.5 @ 3.65 look options. I may take a bit of each and the 3.00 SU. Having both Farmer and Peake missing earlier had hurt them heaps, so looks like Freo go in the same way again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Interesting betting market ive just noticed with Sportsbet which they have open for Geelong. How many of the following will happen this season for Geelong: Ablett Brownlow, Premiership, Selwood rising star winner, Geelong VFL flag One - $1.45 Two - $7.50 Three - $23.00 Four - $67.00 None - $4.00 Dunno what i would go, i think two would offer some good value. Selwood is playing some decent football at the moment and is a very good chance for the rising star, while the premiership looks like heading to the cattery too such is their form at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted July 11, 2007 Author Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Yeah, saw that one ads. Somwhere between none and all, I'd say :D. Intended dropping something on Selwood earlier in the year when he was a longshot. Very strong field but Scott McMahon (Kang) @ 81.00 Sportsbet wouldn't be a stupid bet at present. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted July 11, 2007 Author Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Gary Ablett has heavy bout of flu according to channel seven news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted July 11, 2007 Share Posted July 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Anyone know what Geelongs form is like in the wet weather? Fair chance this will be a very wet, slippery and cold affair and Geelong play alot of their football in doors at the Telstra Dome. Be interesting to see how they perform in these conditions on the big ground that is the MCG. Some serious value on Collingwood in my opinion considering they dominated Geelong to the tune of 102 points in the corresponding fixture last year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miguel_hamburglar Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Gary Ablett looks like missing this week with the flu. Waiting to confirm tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) St Kilda vs Adelaide The Saints season almost appears over now, they are two games outside the eight plus percentage and require 7 wins from their remaining 8 games to be a good shot of making the finals. On the other hand, the Crows season is just starting to come together. Adelaide ruthlessly destroyed 2nd placed Hawthorn last round to the tune of 71 points in a dominating display and as their long list of injured players return to fitness in coming weeks, they will only get stronger. Their only injury concern out of last round was young forward Justin Porplyzia who strained a hamstring and is likely to miss a week, possibly two. Ian Perrie may return this week from injury which will be a big boost. St Kilda got through last round without any concerns and Aaron Hamill will face a fitness test this week in his bid to return to the team from long term injury. Amazingly St Kilda have only ever beat Adelaide once at this venue in 5 attempts. Last 5 Head to Head: St Kilda 3, Adelaide 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) From Above table Freo/Roos Freo have only beaten one team in the Top 8, yet Kangaroos who are in the eight, have not lost to anyone outside Top 8. Kangaroos at almost $3-00 is great value Port/Eagles Port have beaten 4th and 5th team in Top 8, and Eagles have only beaten 4th, 5th and 6th. Eagles have Kerr out, Judd under an injury cloud, and not playing that well. Treadrea back to a bit of form and Port played well last week against Dogs. Port at $2-28 at home look good value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Anyone seen Sydney's injury list, apart from Jared Crouch who will be back next week probably, they dont have one single injured player. I reckon with a fresh team and full squad to choose from, they will be very dangerous on the run home towards the finals and then another appearence in a Grand Final. Watch this space... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Port at $2-28 at home look good value. It sure did 3 days ago!! :wall Lucky to get 2.10 anywhere now.:( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koi_saisei Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Eagles debuting two new kids this week. Injury list keeps getting longer and are forced to play Judd with an injury. Huge value on Port considering they also have a good record against the Eagles. But with an amazingly young team maybe this could be a chance for the older players to get back into form - namely Hunter, Selwood and Lynch. But I'd say grab Port at evens before it goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted July 12, 2007 Author Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) It sure did 3 days ago!! :wall Lucky to get 2.10 anywhere now.:(2.05 at Davidson. I suggest get on before it goes. Considering Judd is below par at present I have player ratings (out at 10) Port ave 5.91 and WCE 5.5! Port should be clear fave to win this off their double travelling fade out last week. * Wilson & Ebert listed as injured out of last weeks game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BURNTUA CRISP Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) There are plenty of 50/50 games this week in round 15, which will seriously affect the finals race. Geelong can seal top spot if West Coast are beaten, and second spot could open right up for up to 5 teams if the Eagles falter. Percentage will be a vital factor and could mean the difference between a double chance and no home finals. The Crows travel to the Dome having won 8 of their last 10 at the venue and scoring 100+ 8 times as well. Their midfield worked perfectly last week even though they were given far too much latitude by the Hawks and their defence was superb. The Saints have their full complement in the midfield and have been solid since the break. Adelaide’s defence will only allow the Saints to kick 12-13 goals whilst the Crows should notch another ton and win comfortably. Geelong vs. Collingwood earns match of the year status and rightly so. They should both finish in the top two at season’s end. The Cats have been unsettled this week not being allowed to train at their home base and a few injury concerns as well with the Ablett brothers in doubt. They weren’t that impressive last week and only steamrolled the Bombers when they ran out of legs and numbers. The Pies just keep rolling along taking scalps at will and doing enough to get over the line. Both teams look pretty evenly matched and the Pies are the value, but I’ll be guided by Gary Ablett’s availability before making a move. My only note on the Port v West Coast game is that on the last 9 occasions West Coast have gone to AAMI, the game total has been under 180. The Lions appear to be the best bet of the round against the Demons at the Gabba. They were super against the Eagles and shouldn’t feel too threatened by what the Demons bring to the table. The Lions are only averaging 11 goals a game in their last 5, but are starting to score a bit better at home. They are a 4 goal better team at home. The Demons have a lot players injured and I’m not sure how competitive they’ll be for the rest of the season. The odds on the Bombers are a joke. The Bulldogs have their 3 best midfielders missing and won’t be able to control Lloyd and Lucas. Watson and the Johnsons will dominate the stoppages with Cooney being gloved by Peverill. There are serious consequences for the loser of this game, seeing they have difficult fixtures to finish the year. Essendon have beaten better teams than the Bulldogs in the last 6 weeks with only Fletcher and Hird missing. Cannot ignore the $2.90 on offer for the Bombers and will fall over the line like they usually do. The Sunday games look pretty straight forward with the game at Subiaco holding the most interest. The Dockers are slow starters at home winning just 2 of their 7 first quarters. However, they are a 6 goal better team at home. The Kangaroos are gliding under the radar and are in a great position to push for a top 4 finish. Winning this game will guarantee a finals spot, but a bad loss places them under pressure to keep their spot in the 8. The Dockers have to keep winning to make the finals and have the forward structure to make things difficult for the Roos. The Dockers should win by 5 goals. In summary, you could do worse than backing Collingwood and Essendon to win because surely one of them will salute and you’ll pocket a nice profit. They might both win. We’ll find out in the fullness of time. Number of players missing from best 22’s 2 – Kangaroos 3 – Carlton, Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney 4 – Adelaide, Essendon, St.Kilda, Western Bulldogs 5 – Brisbane, Collingwood, Richmond 6 – Fremantle, Port Adelaide 7 – West Coast 8 – Melbourne Score Predictor & MY TIPS St.Kilda 87-103 ADELAIDE GEELONG 109-88 Collingwood PORT ADELAIDE 90 -72 West Coast ESSENDON 97-113 Western Bulldogs Melbourne 82-87 BRISBANE SYDNEY 105-77 Carlton HAWTHORN 96-84 Richmond FREMANTLE 113-80 Kangaroos Suggested Bets ADELAIDE Points (-13.5) BRISBANE Points (-17.5) FREMANTLE Margin 1-39 Good luck this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) Wow! Crows/Saints total set FAR higher than I expected! Almost tempted by the under now!... ...na, relaxing night away from the game it is... I see Essendon out to +16.5 a fair bit. Really is getting silly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koi_saisei Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) West Coast actually have 9 of their best 22 out at the moment. 10 if Judd is a late withdrawal. Cant believe the value on Port. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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