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AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22)


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Figured I'd fire up a new thread, given the old one had last week's dates... Firstly a quick round up of the weekend... Essendon surprised me with their game plan. As the most defensive minded team over the last 6 weeks they decided they could out-gun Port 1-1...a fair enough thought given Port's defensive efforts recently!!...but er, at about 8 goals to 1 and Port doing it easily, you think you'd change it up, Kev? Flooding the whole team back midway in the 3rd was WAY too little too late... Port looked good!...easy game for them tho, but so is Brisbane next week...could be one to look out for again?? Geelong!...the best team going 'round atm. 61-37 I50's...kicked against the wind in the first (after winnning the toss!!!!), and still got the job done in super impressive style. Very good team. Brisbane. Aren't. Dogs got lucky. Like most (all?) shoot-outs, the team who kicks the straightest wins. Was a game of Russian Roulette...as open as you like. Bad signs for the Dogs, as now 2 weeks in a row their defensive pressure has been ZERO!! 55-63 I50's, 31 shots to 35... Expect them to start favs v. the Kangaroos next game, and expect them to lose. :wall Oh, the Roos...50-51 I50's...32-33 clearances...played the game well enough, just missed a LOT of easy shots, and a 3 goal burst in the last 2 minutes made the result look far worse than it was. Expect them to start 'dogs v. the Dogs next game, and expect them to win. :wall Carlton got smashed. Expect them to start 'dogs for the rest of the season, and expect them to lose! ;) Right...with (out actually! :lol) the express written concent of Bjv, I feel obliged to say the following... ...Collingwood are a masive chance, and well worth a shot on the spread. (This statement does not necessarily reflect the views of the author or publication) Looks to me like a dog weekend...well, first couple of games anyway... Richmond +15.5ish... Overall, the numbers of these teams are pretty similar...BOTH teams av'ing 46 I50's per game, Richmond allowing 54, Melbourne 55... ...you'd think that would have changes recently?...well, yes...in Richmond's favour! The last 5 show Richmond with a semi-respectable 46-51...Melbourne blown out to 46-57!! Even in last week's win they had 9 less entries than Collingwood...but poor effciency up forward cost the 'Pies...more to the point when O'Brien went down they had no-one to cover Robertson. The other factor is in the ruck. Richmond have been god-awful in the ruck, but surprisingly, Melbourne have been almost as bad...47-89 effective hitouts for the year...16-48 in their last 5!!! (Richmond 18-41) As I mentioned earlier, I50's identical...efficiency almost the same...both score about the same (obviously!)...the slight advantage to Melbourne in defense (1.85 to 1.71 overall, and 1.89 to 1.69 in the last 5)...but can a Melbourne forward line minus Nietz take advantage? Melbourne won in a stinker last year by 18 points...but had 4 less I50's...they managed to hold Richmond to a score just every 2.88 entries, which you'd have to suggest is very unlikely this season. Melbourne are every bit as bad as Richmond, and I think the price has a bit of "Carlton" about it...2 wins, and suddenly they are a good team??!! Nope. Better than Richmond? Maybe....more than 2 goals better? ... can't see it. Collingwood +16.5ish would look great...but have they got a defender in the house??? (Bjv...you over 6 ft tall and willing to whack some heads, my man?) Clement looks likely to miss again. No Presti, O'Brien... Still...I'll be pretty keen on them...I know I've questioned the Magpies' wins before, but a look at Sydney results so far... Wins v. WC here (yeah, not bad I guess...but WC have since been poor away from home a lot!) ...Richmond, Brisbane, Melbourne, Port and Doggies... As I mentioned last week, in the win over Hawthorn, they were statistically smashed...in fact in the last 5 games, Collingwood +4 I50's, Sydney -1... ...now this has to be tempered somewhat by Collingwood's draw too...last 5 have been Carlton, Dogs, Freo, Brisbane, Melbourne... ...but head-to-heads show a good match-up for the 'Pies. Last 4 at this venue have been 2-2, with Sydney wins by just 6 and 1, and a Collingwood win last year by 13 as 2.40 'dogs... ...in fact the av margin between these teams in their last 9 meetings is just 12 ppg!! Would love Clement to play...can Wakelin, Maxwell and (likely) Cox do the job?... ...the way the Sydney forwards are playing, I'd have to think they might. Again, in what looks like a very even game, nearly 3 goals will be huge...will snap up +16.5 in a flash! Eagles/St.Kilda....er, did I say a 'dog week?...although, given a 6 goal start it could be close! Obviously (to me anyway! :D) I'd prefer the under in this one...so will the books, but I'll do a Hermes here, and go as low as I can go! WC allow a super impressive 41 I50's a game at home!!...at an even more impressive 2.34 for about 60 ppg! Saints strong defensively, allow about 45 I50's pg, but can't score!! Outside the Dome they av just 44 I50s @ 2.23 (57 ppg!!)...last 5 almost the same (depsite playing 3 of those indoors!!!!) I think this one pans out like the Melbourne game...Saints simply won't have the ball/forward power to score (Saints 3.50ish for lowest score this week looks tremendous value!) but I wouldn't think the Eagles could score aswell as they did that day. Eagles win for sure...-34ish could be close...a score of 100-60 looks about right... ...make of that what you will ;)

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Re: AFL Rd. 12. (Wk 2) Interesting stat for the Syd-Coll game. The highest winning margin by either of these clubs this decade is 20 points, while 3 games have been decided by less than a kick. So fair to say we could be in for another epic if history is any guide. If the weather is damp, expect the winner of this match to take it out by Under 39.5 points for that extra bit of value

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Re: AFL Rd. 12. (Wk 2)

Carlton got smashed. Expect them to start 'dogs for the rest of the season, and expect them to lose! ;)
Just wait a week on that one, mate. They do play Freo next up. ;) :lol Simmonds is coming back through the MaGoo's, apparently, which I'm not at all unhappy about. I was hoping they wouldn't bring both him and Brown in at same time. Richmond definately the bet IMO - glad I took the 2.99 this morning. Melbourne have got some opp's at favourable times (even Kangas were stale, I felt) lately and the break interupts momentum. Richmond should have beat (blame the coach) Essendon and unlucky with just two on bench by half time against Freo. I feel if they get a sniff this time they'll grab it. I've seen this scenario many times over the years. Will Collingwood have the personell? Are Sydney about to start their run? Think they were 26.00 for flag at same point last season. Just trying to keep it positive in here :D. With any sort of luck Collingwood can get flogged. :D
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Re: AFL Rd. 12. (Wk 2) Tarrant will probably end up getting suspended by the club too for his effort on the weekend punching an official. Jeff Farmer was suspended for 6 weeks by the club for a similar incident earlier in the season, so you'd expect Taza to go too

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Re: AFL Rd. 12. (Wk 2) A stat I heard on the radio the other day was that Carlton have a blow out loss (10 goals or more) one in every four matches since they have been down the bottom of the ladder. Even as a Blues supporter I have to say that we have improved out of sight on the past couple of years, but everyone else has also kept on improving. With Brown coming back for the Tigers next week and Melbourne showing some fight, Carlton to take the spoon might not be a bad bet. This week I am going to have some $$$'s on the Pies at any line that is offered, while eveyone is talking up Sydney as being in the same position as the past two years I think they are lacking the disiplan and the run this season and I can see the Pies showing some real heart to stay in touch with the top 4. I doubt that Sydney will be able to move the ball inside 50 enough to hurt the Pies weak defence, and with Hall seemingly disinterested atm this could be a big match for the shape of the rest of the season.

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Re: AFL Rd. 12. (Wk 2) Pies record against Sydney, especially in Sydney is quite good. From all reports here it appears that Clement, Presty and definitely O'Brien will be out, so we may have trouble defensively holding the Swans forwards. Rhyce Shaw may also be out too, and he has been giving most of the drive from defence, along with Heath Shaw. Pies match up well everywhere with Sydney, and it is usually Kennelly that brains us, and he is out. So while we are a great chance as our record shows against the Swans, it's going to be hard with 3 key defenders missing. Everything in the Swans favour here.

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Re: AFL Rd. 12. (Wk 2) This is becoming frightening all the Blues supporters in here, Miguel. :lol I guess we can be thankful there's noone from Adelaide here - touch wood. Some of you may know what I'm saying. :lol Is Licuria back, bjv?

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Re: AFL Rd. 12. (Wk 2)

Collingwood

Player

Injury

Onset

Estimated Return

John Anthony

neck injury

Pre-season

Next season

Club doctors have advised him to return next season after injurying his neck in a preseason training collision.

Nathan Buckley

hamstring strain

Pre-season

Indefinite

Has reinjured his hamstring again and will certainly not play before the mid season break and a return may be indefinite.

James Clement

calf strain

Rnd 6

Rnd 12

Looks like missing again

Chris Dawes

knee injury

Pre-season

Rnd 18

May return after the mid season break.

Chris Egan

knee MCL

Rnd 8

Rnd 20

Injued an MCL and PCL in the VFL and will 12 weeks but will not require surgery.

Harry O'Brien

shoulder dislocation

Rnd 11

Rnd 15

Will have scans to determine the extent of the injury but will likely miss some time.

Simon Prestigiacomo

foot injury

Rnd 10

Rnd 14

Scans have revealed a stress fracture.

Sean Rusling

shoulder dislocation

Pre-season

Rnd 18

Has had shoulder reconstruction for instability episode in pre-season

Rhyce Shaw

hamstring strain

Rnd 11

Rnd 12

Very doubtful.

Sydney

Player

Injury

Onset

Estimated Return

Luke Ablett

rib cartilage

Rnd 10

Rnd 12

A late withdrawal with hamstring tightness although he also had a rib injury the week before which may be the actual reason.

Jared Crouch

hamstring strain

Rnd 9

Rnd 13

Grade 1 strain.

Darren Jolly

patella tendinopathy

Rnd 11

Rnd 12

Available.

Tadhg Kennelly

knee injury

Rnd 11

Rnd 16

Has bone bruising and will avoid an arthroscope.

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Re: AFL Rd. 12. (Wk 2)

Andrew Walker out for a month for the Blues with a shoulder injury.
Oh your kidding, thats a major blow to the Blues. He has been in the best form of his career this year and we'll miss him. Thats probably the end of our flag hopes now i reckon :sad
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Re: AFL Rd. 12. (Wk 2)

True' date=' our two-week resurgence was a bit silly really :lol[/quote'] Being English you would be used to losing Jeffers :lol Aussies kick the poms arse at Cricket, our horses win your Gold Cups at Ascot :rollin I reckon that's why you membered up at Carlton, cos you picked a side that was a perennial loser to stay with the habit. If you picked a side like Collingwood that simply lives to win, defeat is not in our dictionary, and we are the biggest and best football Club outside of England. You couldn't handle winning I don't reckon son, and you took the easy road! :dude
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Re: AFL Rd. 12. (Wk 2)

Being English you would be used to losing Jeffers :lol
Until you win your Rugby World Cup back in England, that's all you're gonna hear as a response to that. :ok
Aussies kick the poms arse at Cricket' date=' our horses win your Gold Cups at Ascot :rollin[/quote'] :lol:lol Kings Stand Stakes, get it right mate - your horses have always been better sprinters than ours :ok
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Re: AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22) :) On another note. I think the first two games are going to be very close. With Neitz out and N. Brown in for the tiger I might be taking Richmond on the hand-cap. Likewise as has been noted, with the historical closeness of games between Sydney and Collingwood (and hard to seperate form), you can't go wrong taking both sides to win by 1-19.

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Re: AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22) Jeffers, a comedian you are not! :drums If my coach said to me at three quarter time "It's got to be a do-or-die effort. It's got to be a determined effort. You've got to show me all the guts and determination you've got in your body. You've got to inspire me with this last quarter finish. You've been in front all day and you've got to stay there" and I looked around and my team mates were in Carlton jumpers, then I know we would definitely lose. But if I was in a black and white Collingwood jumper and my coach said the words "It's got to be a do-or-die effort. It's got to be a determined effort. You've got to show me all the guts and determination you've got in your body. You've got to inspire me with this last quarter finish. You've been in front all day and you've got to stay there" then a win would be assured because of the pride, the heart, the magnificence of the Magpies. Our courage alone would get us over the line. Ask Ads about Darren Millane and courage, they go hand to hand (dont ask him about anything else tho ;)). For Collingwood there is only one win that matters, it is beating Carlton, and if my memory serves me correctly we did that not too long ago. :notworthy

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Re: AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22)

:) On another note. I think the first two games are going to be very close. With Neitz out and N. Brown in for the tiger I might be taking Richmond on the hand-cap. Likewise as has been noted, with the historical closeness of games between Sydney and Collingwood (and hard to seperate form), you can't go wrong taking both sides to win by 1-19.
You can if one wins by 20 or more :rollin:rollin:rollin Sorry Koi, think the Englishman has me in an amusing mood :dude
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Re: AFL Rd. 12. (Wk 2)

Until you win your Rugby World Cup back in England, that's all you're gonna hear as a response to that. :ok Rugby is not considered a Sport over here :cheers :lol:lol Kings Stand Stakes, get it right mate - your horses have always been better sprinters than ours :ok Surely there was a gold cup to the winner??? ;) Yeah, Ads is 100% correct what he says about Collingwood fans. He described them to me, and said "who's that like in England?" I replied "Liverpool". That last comment sums it all up :rollinBiggest club, not won anything since what, 1990? :lol:lol But how big was 1990? The first AFL Grand Final. Another record by Collingwood. Have Carlton ever won 4 flags in a row? :dude
Back to football now...
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Re: AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22) Collingwood live to win? They have only won 1 flag in the past 49 years, must be a tough gig living...:$ Carlton have won 8 flags in the same 49 year time span. We've won 3 cups in the past 10 years if you include pre season trophies, so any argument Collingwood fans try to make has no substance whatsoever, especially given your well known as being the original 'Finals Chokers' Nothing worse than Collingwood fans crowing with nothing to back them up :wall

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Re: AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22) We'll have to set up a sepperate thread called 'Talking Carlton' soon as these AFL topics end up turning into Carlton discussions every week :lol Getting back to this weeks action, tommorow nights game between Melbourne/Richmond could be low scoring. Has been terrible weather in Melbourne all week with plenty of rain and freezing conditions. Cold and slippery conditions mean there will be plenty of skill errors, combine that to the fact its 15th vs 16th on the ladder and this will be a very scrappy game. It looks very very likely the winner of this game will win it by under 39.5 points so there is added value in this market. Not sure what the total game points line is but i think it will be an Under, these teams arent great scorers at the best of times, let alone these conditions.

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Re: AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22) Melbourne won just 43% of clearances in their last 5...Richmond 48%. Richmond -1% in contested possession...Melbourne -4% Kick/H'ball ratio very similar...Happy to be on Richmond +14.5, esp. given the conditions. Also on Collingwood +15.5...decided that Sydney winning by a point after the siren would be the best of both worlds...

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Re: AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22)

Friday 22 June 2007
HomeDrawAwaybookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="middle">sp.gifBPP
Richmond v Melbourne (10:40 BST)3.00 1.51100%
Saturday 23 June 2007
HomeDrawAwaybookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="middle">sp.gifBPP
Sydney v Collingwood (10:15 BST)1.51 3.05100%
Sunday 24 June 2007
HomeDrawAwaybookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="middle">sp.gifBPP
West Coast v St Kilda (07:40 BST)1.14 8.40100%
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Re: AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22) Teams for Round 12 Week 2 RICHMOND v MELBOURNE Friday, 7.40pm AEST, MCG RICHMOND B: Jake King, Will Thursfield, Joel Bowden HB: Andrew Raines, Graham Polak, Chris Newman C: Dean Polo, Shane Tuck, Richard Tambling HF: Kayne Pettifer, Matthew Richardson, Chris Hyde F: Nathan Brown, Cleve Hughes, Brett Deledio FOLL: Adam Pattison, Kane Johnson, Nathan Foley I/C: Matthew White, Cam Howat, Shane Edwards, Daniel Jackson Emerg:Greg Tivendale, Andrew Krakouer, Jack Riewoldt In: N Brown Out: K Kingsley (omitted) MELBOURNE B: Daniel Ward, Nathan Carroll, Ben Holland HB: Paul Wheatley, Clint Bizzell, Daniel Bell C: Cameron Bruce, James McDonald, Simon Godfrey HF: Brad Green, Russell Robertson, Aaron Davey F: Colin Sylvia, David Neitz, Matthew Bate FOLL: Jeff White, Brock McLean, Nathan Jones I/C: Paul Johnson, Ricky Petterd, James Frawley, Byron Pickett Emerg:Michael Newton, Nathan Brown, Adem Yze In: B Pickett Out: T Johnstone (Achilles soreness) SYDNEY v COLLINGWOOD Saturday, 7.15pm AEST, Telstra Stadium SYDNEY B: Ted Richards, Leo Barry, Sean Dempster HB: Adam Schneider, Craig Bolton, Ben Mathews C: Luke Ablett, Brett Kirk, Nick Malceski HF: Ryan O’Keefe, Michael O’Loughlin, Jude Bolton F: Nick Davis, Barry Hall, Amon Buchanan FOLL: Peter Everitt, Adam Goodes, Nic Fosdike I/C: Jarrad McVeigh, Darren Jolly, Paul Bevan, Tim Schmidt Emerg: Kristin Thornton, Heath Grundy, Matthew Laidlaw In: L Ablett Out: T Kennelly (knee) COLLINGWOOD B: Tarkyn Lockyer, Shane Wakelin, Nick Maxwell HB: Heath Shaw, Shannon Cox, Danny Stanley C: Scott Pendlebury, Paul Licuria, Ben Johnson HF: Brodie Holland, Travis Cloke, Alan Didak F: Dane Swan, Anthony Rocca, Josh Fraser FOLL: Guy Richards, Shane O’Bree, Scott Burns I/C: Dale Thomas, Tyson Goldsack, Leon Davis, Martin Clarke Emerg:Paul Medhurst, Sam Iles, Ryan Cook In: P Licuria, G Richards, S Cox, M Clarke Out: H O’Brien, C Bryan, P Medhurst, A Toovey New: Martin Clarke - 19, 182cm, 78kg; 2007 NAB AFL Rookie Draft. Recruited from County Down, Ireland WEST COAST v ST KILDA Sunday, 2.40pm WST, Subiaco WEST COAST B: David Wirrpanda, Darren Glass, Brett Jones HB: Beau Waters, Adam Hunter, Adam Selwood C: Matt Rosa, Matt Priddis, Michael Braun HF: Mitch Morton, Brent Staker, Tyson Stenglein F: Daniel Chick, Quinten Lynch, Mark Seaby FOLL: Dean Cox, Chris Judd, Daniel Kerr I/C (from): Steven Armstrong, Jaymie Graham, Shannon Hurn, Chad Jones, Rowan Jones, Mark LeCras, Mark Nicoski In: S Armstrong, J Graham, C Jones, M Nicoski, B Waters Out: Chad Fletcher (groin), Mitch Brown ST KILDA B: Jason Blake, Max Hudghton, Jayden Attard HB: Jason Gram, Sam Fisher, Leigh Fisher C: Aaron Fiora, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna HF: Robert Harvey, Nick Riewoldt, Xavier Clarke F: Stephen Milne, Justin Koschitzke, Brett Voss FOLL: Michael Rix, Nick Dal Santo, Luke Ball I/C (from): Steven Baker, Raphael Clarke, Matthew Ferguson, Fergus Watts, Sam Gilbert, Andrew Thompson, Shane Birss In: X Clarke, M Ferguson, L Fisher, R Harvey, F Watts Out: Brad Howard, James Gwilt, Fraser Gehrig (hand)

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Re: AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22) Malthouse does it again!!! There is going to be an Irishman at the Sydney/Pies match, and by jimeney it aint Tadgh Kennelly, it is the supposed most skilled Irishman of all, the Magpies Marty Clarke. Shannon may want to play in front of Barry Hall, cos not sure if Barry will like cox behind him all night :lol HB: Heath Shaw (30 games), Shannon Cox(5), Danny Stanley(1) C: Scott Pendlebury(20) HF: Travis Cloke(30) FOLL: Guy Richards(20) I/C: Dale Thomas(33) Tyson Goldsack(5)Martin Clarke(debut) Collingwood have a half back line of two players who havn't even played 10 games between them. We have Goldsack on the bench who has played about 5, and mighty Mick Clarke making his debut. Sydney has almost a full list, missing only a couple of players, they have barely a young kid playing. So in reality Collingwood should not even get close with 40% of young kids playing against 95% men who have competed in past 2 Grand Finals. This is really a no contest, Sydney are deserved favourites when you look at the two teams. If Collingwood can make a contest of it, if they can get close, then that's a fair effort in itself. If they can pull off an unlikely win, then it augers well for the future. It's all about 2008 and onwards dynasty for the Pies now :dude

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Re: AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22) Anyone else read that article on Matt Kreuzer on page 118 of todays Herald Sun?? Gee this kid sounds like he could be an absolute superstar :dude Now if all works out and Carlton dont win another game for the year and Richmond can win another 4 games, he is ours! :ok

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