Bedlam Posted May 4, 2007 Share Posted May 4, 2007 This system is based on the difficulty for bookies to price up the play-offs due to their unique nature & similarity in quality of the teams involved. How often does the most unfancied team, or the team that finishes lowest in the league go on to win the Play-offs? Last year my similar system entitled 'simple play-off system' achieved a yield of 93% of total stakes & a growth of start bank in e#cess of 81% Starting Bank 200pts First Bet..(with betfair) (25pts liability) Lay O#ford to win play-offs outright 12.5 pts matched @ 3.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 4, 2007 Author Share Posted May 4, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Betfair aren't running an outright market for Conference North & south, so I've backed the outsider in these markets. Farsley Celtic to win Promotion @ 7.0 (bet365) 10pts staked. Bishops Stortford to win promotion @ 6.5 (stanjames) 10 pts staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 8, 2007 Author Share Posted May 8, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Oxford are odds on to win over 90 mins tonight. Next Bet: Oxford v Exeter. Lay Oxford over 90 mins to win 15.62pts @ 1.8(betfair). (12.5pts liability). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 8, 2007 Author Share Posted May 8, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Betfair aren't running an outright market for Conference North & south, so I've backed the outsider in these markets. Farsley Celtic to win Promotion @ 7.0 (bet365) 10pts staked.:hope Bishops Stortford to win promotion @ 6.5 (stanjames) 10 pts :( staked. Bishops Stortford are out, but Farsley Celtic are still alive & are now priced @ 1.92 with the same bookies! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. pretty sure your on a winner here. also from a psychological point of view, teams that are considered favourites can find expectations higher and oppositions playing that extra percent harder - given that these teams are nearly always very close in abilities, it should help your system. good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Oxford are odds on to win over 90 mins tonight. Next Bet: Oxford v Exeter. Lay Oxford over 90 mins to win 15.62pts @ 1.8(betfair). (12.5pts liability). Nice one :ok (1-2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 9, 2007 Author Share Posted May 9, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Thanks for your support chaps. Last nights game produced two winning bets!! (25pts liability) Lay O#ford to win play-offs outright 12.5 pts matched @ 3.0:clap Oxford v Exeter:Lay Oxford over 90 mins to win 15.62pts @ 1.8(betfair:clap Producing total profit of 26.79pts (commision deducted) Current state of play with 1 bet pending: Starting bank 200pts Current bank 206.79pts total staked 57.50pts winning bets 2 losing bets 1 pending 1(farsley celtic) strike rate 66.66% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 9, 2007 Author Share Posted May 9, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. I've layed the following to win Promotion: West Brom @ 3.5 to win 10pts Nottingham Forest @ 3.0 to win 12.5 pts MK Dons @ 2.98 to win 16.62 (all 25pts liability) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 10, 2007 Author Share Posted May 10, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Yeovil v Nttn'm Forest: layed Yeovil to win 13.89 pts @ 2.8 (25pts liability) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 11, 2007 Author Share Posted May 11, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Yeovil v Nttn'm Forest: layed Yeovil to win 13.89 pts @ 2.8 (25pts liability):ok Another winner tonight. Saturdays Bets.. Southampton v Derby.Lay Southampton to win 20.49pts @ 2.22 Bristol Rovers v Lincoln.Lay Rovers to win 20.49 pts @ 2.22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 12, 2007 Author Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. A winner & a loser today.. Saturdays Bets.. Southampton v Derby.Lay Southampton to win 20.49pts @ 2.22:clap Bristol Rovers v Lincoln.Lay Rovers to win 20.49 pts @ 2.22:( Sunday Wolves v WBA. Lay Wolves to win 14.04pts @ 2.78 Oldham v Blackpool.Lay Oldham to win 14.02pts @ 2.76 Braintree v Salisbury.Lay Salisbury to win 25pts @ 2.0 All matched with betfair.Salisbury for e> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 13, 2007 Author Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. 2 out of 3 today.. Wolves v WBA. Lay Wolves to win 14.04pts @ 2.78 :clap Oldham v Blackpool.Lay Oldham to win 14.02pts @ 2.76:clap Braintree v Salisbury.Lay Salisbury to win 25pts @ 2.0:( State of play.. 6 winning bets 3 losing bets profit 19.23pts 5 bets pending. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 13, 2007 Author Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Monday Shrewsbury v MK Dons.lay shrewsbury to win 14.20pts @ 2.76 Farsley Celtic v Hinkley.lay Hinkley to win 17.86pts @ 2.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 14, 2007 Author Share Posted May 14, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. 3 winning bets from 2 mathes tonight... Shrewsbury v MK Dons.lay shrewsbury to win 14.20pts @ 2.76:clap Farsley Celtic v Hinkley.lay Hinkley to win 17.86pts @ 2.4:clap And........... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 14, 2007 Author Share Posted May 14, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Betfair aren't running an outright market for Conference North & south, so I've backed the outsider in these markets. Farsley Celtic to win Promotion @ 7.0 (bet365) 10pts staked. :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana Now we're cooking!! 92.06 pts profit tonight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 14, 2007 Author Share Posted May 14, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Tuesday Derby v Southampton.lay Derby to win 19.23 @ 2.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 16, 2007 Author Share Posted May 16, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Tuesday Derby v Southampton.lay Derby to win 19.23 @ 2.3:D Another winner last night! Wednesday WBA v Wolves. Lay WBA to win 25pts @ 2.0 Lincoln v Bristol Rovers.Lay Lincoln to win 19.84 pts @ 2.32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. A winner & a loser from the last two.. Next Bet: N Forest v Yeovil. Lay Forest to win 30.48pts @ 1.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. This is incedible, much better than even I anticipated..another two winners from one match.. Next Bet: N Forest v Yeovil. Lay Forest to win 30.48pts @ 1.8:D and... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. These two bets came in tonight too!! I've layed the following to win Promotion: Nottingham Forest @ 3.0 to win 12.5 pts:nana MK Dons @ 2.98 to win 16.62:nana (all 25pts liability) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. starting bank 200pts current bank 359pts(commision deducted) winning bets 14 losing bets 4 strike rate 77.77% profit 159pts Proving that the nature of the play-offs make them impossible to predict(even for bookies!!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Saturday: Blakpool v Oldham. lay Blackpool to win 27.47pts @ 1.91 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 19, 2007 Author Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. A rare loser! Saturday: Blakpool v Oldham. lay Blackpool to win 27.47pts @ 1.91:( Sunday Morecombe v E#eter..lay E#eter to win 14.7pts @ 2.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 24, 2007 Author Share Posted May 24, 2007 Re: laying play-off Favourites. Going into the final 3 matches, the current state of play is... Starting Bank 200pts Current Bank 348.7pts a healthy profit is guaranteed! Bristol Rovers v Shrewsbury lay Rovers @ 2.3 to win 19.24pts Blackpool v Yeovil lay Blackpool @ 2.4 to win 17.85pts WBA v Derby lay WBA @ 2.4 to win 17.85pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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