Ell Ess Dee Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 I noticed everytime I seem to have QQ on the BOSS network I seem to always lose, no matter how I play it. Admittedly 23 times might not be a true reflection, but surely they must hold up more than this or is it just plain bad luck on my part? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? 4% is ridiculously low .... so much so that I cant believe the stat!!!! Could there be an error in the data import? I know it's a small sample, but even for that small a sample I dont believe it...... No matter how badly you played it (:tongue2) I just cant see it winning that infrequently, but out of interest, how do you play it typically? Slow or fast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? Ah - I can see pre flop raise is 39% - that's way too low IMO!!! (but still doesn't account for the stat!!) What do you do with a flopped overcard? Often it is worth a "continuation bet" to see where you are (and represent AK if you raised pre flop).... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ell Ess Dee Posted May 1, 2007 Author Share Posted May 1, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? I know it's not a data error, my PC has nearly been through the window a few times and whenever I get QQ now it gets mucked no matter what. Just seesm to be an omen with me on this site. Here it is through Poker Tracker, other hands show up on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 1, 2007 Share Posted May 1, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? Can you post some hand histories where you lost? (the 3 most recent - I don't just want to see the bad beats :tongue2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? is this tourney or cash? as it makes a big difference Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? $15,590 down in 23 hands? I presume it's tourneys ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? my point exactly - massive difference in tourneys to cash I can't quite see how the stats matter that much given that blinds vs chip stacks vs ITM is changing every hand Cheers Damo $15' date='590 down in 23 hands? I presume it's tourneys ;)[/quote'] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? my point exactly - massive difference in tourneys to cash I can't quite see how the stats matter that much given that blinds vs chip stacks vs ITM is changing every hand Cheers Damo It's true that it makes a big difference, and the profit/loss doesn't mean much in tournaments, but winning only one hand out of 23 with QQ seems extremely unlikely whether it's cash or tournaments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? I dont think it matters whether it's cash or Tourney, Short stacked or deep stacked ..... QQ won't lose over 95% of the time in any circumstance!!! It is the exception to be right to lay QQ down pre flop ... it is still a premium hand, and should be played as such..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? well agree to disagree I guess you have QQ on the short stack say 5 BB, shove and get 2 callers - the chances of winning are reduced Also its L1 of a tourney and you raise 4BB and get 4 callers, how do you feel when the flop is K87s and you don't have the suit? both examples happen and would go some way to explain the undue variance in how poor it seems to play I don't think that stats can be used in tourneys to see what is profitable or not, because of the blinds vs stack vs ITM changing every hand YMMV Damo I dont think it matters whether it's cash or Tourney' date=' Short stacked or deep stacked ..... QQ won't lose over 95% of the time in any circumstance!!! It is the exception to be right to lay QQ down pre flop ... it is still a premium hand, and should be played as such.....[/quote'] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? If you play at a 10-seater table, and all 10 players stay in to the end, then you have about a 22.2% chance of winning with QQ, and over 23 hands, there would be about a one in 40 chance of winning only one hand or none. That's ridiculously unrealistic, of course. In practise, in any form of holdem, I'd expect a lot more than a 22.2% win rate with QQ, although the figure would vary with the form of poker. What kind of figure do other people who use Poker Tracker (or similar) have for their win rate with QQ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? I guess the other point would be in a cash game assuming you have a healthy stack to blind ratio you are generally waiting for good cards to play - so in MP with A10o to a 4BB raise in front of you at a full table your hand is (generally) going to be folded, in a tourney with only 12 BB you might shove and take the gamble - you can't afford to sit and wait for cards in a tourney like you can at a cash game - so I would expect your variance to be higher in a tourny as you are calling/raising//being called raised with more marginal hands with have a -tive impact of the 'value' of QQ Just my thoughts Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? QQ won't lose over 95% of the time in any circumstance!!! This is yet another failing of trying to use statistical probability to try and predict random events. In fact blind faith in the occurrence of variance is as short-sighted (imo) as a beginner who cannot understand why AA sometimes loses. I accept that 23 occasions is a small sample but it's human nature to focus on the relatively short-term and it would take a huge effort for Ell Ess Dee not to allow these stats impact on his future playing of QQ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? in that case I can offer only one piece of advice just shove them - that way you have no tricky, do I call/raise/reraise with them PF and how do I play them on the flop/turn/river etc? that way the 'block' of playing QQ is removed, as you only have one play with them alternatively (and something I wouldn't recommend) is to fold them every time Damo for Ell Ess Dee not to allow these stats impact on his future playing of QQ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? This is yet another failing of trying to use statistical probability to try and predict random events. In fact blind faith in the occurrence of variance is as short-sighted (imo) as a beginner who cannot understand why AA sometimes loses. I accept that 23 occasions is a small sample but it's human nature to focus on the relatively short-term and it would take a huge effort for Ell Ess Dee not to allow these stats impact on his future playing of QQ. I honestly believe that that is one of the major differences between profitable and non profitable players ..... those that can "step back" from the emotion of the short term variance and continue making the best long term decisions, regardless of what has happened in the recent session(s).... If you are on the Button, have QQ and everyone folds to you, do you think "I've lost with this hand on 22 of the last 23 occasions, I fold", do you think "I've lost with this hand on 22 of the last 23 occasions, I call and hope to see a favourable flop" or do you think do you think "I've lost with this hand on 22 of the last 23 occasions, but that doesn't matter, I have a premium hand and will raise it up aggressively in the hope that someone thinks I'm stealing and calls me with an inferior holding". Anything other than the third choice is a massive blunder........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? I concur with everything in the post :clap Post of the day for me :ok Damo I honestly believe that that is one of the major differences between profitable and non profitable players ..... those that can "step back" from the emotion of the short term variance and continue making the best long term decisions, regardless of what has happened in the recent session(s).... If you are on the Button, have QQ and everyone folds to you, do you think "I've lost with this hand on 22 of the last 23 occasions, I fold", do you think "I've lost with this hand on 22 of the last 23 occasions, I call and hope to see a favourable flop" or do you think do you think "I've lost with this hand on 22 of the last 23 occasions, but that doesn't matter, I have a premium hand and will raise it up aggressively in the hope that someone thinks I'm stealing and calls me with an inferior holding". Anything other than the third choice is a massive blunder........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? I honestly believe that that is one of the major differences between profitable and non profitable players ..... those that can "step back" from the emotion of the short term variance and continue making the best long term decisions, regardless of what has happened in the recent session(s)....Well.... you can't speak from experience though can you because bad beats never happen. ;) Most of the time I feel the same way. However I still remember when I lost with pocket Kings 5 times in 2 days. I received them with glee every time until the last. I believed they would win too, including the last time and played them as you should play premium hands. Did I want to see pocket Kings for the next few days? Absolutely not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ell Ess Dee Posted May 2, 2007 Author Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? Mostly all from daily freeroll.. here last 4. ***** Hand History for Game 601527134 ***** NL Texas Hold'em Trny: 76538189 Level: 5 Blinds(75/150) - Friday, Apr 27, 20:03:48 ET 2007 Table $100 Daily Freeroll (Real Money) Seat 10 is the button Total number of players : 10 Seat 1: Blind1984 ( $3390 ) Seat 2: gajak ( $855 ) Seat 3: sanya2 ( $860 ) Seat 4: tudj ( $1655 ) Seat 5: TheRivers ( $1735 ) Seat 6: ToMeSz861 ( $4880 ) Seat 7: mistros ( $975 ) Seat 8: h.amand ( $2685 ) Seat 9: Bencsy ( $2060 ) Seat 10: PL-LSD ( $1985 ) Trny: 76538189 Level: 5 Blinds(75/150) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to PL-LSD [ Qh Qs ] mistros folds. h.amand raises [400]. Bencsy calls [400]. PL-LSD folds. Blind1984 folds. gajak folds. sanya2 folds. tudj folds. TheRivers folds. ToMeSz861 folds. ** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, 2h, Th ] h.amand bets [400]. Bencsy folds. h.amand does not show cards. h.amand wins 1425 chips Game#601528196 starts.mistros posts big blind [$150]. #Game No : 601528196 ======================================================================== ***** Hand History for Game 584441386 ***** NL Texas Hold'em Trny: 68065712 Level: 4 Blinds(50/100) - Friday, Apr 13, 19:52:01 ET 2007 Table $100 Daily Freeroll (Real Money) Seat 6 is the button Total number of players : 9 Seat 1: Lou_Lou_X ( $980 ) Seat 2: nicola2007 ( $2730 ) Seat 3: Jhonyy ( $1900 ) Seat 4: PL-LSD ( $5645 ) Seat 5: BABYRIO ( $4595 ) Seat 6: marboro ( $1935 ) Seat 7: Dzsonny86 ( $5670 ) Seat 8: n3mbers ( $1750 ) Seat 10: wakefield5 ( $1350 ) Trny: 68065712 Level: 4 Blinds(50/100) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to PL-LSD [ Qc Qs ] wakefield5 folds. Lou_Lou_X is all-In. nicola2007 folds. Jhonyy folds. PL-LSD calls [980]. BABYRIO folds. marboro folds. Dzsonny86 folds. n3mbers folds. ** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, 8d, 6h ] ** Dealing Turn ** [ Kd ] ** Dealing River ** [ 3c ] Lou_Lou_X shows [ Ac, Ad ] a pair of aces. PL-LSD shows [ Qc, Qs ] a pair of queens. Lou_Lou_X wins 2110 chips from the main pot with a pair of aces. Game#584442178 starts. #Game No : 584442178 ======================================================================= ***** Hand History for Game 570148238 ***** NL Texas Hold'em Trny: 64747164 Level: 8 Blinds(200/400) - Tuesday, Mar 27, 20:40:27 ET 2007 Table $100 Daily Freeroll (Real Money) Seat 8 is the button Total number of players : 10 Seat 1: PL-LSD ( $10192 ) Seat 2: PLTQM1 ( $4650 ) Seat 3: runadrum3 ( $3495 ) Seat 4: PLDodger ( $3670 ) Seat 5: shanya ( $60 ) Seat 6: robbiePL ( $4840 ) Seat 7: szabiiii ( $2600 ) Seat 8: slapdash2 ( $5655 ) Seat 9: ColUFC1 ( $4200 ) Seat 10: Muffin23pl ( $7290 ) Trny: 64747164 Level: 8 Blinds(200/400) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to PL-LSD [ Qs Qh ] PL-LSD raises [1200]. PLTQM1 folds. runadrum3 folds. PLDodger folds. shanya folds. robbiePL folds. szabiiii raises [2000]. slapdash2 folds. ColUFC1 folds. Muffin23pl folds. PL-LSD raises [1600]. szabiiii is all-In. ** Dealing Flop ** [ 3d, 7h, Ac ] ** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ] ** Dealing River ** [ 9d ] PL-LSD shows [ Qs, Qh ] a pair of queens. szabiiii shows [ As, Kc ] a pair of aces. PL-LSD wins 200 chips from side pot#1 with a pair of queens. szabiiii wins 5800 chips from the main pot with a pair of aces. Game#570148947 starts. #Game No : 570148947 ====================================================================== ***** Hand History for Game 570071666 ***** NL Texas Hold'em Trny: 64747164 Level: 2 Blinds(15/30) - Tuesday, Mar 27, 19:34:07 ET 2007 Table $100 Daily Freeroll (Real Money) Seat 6 is the button Total number of players : 9 Seat 1: PL-LSD ( $4665 ) Seat 2: rlpn40 ( $1515 ) Seat 3: Andy1268 ( $3157 ) Seat 5: daveygh3 ( $3123 ) Seat 6: runadrum3 ( $1530 ) Seat 7: rony11 ( $1440 ) Seat 8: jonlemonpl ( $1110 ) Seat 9: martiiin10 ( $1745 ) Seat 10: scrumpityJ ( $1350 ) Trny: 64747164 Level: 2 Blinds(15/30) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to PL-LSD [ Qs Qd ] martiiin10 calls [30]. scrumpityJ folds. PL-LSD raises [120]. rlpn40 folds. Andy1268 folds. daveygh3 folds. runadrum3 calls [120]. rony11 folds. jonlemonpl folds. martiiin10 calls [90]. ** Dealing Flop ** [ 6c, Ac, 8h ] martiiin10 checks. PL-LSD bets [120]. runadrum3 calls [120]. martiiin10 folds. ** Dealing Turn ** [ 8d ] PL-LSD bets [180]. runadrum3 calls [180]. ** Dealing River ** [ 7s ] PL-LSD checks. runadrum3 checks. PL-LSD shows [ Qs, Qd ] two pairs, queens and eights. runadrum3 shows [ 9d, As ] two pairs, aces and eights. runadrum3 wins 1005 chips from the main pot with two pairs, aces and eights. Game#570073037 starts. #Game No : 570073037 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Re: QQ - Is it really that good?? 1st hand - shove - u have about 12 BB left, you are not getting a better chance with 1K in the middle already to double up 2nd hand - don't just call, reraise to isolate or to create a side pot, don't let someone behind you call for a bit of 'value' 3rd hand - must shove after the reraise 4th hand - make the cont bet then check fold Mostly all from daily freeroll.. here last 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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