Matthew Posted April 4, 2007 Share Posted April 4, 2007 Hello all, I've been beavering away this past few months with all the data from tennis-data to create a statistical model - much like the one I described in Predict the EPL thread (see sig). I have calculated the following for each and every ATP match between 01-01-2001 --> 31/12/2006. This was some 16000 matches. Current stats<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Current world rank Centrebet Odds Change in rank (from one month ago to now) Change in rank (from two months ago to now) Change in rank (from six months ago to now) Change in rank (from one year ago to now) Playing in country of birth (Yes or No) Age on match day (in days) H2H stats - all time Number of H2H matches Number of 3set H2H matches Number of 5set H2H matches Days since last H2H match W & L %ages W & L %ages for 3 set matches W & L %ages for 5 set matches avg sets won per match avg games won per match avg games won per set avg sets won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per set in 3 set matches avg sets won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per set in 5 set matches %age tie breaks won %age tie breaks won in 3 set matches %age tie breaks won in 5 set matches - on surface of upcoming match Number of H2H matches Number of 3set H2H matches Number of 5set H2H matches Days since last H2H match W & L %ages W & L %ages for 3 set matches W & L %ages for 5 set matches avg sets won per match avg games won per match avg games won per set avg sets won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per set in 3 set matches avg sets won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per set in 5 set matches %age tie breaks won %age tie breaks won in 3 set matches %age tie breaks won in 5 set matches Using KXEN I randomly split this file of 16000 matches up into 3 datasets. 35% to build the model 35% to train the model 30% to test the model KXEN uses the build set to learn what drives a winner, it then tests this on the validation set - repeatedly arguing with itself until it is happy that the resultant statistical model is both explanatory of what drives a winner and is robust enough to use in the real world. The model then simply scores the test set to allow you to see how it would have got on had you used it - it does not use the test data for any other reason. In order to see how viable it is - I scored the test set with the model and assessed the financials to £1 level stakes. Which were: Staked:£4,195.00Returned:£4,141.74P+L:-£53.26Strike Rate:68.1%Yield:-1.3%Avg Odds:1.50Min Odds:1.011Max Odds:3.46 Slightly disappointing - however in the above scenario I am merely betting £1 level stakes on the person the model gives a more than 50% chance of winning to. For example - if A. Murray has a 50.01% chance of winning and T. Henman has a 49.99% chance - I would back A. Murray. This is very sub optimal in my eyes so I set about optimising where I should set my cutoff as 50% clearly isn't the place. Using VBA in excel I slowly cranked up my cutoff from 50% --> 100% in 0.01% increments - some 500 possibilites. I discovered that the optimum cutoff for me is 63.9% which produced financials of, again at £1 level stake: Staked:£2,978.00Returned:£3,460.35P+L:£482.34Strike Rate:83.3%Yield:16.2%Avg Odds:1.39Min Odds:1.011Max Odds:3.46Avg Win Odds:1.40 This is a reduction in bets placed of 29% a reduction in return of 16.5% an 22.3% increase in strike rate from 68.1% --> 83.3%. P&L and Yield have flipped the right side of the minus sign!!! I reflected on this for a while and decided that a true test would be data that wasn't even in existence yet. So back I went to tennis-data and got the 2007 ATP results up till the end of March 2007. 764 matches. The same stats were calculated and upon scoring the data with the model, I set about discovering the financials - which looked like this (again £1 level stakes, using the 63.9% cutoff): Staked:£569.00Returned:£660.14P+L:£91.14Strike Rate:83.5%Yield:16.0%Avg Odds:1.39Min Odds:1.01Max Odds:6.75Avg Win Odds:1.39 Much relief from my end as the model has held its own on data that wasn't even in existence when it was built. All metrics are almost identical to the results from the test dataset. I spent some time reflecting again and did a bit of research of staking methods and the one I thought suited my model best would be %age of current bank staking. My aim is to increase P&L. Using 1% of a 100 unit initial bank I observe: Staked:£905.10Returned:£1,049.98P+L:£144.88Strike Rate:83.5%Yield:16.0%Avg Odds:1.39Min Odds:1.01Max Odds:6.75Avg Win Odds:1.39 (level of stake is changed after each days betting, not each bet - as in tennis multiple bets go off at the same time) Obviously my strike rate doesn't change but my yield does drop slightly - although in the 3-4 decimal places area - certainly not a material difference. I'm planning to start posting picks on Monday 9th April as that is when the ATP tour kicks off again after a break. I have a few questions for the folks out there: Is the staking plan right - should I be more aggressive given my strike rate? Where are draws for the ATP available from in advance? - I can find nothing for this coming Monday from ATPtennis.com nor the actual websites for the tournaments. Which bookmakers usually offer the best odds for tennis? I am currently registered at: Bet365 BetDirect Betfair Betfred Blue Square Centrebet Gamebookers Interwetten Ladbrokes Mansion Pinnacle Premierbet Skybet SportingOdds Stan James Totesport Victor Chandler (.com) Willhill am i missing a big player in the tennis market? I think thats it - wish me luck in the coming weeks and here's to making some money.:cheers :cheers Matt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Youssef Posted April 5, 2007 Share Posted April 5, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop I'm not "absolutely" sure, but I "think" bet365 are one of the most decent bookies in the tennis market. However, I'm only comparing them to BetInternet, GameBookers & BWin (personal experience) yet a couple of my friends whom actually bet more on tennis say the same. Also, BetFair (or any other Betting Exchange) are not included, simply because the price changes too quickly. I do use BetFair for live betting on tennis though. I'm gonna keep an eye on this thread as well. I wish you all the luck (as I'm following you, and that means luck for myself as well!) *LOL* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted April 5, 2007 Share Posted April 5, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop You're missing Pinnacle. Absolutely essential that you have an account there imo. Not including the exchanges, they consistently have the best prices on tennis as far as I can see. Stan James is also good because they price up matches earlier than anyone else and they're prone to the occasional blunder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 5, 2007 Author Share Posted April 5, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Thanks guys - I now have accounts at Pinnacle & Stan James Will add them to the list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted April 5, 2007 Share Posted April 5, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Nice work plopplop. Look forward to your picks and good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 6, 2007 Author Share Posted April 6, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Nice work plopplop. Look forward to your picks and good luck :ok Cheers McGin - I too hope for success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 6, 2007 Share Posted April 6, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Superb work again Plop. Good luck mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinTHFC Posted April 6, 2007 Share Posted April 6, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Looks very good. I will be following this with some interest and would like to wish you good luck even though you shouldn't need it:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squelch Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop I think thats it - wish me luck in the coming weeks and here's to making some money.:cheers :cheers Matt Good luck Matt! Plenty of beers and bananas hopefully :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 7, 2007 Author Share Posted April 7, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Superb work again Plop. Good luck mate. Looks very good. I will be following this with some interest and would like to wish you good luck even though you shouldn't need it:ok Good luck Matt! Plenty of beers and bananas hopefully :ok Thanks people. Its been a little boring waiting for the ATP to get its act together but hopefully I will have some predictions come Monday......... Its most annoying to have a system that you believe in and have to wait days and days to utilise it!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonix1001 Posted April 8, 2007 Share Posted April 8, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Hello all, I have a few questions for the folks out there: Is the staking plan right - should I be more aggressive given my strike rate? Matt My experience is that you have to have around 92% and up to get really aggressive. Around 80-85 is still too risky. You can still have 3 or 4 losers in row. Suggestion for second system: Did you try to get the strike rate to over 92% and use 40-50% of the bank for each bet in some of your systems? You will probably have 10% - 20% of your bets left but the money is growing faster. I love this kind of staking. It’s exiting. You have to start with reasonable amount of money that you can loose, and have exit criteria like out after 2 losers in row to see what is going on. It’s very important that you really have the over 92% of strike rate, in other case you are just kidding yourself and will suffer very soon. It can also be used with In-Play strategies. In my case time is also a factor, you know, job, family and so on. So it’s preferable for me to bet less times but get a good profit anyway. The bad thing is that it's hard to find systems what much these criteria and there are not so many selections during the year. I'm really jealous of your Kxen.;) This seems to be a good tool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Cheers Sonix1001. I'll bear that in mind and when I get some time I will look into what cutoff i need to achieve the 92% strike rate you talk about - I will then look to run a paper trial where I stake a lot more of a fictional bank per bet. Now the ATP @ Houston and Valencia are only a matter of hours away I am ready to go with this. There is REAL money involved - I have a bank of £1,900 (18 trusting friends) and will be staking 1% of my bank per match - what 1% equates to will be adjusted after each days play. Predictions will come once prices are available across a number of bookmakers - centrebet especially!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Are you just interested in chances of winning, or do you compare to the odds in order to find value selections? For example - if A. Murray has a 50.01% chance of winning and T. Henman has a 49.99% chance - I would back A. Murray. I.e. If Henman was 3.00, would it be picked up that because he is a 49.99% chance he'd be a smarter bet? GL, Crouch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop TournamentRoundPlayer1Player2BookiesOddsStakeATP Valencia1stHernandez O.Koubek S.Betfair1.62£19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop TournamentRoundPlayer1Player2Bookies Odds StakeATP Valencia1stGabashvili T.Simon G.Betfair1.38£19ATP Houston1stDevilder N.Gimelstob J.Skybet1.25£19ATP Houston1stMonaco J.Gambill J.M.Bet3651.12£19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonix1001 Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop TournamentRoundPlayer1Player2BookiesOddsStakeATP Valencia1stGabashvili T.Simon G.Betfair1.38£19ATP Houston1stDevilder N.Gimelstob J.Skybet1.25£19ATP Houston1stMonaco J.Gambill J.M.Bet3651.12£19 :hope :hope :hope I'm with you from begining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted April 10, 2007 Share Posted April 10, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Nice work PP. A yield of 16% for tennis is pretty impressive! What is KXEN? Is it neural net based? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonix1001 Posted April 10, 2007 Share Posted April 10, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop :hope :hope :hope I'm with you from begining. :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 10, 2007 Author Share Posted April 10, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 10, 2007 Author Share Posted April 10, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 10, 2007 Author Share Posted April 10, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana Well done Sonix1001 - you were fortunate to miss the first one - which i bombed on!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 10, 2007 Author Share Posted April 10, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Nice work PP. A yield of 16% for tennis is pretty impressive! What is KXEN? Is it neural net based? Cheers Sgt Sunshine. I try. Sadly, due to Centrebet being very poor at posting odds in a timely manner for me to utilise - I have had to swap in Bet365 odds instead of centrebet odds as a predictor in my model. A shame as it lowers my expectations a little to around the 10% yield mark 2007 YTD. KXEN.com will give you a lot of info. KXEN uses polynomial modelling and has been discussed quite a but in my EPL thread (look @ my sig). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 10, 2007 Author Share Posted April 10, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Are you just interested in chances of winning, or do you compare to the odds in order to find value selections? I.e. If Henman was 3.00, would it be picked up that because he is a 49.99% chance he'd be a smarter bet? GL, Crouch Just catching up..... I am primarily chasing the winners at the moment - I am not looking for value - this is primarily because my predictions for %ages are very very vlose to the odds on offer from the bookies. So I would get very few selections if I looked for bug deviations in %age chances. Maybe later in the season I'll see if I can do anything along these lines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 11, 2007 Author Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Date Bet PlacedTournamentRoundPlayer1Player2BookiesOddsStake11/04/2007ATP Valencia1stVolandri F.Koubek S.bet3651.4£20.1011/04/2007ATP Valencia1stAlmagro N.Di Mauro A.stanjames1.2£20.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Polynomial modelling, it's on my list :lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Good Luck Plop, i'm going to follow you on this. I said i wouldnt bet on tennis again after a bad year last year but judging by your excellent models plus your superb results on your EPL thread i am willing to give this a go. Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 11, 2007 Author Share Posted April 11, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 11, 2007 Author Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Good Luck Plop, i'm going to follow you on this. I said i wouldnt bet on tennis again after a bad year last year but judging by your excellent models plus your superb results on your EPL thread i am willing to give this a go. Cheers. Thanks Barrhead73...............I am pleased you trust me. The EPL thread is going well....suprisingly so given it was first attempt at anything like this - the spanish thread went V.BAD in contrast!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonix1001 Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 11, 2007 Author Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: Tennis Betting from PlopPlop Date Bet PlacedTournamentRoundPlayer1Player2BookiesOddsStakeCorrectReturn09/04/2007ATP Valencia1stHernandez O.Koubek S.Betfair1.62£19.00N:wall £0.0009/04/2007ATP Valencia1stSimon G.Gabashvili T.Betfair1.361£19.00Y:ok £25.8609/04/2007ATP Houston1stDevilder N.Gimelstob J.Skybet1.25£19.00Y:ok £23.7509/04/2007ATP Houston1stMonaco J.Gambill J.M.Bet3651.12£19.00Y:ok £21.2810/04/2007ATP Valencia1stLopez F.Martin A.betfred1.62£19.71N:wall £0.0010/04/2007ATP Valencia1stFalla A.Seppi A.betfred1.62£19.71Y:ok £31.9310/04/2007ATP Houston1stSpadea V.Ginepri R.skybet1.61£19.71Y:ok £31.8410/04/2007ATP Houston1stBlake J.Sanguinetti D.skybet1.17£19.71Y:ok £23.0010/04/2007ATP Valencia1stVerdasco F.Starace P.skybet1.57£19.71N:wall £0.0011/04/2007ATP Valencia1stAlmagro N.Di Mauro A.stanjames1.2£20.10Y:ok £24.1211/04/2007ATP Houston2ndMontanes A.Vemic D.betdirect1.53£19.83Y:ok £30.3411/04/2007ATP Houston2ndMelzer J.Hanescu V.betfred1.73£19.83Y:ok £34.31 A couple of bets got pushed got refunded due to injuries etc........Ferrer D.Bracciali D.and Volandri F.Koubek S. both at the ATP Valencia, which is a shame as Volandri was coasting and the replacement for Ferrer beat Bracciali easily!!!!!! Starting Bank:£2,000.00Current Bank:£2,012.12No of Bets:12Staked:£234.31Returned:£246.43P+L:£12.12Strike Rate:75.0%Yield:5.2%Avg Back Odds:1.49Avg Win Odds:1.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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