Crouch Potato Posted April 8, 2007 Author Share Posted April 8, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Cheers mate, the HT margin bets are serving me pretty well so far, which is more than I can say for the first tryscorers. Well done on your Mannering bet too. Who'd have though it'd pay to listen to the missus :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted April 8, 2007 Share Posted April 8, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 8, 2007 Author Share Posted April 8, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Wow, I sure am sucking on these team scores at present. Cowboys 31-40, Tigers 11-20 and now Titans 11-20. Would have sworn by at least one of Tigers or Titans finishing with 11-20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted April 8, 2007 Share Posted April 8, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 If you want a tip on the winner of this match tonight between the Sharks and dargons,then more than likely Dragons 1-12,myself i'm going for the total points in this match to end in the 41-50 total points range, Good Luck with whatever you go for tonight. These are for excitement more than solid picks so think wisely for yourself,you'll see theres no stake there,however I have put small excitement wagers on both those options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Considering those two same bets myself Jumbo, but wouldn't give any of them much strength. It's a pretty hard match to pick and you expect a close one either way. Will decide later on, particularly for the 41-50 pts total where conditions can play a big part. I do have one bet so far though: Sharks to lead at HT by 1-6 @ 5.00 Centrebet 3/10 There are some varioush ht/ft trends from last year that I noted but rather than try and play that market I've decided to try and specialise in the HT margin market a bit. Last year Sharks led a number of games at HT before losing (indeed happened v Titans 2 weeks ago) and given the game in store tonight this looks like a good match in which to make this play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 I'm wary of this match as Stuart has a decent record against the Dragons but the Sharks don't.Sharks defence has been alright,whereas Dragons has been iffy at times,but the Dragons have the Sharks in the Forwards,very tough match to pick,i'll stick wih the Dragons as they have Hornby and Head in the halves and Cooper out in the Centres and history points to a Dragons win.Final score:Sharks 16 Dragons 26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 One last one for me, nothing major but I've gone for Dragons Penalty goal as first scoring play @ 8 (Betfair - 1/10). Dragons have shown a willingness to take the 2pts this year and being a derby of sorts any early chance for points will almost certainly be taken IMO. Considering Simmons to outscore Covell as he's scored in 3 of the past 4 meetings, but on gut feeling it's nowhere near as good as the Bowen and Wesser bets I had this weekend, which both turned out winners. I'll leave it as confidence is low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 You are unbelievable,I put a tenner on that just 5 mins ago at $7.50 Freaky!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 You are unbelievable,I put a tenner on that just 5 mins ago at $7.50 Freaky!!! Incredibly! Let's hope we are on the money tonight :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 ST George -2.5 Local derby between these two teams so expect a very physical game. The Dragons have the edge in the forwards with Ryles, and in the backs too, and this should be enough to get them home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Considering Simmons to outscore Covell as he's scored in 3 of the past 4 meetings' date=' but on gut feeling it's nowhere near as good as the Bowen and Wesser bets I had this weekend, which both turned out winners. I'll leave it as confidence is low.[/quote'] Why do I listen to me? :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Flamboyant Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 ^ seriously you guys have gotta steer clear of those silly exotic bets ... you might hit one in 10 if you're lucky ... The guys that make good money in sports punting stick soley to ML (head to head), ATS (against the spread) and sometimes totals ... leave margins and first try scorers ect to the suckers ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Have you even looked at my margins performance this weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Flamboyant Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Have you even looked at my margins performance this weekend? pardon my ignorance if you've done well in that but most of the time I glance in here I see frustrated posters cursing another lost halftime margin or first try scorer ect ... don't mean to sound like a blowass but I just think simplicity is the key ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 pardon my ignorance if you've done well in that but most of the time I glance in here I see frustrated posters cursing another lost halftime margin or first try scorer ect ... don't mean to sound like a blowass but I just think simplicity is the key ... Margin Summary Souths 1-12 LOST; FYI, if I stayed simple, I'd have been on Souths anyway Bris @ HT by 7-12 @ 5; WON Storm @ HT by 9+ @ 3; LOST NZ @ HT by 1-6 @ 5; WON Sharks @ HT by 1-6 @ 5; LOST I also played the Storm on the line hard, and Brisbane on the line. Obviously they both won. Team Scores bet this weekend was poor, just 1/4. As for your comments, I will make two points; 1) Simpler bets are much better for having LARGE stakes bets. There is no way I'd have an unhealthy large stake bet on one of my more exotic selections 2) Betting is NOT about Simplicity. It is about VALUE. I took Trent Cutler @ $21 for First Try and Thurston @ $22. Cutler scored two last week and the 2nd and 3rd tries of the game. Give me those odds in every game this season on those two scoring first and I GUARANTEE you I will show you a profit. Manly last year at Brookvale trailed at HT a ridiculous number of times last year, so the Warriors by not much at HT was value. I might not pick as many winners as you, but at odds of 3.2 or 5.00 I don't have to. To dismiss a type of bet is ignorant IMO, because betting is about making money, which comes from value. Bet types are not unprofitable, odds are unprofitable. And that is really all I have to say on the manner. If you are better at selecting value by sticking to primary markets, then that is obviously what you should be doing. That doesn't mean they are the only way of making money though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Flamboyant Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 ok .. whatever floats your boat ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Fade the dragons who are simply awful :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Flamboyant Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Fade the dragons who are simply awful :@ Can't understand the huge public plunge that took place on them today .. they're a shadow of the Dragons teams from the past couple of seasons and the fact they had a few frontliners returning from injury against a Sharks side who's coach has been peeling the paint off the walls all week .. well it all added up to a play on Cronulla ... They're normally tough at home and the hosts are 10-1-3 in h/h record between these two teams ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Flamboyant Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Fade the dragons who are simply awful :@ Can't understand the huge public plunge that took place on them today .. they're a shadow of the Dragons teams from the past couple of seasons and the fact they had a few frontliners returning from injury against a Sharks side who's coach has been peeling the paint off the walls all week .. well it all added up to a play on Cronulla ... They're normally tough at home and the hosts are 10-1-3 in h/h record between these two teams ... bottom line, this was a statement game for the sharks ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Whoa whats been going on here then!! No ones strategy is better than anyone elses,Mr Flamboyant bets like I do,I can tell,but i'm not diverse to the odd outsiders margin bet5. If you want to make a living out of betting then decent h2h's are important,following sides with starts in matches and so on,Mr Flamboyant must punt for a living or why not his strategy is correct but honestly Mr Flamboyant,if you are trying to help others to do what i'm asuming you,myself and others do and punt for a crust,thats not the way. I have nothing against either of you but truth be told if there is nothing solid on CP finds a decent outsiders bet and for some people thats all that counts. I don't ridicule anyone ,I respect others for putting their views up and hope for their sakes it comes in,but not everyone is fortunate enough to suceed in professional punting,lets not flush people out before they have found their own stratergies first Mr Flamboyant. Oh by the way,I though the Sharks might turn it on,i'm glad I took the 41-50 total points, Well done to all this weekend,CP mate cracked a few as did I,at least the big money bets anyway,See you all next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Nice work with the totals Jumbo. At half-time I had a feeling it'd come in. Not that surprised the Sharks won, but the margin and manner in which they did was pretty surprising. Dragons really are a shambles though, can't see them making the top 8 this year. How they respond against the Storm next week will be interesting. Not many early thoughts, but Dogs v Manly should be a cracker. Manly had a real battle yesterday and may struggle against a Dogs team who must be high on confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Yeah mate,i've got nothing lined up for this week yet either,still 4 days to go. Good stuff this weekend mate,don't let dudes like Flamboyant get to you. Hes actually tryiny to help but just in the wrong way,anyways onwards and upwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Yeah mate,i've got nothing lined up for this week yet either,still 4 days to go. Good stuff this weekend mate,don't let dudes like Flamboyant get to you. Hes actually tryiny to help but just in the wrong way,anyways onwards and upwards. I've nothing against him, I've seen him around the NBL threads and he's alright. I'm not opposing his methods, they are obviously quite strong and I'd no way doubt their strength. But if you can't find one, to take an exotic which over time would produce profit, well to dismiss just seems naive to me. Each to their own though aye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Well said Bro. It really is each to their own,I try hard not to knock anyone as trail and error is the only way. Mr Flamboyant does have a good way but seems to of forgot what it's like to just have some fun with it,not every bet is a Big Money bet,2 or 3 a week can be most profitable,I should know,but there is also time to not take it so seriously and have a different sort of bet,exotic you'd call them. Anyways who gives a shite,you can't get every game right anyway even if you are 1000% confident,everyone loses eventually,I should know that to. I like your stuff mate,if i've got a big wager on I sometimes take your selections to make the match more intresting,I watch every match I have big wagers on. I'm just ravin on now,laters Bro,catch up with you on Friday, Take care bro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Flamboyant Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Maybe you should give it a go mate.Your ideas are correct now it's just the risk.lol Sweet as bro,thanks for saying something. Don't pick on my mate.;) He's the only person who gives it a go with me every week.:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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