NRL Round 4: April 6-9

[Crouch Potato]

Friday 6 April 2007
	Home	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="center">BPP
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canterbury Bulldogs (10:30 BST)	2.14	1.63	109%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time
Saturday 7 April 2007
	Home	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="center">BPP
Newcastle Knights v Melbourne Storm (08:30 BST)	3.00	1.46	102%	Related markets...Match Result
North Qld Cowboys v Wests Tigers (10:30 BST)	1.15	2.32	131%	Related markets...Match Result
Parramatta Eels v Canberra Raiders (10:30 BST)	1.61	2.22	108%	Related markets...Match Result
Sunday 8 April 2007
	Home	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="center">BPP
Manly Sea Eagles v NZ Warriors (05:00 BST)	1.62	2.24	107%	Related markets...Match Result
Penrith Panthers v Gold Coast Titans (06:00 BST)	1.33	3.00	109%	Related markets...Match Result
Monday 9 April 2007
	Home	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="center">BPP
Cronulla Sharks v St G-Illawarra Dragons (10:00 BST)	1.71	1.86	113%	Related markets...Match Result

Thanks for the sticky ;)

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Awesome stuff CP bro. There is some money to be made this weekend. Souths to beat the Dogs 10/10 Broncos -8.5 10/10 Storm -4.5 10/10 Panthers -10 8/10 Raiders to beat the Eels 5/10 Lets make some mony this weekend lads,I have every intention of doing so.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Strongly agree on the Broncos and Souths calls. Panthers I think should cover easily too. Storm I prefer the 1-12 more than the -4.5. Raiders I agree too, but I have a mini system that I designed in Soccer and am going to look to transfer that over to the NRL. Also feel that Tigers Team Score 11-20 is a very strong odds against bet this weekend.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 A reminder to everyone who bets with the Australian TAB that they are closed, both outlets and online/telephone betting, for Good Friday tomorrow. Anyone wishing to make a bet on the Friday Night games with the TAB should note this and act accordingly. TAB resumes business at 8am on Saturday and other matches are not affected. For online bookies best to check that they will be up tomorrow.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 If anyone is a regular player of the First Try-Scorer market and has had a look at Centrebet's market you will probably see some major WTFage going on. Of particular note are: Shaun Berrigan $26 ($21 a closer price, and still a tiny bit of overs at that price) Jarryd Hayne $16 (Eels are clear favourites, Raiders could well surprise with a win but this price is Overs. Last year Hayne would have been HALF this price against same opposition and even if Raiders do win like last year whose to say Eels wont score first) Andrew Johns $26 (Humilated last week, Johns is just the type of person who could come out and respond this week. Has previously scored a first try at home against the Storm, yet to score this season.) Johnathan Thurston $22 (First Scorer last week, Cowboys almost certain first scorers this week. The Bowens should be favourites but when I think Cowboys try-scorers this man is right behind the Bowens) Trent Cutler $21 (Scored two tries last week, plays on the wing. Souths are favoured here by us but not by the bookies. Unless they know something about Matt Utai being a late inclusion then this is too big) I understand that this isn't everyone's market and it's not one for major stakes, but value is value and all 5 are just that IMO. Now...sit back, relax and watch all 5 players fail to score at all!

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Given the massive favouritism Penrith enjoy over the Titans, Rhys Wesser at $17 should also be added to the list. Would normally expect him at $11-$12. PS - If any mod is reading, you can unsticky the Round 3 thread.

[JPVD]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9

A reminder to everyone who bets with the Australian TAB that they are closed' date=' both outlets and online/telephone betting, for Good Friday tomorrow. Anyone wishing to make a bet on the Friday Night games with the TAB should note this and act accordingly. TAB resumes business at 8am on Saturday and other matches are not affected. For online bookies best to check that they will be up tomorrow.[/quote'] Dude, that is awesome info! On it.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Whoa,great stuff CP bringing that up,NZ TAB is open 11.15am-1130pm. :cheers

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 That's what I'm here for :ok Sportingbet have Thurston 4th in line @ $13 behind the Bowens and Graham and IMO that is just where he should be. TAB has gone $15 and that's probably overs too, so I'm making Thurston First Tryscorer @ $22 the value bet of the week (5/10). Watch it bite me in the ass :unsure Btw Jumbo, I know you are keen to play my team on the line. Skybet (who do caps inclusive of draw) have the Broncos at -6 (effectively -6.5) @ 1.91. Ok it's probably gonna be trivial but it does cover you the 7 or 8pt win that the -8.5 doesn't. Depends on what odds you're getting for -8.5 too

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 I know but i'm farly confident of a backlash tonight with the Broncos,I don't think the Broncos are going that badly,they are just not finishing plays off while the Roosters are just playing badly.I think a team with as much talent and skill as the Broncos and a coach as good as Bennett will have picked this Roosters side apart during the week and they will produce the goods tonight. In my defence the Broncos have had a full week to recover and were not beaten up by the Panthers while the Roosters played last Sunday and Manly did bash them rather well,I can't see the Broncos losing to many more and I would rate this match as key for the Broncos,The Broncos will know it and so will Bennett,I'm actually really expecting a 13 + from them tonight.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 I think you might have understood me, I was just meaning that it was probably a shorter line at the same price, and so a slightly better bet. Not that it should matter, I too expect a sizable win. Was hoping Centrebet would open up a MOTM market - Berrigan loves playing against the Roosters.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Yeah mate,but I took the line when it opened and I hate back tracking on what my first thoughts were,I must say tho 6 points is far greater value than 9,but I am still expecting the Broncs to cover,but I do wish i'd seen that earlier.

[Dingotech]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Hey boys and girls. I put my bets on last night for today. I'm on Souths with the 3.5 start (yes I'm a pussy and didn't take them for the straight win!). And I'm on the Bronco's with the -8.5 start, not as confident about this one, but I'm not going near the Roosters this year! Loving the way you guys are discussing the first-try scorer betting! Haha, I would have some money on with you if the TAB wasn't closed. Good luck, get out to a game if you can guys, I'll be at the Knights. :drums

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Ok,I'm on Souths to win and for fun 1-12 in the marcgins. Broncos to beat the Roosters with the -8.5,a big ask but i've already taken it and for fun Broncos 13+., Good Luck to all.

[ads25]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Seems like South are a pretty popular tip to win tonight. Is there a reason the Bulldogs are so short priced? Or is South to win at $2.14 just really good value?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9

Seems like South are a pretty popular tip to win tonight. Is there a reason the Bulldogs are so short priced? Or is South to win at $2.14 just really good value?

Bulldogs have been a powerhouse team this entire decade whilst Souths have had more wooden spoons than a Jamie Oliver kitchen. However Souths have improved dramatically this season with some massive off-season signings whilst the Bulldogs lost two of their best forwards and indeed the best forward in the game. Still, I don't really think that the bookies feel comfortable offering the odds against on the Dogs. The confidence in Souths is backed up by the fact that they are 3/3 this year whilst the dogs are a shaky 1/3 with some unconvincing performances. It's quite a tight one but the smart money is IMO on Souths, whilst if you'd rather higher odds Souths 1-12 would seem the most likely margin. I hope that helps :\

[888]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 I'll follow you guys on Rabbitohs 3/10 :hope

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Sydney Roosters 1. Anthony Minichiello, 2. Shaun Kenny-Dowell, 3. Iosia Soliola, 4. Joel Monaghan, 5. Sam Perrett, 6. Braith Anasta, 7. Mitchell Pearce, 8. David Shillington, 9. Craig Wing, 10. Danny Nutley, 11. Nate Myles, 12. Craig Fitzgibbon, 13. Anthony Tupou. Subs: 14. Chris Beattie, 15. Shane Shackleton, 16. Mitchell Aubusson, 17. Lopini Paea, 18. Heath L'Estrange, 19. Nigel Plum, 20. Willie Brown, 21. Amos Roberts (four to be omitted). Brisbane Broncos 1 Karmichael Hunt, 2 Steve Michaels, 3 Brent Tate, 4 Justin Hodges, 5 Darius Boyd, 6 Darren Lockyer ©, 7 Shane Perry, 8 Dane Carlaw, 9 Shaun Berrigan, 10 Petero Civoniceva, 11 Sam Thaiday, 12 Brad Thorn, 13 Greg Eastwood. Subs: 14 Nick Kenny, 15 Ben Hannant, 16 Ian Lacey, 17 Michael Ennis. This is a tradtional good Friday clash and traditionally one that sees my team win. Both teams are winless this year but Brisbane's roster has a lot of class and their performances at times has been decent, whereas the Roosters have looked spineless and are yet to score more than 8pts in a game this season. Bets: Brisbane -6 @ 1.91 Skybet (2.5/10 - NOTE: Would make this is a 7/10 but Skybet account is rather empty and so the remainder of it is on this selection! Cannot be bothered depositing) HT Margin Brisbane by 7-12 @ 5 Centrebet 2/10 Shaun Berrigan First Try-scorer @ 26 Centrebet 1/10 Shaun Berrigan MOTM @ 13 Centrebet 0.5/10

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Dammit,I just dropped Berrigan out of my fantasy team.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9

Dammit' date='I just dropped Berrigan out of my fantasy team.[/quote'] What fantasy comp is this mate?

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Sweet as,I just brought him back,cmon CP mate,get the Berrigan pick.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 I play the Fox Sports Fantasy League,which is very well put together I might add and I also play the Sportal NRL fantasy League,you play any bro?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Sure do mate, I played Sportal last year but this year I play the best fantasy comp around, VRL. It isn't just based on normal scoring, but it encompasses more aspects of the game more. Your forwards can earn 'forward tries' if they have a good hit up/tackle rates, your halves can score 'playmaker tries' for meeting kicking requirements etc. It's probably not too easily to follow your own progress as it's a bit stats based, but it's certainly the most realistic IMO. http://vrl.rleague.com/

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 That one sounds evcellent,The Fox sports league is good because unlike the Sportal game your players earn points for all aspects of the game,tackles made+1,tackles missed-1,trys,try assists+5,penalties conceeded-2,and so on very good and if you know your players well you can really enjoy it,the Sportal one is very dry,2 points if side wins,4 points for a try,but you will already know all that stuff,mate i'm off to have a look at your comp now.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 I had a look and it looks and sounds great but as the season is already underway I will just stay with what i'm in now as this is the best i've ever done so far in the Sportal comp i'm 18th overall and in the Fox Sports comp i'm 11th overall,so i'm really quite wrapped,but theres still ages to go and i'll probaly wind up way down,if I can finish in the top 20 for either of those comps,I will be estactic. I finished in the top 10 for the NFL last season and won some Jerseys and memrobillia which is by far the best I have ever done in any Fantasy League.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 Ok I thought I was done for the Brisbane match but I've just looked at Centrebet and how another WTF moment. Brent Tate is $3.10 to score a try at anytime tonight. He's $3.70 to outscore Hodges in a match up that includes the tie as a runner, so how he is $3.10 as an anytime scorer defies my belief as I fancy Brisbane to score a few tries tonight. He probably scores 50% of the time in this type of match so $3.10 is more than accepted. Brent Tate Anytime Scorer @ $3.10 Centrebet (3.5/10) --- Not related to this game either, but Rhys Wesser @ $17 for FTS is another WTF price. I don't know what the Centrebet try scoring odds compiler has been smoking but it's doing some serious shit! PS - With that comment I have now just doomed all of my try scorer bets. Still, there just seems such great value there :sad

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 $3.10 on Tate for anytime scorer!!!! Cripes thats a bargain,he'll score tonight,I hope I just did'nt put the mockers on him.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9

I'll follow you guys on Rabbitohs 3/10 :hope

Gl mate. :hope South Sydney Rabbitohs 1. David Peachey, 2. Nathan Merritt, 3. Nigel Vagana, 4. Shannon Hegarty, 5. Paul Mellor, 6. Jeremy Smith, 7. Joe Williams, 8. Peter Cusack ©, 9. Daniel Irvine, 10. Roy Asotasi, 11. David Kidwell ©, 12. David Fa'alogo, 13. John Sutton. Subs: 14. Shane Rigon, 15. Dean Widders, 16. Luke Stuart, 17. Scott Geddes. Bulldogs 1. Luke Patten, 2. Hazem El Masri, 3. Daryl Millard, 4. Willie Tonga, 5. Trent Cutler, 6. Daniel Holdsworth, 7. Ben Roberts, 8. Chris Armit, 9. Corey Hughes, 10. Willie Mason, 11. Sonny Bill Williams, 12. Andrew Ryan ©, 13. Reni Maitua. Subs: 14. Dallas McIlwain, 15. Nick Kouparitsas , 16. Kane Cleal, 17. Jarrad Hickey. Sonny Bill is back and that will help the Doggies a bit but this is offset by the suspension of O'Meley. IMO reputation rather than facts have dictated the favourite in this game and I expect Souths to win. However, I don't expect them to win by a big margin and so I am very happy to take Souths 1-12 instead of Souths to win, as I expect 75% of the time Souths win it is by this margin. If they win by more then great for the others around here, but it's a decision I am happy enough to go with. As mentioned earlier, I have taken Cutler for first try because the Centrebet compiler is on crack. Bets: Souths 1-12 (80min margin only, exc. Golden Pt) @ 3.7 Betfair 6/10 Trent Cutler First Try-scorer @ 21 Centrebet 1/10

[stalker]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9 i dunno here is true place or not but i found a match between of blues-cheetahs from union league.is there anyone to bring me some opinion for this one?blues can cover the hndcp or over 50 is woth a try? i found last match between of these two went over with 33-34

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 4: April 6-9

i dunno here is true place or not but i found a match between of blues-cheetahs from union league.is there anyone to bring me some opinion for this one?blues can cover the hndcp or over 50 is woth a try? i found last match between of these two went over with 33-34

Aw,Bro,the match has just kicked off,sorry,Blues will win and most likely cover,Sorry mate this is for Rugby League not union,but as no one seems to care about it so if you do ever want to ask a question if it's alright with everyone else,i'll answer. Sweet Bro,later.:)