Sco Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Right. It's been a while since I was on this forum, but after a stint of world travel I feel I have come back a more educated man. ;) I've been following tennis for years now and it is by far my most sucessful (usually) so I'm going to see how it goes. I do a lot of my betting in play on Betfair, which obviously I can't post up, so I will try and put extra thought into the picks! Starting Bank 100 Max Bet: 20 Bet 1 Dubai Open Nadal 1.48 V Bagdahtis The odds on Nadal here I feel are really good. Nadal has a 100% sets record against Marcos, winning both matches fairly convincingly. He is the defending champion here - a little extra motivation not to get knocked out as he has points to defend. Stats aside, Nadal despite his match practice should be up for this, and I would price the game at more like 1.3. Going to start off with a max bet here... odds are drifting so get on quick. Nadal to win @ 1.48 - 20 points staked. I can't seem to find any odds on Henman V Mahut yet - but I'll be putting a few points on Marhut I think over in Las Vegas - Henman seriously out of practice, and just coming back from the flu, apparently spending 24 hours in bed yesterday! Although he won the previous encounter it was on grass at Queens - Henman usually plays well there. Will be posting back up with a selection for this if the odds are half decent. Sco :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Welcome back and good luck mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... good luck with the thread mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... :welcome back and BOL:hope, Sco;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Well - he made me work for it, but he came through in the end. Good start :) New updated bank: 109.6 Bet 2 Tennis Channel Open Marhut 2.12 V Henman To repeat my above post I think the odds aren't too bad. They could be better, but I really think Henman will struggle. The last couple of times he has 'made a come back' he has done poorly - usually ending up saying something on the lines of, "I was dissapointed with the result but thought I was hitting the ball well" I'm hoping for the same tonight:hope Mahut to win @ 2.12 - 6 points staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Good start mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Bet 3 Tennis Channel Open Koubek 3.35 V Safin I think the odds on Safin (at around 1.4) are far too low here. He still hasn't quite regained that class that won him the Australian Open, and Koubek is no mug. Could see him getting frustrated here. Mahut to win @ 3.35 - 2 points staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Well... Henman looks pretty good at the moment. Marhut is playing pants:wall Will see how it goes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Ok guys, one more for the night. Bet 4 Tennis Channel Open Becker 1.52 V Hernych Becker is a class act and playing well as of late. His record this season has been good. Hernych on the other hand has been playing poorly with a record of won 1 lost 6. I expect a fairly easy game here for Becker - full stakes. Becker to win @ 1.52 - 20 points staked :hope :hope :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Ouch! Had £19 on your Becker but his game collapsed and Hemych came through to win in 2 sets! Burnt all over the place tonight and down £40! Still unlucky with yours! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted February 28, 2007 Share Posted February 28, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... You got screwed by conditions there I think. Becker's serve went to pieces in the wind. Good luck with the rest of your picks... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Yep - Becker just didn't turn up. Will just have to wait until Indian Wells starts now... don't really bet on womens tennis. Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 16, 2007 Author Share Posted March 16, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Bet 5 Indian Wells Open Murray 2.42 V Haas I am so certain of this one. I know a lot of people are going with Tommy here, but I REALLY think he will win this. 40 points - opportunities like this will not come around very often for Murray soon. See my write up in the tennis forums. Bet 6 Indian Wells Open Djokovic V Ferrer Lay Djokovic 2-0. @ 2.4 See write up in the tennis picks forums. To put a long story short, think Djokovic might slip up in one set but will still win. 5.6 pts for a winning of 9pts... Cheers Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Well done Mr Murray!:nana Really great match, and got to the stage where I thought he was going to lose due to injury but a superb performance. Bit of a kamikazee bet that one but I really was sure on it. Anyways, all good. Djokovic looked really strong against Ferrer, or to be more exact, Ferrer unforced errored his way to defeat... he was gash. So new bank: Balance: 132.8 Profit: 32.8 Bet 7 Indian Wells Open Murray V Djokovic 1.81 betfair Simply put Murray looked in quite a bad state after the match. He was obviously in pain with his ankle, and had treatment on his foot earlier in the match. Djokovic on the other hand looked very comfortable and should be relatively fresh. I'm pretty sure the injury won't force him to not play, but its one of those that may crop up in a tough three setter. Plus Murray has not a great record V young players, such as Gasquet, Djokovic and Nadal. 8 pts staked - I also think the odds may drift in Djokovic's favour so get on early! Good luck. Sco:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Bet 8 Nadal to beat Roddick @ 2.04 (betfair) 20 points staked. My reasoning for this one is Nadals increase in confidence and form. He finally seems to have that self belief that made him such a force last year, that I believe he didn't have at the start of the season. He knows he has a great opportunity to win a tournament without federer here so I would be suprised if he doesn't take this. A lot is been made of Roddicks serve at the moment - don't forget Nadal is an excellent returner of serve and a great defensive player. I see Roddick trying to rush the net, something he simply shouldn't do. Good luck Sco:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 18, 2007 Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Great stuff so far Sco. I'm working on a tennis model and would be interested in your thoughts of what factors are the greatest differentiators between who wins and who losses. I've made a list of what I am going to calculate for my system, anything you think i have missed? (Bold, Italics - I have already done) Current stats Current world rank Centrebet Odds Change in rank (from one month ago to now) Change in rank (from two months ago to now) Change in rank (from six months ago to now) Change in rank (from one year ago to now) Playing in country of birth (Yes or No) Age on match day (in days) H2H stats - all time Number of H2H matches Number of 3set H2H matches Number of 5set H2H matches Days since last H2H match W & L %ages W & L %ages for 3 set matches W & L %ages for 5 set matches avg sets won per match avg games won per match avg games won per set avg sets won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per set in 3 set matches avg sets won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per set in 5 set matches %age tie breaks won %age tie breaks won in 3 set matches %age tie breaks won in 5 set matches - on surface of upcoming match Number of H2H matches Number of 3set H2H matches Number of 5set H2H matches Days since last H2H match W & L %ages W & L %ages for 3 set matches W & L %ages for 5 set matches avg sets won per match avg games won per match avg games won per set avg sets won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per set in 3 set matches avg sets won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per set in 5 set matches %age tie breaks won %age tie breaks won in 3 set matches %age tie breaks won in 5 set matches PERFORMANCE STATS - in this tournament (lifetime) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won RR losses - count R128 losses - count R64 losses - count R32 losses - count R16 losses - count Quarter Finalist - count Semi Finalist - count Finalist - count Winner - count Avg rank of oppo - in this tournament last time here W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won Performance last time in tournament (1st, 2nd, 1/4s etc) Avg rank of oppo - tournament to date (only useful in later rounds of the current tournament) avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - year to date (summary of ytd performance) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - year to date on this surface (summary of ytd performance) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - previous 12 months (summary of previous year) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - previous 12 months on this surface (summary of previous year) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - all last seasons performance (summary of previous year) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - all last seasons performance on this surface (summary of previous year) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo Possible enhancements: - Performance against certain handed players if poss. - Avg rank off oppo split out into those defeated and those lost to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 18, 2007 Author Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Great stuff so far Sco. I'm working on a tennis model and would be interested in your thoughts of what factors are the greatest differentiators between who wins and who losses. I've made a list of what I am going to calculate for my system, anything you think i have missed? (Bold, Italics - I have already done) Current stats Current world rank Centrebet Odds Change in rank (from one month ago to now) Change in rank (from two months ago to now) Change in rank (from six months ago to now) Change in rank (from one year ago to now) Playing in country of birth (Yes or No) Age on match day (in days) H2H stats - all time Number of H2H matches Number of 3set H2H matches Number of 5set H2H matches Days since last H2H match W & L %ages W & L %ages for 3 set matches W & L %ages for 5 set matches avg sets won per match avg games won per match avg games won per set avg sets won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per set in 3 set matches avg sets won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per set in 5 set matches %age tie breaks won %age tie breaks won in 3 set matches %age tie breaks won in 5 set matches - on surface of upcoming match Number of H2H matches Number of 3set H2H matches Number of 5set H2H matches Days since last H2H match W & L %ages W & L %ages for 3 set matches W & L %ages for 5 set matches avg sets won per match avg games won per match avg games won per set avg sets won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per match in 3 set matches avg games won per set in 3 set matches avg sets won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per match in 5 set matches avg games won per set in 5 set matches %age tie breaks won %age tie breaks won in 3 set matches %age tie breaks won in 5 set matches PERFORMANCE STATS - in this tournament (lifetime) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won RR losses - count R128 losses - count R64 losses - count R32 losses - count R16 losses - count Quarter Finalist - count Semi Finalist - count Finalist - count Winner - count Avg rank of oppo - in this tournament last time here W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won Performance last time in tournament (1st, 2nd, 1/4s etc) Avg rank of oppo - tournament to date (only useful in later rounds of the current tournament) avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - year to date (summary of ytd performance) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - year to date on this surface (summary of ytd performance) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - previous 12 months (summary of previous year) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - previous 12 months on this surface (summary of previous year) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - all last seasons performance (summary of previous year) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo - all last seasons performance on this surface (summary of previous year) W & L %ages avg games won per match avg games won per set %age tie breaks won avg world rank of oppo Possible enhancements: - Performance against certain handed players if poss. - Avg rank off oppo split out into those defeated and those lost to. Hey, Wow - you've been busy! lol. I definately reckon you've got the majority of factors in there, to be honest perhaps you have too many? Some of the things you use to calculate are probably only useful when calculating odds 'in-play' perhaps such as tie break statistics? I guess unless of course they are playing someone like Karlovic or Roddick where it might be very important. I think what I am trying to say is that it really depends on each match which factors are important. One that I have used before is to look at how players play against left handed players, particularly on grass as a good lefty can be very effective if they can use a good slice serve. One that is difficult to put into a system but it is players confidence and thier self belief - something I really noticed change in Nadal this week, but, not sure how you could put that into your system? I'm interested in what output this calculation gives to help you make a decision - I assume it is a numerical value? or a %? Cheers Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 18, 2007 Author Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Right, 2 more winners :nana Nadal played perfectly against Roddick - played some great short balls inviting Roddick in and passed him easily. Very solid, particularly with his serving which was a pleasant suprise! Updated Bank No. of Bets: 8 Starting Bank: £100 Current Bank: £160.08 Profit: £60.08 Current exposure: 0 Good luck all:hope Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 18, 2007 Author Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Bet 9 Nadal Champion @ 1.43 (betfair) He has been very solid all week, and for pretty much the same reasons as against Roddick believe he will win. Djokovic is a good player and also playing well, so just 10 points staked. 20 points staked on Nadal @ 1.43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 18, 2007 Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Hey, Wow - you've been busy! lol. I definately reckon you've got the majority of factors in there, to be honest perhaps you have too many? Don't worry about this - the process of building a stats model whittles down the number of variables and removes the ones that have no impact on the result. Some of the things you use to calculate are probably only useful when calculating odds 'in-play' perhaps such as tie break statistics? I guess unless of course they are playing someone like Karlovic or Roddick where it might be very important. I think what I am trying to say is that it really depends on each match which factors are important. As all the data is there to create all the other stats it was very simple to create the tiebreak stats - which as you say - may be useful in certain instances. One that I have used before is to look at how players play against left handed players' date=' particularly on grass as a good lefty can be very effective if they can use a good slice serve.[/quote'] You can see from that long list that this is one of my potential improvements. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 18, 2007 Author Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Then I'll look into whether I just back the player with the best chance of winning the game. Or Backing the player with a greater than 70% chance of winning the match Or Backing the player I think has a x% better chance of winning the game than the bookies think. i.e chasing value. Any thoughts? Well I think you need to use a mixture of the three that you have said above. Use the Nadal v Roddick match yesterday as an example: 1) Backing the player with the best chance of winning that would be close - Roddick had lower odds but I think Nadal had the best chance... it would depend on what your model churned out but it's going to be a close call - probably no bet. 2) Neither player had a 70% chance of winning so again no bet. 3) Here is what I played with Nadal. I thought Nadal should have been around 1.75 odds and he was 2.04. To me there was a lot of value there, so went in with high stakes. If you used selections 1+2 by themselves you will probably never get value. And I guess the whole point in your system is to identify the games you shouldn't be betting on (ie maybe Federer V Canas this week) Hopefully your system would flag up that Canas came in on good form, winning his previous event, and even though Federer was still overwhelming favourite hopefully it would flag up a 'no bet' or a lay bet on federer. So out of interest, what would your model spit out for the Nadal final? Interesting stuff - and your EPL thread seems to be going well too! Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 18, 2007 Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Sorry Sco, My model isn't even built yet - so i'm not in a position to tell you what I think of the Nadal final. Having watched both semi's I fancy Nadal. He might just have a little bit more about him in the final. Do you have any links to websites that explain how the ranks are calculated - as I understand it depends on defending the points you won last year as well as doing better in tournaments where they didnt win points the previous year. I.E - it would be a disaster rank wise to lose in the first round in wimbledon having won it the previous year..........correct? I'm doing some previous tournaments stats and want to make sure i extract the info relating to a players want to defend their title/points and hence may try harder. I currently don't incorporate the prize money on offer - I'm not sure how or where to do this - any thoughts? Sorry to hijack your thead - tell me if you would prefer to conversate via pm's instead of cluttering up your thread. Cheers Matt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 18, 2007 Author Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... No in this thread is fine! Re: Prize money - I really dont see this as an issue at all. All players should be motivated to win for points and ranking points. The only exception could be lower ranked players, but I would discount that personally... dont want to overcomplicate. The best tennis website by far is www.atptennis.com - it's a great resource and has a load of stats on there. http://www.andymurraynews.com/2007/02/andy-murray-atp-world-ranking.html The above link seems to kind of sum up how it works. So Murray is kind of playing with no pressure at the moment as he has very few points to defend now until Queens club & Wimbledon. Just wondered if your model was up and running like the football one, but no worries if it's not ready! lol. I'd be interesting to see if it consistantly makes a profit. Nice one Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 18, 2007 Author Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Good end to the week with Nadal showing his true class against Djokovic.:nana Will be quiet here until the next tournament in Miami - hope people made some profit off this one. Updated Bank No. of Bets: 9 Starting Bank: £100 Current Bank: £168.68 Profit: £68.68 Current exposure: 0 Good luck all! Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 21, 2007 Author Share Posted March 21, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Bet 10 Miami Open Canas V Henman 3.30 betfair I think a lot has been made of Canas form here. He played well in winning the tournament last month, and yes he beat Federer, but lets not forget that he lost the game after Federer fairly easily. Henman has had a lot of time off, and needs to serve well, but I reckon Henman will be up for this. On a personal note I may trade in this game, starting on Henman and hope he takes the first set, however for the purpose of this thread I will back him. 4 points staked at 3.3. Bet 11 Miami Open Mahut V Volandri 3.20 betfair Mahut to be is a nothing player. I mean just look at the way Henman ripped him apart last month. That said Volandri has had a very poor start to the season, winning a huge 0 games!!! Still, just cant force myself to back Mahut. 2 points staked at 3.2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 23, 2007 Author Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... On a personal note I may trade in this game, starting on Henman and hope he takes the first set, however for the purpose of this thread I will back him. Nicely done Tim, but for the purpose of this thread you lost me money! :wall As it was Betfair, the Volandri bet came through nicely... Updated Bank No. of Bets: 11 Starting Bank: £100 Current Bank: £168.08 Profit: £68.08 Current exposure: 0 A word of warning for tonight - whilst I wouldn't bet against Murray in his match I wouldn't back him at such low odds tonight. He did a lot of talking about how he should have pulled out of the last tournament so I reckon if he felt his injury coming back he may pull out. Just a word of warning. Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 23, 2007 Author Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Safin to beat Lopez Lopez although having a 3-1 record over Lopez is by far the weaker play here IMO. Lopez's last victory was at Wimbledon (I was in the stands) and in fairness he played amazing that whole week. Safin can be tempramental but is a class above Lopez. Neither player setting the world alight this season, but I reckon that 1.62 available on Betfair is a decent enough bet. Sco From the Tennis forum - 20 points staked here 1.62 Sco:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 25, 2007 Author Share Posted March 25, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... The curse of Marat Safin strikes again:spank A few bets today. Djokovic @ 1.15 to beat Llodra - 20 points staked I know small stakes but I class the above as a banker! Djokoviv has been in great form - I expect him to challenge for the title here, so Llodra should be no match. Moya @ 1.56 on Betfair to beat Santoro - 40 points staked. Moya has been on great form this season. Beat Canas & Stephanek in Indian Wells, and took Ferrer to 3 sets who has also been playing good tennis. Very confident of this one - let's just hope he plays as well as he should! 60 points staked in all and expect that all to come back with intrest!! Sco:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... What is Moya playing at!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted March 25, 2007 Author Share Posted March 25, 2007 Re: Sco's Tennis picks... Yep I actually want to kill mr Moya! I didn't have time to post up but sweating a fair amount on Mathieu here - Seriously could do with a win here... although not included in this thread! Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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