Rugby Union Six Nations 2007

[Cymro]

Hi All, Been a long time lurker on this site with the occasional post. Good to see more and more rugby threads on here so I thought why not get some information together on the 6N. Not a fantastic betting tournament I admit but from all the knowledge that is apparent on here we should be able to pick out some nice bets. Latest odds from bet365 are as follows (not sure how to get one of those updating odds tables on the site so if someone could oblige I'd appreciate it, also making the thread a sticky might help): Ireland 6/4 France 11/5 England 7/2 Wales 11/2 Scotland 25/1 Italy 150/1 If we have enough contributors from different countries on here it would be great for each to give their views on their own country (think we may struggle for France and Italy but who knows?). In general terms I see this being a very close and interesting championship with the top 3 in the betting all being capable of beating each other, and Wales and Scotland able to spring a surprise as in recent years. To kick things off I'll give my assessment of Wales' chances. Wales (11/2) 4th Feb Wales vs Ireland 15:00 10th Feb Scotland vs Wales 15:30 24th Feb France vs Wales 20:00 10th March Italy vs Wales 15:30 17th March Wales vs England 17:30 Amazing to think that two years ago this set of fixtures (albeit in a different order) culminated in a surprising but scintillating Grand Slam from the Welsh fans' point of view. Ask any rugby fan in Wales now and they would probably expect no more than two wins from this campaign such is the paucity of our squad following a few injuries and the apparent lack of gameplan under Gareth Jenkins. The two home games are looking tougher and tougher with each passing day and the Ireland game is obviously critical to any hope we have of competing for the title. Even with our best team out I would expect us to struggle against Ireland, as I mentioned there seems to be no direction under Jenkins whereas Ireland know what they have to do and do it well (as their comprehensive victories over Ireland and South Africa showed). The only bright spark at the moment for Wales is Hook but outside him there doesn't appear to be anyone in form, fitness or indeed playing in their rightful position. I'm not even convinced he should be 12 but in the circumstances there is no alternative - the injury situation is so bad we have to choose between Hal Luscombe and Jamie Robinson at outside centre both of whom should not be near the Wales team at present and against D'Arcy and O'Driscoll could get torn to pieces. Another problem for Wales is a certain G Henson, on current form he shouldn't be considered for international rugby yet due to the injuries to others that are well documented he could end up fullback for at least the first game. I've never seen a player so disinterested when things start going wrong but no one seems to have the bottle to drop him for club or country - a kick up the arse is what this boy needs! So... I hope I've made it clear our backs are not going to set the world alight, as for the forwards I think we have fairly impressive front and back rows (with good cover on the bench) but without the grunt in the second row the pack lacks a bit of cohesion. Again, injuries are a problem here. I think our scrum will hold up against most others but we are unlikely to shove people around, and without Sidoli and Evans in the lineout our problems in this area will most likely continue. From a betting perspective I can only see a surprise coming against England (and that is assuming their form does not improve markedly which I suspect may well happen). There may be a few inflated handicaps later on if we lose against Ireland but I would say there is absolutely no value in Wales at the moment. If anything the value is in England but that seems to be disappearing. Will hopefully get the chance to post in detail later in the week, for now though it would be great to hear other fans' views.

[rhodri]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 i might hav a few quid each way with jason robinson 17-1 with 365 for top try scorer, shane williams 16-1 but may be injured for sunday welsh team to be named on thursday

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 Good write up Cymro, honest & well put together. It certainly looks like your boyo's have been hit hard by injuries but come the 17th March if England need to win for the Six Nations it certainly won't be a gimme (I hope to be there with my ginger Welsh Friends!). My idea of top try scorer would be the seemingly rejuvinated Iain Balshaw @28/1 (Paddy Power) or how about an outside punt on HRH Mike Tindall @40/1! Under Brian Ashton the English backs are definately going to see more of the ball & they will certainly be better drilled. I think England will look to build better Back play from behind the best looking England Pack for some time, alot more physical and form players. I hope this doesn't sound like I'm typing through rose tinted glasses but after Leicester showed everyone how to beat Munster I suddenly sat up and took note and after the England team news I started to feel a lot more confident about England's chances. However you bet I hope they are all winners!

[Rafa]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 6/4 is about right for Ireland (I'm Irish). We have France & England at home in an 80,000 stadium (used for GAA sports solely until this year) which will bring a great atmosphere. I don't think we'll win the Grand Slam, I'm not even confident of a Triple Crown but I don't think we'll be far away in the Championship outright. 6/4 is not great value in my eyes (its about right) but like I said I don't think we'll be far away.

[aliando]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 nice to see another welshman on here. being a non-rugby man, can i ask whether the world cup being held this year will have a significant effect upon the 6 nations? my point being, which sides will see this as a last training session for the WC, and which teams will take it seriously 100% and go out to win it? should the likes of france and england be pre-occupied with future events, they may be there for the taking with good odds...

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 Hi aliando, Be careful backing against England (No the rose tinted specs are not being worn!) or even France both sides will want to win all their games and come to think of it so will the other sides. There is a lot of pride at stake in these games and you could argue that this is the toughest competition because of if this pride. The 6/4 on offer against Ireland I think is not bad but considering they were around 3/1 before the Autumn Internationals, in which they beat three average sides (worst Aussie side in a long time, second string S.African outfit & a bunch of South Sea Islanders) you could argue that 6/4 is a little too short. However facing their two main rivals at home is always going to be a bonus so if anyone spots anything above 6/4 please shout loudly. I must also say that Ireland need to start stronger than they did last year as they had a very indifferent start to the 2006 Six Nations.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 I think Italy will start strongly in Rome. In this fixture last year (in Paris) Italy were ahead 12-8 at half-time before Frogs scored 36 points unanswered in second half. Bet365 offer... 1. Italy 'race to 10 points' @ 11-4 at 8pts 2. Higher scoring 2nd half @ 8/11 at 11pts Suggest this will either lead to a tidy(ish) profit; or stake back on Bet 1 is *almost certain* via Bet 2. On the fixed odds handicaps this w/e I suggest: Italy England Ireland :ok

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 hi all, my first post here the bookies only give Wales a 3 point start on Ireland this weekend. although the game is in Cardiff, I think wales will struggle here. we have lost Shanklin, SWilliams and MJones to injury nullifying our attacking strength and defensive wise we leaked 26 points to Canada in the autumn. on the other hand Ireland are favourites for the tournament, beat us 33-5 last year and come off comfortable wins over Australia and South Africa in the autumn (we drew to Aus). Ireland -3 @10/11 (Skybet)

[Football-Tipper]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 Odd year Ireland have France and England @ home so must be big favs

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 it will all depend on how well they adapt to the move to Croke Park stadium (away from Lansdowne Road) they have been highly fancied in the past only to fail to deliver in the big games. still deserved favourites though.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 'Tight-knit' is the big word about Ireland. Deserve favouritism with fixture list as much as anything (but as 2hcb says Croke is pretty much a neutral venue). Can't get excited at the price. One to have a look at is the most points tournie handicap. Ireland are scratch and Italy are +50. Think its Sporting Odds or Bet365. That is worth a pop... ie Italy.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 I'm not so sure about that pie chucker. whilst on the face of it that is a good bet, as it is not an accurate reflection of the respective strengths of the sides, Italy really don't score that many points. also the tournament winners always have a couple of high scoring wins and the lesser teams tend to play out tight low scoring games like Scotland beating Italy 13-10 last year. in every past 6N the team finishing bottom of the table has scored far more than 50pts fewer than the winners. past winners have tended to score about 150-170 pts in total, so you'll need Italy to score 100-120 so 20-30 a game. I don't see them doing that.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 Point taken. However, Italy NOT to finish bottom @ 5-2 at 10pts :)

[zicko]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007

Sport	Rugby
Event	Italy - France
Selection	Italy +14,5
Strength	10/10
Date	03/02/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Nordicbet @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	No doubt that France is a better team and should win this match, and maybe even the tournament, but will they trash Italy? Italy are not as poor as earlier, and took a point last year vs Wales. Also, only lost by 3 points vs Scotland. The fact that this is the opening match, and it is played in Italy makes me believe even more that Italy will be able to put up a good fight (even if they wont win). The 14,5 handicap gives good odds Italy to loose by less than 14,5 points

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 given that France are traditionally poor starters (eg loosing to scotland last year) that seems a good bet. Italy's pack is top notch and although I think they'll still struggle to score points they should provide a stern test for France tomorrow and are likely to be much more up for it at home than the French.

[rugbylad]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007

Sport	Rugby
Event	Italy - France
Selection	Italy +14' date='5
Strength	10/10
Date	03/02/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Nordicbet @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	No doubt that France is a better team and should win this match, and maybe even the tournament, but will they trash Italy? Italy are not as poor as earlier, and took a point last year vs Wales. Also, only lost by 3 points vs Scotland. The fact that this is the opening match, and it is played in Italy makes me believe even more that Italy will be able to put up a good fight (even if they wont win). The 14,5 handicap gives good odds Italy to loose by less than 14,5 points

Have to agree with this one Zicko, good luck mate :ok A belated :welcome to PL 2hcb.....luck forward to hearing more of your thoughts!

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 cheers rugbylad! I've seen your blog, very impressive :clap I don't really like League all that much (never forgive you for stealing Davies, Quinnell and Gibbs off us:cry ;) ) but I'll watch the big games as it's normally quite exciting the 1/100th time there is a line break!! Ray French is a greta commentator too!

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 An Italy win is the bet of the weekend. Like this: Italy win ht/ft @9.00 at 10pts (Centrebet) Worried about their goal-kicking, that's all.

[Football-Tipper]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 :welcome 2hcb to the madhouse :nana Football Tipper :ok

[Conndoh]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 evening all... :loon i reckon france are a gift at 1.18 on the exchanges.... went in big.. :ok good luck whatever u got..... :clap

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 Haven't had an awful lot of time to consider this weekend matches, at first glance Ireland look ridiculously underestimated at a handicap of -2 (Hills) but more on that tomorrow... Going to go against the consensus and back France to beat the handicap of 12.5 against Italy (4/5, Bet365). Not much time for analysis but it would seem France have chosen their form players (Mignoni, Chabal) rather than the big names so there's more chance of a cohesive team effort. Also a good goalkicker is present in Skrela. If they get it right they can destroy Italy, but this is France so I'll probably be cursing them in a couple of hours' time.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 Italy really were dreadful, I expected them to play much better than that and if anyhting they seem to have gone backwards.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 Good call, Cymro. Yeah, Italy were woeful. How Berbezier can turn that performance round I don't know. Not one redeeming area/player. Expect Ireland to boss the line-out, more ball, more points. Ireland to win by 11 to 15 @ 8-1 at 8pts

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 Thanks pie-chucker, like I said never a sure thing with France but until Italy get some attacking flair out wide they will struggle to compete with the more established teams. Unusually solid from France's perspective, not going to scare any of the other teams though I wouldn't have thought. Didn't touch England Scotland although was desperately looking for a man of the match market to bet on Wilkinson and Farrell. Doesn't take much for the BBC guys to get excited about an individual's performance as witnessed yesterday (THAT try! :wall ) so this market might be worth a look in future games if anyone is offering it. Don't like to bet on Wales' games, I'm going along later and am hoping that we can get some forward dominance to restrict Ireland's backs - it would need to be total though with the threats posed by Ireland's outside backs (Horgan's absence is significant though). Apparently we have been watching Leicester's victory in Munster for inspiration, that is great but the problem in trying to copy that is that Leicester have decent second rows. Big game for Gareth Jenkins this, most important since he took over. Yet to be convinced by his team selections (G Jenkins, Horsman, Wyn Jones; Sweeney and G Thomas on bench), this is another example it would seem. Hope I'm wrong later this evening.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 well Ireland beat the cap and I won my bet, but I am still gutted:cry . how the ref didn't give a penalty try for the Czekaj incident I don't know. we dominated the game but gifted them all 3 of their tries :wall and they cynicly slowed the game down and were lucky not to get anyone sin binned. as for that incident when O'Gara ran up and tackled Hook before play had started then the ref gives a penalty AGAINST Hook :@ :@ :@ we really need to get some of our backs fit again.

[Citizen Kane]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 I'm on England @ 3.85 for the triple crown. Although they are to play Wales and Ireland away I think it will all rest on the Irish game so 3.85 effectively HTH with Ireland has tempted me. I expect England to gain a fair bit of momentum against Italy and think teh Irish could struggle against the French this week. Accordingly I am also taking the +4.5 on France this week. 1pt England Triple Crown @ 3.85 (Centrebet) 1pt France +4.5 @ 1.90 (Centrebet) Cheers CK

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 Off to Scotland tomorrow so forced into making my selections earlier than I would like. I think France look outstanding value at 6/4 (Bet365) against Ireland, home advantage is less of a factor with the move to Croke Park, it'll probably be equally difficult for both teams to adapt and the Lansdowne Road conditions have been well used by Ireland in the past and particularly O'Gara so this could reduce any potential advantage. If O'Driscoll misses out on this game I would be very confident of this bet landing, not his biggest fan but watching him live you realise just how much work he gets through (he and D'Arcy are like extra flankers). France on the other hand I was impressed with purely by how steady they were, not very French at all! The Mignoni-Chabal combination was excellent and I think they need to be on top form to exploit a potential weak area for Ireland (Stringer can disappear under pressure). The scrums will be interesting, everyone is saying how "Crouch, Touch, Pause, Engage" has depowered them I'm not so sure but I certainly expect France to do a better job on Hayes et al than Wales did. I envisage this being a very tight match so will happily back France at these odds.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 If I take Franc it'll be with the cap. I can see Ireland winning a close one. Alot depends on whether O'Driscoll plays or not, I won't bet until that's announced.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 Wet and windy Twickenham. Italy +13 half time (blsq) Don't think much of Scotland Wales -4 (bet365) BoD looking doubtful. Close game. France + 6 (stanjames)

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby Union Six Nations 2007 ok my best pick of the weekend last time was against my countrymen, this time it is for them. Scotland didn't look great against England and have always struggled to bring attacking thrust to their game, relying on kicking which plays into the hands of Wales' counterattacking style. Wales created enough opportunities to beat Ireland last week and with Mark Jones back it's likely that a couple will be finished off this time. Scotland might not be as strong as Ireland at the break down so Wales should get more quick ball to exploit which is what the team thrives on. Last time at Murrayfield Wales put 40pts on the Scots and although I expect it to be much closer this time I think we could well pull away at the end and win fairly comfortably at the end as i was encouraged by what I saw against Ireland. Wales -5 @ 10/11 (skybet)