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A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th


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Re: A League RD 20 Jan 11-14

CC have been poor lately and NZ have won the last two. Obvious pick would be take NZ but i'm going against the flow and taking CC -1.5 (2.15). Simply they need to get out of their funk and win to get a top 4 spot. A draw or loss and i don't think they will be there at the end
Another game of missed chances, crossbars and cleard off-the-line :wall
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Re: A League RD 20 Jan 11-14

Another game of missed chances' date=' crossbars and cleard off-the-line :wall[/quote'] I think a draw was a fair result....if you don't score goals you don't win matches:rollin either way I got money in my pocket from the match:lol
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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th

;685243']I'm laying some big money on the over here. Hope QLD can score' date=' Morie has been shit for the Roar.[/quote'] I wonder what the odds would be for Mori (rabbie lips) is to score the first or last goal:unsure
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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th Not sure if you guys watched the Melbourne/Queensland game or not, but from the last few posts I would think you must not have seen it. Melbourne were not shite or lacking motivation at all...I was at the game and it was a pretty good game in my opinion...Both sides attacking hard and could have been many more goals...Melbourne should have scored 4 goals but the Roar keeper was saving everything...He made some spectacular saves...He could have saved Saddam Hussain last night if given the chance...As Ice said in an earlier post...If you can't score enogh goals then you can't win the game. Melbourne had 15 shots for the game which is about 50% up on their normal shot rate at home, and they had 7 shots saved by the keeper, so they were attacking more than normal...Melbourne usually score a goal every 4.8 shots at home, and last night they had 15 shots, so one would have expected them to score at least three, but it wasn't to be. The Roar also had 15 shots for the game, so both sides had plenty of shots and Melbourne had possession 55% of the time. It wasn't that they were lacking in motivation, it was they were lacking in goals. Melbourne have been brilliant all season with their shot for goal conversion rate, but if that falters in the finals then they are more likely to get beaten than any other team because their average shots per game is ranked 7th in the League. As for Queensland...They played some good football last night and are a smokey if they make the finals...Farina has them playing good football, and apart from the Knights 3-1 drubbing, the Roar have beaten Mariners, Adelaide and Melbourne in their last four games...Handy form I am sure you will agree...At this point in time the best two teams in the league on recent form are the Knights and Queensland, which is hard to believe on early season form.

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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th I saw most of it BJ. I wouldn't say Melbourne lacked motivation as they played pretty well, but I still think that at the end Queensland wanted it more and that it played a big part. Although to be fair, they wouldn't have even been in a situation to win it had they not played so well. As for early season form, Qld started pretty well and were 2nd after 7-8 rounds. I even backed them outright after their win over NZ :wall

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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th Last 5 games played by all teams

Played

W

D

L

GF

GA

+/-

PTS

1

Melb

5

2

2

1

9

5

4

9

2

Roar

5

3

0

2

7

9

-2

9

3

Sydney

5

2

2

1

3

1

2

8

4

Jets

5

2

2

1

7

6

1

8

5

NZ K

5

2

2

1

5

6

-1

8

6

Adelaide

5

1

2

2

5

7

-2

5

7

CC Mar

5

1

1

3

4

6

-2

4

8

Perth

5

0

2

3

2

5

-3

2

In the last 5 rounds Melbourne and Sydney have held their usual positions amongst the Top 4 sides. Queensland and the Knights have improved markedly in recent weeks, while Adelaide and the Mariners have dropped somewhat

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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th Sydney v Adelaide H2H:

Nov 19, 2006 A-League Sydney FC Adelaide Utd 2 - 1
Oct 02, 2006 A-League Adelaide Utd Sydney FC 1 - 4
Aug 11, 2006 A-League Sydney FC Adelaide Utd 1 - 2
Feb 19, 2006 A-League Sydney FC Adelaide Utd 2 - 1
Feb 12, 2006 A-League Adelaide Utd Sydney FC 2 - 2
Feb 03, 2006 A-League Sydney FC Adelaide Utd 2 - 1
Nov 27, 2005 A-League Adelaide Utd Sydney FC 3 - 2
Oct 09, 2005 A-League Sydney FC Adelaide Utd 2 - 1
Adelaide's recent home games:
Jan 04, 2007 A-League Adelaide Utd Queensl. Roar 0 - 1
Dec 15, 2006 A-League Adelaide Utd Newcastle Jets 3 - 2
Dec 10, 2006 A-League Adelaide Utd NZ Knights 1 - 1
Dec 01, 2006 A-League Adelaide Utd Melb. Victory 1 - 3
Nov 05, 2006 A-League Adelaide Utd Perth Glory 3 - 2
Oct 22, 2006 A-League Adelaide Utd NZ Knights 4 - 2
Oct 06, 2006 A-League Adelaide Utd CC Mariners 3 - 1
Oct 02, 2006 A-League Adelaide Utd Sydney FC 1 - 4
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals is looking very strong here. Both teams need the win for their fight for finals berths, but looking at the stats goals would appear to be the more obvious bets. With so much on the line though, both teams could play more defensive. Adelaide last week created a lot of chances, but youngster Nathan Burns was unable to finish many great chances. Both teams lost at home last week.
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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th

Team

P

W

D

L

F

A

GD

PTS

1. Melbourne Victory FC

20

14

3

3

41

16

25

45

2. Sydney FC

19

8

7

4

28

17

11

28

3. Queensland Roar FC

20

8

4

8

24

26

-2

28

4. Adelaide United FC

19

8

3

8

28

26

2

27

5. Newcastle Jets FC

19

7

5

7

25

27

-2

26

6. CentralCoast Mariners FC

20

6

6

8

21

23

-2

24

7. Perth Glory FC

19

5

4

10

21

25

-4

19

8. New Zealand Knights FC

20

4

4

12

11

39

-28

16

* Playing today and in finals contention

Some big games today in the A League with the winners guaranteed to climb the A League Ladder and be in line for a finals spot with next weeks final round fast approaching.

Sydney; –A win will have them 3 points clear in second spot and a guaranteed finals spot with their great goal difference. –A loss will see them maybe hold second, or drop to 3rd should either Adelaide or the Jets win today

Adelaide; –A win will see them 2 points clear in second spot and they would then only need a draw or a win next week to secure a finals spot. –A loss will see them maybe hold 4th should the Jets lose to Perth. If the Jets win then Adelaide will be in 5th spot and they will then need to beat the Mariners next week and hope other teams lose to allow them to sneak into the Top 4. With the Roar playing Sydney and the Jets playing Melbourne next week, that may just happen.

Jets; –A win will see the Jets into the Top 4 and they will then need to at least draw or beat Melbourne next week. –A loss will see the Jets under severe pressure to make the Top 4, depending on the Adelaide V Sydney result.

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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th

Sydney v Adelaide H2H: Over 2.5 goals is 100% Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals is looking very strong here. Both teams need the win for their fight for finals berths, but looking at the stats goals would appear to be the more obvious bets. With so much on the line though, both teams could play more defensive. Adelaide last week created a lot of chances, but youngster Nathan Burns was unable to finish many great chances. Both teams lost at home last week.
Yeh on past performances the Overs is at 100% with no game ever being Under 2.5 goals in all their meetings so far. So it is either going to keep going the same way or neither side will score and be Unders. Guessing game really but stats point to a mighty Over 2.5 goals chance with their recent records for high scoring games. Nice pickup Oscar :ok Well Crouch :loon
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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th To a limited point BJ, I agree that overs is a bit of a coin flip. When you consider that both teams lost their last game (at home) to NZ and Qld respectively, though, picking a winner would seem to be a bit of a guessing game atm. Yeah, had the name change. Most of my other forum aliases are CP, so figured I'd just have it the same.

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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th Adelaide United v Sydney FC Date: Sunday January 14 Kick-off (local time): 5.30pm Venue: Hindmarsh Stadium Radio coverage: LIFE FM (Adelaide) 107.9FM Open Winamp or Windows Media Player and choose "File" - "Open URL" and copy and paste the following into the dialogue box. http://radio.internode.on.net:8040 Head-to-head Seven league meetings: Sydney - 5 wins, Adelaide - 1 win, 1 draw Previous meeting Sydney 2 Adelaide 1 (Aussie Stadium, Hyundai A-League round 13, November 2006) Last five results Adelaide: Loss - Draw - Win - Draw - Loss Sydney: Draw - Draw - Win - Win - Loss Analysis Adelaide United has had 10 days to stew over its result against Queensland and reflect on how, teamed with the Knights' upset win in Sydney, the side passed up a glorious opportunity of snatching second place with two rounds remaining. Coach John Kosmina, however, is concentrating on the positives and rightly claims that a victory over its arch-nemesis on Sunday at Hindmarsh Stadium will have the same effect and leave Adelaide's destiny this season in its own hands. There is a ring of last year about this encounter mind you. As in Round 21 then, Sydney needs to win to virtually guarantee second spot ahead of the Newcastle Jets and a chance of hosting the Grand Final. Last year, the eventual champion did exactly that - 2-1 at Aussie Stadium courtesy of Alvin Ceccoli's blockbuster - before overturning the out-of-touch premiers over two legs in the major semi-final. Adelaide came into that clash on the back of a couple of indifferent results too after having previously wrapped up the premiership with three rounds to spare. And this year it is again facing a determined Sydney outfit which suffered only its first loss in 10 games against the New Zealanders. It will be interesting to see how new Brazilian-born signing Diego, who has already been training with the group for a month, fits into Kosmina's plans for this weekend's clash. Kosmina watched his side squander a host of chances against the Roar with Nathan Burns, the best player on the park, guilty of missing two gilt-edged chances and Diego, who has initially joined the club as cover for Chinese striker Shengqing Qu, could provide an added dimension on that front. Midfielder Greg Owens faces a late fitness test on his injured groin. Sydney coach Terry Butcher added captain Mark Rudan to the 15 which was defeated by New Zealand last weekend with Rudan expected to replace 21-year-old Jacob Timpano at the heart of the defence. Jeremy Brockie also loses his spot in the squad with Robbie Middleby's return from a calf problem. Review from A League Website

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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets Date: Sunday January 14 Kick-off (local time): 6.00pm Venue: Members Equity Stadium TV coverage: Live on Fox Sports 3 (SKY Sport 1 in NZ) Radio coverage: SportFM (Perth) 90.5FM - http://www.905.com.au/ ABC 1233 Newcastle (1233AM) - http://abc.net.au/newcastle/football/ 990AM Information Radio (Perth) - http://www.inforadio.com.au/ Head-to-head Five league meetings: Perth - 4 wins, Newcastle - 1 win Previous meeting Perth 2 Newcastle 1 (Members Equity Stadium, Hyundai A-League round 13, November 2006) Last five results Perth: Loss - Loss - Loss - Draw - Draw Newcastle: Draw - Win - Loss - Loss - Win Analysis Bobby Despotovski will draw the line under a 264-match top-flight career on Sunday when he shrugs off an ongoing back complaint to play some part in the Glory's clash with the visiting Jets. The inaugural Johnny Warren Medallist hasn’t featured since Perth's 1-0 defeat to Queensland in early December through injury but always vowed to farewell the Glory fans after 10 seasons of loyal service. After scoring eight times in 19 appearances last season to claim a share of the Golden Boot, Despotovski has managed just seven starts this term and finishes without seeing Perth make the Hyundai A-League finals. In his absence, captain Jamie Harnwell has done a decent job in attack and last week was joined up front by recent short-term signing Nikita Rukavytsya who has a handful of appearances in Qantas Young Socceroos squads in the past 12 months to his name. Rukavytsya keeps his place although Mimi Saric is dropped despite confirmation Ron Smith's other primary options on the left wing, Stan Lazaridis and Naum Sekulovski, are out for the season after groin and shoulder surgery last week. Mark Robertson (thigh) and Stuart Young (groin) are also unavailable so Jeremy Christie finds his way back into the Glory squad. The Jets, which need a victory to stay in contention for second, have remained free of major injury to the delight of Gary van Egmond although the coach has neglected to give captain Paul Okon an early recall after a month on the sidelines with a quad tear. Van Egmond will save Okon for next week's crunch decider at home to premier Melbourne even though midfield lynchpin Stuart Musialik also misses the trip to Western Australia through suspension. The impressive Musialik, who has not missed a game since September, received his fourth caution of the campaign last week in the win over the Mariners. Labinot Haliti and Steven Old do, though, make the travelling party to face a Perth outfit keen to extend its four-match unbeaten streak at Members Equity.

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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th

To a limited point BJ, I agree that overs is a bit of a coin flip. When you consider that both teams lost their last game (at home) to NZ and Qld respectively, though, picking a winner would seem to be a bit of a guessing game atm. Yeah, had the name change. Most of my other forum aliases are CP, so figured I'd just have it the same.
Nice touch on the Crouch ;) Makes for some interesting games today as Sydney face Queensland in QLD next week so two hard away games to hold their spot in the Top 4. The Knights loss could prove to be decisive for Queensland, as it is a game they would have pencilled in as a win, and they lost both games to the Knights, so it is basically a 12 point turnaround because most teams beat the Knights during the season. It is great to see the Knights doing so well now and hopefully that can have them up and running as a competitive unit next year. Recent results indicate they are more than competitive and can easily hold their own. The Jets game today is a bit if a worry as they have always struggled against Perth. The Glory have been their bogeyside and it is a cause for conecern for those considering the Jets as a wager. It is an evening game though and that will assist Newcastle in what should be an entertaining encounter.
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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th Just in case I fall asleep or something (been up all night with the European matches) I will post my bets for tonight's games: Adelaide v Sydney 7pts Over 2.5 Goals @ 2 Betfair The H2H between these two teams is full of goals and Adelaide at Hindmarsh also sees plenty of goals (see earlier post for the statistical strength of this bet) 1pt Correct Score Adelaide 3-2 @ 34 Sportingbet I fancy Adelaide to maybe nick this game. They lost at home to Sydney last time but that was when Benito Carbone produced an inspiring performance. As goals are fancied it was either 3-2 or 2-1. I'm greedy so went for the bigger odds. The other two previous games when Adelaide hosted Sydney, the scorelines were 3-2 and 2-2, so there is a bit of form there as well. 1pt Nathan Burns First Goalscorer @ 9 Sportingbet Burns has had some guilt edge chances in recent games, most notably against Queensland 2 weeks ago. I think it's only a matter of time before he scores and I'll hope that he will open the scoring tonight. Perth v Newcastle 1pt Correct Score Perth 3-0 @ 29 Centrebet No great reasoning behind this bet, except that I think Perth are a strong chance tonight and that the odds are too high. This bet is actually available for 34 at Sportingbet but when I checked I read it as 24 and placed it with Centrebet :wall Probably wont win though, so no harm in my stupidity. Best of luck to everyone who has a bet tonight. :hope

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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th Adelaide United Vs Sydney FC

Past matches

Nov 19, 2006

A-League

Sydney FC

2 - 1

Adelaide Utd

Oct 02, 2006

A-League

Adelaide Utd

1 - 4

Sydney FC

Aug 11, 2006

A-League

Sydney FC

1 - 2

Adelaide Utd

Feb 19, 2006

A-League

Sydney FC

2 - 1

Adelaide Utd

Feb 12, 2006

A-League

Adelaide Utd

2 - 2

Sydney FC

Feb 03, 2006

A-League

Sydney FC

2 - 1

Adelaide Utd

Nov 27, 2005

A-League

Adelaide Utd

3 - 2

Sydney FC

Oct 09, 2005

A-League

Sydney FC

2 - 1

Adelaide Utd

Sydney have a commanding 5-1-2 head to head record against Adelaide overall, but at Hindmarsh in Adelaide it is 1-1-1 so this game could go either way.

Last 8

Games

M

W

D

L

P

F

A

Adelaide

Home

8

4

1

3

13

16

16

Sydney

Away

8

3

4

1

13

10

6

At home Adelaide score plenty of goals, but they can also concede a few as well. Sydney have only had the one loss at home in their last 8 games, and that was against the Mariners. Adelaide’s losses were to Queensland, Melbourne and Sydney.

Shots per Goal

Team

Shots

Goals

Shots per goal

Games

Shots per Game

Total

Adelaide

267

28

9.5

19

14

Total

Sydney

248

28

8.9

19

13

Team

Shots

Goals

Shots per goal

Games

Shots per Game

Home

Adelaide

168

24

7.0

10

17

Away

Sydney

105

12

8.8

9

12

Both these sides have similar stats when it comes to shots per goal. This indicates to me that the team that is better value is probably the better bet.

Owens and new recruit Diego are apparently starting for Adelaide, with Diego on the bench, not sure who is going to be replaced. Petrovski is likely to miss for Sydney while Mark Rudan makes a welcome return into defence.

Current Odds

1

X

2

Adelaide

2.40

3.25

2.70

Sydney

Have no time for a proper review and I fancy Sydney here with the return of Rodan into their defence and the fact they have only lost three games this season. At the very worst they are a great +1 bet but I like the $2-70 on offer at Centrebet. Sydney are great value here for a team that has only lost one away game in it’s last eight, and only 3 games for the season, and they have a superior head to head record against Adelaide since the A League’s inception.

BET Sydney Straight Out to Win @ $2-70 Sydney Draw No Bet @ $1-97

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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th Perth Glory Vs Newcastle Jets Have no time to do anymore than I am here, and that is provide shot stats for these two teams. Head to head records can be found anywhere and Oscar may be able to pur some in this afternoon. Shots Per Goal

Team

Shots

Goals

Shots per goal

Games

Shots per Game

Total

Perth

284

21

13.5

19

15

Total

Jets

271

25

10.8

19

14

Team

Shots

Goals

Shots per goal

Games

Shots per Game

Home

Perth

168

14

12.0

9

19

Away

Jets

140

13

10.8

10

14

Perth average nearly 19 shots a game at home and that is very high, but they have a conversion rate of over 12 shots per goal. The Jets conversion rate is much better and this is another game where it may pay to take value because both sides can have plenty of shots, it is who converts that will win.

Current Odds

1

X

2

Perth

2.95

3.30

2.20

Jets

Having a crack at Perth here who are at great odds considering the way they play at home. They are coming off a 2-2 draw with Melbourne and confidence will be high. Perth also have a commanding head to head record against the Jets in the A League and value here for mine.

Bet

Perth Straight out to Win @ $2-95

Perth Draw No Bet @ $2-17

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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th I fancy the jets to take all three points tonight as I believe they have alot more to play for & the win is vital to ensuring that they cement a top 4 spot going into next week. Prediction: Newcastle win @ $2.27 with centrebet Strength: 7/10 Wager: Medium Predition: First goal Scorer Coveny @ $7.00 Strength: 5/10 Wager: Small

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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th FT: Adelaide 1 - 0 Sydney 89m Fernando 11 Shots to Adelaide and 10 to Sydney, and Adelaide convert to win this and Sydney are on shaky ground and must beat Queensland Roar next week now. HT: Perth Glory 1 - 1 Newcastle Jets 12m N Carle (NJ) 43m S Colosimo (pen) (PG) Jets started off brightly but before halftime they were looking very tired and Perth were all over them like a rash. The Jets need to win this to have any chance at finals football, but they are not looking so flash at the moment.

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Re: A-League Round 20 - Thursday 11th January - Sunday 14th FT Perth Glory 3 - 3 Newcastle Jets 12' N. Carle (NJ) 43' S. Colosimo (pen) (PG) 79' J. Harnwell (PG) 81' J. Magdic (PG) 90' J. Griffiths (NJ) 90' J. Griffiths (NJ) My Bets

Perth Straight out to Win @ $2-95

Perth Draw No Bet @ $2-17 At 89m I turned the TV over to watch Miami Ink cos the game was over and finally had a nice collect for the year. Flicked back to the soccer when an add come on and the Jets had scored a late goal at 92m or so, game still over but thought i would watch the last few seconds. Jets go forward and Griffiths kicks his second goal in injury time...What the??? :beer How can Perth go from 3-1 up at the 90m mark and then have a 3-3 draw? :spank

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