Matthew Posted January 4, 2007 Share Posted January 4, 2007 All, In the same vein as my predict the premiership thread: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=37165 I've done the same for the Spanish League (top flight only). Read my other thread for specific details of the approach and what goes into it. Simple recap: Loads of variables spanning 6 seasons are put into a statistical package which generates a probability for a HW, D or AW. Simply taking the most likely outcome is not enough to be profitable - I need to be selective - to do this I set hurdles that the probabilities have to get over. These differ for each outcome. Onto the interesting bit.............the cutoffs as they stand have only picked AW to date. The spanish top flite is a bit different to the english top flight in that more games end in a draw or aw. If you had blindly backed the AW at level stakes this year then you would be 8.45pts up based on a 1pt per game level staking strategy. A yield of 5.3% and a strike rate of 31.4%. Average AW odds in the spanish top flight season to date are 4.33 (min. 1.45 & max. 15). So I think there is a bit of value in the old AW in Spain. Season to date using the cutoffs described above and level staking 1pt per game things would look like this. Stake£75.00Returm£98.87Profit£23.87SR36.0%Yield (%)31.8%HW Odds:#DIV/0!D Odds:#DIV/0!AW Odds:4.54 That to me looks pretty healthy - although I owe a lot to Recreativo beating Madrid in their own back yard. Simple thing is - Madrid do this - yet the bookies refuse to adjust the odds. I saw Mallorca thrash the 3-0 at the bernabeu a few years back - although a little known player called Samuel E'to did all the damage that game. Wondered off a bit there. Lets see how I get on........ Next fixtures: 06/01/2007Ath MadridVGimnastic06/01/2007SociedadVOsasuna06/01/2007ZaragozaVSevilla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 4, 2007 Share Posted January 4, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tradegy Hey plopplop - good luck with this. One possible problem that you may already have identified is the long odds winner. Have you back tested to see if the stats hold up by removing (e.g) the top 10% highest odds winners in order to try to even out any statistical anomaly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 4, 2007 Author Share Posted January 4, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tradegy davidc, Just so I am clear in what your asking. I should remove the top 10% (I "have" made 75 bets to date, so lets call it 8 bets) of my winning bets. This will cripple my p+l and undoubtedly send me negative. I don't think that's a fair test - unless I removed the bottom 10% also. I think a fairer test would be to remove the top 10% longest bets (i.e 8 bets with highest odds that I bet on - regardless of whether they won or not). For instance I didn't get the Barca v Recreativo match right when recreativo were 15.0. I'll look into both scenarios and post the results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 4, 2007 Share Posted January 4, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tradegy Plopplop, It probably would be better to remove some of the highest odds and perhaps some of the lowest odds for back testing, especially if these odds are very different to the average odds. Although I am not by any means a statistical expert, and my reasonong could be flawed, I would worry that the results may be too heavily reliant on 2 or 3 high odds winners and if these turned out to be statistical anomalies then the system could be flawed. You have a good enough sample size by going back over 6 years, so it looks like ther could be some value, but although high odds winners are nice when they come along, if the system relies on them for its profit then you could have a long run with little or no profit. These are only my thoughts, perhaps other people will have differing views, but I wish you good luck and will follow with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 4, 2007 Author Share Posted January 4, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tradegy Thoughts are thoughts and they are as valid as the next persons........ Removing the top eight predictions with the longest odds that won: Stake£67.00Returm£50.87Profit-£16.13SR28.4%Yield (%)-24.1%HW Odds:#DIV/0!D Odds:#DIV/0!AW Odds:4.37 As predicted, this sends my profit through the floor and I still maintain this isn't fair as when placing the bets I didn't know the results so why should i censor the results in this way. A fairer test is to remove the top 8 predictions with the longest odds regardless of the outcome: Stake£67.00Returm£80.37Profit£13.37SR37.3%Yield (%)20.0%HW Odds:#DIV/0!D Odds:#DIV/0!AW Odds:3.82 This still looks quite healthy. What if I don't bet above 5.00: Stake£53.00Returm£63.87Profit£10.87SR41.5%Yield (%)20.5%HW Odds:#DIV/0!D Odds:#DIV/0!AW Odds:3.17 A slighty better yield due to lower number of bets - but lower profit. Uber conservative now - only include bets that have odds Stake£11.00Returm£18.22Profit£7.22SR81.8%Yield (%)65.6%HW Odds:#DIV/0!D Odds:#DIV/0!AW Odds:2.03 Now thats just silly - but very very interesting......... This one is just a bit of fun - the premiership one is more serious and reliable in my eyes - just thought i'd see how this one goes. BET MONEY AT YOUR OWN RISK - I AM DOING THIS SOLELY AS A PAPER TRIAL. I'd welcome anyone's opinions..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 5, 2007 Author Share Posted January 5, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy Its a long shot first time out: DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type06/01/2007Ath Madrid v GimnasticAWbetfair12.5system odds are 11.5 after betfair commision. 10pt staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 5, 2007 Share Posted January 5, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy Good luck, plopplop. You've got some interesting stats when you refine them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 6, 2007 Author Share Posted January 6, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy Thanks davidc. I agree, I might back the away team when they are have odds of 2.5 or less with money. More than 1 on the same day will be a double for me at my local bookies. Gimnastic didn't lose - despite being so long. Staked:£10.00Returned:£0.00P+L:-£10.00Strike Rate:0.0%Yield:-100.0%Avg HW Odds:#DIV/0!Avg D Odds:#DIV/0!Avg AW Odds:11.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 7, 2007 Author Share Posted January 7, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy The only game I had down today as a selection has already kicked off......... I didnt realise the KO times for La Liga.......Lessons learnt especially when my only pick is: DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type07/01/2007Mallorca v Ath BilbaoAWTooSlowOops This will not count towards the records. Best odds available according to football-data were 3.3 from Interwetten. :wall :@ :wall :@ :wall :@ :@ :@ ...........:puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type13/01/2007Valencia v LevanteAWBet3659.5SYSTEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 14, 2007 Author Share Posted January 14, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type13/01/2007Valencia v LevanteAWBet3659.5SYSTEM Rightfully a long shot. Staked:£20.00Returned:£0.00P+L:-£20.00Strike Rate:0.0%Yield:-100.0%Avg HW Odds:#DIV/0!Avg D Odds:#DIV/0!Avg AW Odds:10.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 14, 2007 Author Share Posted January 14, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type14/01/2007Ath Bilbao v VillarrealAWPremierBet3.75SYSTEM14/01/2007Gimnastic v GetafeAWExpekt2.65SYSTEM14/01/2007Osasuna v BetisAWExpekt3.9SYSTEM14/01/2007Santander v SociedadAWPaddyPower3.6SYSTEM 10pt staked on each match. 40pt in all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 14, 2007 Author Share Posted January 14, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type14/01/2007Ath Bilbao v VillarrealAWPremierBet3.75SYSTEM:nana 14/01/2007Gimnastic v GetafeAWExpekt2.65SYSTEM:nana 14/01/2007Osasuna v BetisAWExpekt3.9SYSTEM:wall 14/01/2007Santander v SociedadAWPaddyPower3.6SYSTEM:wall 10pt staked on each match. 40pt in all. Staked:£60.00Returned:£64.00P+L:£4.00Strike Rate:33.3%Yield:6.7%Avg HW Odds:#DIV/0!Avg D Odds:#DIV/0!Avg AW Odds:5.82 :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana The right side of zero!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 21, 2007 Author Share Posted January 21, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy - Strike Rate 33.3% - Yield 6.7% DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type21/01/2007Betis v SantanderAWPremierBet4SYSTEM21/01/2007Getafe v CeltaAW10Bet3.67SYSTEM21/01/2007Sociedad v ValenciaAWBet3652.1SYSTEM21/01/2007Zaragoza v RecreativoAWBetFred4.33SYSTEM 4 x 10pts. 40pts staked in total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 21, 2007 Author Share Posted January 21, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy - Strike Rate 33.3% - Yield 6.7% DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type21/01/2007Betis v SantanderAWPremierBet4SYSTEM :wall 21/01/2007Getafe v CeltaAW10Bet3.67SYSTEM :wall 21/01/2007Sociedad v ValenciaAWBet3652.1SYSTEM:nana 21/01/2007Zaragoza v RecreativoAWBetFred4.33SYSTEM:wall 4 x 10pts. 40pts staked in total. Damn you Mr Xisco for equalising for Betis. Turned a nice days work into a costly one. It was good to see that the pick with odds Staked:£100.00Returned:£85.00P+L:-£15.00Strike Rate:30.0%Yield:-15.0%Avg HW Odds:#DIV/0!Avg D Odds:#DIV/0!Avg AW Odds:4.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 26, 2007 Author Share Posted January 26, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type27/01/2006Ath Madrid v SantanderAWbluesq5.5SYSTEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 28, 2007 Author Share Posted January 28, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type28/01/2007Gimnastic v EspanolAWPortlandBet2.3SYSTEM28/01/2007Zaragoza v La CorunaAWVCBet4.5SYSTEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 28, 2007 Author Share Posted January 28, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type27/01/2006Ath Madrid v SantanderAWbluesq5.5SYSTEM:wall DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type28/01/2007Gimnastic v EspanolAWPortlandBet2.3SYSTEM:wall 28/01/2007Zaragoza v La CorunaAWVCBet4.5SYSTEM:wall Not a great weekend..........late equaliser for zaragoza spoils it!!!! Staked:£130.00Returned:£85.00P+L:-£45.00Strike Rate:23.1%Yield:-34.6%Avg HW Odds:#DIV/0!Avg D Odds:#DIV/0!Avg AW Odds:4.72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 28, 2007 Share Posted January 28, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy Not a great weekend..........late equaliser for zaragoza spoils it!!!! It was so close ....80 min. :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted February 2, 2007 Author Share Posted February 2, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type03/02/2007Valencia v Ath MadridAWBet3654.5SYSTEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted February 25, 2007 Author Share Posted February 25, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type03/02/2007Valencia v Ath MadridAWBet3654.5SYSTEM:wall Staked:£140.00Returned:£85.00P+L:-£55.00Strike Rate:21.4%Yield:-39.3%Avg HW Odds:#DIV/0!Avg D Odds:#DIV/0!Avg AW Odds:4.70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted February 25, 2007 Author Share Posted February 25, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 1, 2007 Author Share Posted March 1, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type03/03/2007Sevilla v BarcelonaAWLadbrokes2.75SYSTEM03/03/2007Valencia v CeltaAWStan James8.5SYSTEM I won't be posting anything for Sundays games as I am out of the country so won't be able to update things after these games. I'll post the thoughts of the model when I get back - like the post above. 2 x 10pt bets = 20pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 9, 2007 Author Share Posted March 9, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type03/03/2007Sevilla v BarcelonaAWLadbrokes2.75SYSTEM:wall 03/03/2007Valencia v CeltaAWStan James8.5SYSTEM:wall I won't be posting anything for Sundays games as I am out of the country so won't be able to update things after these games. I'll post the thoughts of the model when I get back - like the post above. 2 x 10pt bets = 20pts staked Staked:£160.00Returned:£85.00P+L:-£75.00Strike Rate:18.8%Yield:-46.9%Avg HW Odds:#DIV/0!Avg D Odds:#DIV/0!Avg AW Odds:4.82 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 10, 2007 Author Share Posted March 10, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type04/03/2007Recreativo v Ath MadridAWGamebookers2.6SYSTEM:wall04/03/2007Zaragoza v SociedadAWInterwetten7SYSTEM:wall 2 losers again. As my successful period duriing my 3 week hols.....it won't count towards the stats. Nothing for tonight. Back tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 10, 2007 Author Share Posted March 10, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy What a game between Barca and Real M!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type11/03/2007Celta v Ath BilbaoAWExpekt3.4SYSTEM11/03/2007Gimnastic v SevillaAWBlueSq1.62SYSTEM11/03/2007Osasuna v ValenciaAWExpekt2.25SYSTEM 3 x 10pt bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy What a game between Barca and Real M!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type11/03/2007Celta v Ath BilbaoAWExpekt3.4SYSTEM:wall 11/03/2007Gimnastic v SevillaAWBlueSq1.62SYSTEM:wall 11/03/2007Osasuna v ValenciaAWExpekt2.25SYSTEM:wall 3 x 10pt bets Grrrrrrrrr.......... Staked:£190.00Returned:£85.00P+L:-£105.00Strike Rate:15.8%Yield:-55.3%Avg HW Odds:#DIV/0!Avg D Odds:#DIV/0!Avg AW Odds:4.44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy I am lazy...........I can't deny that, so imagine my disappointment at not predicting todays Spanish games.........:wall :wall :wall DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type17/03/2007Ath Bilbao v OsasunaAWSportingBet3.2SYSTEM17/03/2007Mallorca v BetisAWGamebookers3SYSTEM17/03/2007Recreativo v BarcelonaAWLadbrokes1.72SYSTEM17/03/2007Valencia v SantanderAWInterwetten7SYSTEM Harsh lessons learnt. Osasuna, Barca & Santander all win!!!!! What would have been. Staked:£40.00Returned:£119.20P+L:£79.20Strike Rate:75.0%Yield:198.0%Avg HW Odds:#DIV/0!Avg D Odds:#DIV/0!Avg AW Odds:3.73 AAAAAAaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrgggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!! These won't count toward the thread stats..............but i shall be predicting all games in the future when possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 18, 2007 Author Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type18/03/2007Villarreal v SociedadAWToteSport5.5SYSTEM 1 x 10pt staked. Lets hope for another long winner......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 19, 2007 Author Share Posted March 19, 2007 Re: A Spanish Tragedy DateMatchPredictionBookieOddsBet Type18/03/2007Villarreal v SociedadAWToteSport5.5SYSTEM:wall 1 x 10pt staked. Lets hope for another long winner......... Bag o @rse Staked:£200.00Returned:£85.00P+L:-£115.00Strike Rate:15.0%Yield:-57.5%Avg HW Odds:#DIV/0!Avg D Odds:#DIV/0!Avg AW Odds:4.49 Losing streak stands at 11 - if only I had bothered yesterday!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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