The Times "Finktank" predictions

[robsterling]

I know a lot of people have rating systems which show value on this site and some are profitable, but was just wondering if anyone uses The Times "Finktank" predictions to find value in their bets, as they cover everything from asian handicaps to correct scores and simple results on their website (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/section/0,,7973,00.html) - remove this link if its a problem not advertising or anything mind. So has anyone used this at all, and more importantly has anyone found a profit using it? Cheers, Rob

[davidc]

Re: The Times "Finktank" predictions Hi Rob. This was used in conjuction with 2 other predictors last season. See thread: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=23043&highlight=betting+genius From memory I believe that there was some limited success. Merlin still (successfully) runs the Michael Wray system here: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=31767

[robsterling]

Re: The Times "Finktank" predictions Ah thanks I hadn't seen them, but I'm more looking to see if the Finktank can be used to find value comparing their result percentages to that off Betfair or the best odds at bookies. Rather than using it to find the correct results from strong percentages which I believe is used in these systems. Although I will have to give these a look as the latter is doing well! I may start my own system based on Finktank predictions but I'm trying to find which market, result, correct score, asian handicap, etc, is most effective before starting. Cheers, Rob

[robsterling]

Re: The Times "Finktank" predictions Quickly comparing prices for tomorrow's games, shows there is value in:

• Laying Everton
• Backing Bolton
• Backing Aston Villa
• Laying West Ham
• Laying Arsenal

This from comparing the Betfair home win, draw and away win percentages to those provided by Finktank. These backs and lays were ones I found there to be at least a 3% difference between Betfair back or lay percentages and the Finktank percentages. There is no really reasoning for the 3% I just decided on a cut off. I think I will monitor how this simple system works on paper, tweak it, and if I ever find a profitable method of using these predictions I'll post here. Any thoughts? Cheers, Rob

[davidc]

Re: The Times "Finktank" predictions With no history a paper trial is probably the best way. GL

[cavello]

Re: The Times "Finktank" predictions You could do an initial study by looking at the abovementioned forum and looking at the returns from only betting the matches which were indicated to be value based on the Times % figures.

[AndyR]

Re: The Times "Finktank" predictions Robsterling, the Finktank team ran a trial in 2002-3 taking the values where there was a >10% advantage in the predictors favour over the bookie to back teams, and found this to be profitable. A word of caution, though - they found that testing the data over an entire season showed a significantly negative performance over the second-half of the season. Nearly all the profit was made early on, presumably because the system was better at estimating the strengths of newly promoted/relegated sides, but the bookies caught up after January. The team at Warwick did not look at laying teams where the differences were favourable, it would be very interesting if you could look at laying teams for the second half of the season. Hell, if you can make a profit you could write an academic paper on it and get published! Good luck mate, I'll keep an eye on your progress Andy

[methuselah]

Re: The Times "Finktank" predictions You could try Under/Over 2.5 which looks interesting. I shall probably keep an eye on this myself.

[advanta]

Re: The Times "Finktank" predictions

Robsterling, the Finktank team ran a trial in 2002-3 taking the values where there was a >10% advantage in the predictors favour over the bookie to back teams, and found this to be profitable. A word of caution, though - they found that testing the data over an entire season showed a significantly negative performance over the second-half of the season. Nearly all the profit was made early on, presumably because the system was better at estimating the strengths of newly promoted/relegated sides, but the bookies caught up after January. The team at Warwick did not look at laying teams where the differences were favourable, it would be very interesting if you could look at laying teams for the second half of the season. Hell, if you can make a profit you could write an academic paper on it and get published! Good luck mate, I'll keep an eye on your progress Andy

As I recall, Finkelstein stated the system has been in profit every year at least 10%. Irritatingly this data is not available, and unverifiable. The criteria seemed to be the price of the "best high st bookies". In subsequent years he did not refer to any second-half of the season bias, which leads me to believe it might well have just been a statistical aberration. Additionally, Finkelstein's betting criteria is really weird. A 10% edge on a 20-1 shot is nothing like as a 10% edge on an even-money shot because of the risk, but were apparently treated equally. Given that relatively few bets meet Finkelstein's criteria, one longshot winner could seriously skew the results. I tested the system for a short while but lost a small amount of money. Finally, the Fink Tank is being constantly tweaked. So the system you are testing this year may not be the same as last year's.

[merlin]

Re: The Times "Finktank" predictions ..... this is not new Rob, as someone mentioned earlier in this thread, we tried a few systems, in particular, Kanga tried a combined threesome. He had Betting Genius,Michael Wray Spreadsheets, and The Times Newspaper Predictor which at that time was quite successful.Reference to these threads can be seen at :- Betting Genius Trial (page 13) in the systems and strategy archives,The Times Newspaper Predictor (page 11) and the Michael Wray Spreadsheets ( page 10).The latter is still fully operational on the current first page and has doubled the starting bank. Hope this helps.Cheers.Merlin.:ok

[Kanga]

Re: The Times "Finktank" predictions Rob, I found the times software to be the best of the three indicators listed above over all selections for a season - Also I found that laying the away team (when a strong home team selection was made) was the most profitable method - rarely did the away team win but the draw scuppered many selections which the lay method covers. Maybe a good formulae for a thread if anybody wants to start this going - the cut off we found best was > 48%

[laying larry]

Re: The Times "Finktank" predictions Hi kanga, I was very interested in this method and am looking into starting it up again if OK with yourself and merlin. What were the last set of setting were you using for the betting genius as if I recall they were different than the standard set of rules. Cheers LL :ok