Valiant23 Posted December 8, 2006 Share Posted December 8, 2006 Whenever I bet on NFL I generally use the handicap. If I bet on the underdog I will take the points except when the spread is 3 points or less, in which case I feel its better to take the money line odds on the underdog. Now I have started to paper trail an NFL system to see if it works with NBA too, and have them all mixed up together under the Contrary System thread. If you look in this post here; http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=649546&postcount=1 You will see Philadelphia were on a losing streak of 2 games ATS, and were underdogs for their game on Monday by 3pts. If I took the handicap (and the 3 points) then I would have had odds of 1.91, but I took the money line odds of 2.35. On more than one occasion in the contrary system the underdog has not only covered the spread, but won the game outright at considerably better odds. Starting with tonights NBA games I will paper trail this theory to see if it is one worth pursuing. Starting bank:100 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 8, 2006 Author Share Posted December 8, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Just to add the qualifying criteria is the same that I use in the contrary system. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted December 8, 2006 Share Posted December 8, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Good luck with this buddy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 8, 2006 Author Share Posted December 8, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Good luck with this buddy. I definitely think I'll need it with the NBA bit, but thanks mate. :ok If I start to lose money on the bigger 'dogs then I'll have to set a qualifying spread to allow them in here, and I'll probably take a range from the spread market of +7pts or less, so under this criteria the Clippers pick would have been excluded. All bets 1pt; Phoenix Suns have won 2 ATS and Boston Celtics have lost 4 so; Phoenix Suns @ Boston Celtics(+5) @ 1.9 San Antonio Spurs have won 2 ATS so; LA Clippers(+8.5) @ S.A. Spurs @1.92 Minnesota have won 2 ATS so; Utah Jazz (-1) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 1.94 Washington have won 2 and Philadelphia have lost 2 so; Washington Wizards @ Philly 76ers(+2.5) @ 1.92 Miami have won 6 ATS so; Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets(-9) @ 1.92 Boston Celtics (SU) @ 2.75 LA Clippers (SU) @ 4.2 Philly 76ers (SU) @ 2.3 3 bets @ 1pt per bet=3pts staked. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 9, 2006 Author Share Posted December 9, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark I definitely think I'll need it with the NBA bit, but thanks mate. :ok If I start to lose money on the bigger 'dogs then I'll have to set a qualifying spread to allow them in here, and I'll probably take a range from the spread market of +7pts or less, so under this criteria the Clippers pick would have been excluded. All bets 1pt; Boston Celtics (SU) @ 2.75 LA Clippers (SU) @ 4.2 Philly 76ers (SU) @ 2.3 3 bets @ 1pt per bet=3pts staked. :hope 3 losers 3 pts lost. :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 10, 2006 Author Share Posted December 10, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Portland have lost 2 ATS and Toronto have won 4 so; Portland TrailBlazers(+9) @ Toronto Raptors @ 1.83 Phoenix have won 3 ATS and Charlotte have lost 2 so; Phoenix Suns @ Charlotte Bobcats(+7) @ 1.9 Seattle have won 3 ATS so; Golden State(+3) @ Seattle Supersonics @ 1.9 San Antonio have won 3 ATS so; San Antonio Spurs @ LA Lakers (+3.5) @ 2.16 NBA Portland @ 4.19 Charlotte @ 3.8 Golden State @ 2.25 LA Lakers @ 2.62 4pts staked Tampa Bay have lost 2 ATS so; Atlanta Falcons @ TAmpa Bay Buccs(+3.5) @ 1.9 Minnesota have lost 6 ATS so; Minnesota Vikings(+2) @ Detroit Lions @ 1.9 Tampa Bay @ 2.66 Minnesota @ 2.1 Although Oakland are the underdog I wouldn't take this game without the points. 2pts staked 6 pts staked total. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark NBA Portland @ 4.19 :eek 4.19 pts returned Charlotte @ 3.8 :( Golden State @ 2.25 :( LA Lakers @ 2.62 :eek 2.62 pts returned 4pts staked Tampa Bay @ 2.66 :( Minnesota @ 2.1 :D 2.10 pts returned Although Oakland are the underdog I wouldn't take this game without the points. 2pts staked 6 pts staked total. :hope 8.91 pts returned :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Starting bank:100 Number of bets:9 Winning bets:3 Losing bets:6 Strike rate:33% Total staked:9 Profit (or Loss):-0.09 Current bank:99.91 Yield:-1% :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark NFL Chicago have won 4 ATS and St.Louis have lost 3 ATS so; Chicago Bears @ St. Loius Rams (+6.5) @ 1.95 NBA New Orleans have lost 2 ATS so; Cleveland @ New Orleans(+4) @ 1.9 St.Louis Rams @ 3.5 New Orleans Hornets @ 2.75 2pts staked :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 12, 2006 Author Share Posted December 12, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark St.Louis Rams @ 3.5 :( New Orleans Hornets @ 2.75 :D 2pts staked :hope 2.75pts returned. Starting bank:100 Number of bets:11 Winning bets:4 Losing bets:7 Strike rate:36% Total staked:11 Profit (or Loss):0.66 Current bank:100.66 Yield:6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 12, 2006 Author Share Posted December 12, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Golden State have won 2 in a row ATS so; Sacramento Kings(+2.5) @ Golden State Warriors @1.9 Sacramento Kings @ 2.3 1pt staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 13, 2006 Author Share Posted December 13, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Sacramento Kings @ 2.3 1pt staked. Lost. Starting bank:100 Number of bets:12 Winning bets:4 Losing bets:8 Strike rate:33% Total staked:12 Profit (or Loss):-0.34 Current bank:99.66 Yield:-2.83% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 13, 2006 Author Share Posted December 13, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Phoenix have won 5 ATS so; Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat(+11) @1.9 Charlotte have lost 3 ATS so; Charlotte Bobcats(+11) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 1.92 Detroit have won 2 and Indiana have lost 2 ATS so; Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers(+3.5) @ 1.92 Boston have won 2 ATS so; Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers(+3) @ 1.92 Milwaukee have lost 2 ATS so; Milwaukee Bucks(+7) @ New Jersey Nets @ 1.93 Atlanta have lost 3 ATS so; Atlanta Hawks(+7) @ New York Nicks @ 1.92 Miami Heat @6.77 Charlotte Bobcats @7.55 Indiana Pacers @2.3 Philadelphia 76ers @2.38 Milwaukee Bucks @3.61 Atlanta Hawks @3.7 6pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 14, 2006 Author Share Posted December 14, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Miami Heat @6.77 :( Charlotte Bobcats @7.55 :( Indiana Pacers @2.3 :D Philadelphia 76ers @2.38 :( Milwaukee Bucks @3.61 :( Atlanta Hawks @3.7 :( 6pts staked 2.3 pts returned Starting bank:100 Number of bets:18 Winning bets:5 Losing bets:13 Strike rate:27.78% Total staked:18 Profit (or Loss):-4.04 Current bank:95.96 Yield:-22.44% :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 14, 2006 Author Share Posted December 14, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark NFL San Francisco have lost 2 ATS so; SF 49ers(+10) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 1.9 NBA San Antonio have won 2 ATS so; San Antonio Spurs@ New Orleans Hornets(+7) @ 1.9 Golden State have won 3 ATS so; Houston Rockets(+4.5) @ Golden State Warriors @ 1.9 SF 49ers @ 5.00 New Orleans Hornets @ 3.65 Houston Rockets @ 2.66 3 x 1pt bets=3pts placed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 15, 2006 Author Share Posted December 15, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark SF 49ers @ 5.00 :dude New Orleans Hornets @ 3.65 :( Houston Rockets @ 2.66 :( 3 x 1pt bets=3pts placed 3pts placed 5 returned. Starting bank:100 Number of bets:21 Winning bets:6 Losing bets:15 Strike rate:28.57% Total staked:21 Profit (or Loss):-2.04 Current bank:97.96 Yield:-9.71% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 15, 2006 Author Share Posted December 15, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark New Jersey have won 2 ATS New Jersey Nets @ Toronto Raptors(+3) @ 1.92 Milwaukee have lost 3 and Chicago have won 2 Milwaukee Bucks(+7.5) @ Chicago Bulls @ 1.92 LA Lakers have won 3 ATS; Houston Rockets(+5.5) @ LA Lakers @ 1.9 8 x 10pt bets placed=80pts total. Toronto @ 2.27 Milwaukee @ 4.00 Houston @ 3.00 3x1pt bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 16, 2006 Author Share Posted December 16, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Toronto @ 2.27 :D Milwaukee @ 4.00 :( Houston @ 3.00 :( 3x1pt bets2.27pts returned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 16, 2006 Author Share Posted December 16, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Orlando have lost 6 ATS; Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic(+1.5) @ 1.91 Memphis have lost 5 ATS; Memphis Grizzlies(+6) @ Miami Heat @ 1.9 San Antonio have won 3 ATS Philadelphia 76ers(+16.5) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 1.9 Orlando @ 2.1 Memphis @ 3.1 (betfair) Philadelphia @ 16.5 (betfair) 3x 1pt staked. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 17, 2006 Author Share Posted December 17, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Orlando @ 2.1 :D Memphis @ 3.1 (betfair) :( Philadelphia @ 16.5 (betfair) :( 3x 1pt staked. :ok 2 losers 1 winner 2.10pts returned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 17, 2006 Author Share Posted December 17, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark NBA Indiana have won 2 ATS Utah Jazz(+2) @ Indiana Pacers @ 1.92 LA Clippers have lost 3 ATS Houston Rockets @ LA Clippers(+1.5) @ 1.8 Seattle have lost 2 ATS Seattle Supersonics(+6.5) @ Detroit Pistons @ 1.9 LA Lakers have won 5 ATS Washington Wizards(+5) @ LA Lakers @ 2.02 NFL Buffalo have won 6 ATS Miami Dolphins(+1) @ Buffalo Bills @ 1.92 New Orleans have won 3 ATS Washington Redskins(+9.5) @ New Orleans Saints @ 2.00 Tampa have lost 3 and Chicago have won 5 ATS Tamps Bay Buccaneers(+13.5) @ Chicago Bears @ 1.91 Kansas City have lost 2 ATS Kansas City Chiefs(+8.5) @ San Diego Chargers @ 1.91 NBA Utah Jazz @ 2.2 LA Clippers @ 1.83 Seattle Supersonics @ 3.3 Washington Wizards @ 3.02 NFL Miami Dolphins @ 2.00 Washington Redskins @ 5.04 Tamps Bay Buccaneers @ 8.5 Kansas City Chiefs @ 4.5 8x 1pt bets :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bamse81 Posted December 17, 2006 Share Posted December 17, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Good luck V. :hope :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 17, 2006 Author Share Posted December 17, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Thanks Bamse! :ok I realise it's data mining but I hope to use it at the end of the nba season to see if there are any obvious trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 18, 2006 Author Share Posted December 18, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark NBA Utah Jazz @ 2.2 :D LA Clippers @ 1.83 :( Seattle Supersonics @ 3.3 :( Washington Wizards @ 3.02 :D NFL Miami Dolphins @ 2.00 :( Washington Redskins @ 5.04 :D Tamps Bay Buccaneers @ 8.5 :(...nearly!! Kansas City Chiefs @ 4.5 :( 8x 1pt bets :hope 3winners and 5 losers. 10.26pts returned :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 18, 2006 Author Share Posted December 18, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark As of 15/12; Starting bank:100 Number of bets:21 Winning bets:6 Losing bets:15 Strike rate:28.57% Total staked:21 Profit (or Loss):-2.04 Current bank:97.96 Yield:-9.71% 15/12 3x1pt bets 2 losers 1 winner 2.27pts returned 16/12 3x 1pt staked. 2 losers 1 winner 2.10pts returned. 17/12 8x 1pt bets 5 losers. 3 winners 10.26pts returned Summary 14pts staked 9 losers 5 winners 14.73pts returned Starting bank:100 Number of bets:35 Winning bets:11 Losing bets:24 Strike rate:31.43% Total staked:35 Profit (or Loss):-1.31 Current bank:98.69 Yield:-3.74% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 18, 2006 Author Share Posted December 18, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark New York have lost 2 ATS Utah Jazz @ New York Nicks(+7.5) @ 1.95 New Orleans have lost 2 ATS New Orleans Hornets(+8) @ Miami Heat @ 1.9 NY Nicks @ 4.1 (Betfair) NO Hornets @ 3.95 2x1pt bets :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 19, 2006 Author Share Posted December 19, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark NY Nicks @ 4.1 (Betfair) NO Hornets @ 3.95 2x1pt bets :hope New Orleans lost by 2 :( NY won by 1 :D 4.1 pts returned Starting bank:100 Number of bets:37 Winning bets:12 Losing bets:25 Strike rate:34.28% Total staked:37 Profit (or Loss):0.79 Current bank:100.79 Yield:2.14% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 20, 2006 Author Share Posted December 20, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Golden State have lost 2 and Boston have won 5 Golden State Warriors(+1.5) @ Boston Celtics @ 2.00 Milwaukee have won 2 ATS Miami Heat (+3) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 1.9 Dallas have won 2 ATS Dallas Mavericks @ Seatlle Supersonics(+6.5) @ 1.95 Golden State @ 2.10 Miami Heat @ 2.35 Seattle Supersonics @ 3.5 3x1pt bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 21, 2006 Author Share Posted December 21, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark Golden State @ 2.10 :D Miami Heat @ 2.35 :( Seattle Supersonics @ 3.5 :( 3x1pt bets 1 winner 2 losers 3pts staked 2.10 returned Starting bank:100 Number of bets:40 Winning bets:13 Losing bets:27 Strike rate:32.50% Total staked:40 Profit (or Loss):-0.11 Current bank:99.89 Yield:-0.275% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 21, 2006 Author Share Posted December 21, 2006 Re: A 'dog Who's Bite is Worse Than It's Bark NFL Green Bay have won 2 ATS Minnesota Vikings(+3) @ GB Packers 2.01 Minnesota @ 2.75 1pt staked. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.