SniffTheGlove Posted January 5, 2007 Author Share Posted January 5, 2007 Re: Home Wins STG, Whats the rating for the Ath Madrid V Gimnastic game? In light of what I posted above it'd be interesting. DateMSAccess,HomeTeam,AwayTeam,HomeTeamOWDLPtsAve,AwayTeamOWDLPtsAve, OWDLPtsPrediction 06/01/2007,Ath Madrid,Gimnastic,1.75,0.5,H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 8, 2007 Author Share Posted January 8, 2007 Re: Home Wins Here are my system predictions for 6th Jan (1) 06-Jan-2007 Ath Madrid - Gimnastic Home :loon (2) 06-Jan-2007 Dag and Red - Woking Home :nana (3) 06-Jan-2007 Gravesend - Halifax Home Match Abandoned after 61 minutes so I have removed the match from my predictions database. (4) 06-Jan-2007 Wycombe - Rochdale Home :loon Stats for the above matches are... Matches Predicted: 3 Home Predictions that turned out to be correct: 1 Strike Rate: 33.33% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Draws): 2 Strike Rate: 66.67% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Aways): 0 Strike Rate: 0.00% Total Home Goals Scored: 4 Total Away Goals Scored: 3 Under/Over 2.5: 2.33 Average Score: 1.33-1.00 Global stats for all my system predicted matches are.. Matches Predicted: 97 Home Predictions that turned out to be correct: 66 Strike Rate: 68.04% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Draws): 27 Strike Rate: 27.84% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Aways): 4 Strike Rate: 4.12% Total Home Goals Scored: 200 Total Away Goals Scored: 70 Under/Over 2.5: 2.78 Average Score: 2.06-0.72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 10, 2007 Author Share Posted January 10, 2007 Re: Home Wins Here are my system predications for 12th - 15th Jan 2007 (1) 15-Jan-2007 Walsall - Grimsby Home (2) 14-Jan-2007 Murcia - Vecindario Home (3) 14-Jan-2007 Olympiakos - Panionios Home (4) 14-Jan-2007 Sevilla - Mallorca Home (5) 13-Jan-2007 Birmingham - Leeds Home (6) 13-Jan-2007 Bologna - Treviso Home (7) 13-Jan-2007 Cardiff - Southend Home (8) 13-Jan-2007 Chelsea - Wigan Home (9) 13-Jan-2007 East Fife - East Stirling Home (10) 13-Jan-2007 Falkirk - Dunfermline Home (11) 13-Jan-2007 Lincoln - Shrewsbury Home (12) 13-Jan-2007 Man United - Aston Villa Home (13) 13-Jan-2007 Morton - Alloa Home (14) 13-Jan-2007 Napoli - Verona Home (15) 13-Jan-2007 Stenhousemuir - Elgin Home (16) 13-Jan-2007 Stirling - Raith Rvs Home (17) 13-Jan-2007 Swindon - Wrexham Home (18) 12-Jan-2007 Dijon - Istres Home (19) 12-Jan-2007 Metz - Reims Home With my current run of luck, I expect 25% of these to be at least a draw, but which ones I don't know. However I hope that this will start to come back into form now that the hangovers from Xmas/New Year and now long distant memories. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 15, 2007 Author Share Posted January 15, 2007 Re: Home Wins Here are my system predications for 12th - 15th Jan 2007 (2) 14-Jan-2007 Murcia - Vecindario :nana (3) 14-Jan-2007 Olympiakos - Panionios :nana (4) 14-Jan-2007 Sevilla - Mallorca Away :wall (5) 13-Jan-2007 Birmingham - Leeds Postponed, following a pitch inspection. I will remove the match from my database (6) 13-Jan-2007 Bologna - Treviso Draw :loon (7) 13-Jan-2007 Cardiff - Southend Away :wall (8) 13-Jan-2007 Chelsea - Wigan :nana (9) 13-Jan-2007 East Fife - East Stirling Away :wall (10) 13-Jan-2007 Falkirk - Dunfermline :nana (11) 13-Jan-2007 Lincoln - Shrewsbury Draw :loon (12) 13-Jan-2007 Man United - Aston Villa :nana (13) 13-Jan-2007 Morton - Alloa :nana (14) 13-Jan-2007 Napoli - Verona :nana (15) 13-Jan-2007 Stenhousemuir - Elgin :nana (16) 13-Jan-2007 Stirling - Raith Rvs Away :wall (17) 13-Jan-2007 Swindon - Wrexham :nana (18) 12-Jan-2007 Dijon - Istres :nana (19) 12-Jan-2007 Metz - Reims Draw :loon With my current run of luck, I expect 25% of these to be at least a draw, but which ones I don't know. However I hope that this will start to come back into form now that the hangovers from Xmas/New Year and now long distant memories. :hope I still have 15th Jan 2007 (1) 15-Jan-2007 Walsall - Grimsby Home waiting from my selections. Stats for the above matches... Matches Predicted: 17 Home Predictions that turned out to be correct: 10 Strike Rate: 58.82% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Draws): 3 Strike Rate: 17.65% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Aways): 4 Strike Rate: 23.53% Total Home Goals Scored: 26 Total Away Goals Scored: 17 Under/Over 2.5: 2.53 Average Score: 1.53-1.00 Global stats for all my system predicted matches are.. Matches Predicted: 114 Home Predictions that turned out to be correct: 76 Strike Rate: 66.67% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Draws): 30 Strike Rate: 26.32% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Aways): 8 Strike Rate: 7.02% Total Home Goals Scored: 226 Total Away Goals Scored: 87 Under/Over 2.5: 2.75 Average Score: 1.98-0.76 Draw and Aways have crept in here reducing my strike rate. I am going to rename my current system as "System A" for System Alpha, and will now tweak the code to produce "System B". System B will take the prediction that System A produce and then further tweak them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 16, 2007 Author Share Posted January 16, 2007 Re: Home Wins Here are my system predications for 12th - 15th Jan 2007 (1) 15-Jan-2007 Walsall - Grimsby Home :nana I have started to refine my original system. Full details are on my site but System B is still a work in progress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted January 16, 2007 Share Posted January 16, 2007 Re: Home Wins Excellent site Sniff. I still think there is value on your selections with an AH of -1.0 rather than -1.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 19, 2007 Author Share Posted January 19, 2007 Re: Home Wins I have been running back tests on my selections to produce a refined version of my predictions. System A is the original system that this thread is based on. System B takes the output of System A, then looks at the last match of each team. It makes the decision based on if the Home team won it's last match (either home or away) and the Away team lost it's last Away match. This has reduced the quantity of picks but does increase the Strike Rate. Using all my System A data (currently a 67.83% strike rate) the strike rate increases to 78.38%. Next course of action over the next couple of weeks is to backtest over several years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 19, 2007 Author Share Posted January 19, 2007 Re: Home Wins Using my System B predictions, I have placed the following at Bet365. Wow my first online bet :clap just hope that I don't end up :cry Albion @ 1.50 Celtic @ 1.12 Crawley Town @ 1.72 Notts County @ 1.72 Wycombe @ 1.57 AEK Athens @ 1.20 Standard Liege @ 1.30 Four-Folds, 35 bets * £0.20 Seven-Folds, 1 bet * £1.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 21, 2007 Author Share Posted January 21, 2007 Re: Home Wins Using my System B predictions, I have placed the following at Bet365. Wow my first online bet :clap just hope that I don't end up :cry Albion @ 1.50 :nana Celtic @ 1.12 :nana Crawley Town @ 1.72 :nana Notts County @ 1.72 :nana Wycombe @ 1.57 :loon AEK Athens @ 1.20 :nana Standard Liege @ 1.30 :nana Four-Folds, 35 bets * £0.20 Seven-Folds, 1 bet * £1.00 My first bet as above, total staked was £8 and now in profit by £4.13 Bet Type No of Bets Unit Stake Stake To Win Returns Four-Folds 35 0.20 7.00 23.19 12.13 Seven-Folds 1 1.00 1.00 11.34 0.00 I will start a new thread For System B and my betting, whilst I think I will stop this thread now as I shall not be actively using it, unless anyone here has a good reason for me to continue. Anyway the data/predictions etc for System will still be on my website. I am up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted May 17, 2007 Author Share Posted May 17, 2007 Re: Home Wins It's been a few months since posting here, though I still read it everyday. Now that the footy season is near to it's end I thought I would post my thoughts on my Home Wins system and detail how the decisions were made. All records etc started on the 24th November 2006 and run to as far as today 17th May 2007. System A predicted 688 matches and the final results are Home Predictions that turned out to be correct: 448 Strike Rate: 65.12% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Draws): 134 Strike Rate: 19.48% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Aways): 106 Strike Rate: 15.41% System B predicted 174 matches and the final results are Home Predictions that turned out to be correct: 115 Strike Rate: 66.09% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Draws): 33 Strike Rate: 18.97% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Aways): 26 Strike Rate: 14.94% System A predictions were generated via home brew software. It used data from "football data" and it would take the last six games played of each team and allocate 100pts for a win and 10pts for a draw. The difference in points would be use, if the home difference was greater than 500 then that team is selected. System B predictions take System A predictions as the source and then only choose the matches where the home team actually won their last match and the away team actually lost the last match. It is quite surprising that after all these months the two strike rates were very close to each other now we are near the end of the seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: Home Wins Welcome back SniffTheGlove - allbeit if you are only posting and have actually been hanging around. What does the profitability of your system look like? How are you intending to improve it for next season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted May 18, 2007 Author Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: Home Wins Welcome back SniffTheGlove - allbeit if you are only posting and have actually been hanging around. Been still reading all the boards. What does the profitability of your system look like? For System A the profitability as of today is... Matches Predicted: 688 Home Predictions that turned out to be correct: 448 Strike Rate: 65.12% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Draws): 134 Strike Rate: 19.48% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Aways): 106 Strike Rate: 15.41% Total Home Goals Scored: 1261 Total Away Goals Scored: 556 Under/Over 2.5: 2.64 Average Score: 1.83-0.81 Starting Bank: 100 Level Stake Unit: 1 Total Staked (Units): 688 Total Won (Units): 645.99 Current Bank: 57.99 ROI: -42.01% POT(Yield): -6.11% http://www.frp.arrowsmith.uk.com/index.php?page=8# For System B the profitability as of today is... Matches Predicted: 174 Home Predictions that turned out to be correct: 115 Strike Rate: 66.09% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Draws): 33 Strike Rate: 18.97% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Aways): 26 Strike Rate: 14.94% Total Home Goals Scored: 334 Total Away Goals Scored: 138 Under/Over 2.5: 2.71 Average Score: 1.92-0.79 Starting Bank: 100 Level Stake Unit: 1 Total Staked (Units): 174 Total Won (Units): 159.87 Current Bank: 85.87 ROI: -14.13% POT(Yield): -8.12% http://www.frp.arrowsmith.uk.com/index.php?page=25 How are you intending to improve it for next season? Now this is a hard question. Do I try to improve or try something else. I will be working over the next few months on something. I would not mind the SR above but if I could only get better odds so that a profit could be found on level stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted May 18, 2007 Share Posted May 18, 2007 Re: Home Wins So you are quite close to something - you just need to flip it into the black - especially system b. Have you tried using the max odds? As opposed to only Bet365 - this might get you the extra 15% you need to get into the black. Other than that - you'll need to find the patterns that drive the matches you lost - this will in future improve your strike rate whilst not affecting the average odds materially.....one would hope. What other things have you got in the pipeline? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted May 19, 2007 Author Share Posted May 19, 2007 Re: Home Wins So you are quite close to something - you just need to flip it into the black - especially system b. Have you tried using the max odds? As opposed to only Bet365 - this might get you the extra 15% you need to get into the black. Other than that - you'll need to find the patterns that drive the matches you lost - this will in future improve your strike rate whilst not affecting the average odds materially.....one would hope. What other things have you got in the pipeline? Thanks Plopplop :) I only used Bet365 as the dataset I get from Football Data has their odds as part of the data, and also I can keep an accurate history of odds if they are all from the same bookie. I could use other bookies but lacking in cash (due to being off work near permanently) leaves me with very little cash to splash around especially when needing to open online accounts with a reasonable deposit. Also the wife will moan and :spank me. So keeping it to one bookie is easier for me at the moment. I am hoping to.. Run through all the data taking (in this case Bet365) the odds and cross checking the average results from each match to find some sort of correlation. Run through all the data looking at the results and working if their are any value in goals scored in relation to the teams current form. For example Top of league team at home to bottom of league team. Would this match produce a high scoring match or a low scoring match and then work out it's value and then look at it's position within the HOME betting market, the UNDERS betting market, the OVERS betting market etc. A lot of work but I have time to do it but it's the inclination that I struggle with. So easy to get depressed it what you were working on looks good, back testing is good but the moment you commit to the strategy then everything goes tits up. I will still also tweak my System A with System B if I can narrow down the results a bit better. A SR of 66% is quite good and if the odds were over 2 then level staking would be in profit (hopefully) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted October 18, 2007 Author Share Posted October 18, 2007 Re: Home Wins I can not believe that another year has passed, and even after my last post to plopplop I have done nothing to tweak my systems so they have just started again on my site as enough matches are now starting to match the minimum requirements for picking. I need to do what I said to PlopPlop and do more work but my health is not to good and I have been tide up writing some rocketry flight analysis software for my other hobby and this has been really time consuming but I am getting near to completion that so I can then bounce back with FRP. My conclusions from last year will be between Mid-November and March'ish time will be the peak form for teams (apart from the Xmas/New Year games which always seem to go against form). I will try to continue posting here the predictions and results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 18, 2007 Share Posted October 18, 2007 Re: Home Wins Welcome back Sniff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted October 20, 2007 Author Share Posted October 20, 2007 Re: Home Wins Welcome back Sniff Thanks Barrhead, how is your rising floor going? Anyway, on to this weekend's home tips with odds coming from Bet365 20-Oct-2007 Arsenal - Bolton 1.25 20-Oct-2007 Aldershot - Halifax 1.57 20-Oct-2007 Crawley Town - Stafford Rangers 1.5 20-Oct-2007 Forest Green - Farsley 1.5 21-Oct-2007 Nancy - Sochaux 1.61 21-Oct-2007 Malaga - Xerez 1.57 21-Oct-2007 Galatasaray - Ankaraspor 1.16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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