An Even Contest

[Crouch Potato]

A couple of results recently have drawn my attention to a possibly profitable pattern. That is, backing the draw involving a team who has a relatively high percentage of draws in their respective fixture type (by that i mean either home games or away games). For instance, if a team is 1-5-1 on the road, then I'd back a draw when they play away. A few such cases occur, so because of this, and the fact that I'm a greedy bastard, we'll play this mainly in perms, namely 7 selections put together in a Super Heinz (120 bets). Starting Bank will be 575 units and each Super Heinz will be taken for a quarter unit (total stake of 30 units). Starting Bank: 575 Here are Sunday's selections - Highlighted are the team(s) with a dominant draw ratio for a home(away) fixture. In square brackets are the results for the particular team in this seasons home(away games)

1	20/11/2006	Espanyol [1-3-1] v Athletic Bilbao [1-3-1] (Full Time Result)	Draw	3.10	None	To Run
2	19/11/2006	Massese [0-4-1] v Grosseto [0-3-2] (Full Time Result)	Draw	2.60	None	To Run
3	20/11/2006	Quilmes [1-2-5] v Banfield [1-4-2] (Full Time Result)	Draw	3.20	None	To Run
4	20/11/2006	Randers FC [4-2-2] v Brondby [0-5-3] (Full Time Result)	Draw	3.40	None	To Run
5	20/11/2006	LKS Lodz [3-4-0] v Wisla Krakow [0-6-0] (Full Time Result)	Draw	3.10	None	To Run
6	19/11/2006	Ankaraspor [1-5-0] v Gaziantepspor [0-3-3] (Full Time Result)	Draw	3.25	None	To Run
7	20/11/2006	Metalist Kharkiv [4-2-0] v Dnipro [2-4-0] (Full Time Result)	Draw	2.80	None	To Run

Obviously it's still relatively early in the season, so perhaps some of these stats may be a little distorted, but I feel enough games have now been played to give this idea a try :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: An Even Contest Not much to say except that was a horrible start! Starting Bank: 575 Current Bank: 545 Staked: 30 Returned: 0 P/L: -30

[Crouch Potato]

Re: An Even Contest This weeks Super Heinz:

1	28/11/2006	Frosinone v Mantova (Full Time Result)	Draw	2.62	None	To Run
2	25/11/2006	Pro Sesto v Venezia (Full Time Result)	Draw	2.60	None	To Run
3	26/11/2006	Doncaster v Brighton (Full Time Result)	Draw	3.20	None	To Run
4	27/11/2006	Le Mans v Lens (Full Time Result)	Draw	2.87	None	To Run
5	27/11/2006	Empoli v Cagliari (Full Time Result)	Draw	2.87	None	To Run
6	25/11/2006	Denizlispor v Ankaraspor (Full Time Result)	Draw	3.20	None	To Run
7	26/11/2006	Krylia Sovetov v Spartak Moscow (Full Time Result)	Draw	2.90	None	To Run

Stake: 30 New Balance: 515

[Crouch Potato]

Re: An Even Contest 3 of the 7 games ended in a draw (all 1-1), however we are still 15pts down on the weekend. To be honest, I think this is a poor way to go about following the draw stats, so for the time being, consider this hunt suspended. Might do a 1 goal or more hunt, a bet I've been doing for quite a while now!